Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Mafia PT (over)

[Hoopla]

I don't think protecting lilith would be believable; in addition to her being fairly widely scumread and not likely to die, people might suspect a gambit involving both of us.

I would not count on skitter as an execution. I'd much rather try to pocket her as she'll be someone very valuable to have on my side.

yes, but if you or i claim doc, the game needs to be won on D5 or D6, and if one of us gets elim'd on D4 (possibly me if you claim doc D4), your doc claim won't last until D7.

in 3:6 there are too many prob-town slots that a doc-claim on a mis-elim possibility is risky.

[Something_Smart]

davesaz - not particularly townread, not particularly influential. Possibly VT but could be a PR.
Best Bird - possibly neighborizer? He posted a gif that he's used to crumb fruit vendor before, so I could see it being a neighborizer crumb here.
skitter30 - harms a potential doc claim, but I think an explanation could be given. Killing skitter probably helps lilith but maybe hurts me a bit because skitter is strongly defending me.
petapan - seems like mostly a non-entity. Maybe that means higher than average PR equity... though I'm not convinced we even want to kill PR's here. Given we have informed, it seems likely that a scum goon would claim the role they are informed of, so PR claims look somewhat suspicious.
Menalque - VT claim, fairly townread but his reads are truly awful. He is capable of reevaluating though, so I wouldn't rule it out completely.
Infinity 324 - somewhat scummy, but I think getting this execution would be fairly hard.
Not_Mafia - lol

My initial shortlist is {skitter, Menalque, Infinity}. Killing a strong player has the advantage of making it look less weird that lilith didn't die.

[Hoopla]

hmm, i'm leaning towards a skitter kill, but i do wonder if we go for a low profile kill if things will turn on skitter/menalque.

we should be expecting town to massclaim tomorrow. i'll think about this game more deeply in the morning;)

[Something_Smart]

So I think the game plan here is: one of us claims doc, we try to organize the plan where lilith flips a coin for whether to save that person, and then we no-kill N4 and go for the win on D5.

If I claim doc, then:
- I'm better protected against the redirector witch-hunt when people realize scum took that slot and lied about it
- It will be more believable that I was able to get doc
- I think I played more in line with being a doc than you did
- People will probably be more paranoid of an epic gambit with me/lilith because we know each other so well

If you claim doc, then:
- You might be suspected of using the informed fakeclaim because you getting the doc is unlikely
- You have a good excuse for why you shouldn't be executed D4
- If you survive D4, then lilith can claim to have jailed you N4 which should clear you

[Something_Smart]

I'm leaning toward you claiming it. Yeah it looks weird but I think I can pretty strongly push the argument that you are likely scum but it benefits us to leave you alive for at least one day because you will probably be forced to out yourself, and then the no-kill on N4 will clear you.

[lilith2013]

I feel like it’s better if you claim it? Our endgame is with you, probably not me or hoopla, and I’m fully expecting to not live past tomorrow. I think we do whatever (in terms of kill/jk/claim/etc) gives you the best shot at endgaming.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think you necessarily have a high chance of dying if we kill skitter? Menalque will be the loudest voice left and he townreads you.

[Something_Smart]

Besides, if we want to plan for the contingency where I'm the last scum alive, then I can't claim doctor because it will be so sketchy that I lived that long.

[Hoopla]

Besides, if we want to plan for the contingency where I'm the last scum alive, then I can't claim doctor because it will be so sketchy that I lived that long.

yes, if we envisage SS being the last scum alive, he needs to claim VT and carry the win for us. a doc claim won't live beyond D5.

[Hoopla]

and if SS is claiming VT, he needs more protection from a possible redirector witch-hunt. TGP claimed VT/cop, so all players above TGP in the draft are the possible fakeclaiming cops (davesaz, skitter, infinity, peta, menalque, N_M). actually, that's a fair few players it could be. some are bound to be VT, so that's enough coverage. besides, even a role like UB could be a scum-fakeclaim if nobody below picked it and got VT. if scum knew UB was unclaimed through informed, this is another role that could be scummy.

[Hoopla]

neighbouriser will essentially be confirmed town, so i'd almost rather shoot for that instead since we seemingly have it narrowed down to dave or B_B. we won't have any NK's to pick off confirmed townies, so it feels more important to do this now, especially if i'm going to be pseudo-confirming someone with my N1 save.

