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Post Post #8475 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:16 am

Post by MURDERCAT »

:D
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Post Post #8476 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:27 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 8474, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:It would be incredibly selfish of me to put my own fears and anxiety over what the collective team wants just because I happened to live for longer.

I must finish the job - I would be unable to handle the consequences of deviating from the plan and losing.
You're supposed to shoot who you think has the most likely chance of being scum. I would be upset with someone who is unwilling to do what they thought had the best chance of winning just because I (as a dead person) had suspected someone else.

I am aware that not everyone thinks like that. You are right that it would be unfun to be berated by the dead players if you avoid their wishes get it wrong. If we keep it as Noraa/Bell, then we collectively lost, except maybe UNOwen if Noraa is scum and Noraa if Bell is scum. So perhaps we should do that, but I don't think it's right to go against what you think in favor of the dead, and I don't think it's selfish to do so, either.

I am very impressed by Murder's handling of the late game if scum. His early to midgame pushes are very dodgy in hindsight from what I skimmed, though.

Need to get work done, need to stop posting..
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Post Post #8477 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:33 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I also suspect MC very heavily so it fits
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It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

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Post Post #8478 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:34 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I do not fear the beratement of others

I fear myself only.
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That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
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Post Post #8479 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:25 am

Post by Bell »

Aight, gunna focus here this game needs to die with prejudice.
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Post Post #8480 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by Bell »

So far,
Zdenek. Votes Pookie, Gives no reason. Don't see a reason it can't be early distancing whatsoever.

Pookie: Vague shade. . Not Vague shade. Irony posting? Not great. This angle really makes no sense. I have no business coaching anyone on anything.

ShellyC being shelly. Giving a town read too early to Zdenek. # Not sure if Shelly does this post to a partner.

Murdercat comes in and votes Isis. I can see what Fidget means. #. Huh. Zdenek did the same thing. Used it and Hopkirk town read for it. 64: Yeet Shellyc, but a joke. Not clear what that would mean here. : Lied, control expectations as scum or just....Eh? Why does town murder say this at all?# Does murder prefer rolling town to scum?

Noraa: Good vote. #. I'm not sure if a bus vote. It sort of doesn't sound like one. Reason 3) is the one that could be a little too accurate to be tvs. But the other two point toward tvs. 83. Why. Why, WHY? Sounds fair. : I don't know how coached didn't pass into her lexicon.

Nope. I burnt out. I need to relax for a little. After interview jitters sigh.
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Post Post #8481 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:09 pm

Post by MURDERCAT »

In post 8480, Bell wrote:110: Lied, control expectations as scum or just....Eh? Why does town murder say this at all?
It's the truth, I wanted to play more casually :lol:
1000 posts later...
In post 8480, Bell wrote:114: Does murder prefer rolling town to scum?
Depends, I generally find town more satisfying but I have been itching for a scum game.
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Post Post #8482 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:12 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8480, Bell wrote:Why. Why, WHY?
????????
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Post Post #8483 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:13 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8480, Bell wrote:Reason 3) is the one that could be a little too accurate to be tvs. But the other two point toward tvs. 83.
I dont understand why :/
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Post Post #8484 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:14 pm

Post by MURDERCAT »

FWIW, my approach (assuming anyone is actually interested in what I have to say at the moment) would be to look for things that would
never
be said or done by each person for a particular alignment. Can you find something that I would have
never
said or done as town? Can you find something that I would have
never
said or done as scum? That feels more effective at this point.

I can do this if you want me to town case myself or scum case someone else, but someone has to actually ask me for it because I don't want to appear like I am trying to manipulate the conversation.
I do think this game is coming down to whether or not Pooky is scum so that's probably what I would want to focus on.
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Post Post #8485 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:14 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8480, Bell wrote:I don't know how coached didn't pass into her lexicon.
confuzzled again.
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Post Post #8486 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:17 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I am not scum but I am happy to accept the scroll if you all think I am the most capable scum player here as that is quite flattering.
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That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

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Post Post #8487 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:17 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8484, MURDERCAT wrote:FWIW, my approach (assuming anyone is actually interested in what I have to say at the moment) would be to look for things that would
never
be said or done by each person for a particular alignment. Can you find something that I would have
never
said or done as town? Can you find something that I would have
never
said or done as scum? That feels more effective at this point.

