976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[DoubtingThomas]

i didnt read your posts. maybe later. independent of mathblade then, why do you town read akarin?

[SKYEscrapers]

generally, when i read an akarin post, i find myself agreeing with it, or at least understanding the thought process behind it.

[SKYEscrapers]

do you have any reasons to suspect her other than math?

The Empress

[Gypyx]

Ok so hmmmm, Akarin is pretty likely to be scum based on math being the nightkill imo, and

i still haven't given up my scumread on her

VOTE: Akarin

is this still based on the scumslip thing?

-----------------------

@schadd_

you can take me off vla. ari did that because he's going to be vla, but i'm here.

Well yeah, and also thier behaviour around the fake deadline was kinda like, stalling, in a way i'm not a fan of

Just dropped by to post this, i'm really busy rn

[SKYEscrapers]

for whenever you get back, what do you think of the information the fact that i 100% agree with what akarin was saying with the stuff that you interpreted as a scum slip?

as for the stalling. I think stalling makes sense if you're unsure about whether it really is the deadline.

The Empress

[mastina]

why was that claim in the abstract bad? to me, it seemed like exactly the sort of thing that schadd would do in a mbos.

Because percentage-based roles seem like the sort of thing schadd_ would put in the OP as a possibility with them not actually being a real thing. schadd_'s sample roles for every MBOS game have been roles that don't actually exist and never exist in any MBOS game past present or future, but which serve to highlight the sort of thing that schadd_ could do.

Very much akin to:

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread.
complementary slackness can be expected to hold given the typical assumptions.

the nine roles in this game each took inspiration from one of the following sentences which were provided to me by list moderator Isis:

• Larger radars usually are used for longer range, while radars designed for detailed imaging of objects may be smaller.
  
• My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.
  
• Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
  
• Five lefts make a left.
  
• It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
  
• Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
  
• There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
  
• Drink lots of water every chance you get.
  
• Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

sample townie PM:

welcome to micro 976! you are a

town horificunx.

if you at any point share separate neighborhoods with exactly two other players, you may choose one of them to be killed and one of them to exit the game in a victory. if both of them were mafia, you must recruit a player from outside of the game to become a neutral survivor.

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

please confirm by telling me what the bolded green text says.

A percentage-based role looks like it's in the realm of horificunx, or maybe a statement that is obviously nonsense but which technically could be true.

So yes, I didn't think schadd_ would actually do it.
Most schadd_ roles in MBOS games are still based on normal role mechanics, by and large, even if they have modifications to them. Investigitoirs, as an example of a recurring schadd_ role, are based on a Cop, but function more in practice like a Gunsmith or even a Neapolitan, in that common to the role is innocents being definitely innocent, but guilties not being inherently guilty. Invented roles tend to also serve to still be similar to existing roles, and not all schadd_ roles are even new roles!

A percentage-based Informed felt like it was out of place as a genuine town claim, something that

could

exist, because it could be a thing schadd_ could do in theory, but something that's unlikely to actually exist in that form, thus the doubt. I thought a role like that might fit for 3p, but it's obviously not now, with the benefit of end of day info.

Are we waiting for something? Akarin, vote for mastina. DoubtingThomas, vote for Akarin. And then TheGoldenParadox, decide between mastina or Akarin. This doesn't take 10 days.

Or how about we don't mislynch one of the two towniest slots in the game and instead eliminate in the pool that has a 2/3rds chance of containing scum?

And it's weird how silent this game has gotten to me.

You have recency bias; the game has always been this silent, except for around deadline. It wasn't until just before Mathblade replaced in (due to possible deadline rush) and then continuing after he replaced in (due to definite deadline + Mathblade being an active presence engaging every player) that things were active.

This game has 14-day deadlines, right?
We were inactive for 13 or so days before we picked up activity for like two days or so.

I'd love to take up the mantle and be the proactive driving force engaging every player, but...I don't have it in me right now. (As in, generic right now, not right now as in specific to this moment of this day, early 11/18/2020. Not specific to today, just in general, I don't have it in me to engage every player, don't have that energy, I'm far more reactive right now.)

[mastina]

(To give you an idea.
The game was 18 or so pages before deadline rush.
And about 36 by the day's end--the game literally doubled in length in less than four days.)

[Akarin]

It's been much worse recently, Mastina.

And we're 4 IRL days into the day and TGP has yet to say

anything

related to the game. The prod dodge was a vote count correction but they've been active on site.

Gypyx likewise isn't thinking or engaging nearly as much as he was on D1. DT isn't reading the posts he linked or short responses to them.

Engagement is way down, and yeah it's partly my fault, but I really wanted to see some engagement from TGP in particular.

[Akarin]

Gypyx, you should also be pushing Mastina by the way, she made the same scumslip I did.

[Akarin]

I've also been feeling like I really need to put some time in and read and old Gypyx game, don't want to coast on my townread there, especially given his approach to... NK analysis here.

Gypyx, do you have a town game you think is particularly similar to your play in this game?

[Gypyx]

I've also been feeling like I really need to put some time in and read and old Gypyx game, don't want to coast on my townread there, especially given his approach to... NK analysis here.

Gypyx, do you have a town game you think is particularly similar to your play in this game?

