Mini Normal 2173 | Bending | Game Over

[Marky Mark]

-Taylor (conftown RIP) has experience of my scumgame and has consistently strongly townread me all game.

-DK's position on whether they thought I could watch DGB last night jsut doesn't make sense due to how inconsistent it is - 4260 from VPB sums this up really well

-DK's position ref the Taylor wagon is also all over the place compare

mark i found independently scummy from d1. also them hopping on the taylor wagon late on d2 makes sense now

Where she SRs me for being late to the wagon with

put shade on wagon, get ppl to scumread said person, hop off to be disassociated once more people are more or less set in a tunnel on the slot

Also talking about the wagon where she explains how scum could've started the wagon and hopped off after getting others (ie townies) to join the wagon later on

-DK's assertion in 4266 that there was 1 scum out of me and Infinity seems to have come out of nowhere and doesn't make sense

-Their attack here is jsut massively clutching at straws (I was posting half-asleep in bed at 7am my time because I knew how important it was to get the result out before people claimed other stuff and was planning to read up, draw conclusions and vote etc after work):

Morning all, I'm not up to date with all the new posts but just wanted to get the info out that DGB was visited by a detective and mailman

Clarification: multitasking mailman

look at that

they have a lapse here and slip and dont claim a role that would obviously be a scumclaim wrt what i claimed. the fact they just dropped this and left without even so much as dropping a vote is absurd

[Marky Mark]

VOTE: DK

[VP Baltar]

Mark, what is your read on FL and andres out of the exchanges today?

[Marky Mark]

If we are going to talk about the Taylor wagon, let's also talk about how DK was consistently on it for much of D2 and was a key driving force for the wagon. I was the 8th player to be on a Taylor wagon that day - if votes had been timed differently she could've been elimed 2-3 times before I'd even voted her. As explained my vote was based on the amount of friction the wagon was facing and the number of times it hadn't gone through, ironically it was DK who voiced this idea in the first place.

We can also talk about associative reads as well. I've been saying DGB is scummy for a while and Infinity dying over the FN on the night he had targetted her supports this (possible ofc scum did this to set her up). She is WKing DK hard and has been all game (apart from early D2 when she inexplicably stated that she was going to consider eliming DK that day and then retracted it). She was absolutely another driving force behind the Taylor elim and hopped off more than once when the wagon got too much heat.

-- pedit

@VP I was surprised to see FL claim the non-loyal odd night FN today as heavily implying they were a different type of FN just doesn't make sense in terms of orthodox town play (I remember reading on the wiki that it's almost never an good idea for town to fakeclaim or misconstrue their role) but I don't know how in-character it is for him.

Both FL and Andres have U-Turned on me fairly hard over the course of D3 so far from seeing me as probably town to SRing me.

[VP Baltar]

Infinity dying over the FN

I think andres made this argument earlier. I just don't get it. Killing the detective seems like a much smarter move for the scum, compared to the low risk of keeping a FN alive for another day.

[Marky Mark]

@VP to give examples of the 180 degree reads on me by Andres and FL

Andres 4147 has him stating DK is scum but he seems to have come around now to seeing me as more likely to be scum (or at least his prefered elim option) eg 4222

And FL 4007 has me as 'probably town' then votes me in 4279 and bangs on about how scummy my posts are in 4298

I don't think they're both scum tbf - it's DKK, probs DGB and then one other, which could be one of those two.

FL's FN stuff ought to be verifiable if the town make him target someone widely town-read who can verify it, so there is a chance that that slot might be mechanically solveable.

[Marky Mark]

Infinity dying over the FN

I think andres made this argument earlier. I just don't get it. Killing the detective seems like a much smarter move for the scum, compared to the low risk of keeping a FN alive for another day.

If DGB is town then letting her be investigated doesn't clear her, but due to FL implying he was a Loyal FN, letting him have a night action on that assumption would either give us another conftown or find a scum.