I can do this if you want me to town case myself or scum case someone else, but someone has to actually ask me for it because I don't want to appear like I am trying to manipulate the conversation.
I do think this game is coming down to whether or not Pooky is scum so that's probably what I would want to focus on.
Do it for Bell and Pooky if you have time. You could do me as well.

Whatever you have time for.
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Post Post #8488 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:19 pm

Post by MURDERCAT »

Scum or town cases? Or general commentary?
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Post Post #8489 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:22 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8488, MURDERCAT wrote:Scum or town cases? Or general commentary?
whichever starts forming while ur skimming. Dont force a town or scum case out. Just whatever starts forming.
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Post Post #8490 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:23 pm

Post by MURDERCAT »

Mmk I will
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Post Post #8491 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:24 pm

Post by MURDERCAT »

In post 8309, Hectic wrote: Timer: (expired on 2020-11-19 12:55:30)
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Post Post #8492 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:40 pm

Post by Bell »

In post 8485, Noraa wrote:
In post 8480, Bell wrote:I don't know how coached didn't pass into her lexicon.
confuzzled again.
You asked why Pooky thought you were being coached or put up a question mark like you didn't know what he was talking about.
But contextually, being coached means scum is coaching you in their private thread. It shouldn't be that difficult to understand.
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Post Post #8493 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:15 pm

Post by Bell »

133, 134, and 135 are quite complex. Rather I've never seen that before. So that's cool I guess. No actual comment, I can't tell whose scum in those posts. But you a both suck. :P

Is this another a little too accurate to be town posts? /:

# Not sure why town Noraa isn't omgussing here. Her read on Pooky doesn't make sense in this post. She has been pretty consistent about OMGUSING later game. Or rather she omguses hard, but not when it comes to Pooky?

she seemed more reasonable at this point? I wonder what happened also, *mutters* maybe.
This is a lot of town reads to be giving out to actual town for scum her honestly.
hmm?
: Hmm. Psyching himself up?
: You see this isn't what she actually did until you said this Taylor. Rather, she ignored Pookie, but gave LLD a hard time, though on an emotional level I can understand why you would fous on LLD rather than on Pookie.
: Outrage seems real enough. Don't see why it can't be rage as either alignment tho.
: Wrong tact.

Pookie isn't here.
Murder doing a play by play.

I'm reading LLD's case and I don't really agree with her at all. But she could be right I guess, maybe? Eh. Keep reading.

#: I don't really think this sounds defensive? It sounds sort of honest, honestly.
#: I'm not sure if she's arguing it's unfair or if she's interested in sorting LLD. Though her question about what LLD typically does points to sorting to a surface extent.

[post=#240:]#240:[/post] Hmm. Decides to jump in on this. Betelgeuse.

Taking another break.
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Post Post #8494 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:02 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8492, Bell wrote:
In post 8485, Noraa wrote:
In post 8480, Bell wrote:I don't know how coached didn't pass into her lexicon.
confuzzled again.
You asked why Pooky thought you were being coached or put up a question mark like you didn't know what he was talking about.
But contextually, being coached means scum is coaching you in their private thread. It shouldn't be that difficult to understand.
Not sure what I was thinking at the time but I dont think I understood what it meant at the time. It's a byproduct of quick skims :/
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Post Post #8495 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:04 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8493, Bell wrote:154 Is this another a little too accurate to be town posts? /:
holy fuck. I'm a god. I nailed Vaultdweller who no one suspected at the time.
I can see why it comes off as TMI tho.

Everyone needs to call me scum hunting god from now on :D
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Post Post #8496 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:08 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

goddess
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That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


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Post Post #8497 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:53 pm

Post by MURDERCAT »

Spoiler: towncasing myself
In post 773, MURDERCAT wrote:
In post 382, shellyc wrote:
In post 378, Bell wrote:You’re basically dead to me at this point shelly.
This is your scum game.
...

asking for reads = scummy
paranoia = scummy

this is omgus by the way, i've been SR on bell since forever
Kinda agree with bell tbh
In post 800, MURDERCAT wrote:
In post 445, shellyc wrote:
In post 439, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I'll just as soon burn you to the ground for doing this as I will let that happen.
yes noraa dies today im like, not opposed to that at all but i feel we're wasting too much energy on outed scum
Ehh shelly is pinging me hard with some of these posts
My Shelly read is going to be a large part of the evidence I'm town. It started early, and I never wavered on "maybe bell maybe shelly." I was always team Bell.
In post 2434, MURDERCAT wrote:Pooky/Shelly/Toogeloo/Vaxkiller/Lapsa