Well, i'm actively trying to keep my playstyle changed and i have a rate of like, 50% scum games so it's kind of hard to find meta reads for me but here ya go : https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83755

I think it's more easier to see that i'm not being scum rather than i'm being town, like, my scumgame is pretty obvious on tone

[DoubtingThomas]

Gypyx, you should also be pushing Mastina by the way, she made the same scumslip I did.

wher?

[TheGoldenParadox]

apologies that wasn't supposed to be a protege i'm just so ridiculously lost on what to think after those flips.

i plan to treat dunnstral as town, because by and large the biggest factors of my scumread on them came from their interactions with nic and i am nowhere near confident enough in my scumread to override the overwhelming mechanical evidence of them being town. that being said, they are playing scummily.

i still townread mastina, although to a lesser extent than i did yesterday (i'm much more open to the possibility of her simply having pocketed me d1.) also townleaning on akarin, and i would prefer to not get either of them today.

gypyx radiates town energy to me, and if that slot is scum i'll be extremely surprised, so avoiding that as well.

so we're left with {skye, DT}, the latter of which is pretty null but looking worse and worse. that being said, skye has seemed off to me, especially the entire three-person hydra's drop in activity and general... off play, so i'm good with VOTE: skye today.

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

vote count 2.2

mastina (2):

Dunnstral, SKYEscrapers

SKYEscrapers (2):

mastina, TheGoldenParadox

Akarin (2):

Gypyx, DoubtingThomas

not voting (1):

Akarin

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to Finally Forbid someone. day 2 ends november 26th at 11:15 central US time; in (expired on 2020-11-26 11:15:00)

mod notes

• h

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[Dunnstral]

I'm not up for voting Skye. I scumread DoubtingThomas but t hey're less likely than mastina

[Akarin]

Ari should be back soon, interested to see his catchup.

Sorry I didn't have anything in particular to ask you tris.

I have a Mastina meta question for Dunn/Ari but I don't want to ask it until after Ari has actually caught up.

[Akarin]

@DT
Among other places:

Given the game size, a D1 town win (from just one threat to the town) seems unlikely.
Given the small number of town in the game if there's 4 town, 3/4 mutually-exclusive-to-town seems unlikely.
Therefore, the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town is two.

schadd_ has stated that of the nontown, two will share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon.

It is not much of a leap from "the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town, is two", and "schadd stated that of the nontown, two share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon", to conclude that the two players who share a PT with mutuality in wincon, are the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon.

If you make that leap, then for all intents and purposes, the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon, who share a PT and have some mutuality in their wincon, are for all intents and purposes, Scum.

But the bigger point is that I feel like everyone sort of acknowledged it when I said this, moved on (other than maybe Gypyx) and now the "scumslip" is back to being an actual part of your/Gypyx's reasoning with no actual, forgive the harshness,

thought

going into it.

[DoubtingThomas]

apologies that wasn't supposed to be a protege i'm just so ridiculously lost on what to think after those flips.

i plan to treat dunnstral as town, because by and large the biggest factors of my scumread on them came from their interactions with nic and i am nowhere near confident enough in my scumread to override the overwhelming mechanical evidence of them being town. that being said, they are playing scummily.

i still townread mastina, although to a lesser extent than i did yesterday (i'm much more open to the possibility of her simply having pocketed me d1.) also townleaning on akarin, and i would prefer to not get either of them today.

gypyx radiates town energy to me, and if that slot is scum i'll be extremely surprised, so avoiding that as well.

so we're left with {skye, DT}, the latter of which is pretty null but looking worse and worse. that being said, skye has seemed off to me, especially the entire three-person hydra's drop in activity and general... off play, so i'm good with VOTE: skye today.

i am looking worse and worse, yeah? lol

[DoubtingThomas]

dunnstral magically scum reading me out of his ass after he barely survives d1 and the only strong townie who town read me is nk'ed n1. convenient

[DoubtingThomas]

am i remembering correctly math said dunn is likely town if niccage is town?

[DoubtingThomas]

[unv][/unv]

bbl i am busy

[DoubtingThomas]

UNVOTE:

[Akarin]

Hey Empress Tris, has Ari been active in your PT again yet?

[DoubtingThomas]

@DT
Among other places:

Given the game size, a D1 town win (from just one threat to the town) seems unlikely.
Given the small number of town in the game if there's 4 town, 3/4 mutually-exclusive-to-town seems unlikely.
Therefore, the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town is two.

schadd_ has stated that of the nontown, two will share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon.

It is not much of a leap from "the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town, is two", and "schadd stated that of the nontown, two share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon", to conclude that the two players who share a PT with mutuality in wincon, are the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon.

If you make that leap, then for all intents and purposes, the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon, who share a PT and have some mutuality in their wincon, are for all intents and purposes, Scum.

But the bigger point is that I feel like everyone sort of acknowledged it when I said this, moved on (other than maybe Gypyx) and now the "scumslip" is back to being an actual part of your/Gypyx's reasoning with no actual, forgive the harshness,

thought

going into it.

uhm maybe i should come back later but like i re-read this three times and i dont get it? i had a long day at work. can you paraphrase?

[Dunnstral]

dunnstral magically scum reading me out of his ass after he barely survives d1 and the only strong townie who town read me is nk'ed n1. convenient