This isn't hard and fast ofc as scum could be trying to frame DGB but Ockham's Razor would say that the more likely course of events is that they were trying to protect her

[Andresvmb]

@Koba please claim the form in which you got the message that Flavor is Friendly Neighbor. And Town. Is it Mod Confirmed to you in some way?

[Andresvmb]

Note, I’m not asking for the exact message as that I’m sure is against the rules.

[Andresvmb]

@Mark I don’t know that I necessarily SR you. Mechanically, one of you and Koba is Scum. But if you’re Town, Flavor is almost by definition also Scum. And given associatives, DGB would have to be flipped at that stage. So have the contours of the entire Scum Team if you’re correct. Which is why it’s useful to flip you to confirm all of this. If you’re Scum, then we really have many players that are a Town core and a Confirmed Town that I’m sure will need to get taken out. So logically, executing you is the right play.

[Andresvmb]

At worst you end up in ELo at the very end with three players and a chance to win the game. Otherwise, we’ve righted the ship with a lot of solid Town still alive.

[Andresvmb]

Or at least that’s how I see it. I can also see the argument that DGB isn’t necessarily Scum with Koba and Flavor if you’re Town. But they are literally always Scum if you’re Town. And we can also somewhat clear VPB in that case. It’s an easy way to open up the game.

[Andresvmb]

^by they I mean Koba/Flavor.

[Marky Mark]

I'm going to be popping out this evening but happy to answer any Qs as and when I'm on. Tbqh I am fully expecting to get faded here.

If you look at things objectively, I've been pointing out that DK and DGB are scummy all game with the exception of DK on D2 where it sounded like they were town due to the original mailman claim and the FN shenannigans. I have laid out my position on both of them objectively and most of the stuff coming back the other way has been misreps and unsubstantiated smears, particularly in DK's case.

They have also both hardpushed townies in terms of their votes throughout whereas I compromised from DK to Geraint to avoid No Elim with <24h left on D1 and moved to a Taylor vote late D2 after believeing the (false) argument DK made about how sus it was that there had been multiple serious wagons on her and she was still alive.

Just look at who has been pushing hard and consistently the wagons on town players who are now dead - this is absolutely the smoking gun here

I am also a shocking scum player and you have a conftown player in Taylor who knows my scum game and read me as '90% town' shortly before dying.

[Andresvmb]

I did think about what Tayl0r said about your slot. But effectively you’d be siding with VPB who both Tayl0r and Infinity had as their only SR. So that goes both ways.

[Marky Mark]

@Mark I don’t know that I necessarily SR you. Mechanically, one of you and Koba is Scum. But if you’re Town, Flavor is almost by definition also Scum. And given associatives, DGB would have to be flipped at that stage. So have the contours of the entire Scum Team if you’re correct. Which is why it’s useful to flip you to confirm all of this. If you’re Scum, then we really have many players that are a Town core and a Confirmed Town that I’m sure will need to get taken out. So logically, executing you is the right play.

I can see the logic in this POV, although I feel it leaves the town at risk. DGB seems very likely scum in association to DK. FL looks scummy by association but I wouldn't say he is confscum. His claim redefinition is v scummy but if true I suppose he could perhaps have FN'ed DK in good faith.

Obviously if there were 4 scum (my first mini so not sure how rare this is) we would be effed lol

Like I'm pretty zen about all of this, but I worry that if I am miselimed first then we could still lose with 3 players left as FL isn't stone cold scum. Conversely, if we flip DK today then we are in a commanding position where even if we are wrong ref DGB (unlikely) or FL (more possible) we still win.

[Andresvmb]

Nah Flavor is literally always Scum with Koba if you flip Town. There’s no avoiding that. Flavor under pressure claimed a mechanical verification that Koba backed up on the same day. They’re the same alignment.

[Andresvmb]

Like Flavor claimed Friendly Neighbor that communicated with Koba. Koba confirmed Flavor is 100% Town both today and yesterday when this was claimed. There’s no other way to interpret this, given your check, than they’re the same alignment. There’s a small universe where Flavor sends this message to Koba who clears Flavor, but is also Scum, but even in that scenario they’ve been so aligned that I doubt that this is happening.

