Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Infinity 324]

Spoiler:

Best Bird is leaning scum but sadly not sure so if I am the flip today for what are genuinely unknown and confusing reasons so be it but ur prob gonna lose tomorrow or when the inevitable two scumpool slots are the ones you’re choosing between

I’m just going to trust skitt because she’s more competent than me

Anyway, I get to claim that I am a genius here either way because either I caught S_S/infinity/...NM? even tho I sheeped reads and we lost OR it is lilith/Dave/peta or BB and i get to claim I’m a genius for setting aside my ego and following skitter

Oh wait maybe lilith is town? And this is (Dave/peta/really loooks like infinity but probably BB unless infinity did a really good acting job around the cop claim and skitter was totally wrong there too) trying to setup a chain misflip on her

If we clear that pool, we win, if you kill me we maybe win anyway but depends what stage we get to

Prob decent odds if you can hit the scum tomorrow (it’s pretty obviously dave) then sort between the tricky slots of (lilith, PP, BB) after that

Or tbf skitt was really confident on lili!scum so maybe do her > Dave? And they might well be scum together anyway

But like 5p lylo is probably very unpleasant

But by the time of 3p at least the person who’s left who’s not 2 of those slots will have a 50% chance if the game isn’t over before thst

I think a push on me from the scumteam with a gambit that outs 2 of them (I’m thinking they just... didn’t think enough about what happens if I’m the one who dies today? Or if this is successful?) is more likely from a team with lilith on it bc I think that’s where we were defaulting to, and getting lilith first would conf!town me going on, and then the PoE was losing for them anyway?

Idk gamestate feels suuuuuuuuper fucked up

Like ultimately it’s only a game and if I’m wrong I at least get the consolation that I was right for a while in the beginning and let myself get talked out of it by people who are better than me *shrug*

But at this point it’s not really worth agonisingly paranoiaing over it

Idk. Inherently this is going to be difficult to explain because it's gut. But this really

really

feels town to me.

[Infinity 324]

I'm also fairly certain scum!mena would be pushing me here.

I mean, if Menalque is redirector, then he has to push on one of {me, you, peta}. Given how close he was with skitter and how much he respects her opinion, it makes sense for peta to be the one he'd go after there, and he'd try to pocket me and you.

It wouldn't be hard to justify a push on me despite skitter's TR. It would go something like "I knew I was right on infinity, he did a really good job acting around the cop claim but I can't imagine lilith pulling a NK gambit or me being killed to frame infinity. Those plays seem too weird.

Sorry skitter if I'm wrong :/"

Peta push is inherently going to be harder atp since he tied himself to dave in a way that looks towny.

[Menalque]

I'm also fairly certain scum!mena would be pushing me here.

I mean, if Menalque is redirector, then he has to push on one of {me, you, peta}. Given how close he was with skitter and how much he respects her opinion, it makes sense for peta to be the one he'd go after there, and he'd try to pocket me and you.

Totally true tbh, this prob is the route I’d go down as scum

[petapan]

Why is it not you?

i am (or was, at least) a pretty fucking competent scum player. i entered the day aware of the mechanics in play with regard to claims. my whole day has been spent trying to work through claims to get a mechanical poe. not only have i put myself in that poe, i've taken someone else out of it. doing this, rather than claiming any missing power roles, puts me squarely in the crosshairs where i could instead hav either claimed doc and possibly gotten lilith voted out, or just claimed cop to avoid this situation in the first place. i'd have to give reports, but i could just claim a free guilty and send the game to lylo with town having no useful power roles. not a hard thing to do. claiming the way i have just makes my life harder than necessary as scum.

I’m very confused by why dave’s claim makes him town?

i'm not claiming it makes him town, ftr. i'm claiming it rules him out from having chosen cop/redirector in the auction. i know the redirector has 3 possibilities of who they could be. you think it's me, fine, flip me, but then dave's off limits tomorrow and you have to hunt the redirector anyway.

[Menalque]

I've never seen scum-Menalque get close to an execution. But I don't really think he would respond any other way besides this. Was there a particular post that you thought was genuine?

For real tho, are you scum S_S? I just wanna know if this is you faking this level of respect for my scumgame or if you genuinely do

I would be doing my best to emulate what I’m doing now if I were scum — I wouldn’t give up. There’s a good meta example where I repped into a slot that was pretty obvscum and then went immediately into a 3p lylo and posted like 200+ times or something just in that phase despite being obvscum

But like, I feel there is a marked difference between scum!me in lylo and town!me — honestly, it’s one of the weakest parts of my scumgame — and I don’t think I could replicate this play in lylo if I were scum? But then again, maybe it’s only distinguishable to me bc I now when I’m scum obviously and therefore know that I prob look less scummy to everyone than I feel I do

[Menalque]

Actually, that’s a very good point, peta

VOTE: peta

[Menalque]

Ugh I have an unpleasant feeling about exactly what’s going to happen tho

[petapan]

lol

[Infinity 324]

i am (or was, at least) a pretty fucking competent scum player. i entered the day aware of the mechanics in play with regard to claims. my whole day has been spent trying to work through claims to get a mechanical poe. not only have i put myself in that poe, i've taken someone else out of it. doing this, rather than claiming any missing power roles, puts me squarely in the crosshairs where i could instead hav either claimed doc and possibly gotten lilith voted out, or just claimed cop to avoid this situation in the first place. i'd have to give reports, but i could just claim a free guilty and send the game to lylo with town having no useful power roles. not a hard thing to do. claiming the way i have just makes my life harder than necessary as scum.

Yeah but I feel like no matter what scum played a good game and anyone in the PoE could have claimed something that doesn't put them there. Idk. Who do you think is scum?