[Hoopla]

the weak point of me claiming doctor (which i'm sure menalque/skitter will pick up on) is that i was pretty in favour of eliminating menalque on D2 based on lilith's JK claim. so i need to think of reasonable arguments as to why i played that way:

i suppose i could argue it was 50/50 between me saving the kill or menalque being JK'ed and that i thought he was more likely the killer. and that way if i was wrong, i'd have a confirmed innocent to keep protecting.

going by my play, SS probably looks like my most logical N1 target, because i've been throwing shade at skitter recently. doesn't make a lot of sense for me to do that if she's my N1 target.

[Hoopla]

an interesting angle we could go for during massclaim is to keep the doctor unclaimed. do a massclaim minus doctor claim (doc just claims VT), as the doc will be the key to the setup. if we turn up one or two prob or conf-inno players, the doc will be able to continue saving these slots from behind-the-scenes.

then, if the doc is about the get elim'd, the doc can claim. the town gets all the benefits of the doc, without risking anything.

and from our perspective, it may allow us to keep the doc unclaimed one more phase, which keeps our options open until D5.

[Hoopla]

neighbouriser will essentially be confirmed town, so i'd almost rather shoot for that instead since we seemingly have it narrowed down to dave or B_B. we won't have any NK's to pick off confirmed townies, so it feels more important to do this now, especially if i'm going to be pseudo-confirming someone with my N1 save.

thinking about it more, i think we should definitely try and hit the neighbouriser. it's a left-field kill that will throw more shade on the skitter/menalque dynamic. there are still players like dave who want menalque killed from a mechanical-perspective.

and if we hit the neighbouriser, we can really put pressure on the UB slot, arguing that scum must have a role cop to hit the vengeful/neighbouriser slots back-to-back while ignoring expected NK slots.

[Hoopla]

actually, going by my big NK/doc-theorising post 2819, it looks like i soft-claimed a skitter save:

going by menalque's play, i don't think him being blocked-scum is as likely as a doc-save occurring elsewhere (maybe on skitter?)

so, i probably need to be claiming a N1 save on skitter, which then creates a new problem as to why i was interrogating her on D3?

so, my answer to that is probably something along the lines of i was still unsure if i actually made the save or not, and if i didn't there's a good chance it was skitter who would have wanted to NK menalque. so i needed to suss her out.

or maybe that i realised on D3 that my role was going to be crucial in the endgame, and that i should distance a little from *knowing* that skitter was probably the NK, to prevent scum from being able to successfully NK me.

[Hoopla]

@the worst

if we no-kill N4, then town no-elims D5, then we no-kill N5, are town forced to elim on D6 at the risk of triggering a happily-ever-after clause?

do you have such a clause to settle no-elim/no-NK'ing chains?

[lilith2013]

why are dave and bb likely to be neighborizers? I don’t really see either of them townreading dunn yesterday and dunn would have been their n2 target.

[Hoopla]

why are dave and bb likely to be neighborizers? I don’t really see either of them townreading dunn yesterday and dunn would have been their n2 target.

by process of elimination in this post.

peta ruled himself out as he posted something re: neighbouriser which made it sound like it wasn't him.

[lilith2013]

right sorry my reading comprehension is close to 0 atm.

do you want to shoot dave and have me jk bb?

[lilith2013]

tbh dave saying “lilith cannot be fakeclaiming JK” makes me think he went for that slot too and therefore is a VT.

[Hoopla]

tbh dave saying “lilith cannot be fakeclaiming JK” makes me think he went for that slot too and therefore is a VT.

this is a good point.

i'd rather not NK dave because if he isn't the neighbouriser, he's a pretty solid mis-elim target, so we should keep that slot open.

so gamble on a BB kill?

[Something_Smart]

I still feel like the best thing we can do is kill skitter. I sincerely doubt that we ever get a skitter execution so it's as good as killing a conftown, and her reads are close enough to be potentially dangerous.

[lilith2013]

I’m fine with that.

[Hoopla]

I still feel like the best thing we can do is kill skitter. I sincerely doubt that we ever get a skitter execution so it's as good as killing a conftown, and her reads are close enough to be potentially dangerous.

perhaps i'm overestimating the "why-are-you-still-alive" paranoia that will fall skitter's way if she's still alive, but i really think one more phase of her alive will turn the town on her.

but it's kind of a sunk-cost fallacy gamble so i won't fight you on this.

[Hoopla]

it means my actions need to be:

skitter N1
lilith N2
lilith N3

which i think i can sell.

who would lilith JK tonight?