This is the scumteam, no questions please
To be blunt, there's no way I ever give up 2 of my scum team like this. No one would ever BoP me, so there's no reason to. I also would never be this firm with the divide between my SRs and TRs, I would want to keep space in case it was more convenient to move elsewhere. There are multiple examples of me claiming that generally null read players like fidget were town because they aren't in this list. E.g. here
In post 2593, MURDERCAT wrote:I literally can't overstate how confident I am in my solve and that flea is therefore town
In post 2454, MURDERCAT wrote:VOTE: toogoloo
Admittedly not my best read, I don't think I am so eager to help lead a wagon on a townie at deadline as scum.
In post 3555, Toogeloo wrote:My personal feelings of who I think the scum team are:
Hopkirk
Theta Alpine
Gloria
Vaxkiller
UNOwen
In post 3556, MURDERCAT wrote:Nice, hit vax
There's no reason for me to help direct a shot that was already aimed at 5 townies. Also, something something egg on face :P
In post 3588, MURDERCAT wrote:If you had handed me the scroll I was shooting Lapsa FWIW
This was 100% true, but not worth much.
In post 3883, MURDERCAT wrote:This is a placeholder? Are we reaction testing? Shelly is smart enough to fake this reaction
Not giving Shelly any room to work with her fake reaction to the hurt tag.
In post 4500, MURDERCAT wrote:Ok look, LLD was town for day 1 because trying to sort her preflips would be a huge pain. We really needed to hit scum to see if she would just die but because we didn't now we actually have to see if she is scum. I think there is some evidence she is scum:

- She never reevaluated the Noraa read but was still really willing to go for Toog despite her tunnel on Noraa. Yes the plan was to go for Noraa in 3rd slot, but she then shifted gears towards Hopkirk? I think town LLD should in a rage about not hitting Noraa there if the tunnel is real. I also feel like the let's be sure to hit scum 3rd slot is anti-town, but that's just my opinion.
- LLD's anger about Noraa seemed fake to me. There were overreactions there that, IMO, seemed off. I know LLD is an emotional player, but I don't think you get that angry about caught scum.
- The Hopkirk read was bad. I had hopkirk pegged as town and LLD's reasoning about the poetry was super off.
- I haven't seen any deep reads from LLD. It's a lot of surface level stuff and I think we are deep enough into this game to get some real content.

Here's the biggest reason I think we should "180" as I think Shelly put it. On day 1, in my mind there was an early D1 town block of {me, LLD, Pooky, MUSH}. These four players were generally accepted to be not in the elim pool. Given the knowledge that I am town, the odds that the others players are also randomly town is 0.376 (14/19*13/18*12/17). The odds of randomly getting a T>T>T on D1 given that I am not eliminated and I know I am town, is 0.472 (14/19*14/18*14/17). Given that we ended up with a T>T>T the new conditional probability that {LLD, Pooky, MUSH} are all town (again, from my POV knowing that I am town) is 0.135. That is a pretty serious drop that, FMPOV, means we should be reevaluating players we considered to be town.

The numbers would be different for all of us, but the general idea holds. The fact that we didn't hit scum yesterday means we need to broaden our lim pool for today as there is a higher likelihood that our initial reads were wrong.
Why would I ever do this if LLD is TRing me? Too spooky 4 scum
In post 4452, MURDERCAT wrote:I think there is a good shot fredrick is town and we are being snowed by strong scum players
In post 4645, MURDERCAT wrote:VOTE: Fred

I'm willing to go with you and bell today because I took my shot D1 and missed.
"Bussing my teammate and making sure to get no town cred for it"
In post 5552, MURDERCAT wrote: These posts are really interesting, it seems like there are sides forming around Shelly/Uno

One thing to note is that scum will probably hard defend partners today because they will really want to avoid S>T>S

If Shelly is scum we should come back here
This post (in reference to Titus, I had a whole list of her posts) is me trying to kill another one of my partners if I'm scum.
In post 5714, MURDERCAT wrote:
In post 5712, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:this is some very selective iso reading MC
Yes, I'm aware. I'm accumulating evidence that Shelly is scum. ie if Shelly is scum, these are the things that provide evidence of that
Remember this interaction where I literally quoted most of Shelly's iso and called her scum for basically all the posts?
In post 5722, MURDERCAT wrote:I think I've seen enough, Shelly's reads are constantly against mine. Consider my vote there
The only reason I didn't vote shelly was because I wanted to talk more, if I was bussing I would have made sure to be on the wagon like DFG with Titus still in the game.
In post 5745, MURDERCAT wrote:You're bugging me out this game Titus, you have a scum flip why does it feel like you aren't really searching
More of me trying to kill all my partners.
In post 5746, MURDERCAT wrote:
In post 3274, Hectic wrote:
Votecount 1.20
(FINAL)