[Marky Mark]

I did think about what Tayl0r said about your slot. But effectively you’d be siding with VPB who both Tayl0r and Infinity had as their only SR. So that goes both ways.

I totally get this and I also thought VP was a prime suspect before receiving my results PM at the end of N2. They were wrong on that SR but its understandable because VP had been pushing them incorrectly.

--pedit oh ok Andres, that makes sense ref FL and DK I guess. I mean my point was that it's still not a stone cold town win eg if any of you/JV/N_M were scum and DGB was just having a really bad game in terms of tunnelling me and WKing DK but I do see how it looks fypov too

[VP Baltar]

Part of me thinks we should try to hit correctly today. I think my slot may need to be limmed at some point given I look like trash after infinity/taylor. I know that's a miselim, so if it has to happen, I'd rather we don't lose the game on that. That would me hitting correct today is more important.

pedit -- I would add to that andres that we certainly don't have a town detective, town role watcher and town friendly neighbor. That's way too much confirmed town imo. Only outlier is if there are four scum and this game is a race for town investigatives to solve before surprise Xylo.

[Andresvmb]

Obviously Infinity checked Flavor and we know that to have been truthful, so I am willing to clear Flavor completely, and decide between you and Koba now. I would rather force the Scum into a bad position if they’re both Town by nuking you, than taking the chance of executing Koba. And yeah, DGB stood behind Koba to the point that there’s just too many associatives for any of them to get away from consecutive executions if you flip Town. Though you are right, it would be Koba, DGB, Flavor. Given Flavor’s mechanical claim, he can also clear himself to someone outside that group tonight *anyway*.

[VP Baltar]

That would me hitting correct today is more important.

That would mean...

[Andresvmb]

So what you get at the end is a chance for Flavor to engage in a 1v1 I think if he survives that long, and really give Town a 50/50 choice. And he can strengthen that by not picking the NK tonight. It’s a very difficult mechanical claim to get away from if you flip Town, so there’s no reason not to just execute Mark here in my humble opinion.

[Andresvmb]

And besides I know I’m Town right. Koba defended me to Flavor, who really wanted to execute me yesterday. Koba as Scum let’s that happen probably, or at the very least does not protect me nearly as much. How can I TR Koba and not then immediately assume that Flavor and DGB are Town here, and you’re Scum Mark? I can’t right? I’m boxed into this decision for sure.

[Marky Mark]

Obviously Infinity checked Flavor and we know that to have been truthful, so I am willing to clear Flavor completely, and decide between you and Koba now. I would rather force the Scum into a bad position if they’re both Town by nuking you, than taking the chance of executing Koba. And yeah, DGB stood behind Koba to the point that there’s just too many associatives for any of them to get away from consecutive executions if you flip Town. Though you are right, it would be Koba, DGB, Flavor. Given Flavor’s mechanical claim, he can also clear himself to someone outside that group tonight *anyway*.

We know FL didn't kill N1, which is not the same thing as him not being scum, eg if the scumteam was DK/DGB/Another player I could easily believe that DGB killed N1. FL v likely scum but not stone cold scum here

And besides I know I’m Town right. Koba defended me to Flavor, who really wanted to execute me yesterday. Koba as Scum let’s that happen probably, or at the very least does not protect me nearly as much. How can I TR Koba and not then immediately assume that Flavor and DGB are Town here, and you’re Scum Mark? I can’t right? I’m boxed into this decision for sure.

I'll leave it up to the more experienced players to decide how likely 4 scum is and how likley Role Watcher/Detective/Odd-Night FN is as I have no idea. I see your POV but it leaves 0 room for mistakes. It's also worth pointing out that while I think you're unlikely to be scum here Andres, its a non-zero chance that you could be and scum!you makes exactly this argument to ensure my lim today