[11]
Toogeloo
:
Hopkirk
,
MURDERCAT
, Titus,
Toogeloo
,
Theta Alpine
,
MUSHSHAGANA
,
Lady Lambdadelta
,
Noraa
, UNOwen, shellyc,
Bell
HAMMER

[2] Tayl0r Swift:
PookyTheMagicalBear,
Bell

[2]
Bell
:
Tayl0r Swift,
Vaxkiller

[2] shellyc:
Fidget, Flea The Magician
[1]
Noraa
:
Adorable
[1] PookyTheMagicalBear
Gloria Cleary
[1] Adorable:
Lapsa

[1] Not Voting:
Zdenek
I find it hard to believe that any of those greens are wrong and I also doubt that wagon was all town.
Remember this interaction where I kept trying to say there was probably scum on Toog?
In post 5862, MURDERCAT wrote:I didn't like how Titus tested the waters with UNO before shifting to Shelly if Shelly does come up scum
More setting up Titus after getting Shelly
In post 5885, MURDERCAT wrote:I have a pretty solid town read on taylor which has also led me to question Pooky for the same reason.
Tayl0r is also a possible miselim I would have never TR'd this hard
In post 6006, MURDERCAT wrote:
In post 6004, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:And a HURT tag isn't a vote.

DGB replaced Lapsa, so DGB can be scum.
I am watching this as well
Setting up my final partner too if I'm scum.
In post 6308, MURDERCAT wrote:Titus has been kind of floating in a way that makes me suspicious, I think there is a lot to be learned about the associations with Fred but it doesn't seem as if she has dug into it the way I'd expect her to. Of course, she did replace into this game and has had real life stuff going on, but still all I can go off is what she has posted and I'm not that impressed by it at the moment. I similarly don't like Titus's UNO vote.
In post 6310, MURDERCAT wrote:Given my gut read that shelly is scum, I'd say gut says titus is more likely scum than town at the moment
More trying to turn the shelly yeet into a S>T>S
In post 6379, MURDERCAT wrote:I'd like to enter for the record

Fred/Shelly/Goofball/Flea/Titus

Perhaps Pooky is in there instead? Mostly anyone who voted UNO

Pedit :P
In post 6510, MURDERCAT wrote:{MURDERCAT, Bell, Noraa} - the town block, not worth discussing. 100% cleared from my POV
{UNOwen} - potential applicant to the town block, I'm going to double check for myself but from memory also clear
{Tayl0r Swift, Gloria Cleary} - town by play, looks like they are clearly solving to me
{Adorable} - town by association with Fred, but I should reread to look for what Shelly said about this slot

Leaving:

PookyTheMagicalBear
Titus
Flea The Magician
Dripping Goofball
Fidget
In post 6549, MURDERCAT wrote:dgb is scum pretty sure
In post 6613, MURDERCAT wrote:Pooky, I'm thinking we hit Titus scum today, vote me tomorrow, I scroll you and you can take out goofball. Leave town with 1 scum left to find and we get to hang out in the dead thread, thoughts?
I mean come on, this is never scum


This was usefully mostly to reorient to the events of the game but I would appreciate if you all read it. I am a lot townier that I thought, my reads were actually pretty good this game.
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Post Post #8498 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:54 pm

Post by MURDERCAT »

Cases on the rest of you coming some time, maybe tonight maybe tomorrow
GTKAMURDERCAT

Retired from playing, find me on discord
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Noraa
Noraa
ze/zir
fluffy tsunami
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Noraa
ze/zir
fluffy tsunami
fluffy tsunami
Posts: 14568
Joined: August 23, 2020
Pronoun: ze/zir
Location: the fridge where the ice cream be

Post Post #8499 (ISO) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:58 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 8497, MURDERCAT wrote:my reads were actually pretty good this game.
mine as well. I'm almost done reading ur case on urself.
Dream as if you'll live forever, live as if you'll die today.
Come play Guess that Scummer OR ELSE
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