[Menalque]

Like your last post reads very townie, and it’s true that if you’re town then it has to be S_S or infinity, which means I’m fighting an awful 1v1 tomorrow /if/ I even choose correctly in terms of who to vote between infinity/S_S

If you’re scum then that doesn’t happen, but if you’re town then actually we need to know today or you’re set to be miselimmed after I flip town almost for sure, and I’m setting up the person who’ll do it by falsely locktowning them

[Something_Smart]

For real tho, are you scum S_S? I just wanna know if this is you faking this level of respect for my scumgame or if you genuinely do

It wouldn't matter if I were, I wouldn't fake that kind of respect for your scumgame if I didn't really believe it.

Though, the only time I've seen you as scum I couldn't catch you until you tried to make a play, and if you're scum here then this would be your play and it doesn't feel especially fake, though I can see why it logically might be.

You just strike me as very self-aware both tonally and trajectory-wise and that makes it very hard to confidently say "scum-Menalque wouldn't do X".

[Infinity 324]

There’s a good meta example where I repped into a slot that was pretty obvscum and then went immediately into a 3p lylo and posted like 200+ times or something just in that phase despite being obvscum

Link?

[Menalque]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81124

I misremembered how long the overall game was actually, so it’s only 116 posts but still

[the worst]

vote count 4.04

Menalque (2):

Not_Mafia, davesaz

petapan (1):

Menalque

Not voting

: Something_Smart, Best Bird, Hoopla, lilith2013, petapan, Infinity 324

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-26 17:00:00)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

mod notes

:
- quack

[Menalque]

For real tho, are you scum S_S? I just wanna know if this is you faking this level of respect for my scumgame or if you genuinely do

It wouldn't matter if I were, I wouldn't fake that kind of respect for your scumgame if I didn't really believe it.

Though, the only time I've seen you as scum I couldn't catch you until you tried to make a play, and if you're scum here then this would be your play and it doesn't feel especially fake, though I can see why it logically might be.

You just strike me as very self-aware both tonally and trajectory-wise and that makes it very hard to confidently say "scum-Menalque wouldn't do X".

Well, that’s flattering, thank you.

Yeah, I can see how form your perspective as town how this fits into a schema of “mena is doing exactly what he’d do as scum” — which is true because I am doing that, but only because scum!me is quite good at simulating how town!me views the game and scum!me would know that town me wants to survive and to help town with final reads if dying. Whereas scum me is desperate not to die but knows that excessive survivalism will look bad, so the better odds of life actually lie in fskesolving until the last moment.

[petapan]

sheer fact of it is scum made a mechanical misplay coming into today that i was very obviously aware of and wouldn't have done in the first place. menalque letting slip he was unaware of this is probably a sign.

like, i don't know how relevant this is but

8 years ago in this very setup

i replaced into a scum slot on a team that had drawn redirector, and i tried to get my teammate to plan out a cop claim from day 2. it didn't work out because he wound up more or less shitting himself, but the thought was there. i would have planned this sort of thing out.

post originally had a vote for menalque in it but i'm going to talk things out instead

[Menalque]

There’s a good meta example where I repped into a slot that was pretty obvscum and then went immediately into a 3p lylo and posted like 200+ times or something just in that phase despite being obvscum

Link?

Although idk why you care that much, there’s not a lot of reason for scum!me to lie about this either way

Like if I’m referencing meta no-one knows about I don’t claim to be /better/ at wfforting in almost certainly lost games than I really am, how does that help me? I’d be better off saying “i don’t waste time on lost games” and linking a scumgame where I got frustrated and just trolled town or something

[Menalque]

I’ll laugh my ass off if after all this it is just NM and going through the PoE loses anyway

[Menalque]

sheer fact of it is scum made a mechanical misplay coming into today that i was very obviously aware of and wouldn't have done in the first place. menalque letting slip he was unaware of this is probably a sign.

I’m still unaware of it, what are you talking about?

[Infinity 324]

Although idk why you care that much, there’s not a lot of reason for scum!me to lie about this either way

Like if I’m referencing meta no-one knows about I don’t claim to be /better/ at wfforting in almost certainly lost games than I really am, how does that help me? I’d be better off saying “i don’t waste time on lost games” and linking a scumgame where I got frustrated and just trolled town or something

I wanna read it to see if I get the same gutfeels

[Hoopla]

wow, so there's no doc. that complicates things.

if anyone is secretly hiding the doc for gambit reasons, please just out now because it's more valuable for collective solving to have all the info.

i guess i'm back to considering the game from a lilith-town perspective. i really can't square away that scum would no-kill N1, so lilith being town seems like the most logical conclusion. i really resonate with infinity's 3246. it feels like the whole game has this dynamic tension between trusting reads or trusting mechanics.

by reads, lilith is scum, menalque is town.
by mechanics, the opposite is true, but i (again) agree with infinity. if menalque is scum, i'd be very impressed.

my gut read is that they're actually both town. or at the very least, i'm more interested in finding the cop/redirector and solving outside of this binary, as i think we have it narrowed down quite a bit.

the fakeclaiming scum can't be dave (unless dave is scum with peta specifically), but i found peta's weird gambit about going for watcher quite a left-field play that usually comes from a town perspective. and given watcher/commuter would be a weird role for a scum that high in the draft to take, i favour a town/town pairing there also.

to me, it's really starting to look like SS is scum. i feel if scum is going to go for cop, they're going to go for it earlier in the draft to ensure its blocked for town/narrowed down to a handful of slots above them.

and on another point: if menalque is town and was the NK N1, a scumteam with SS on it makes sense. according to menalque's 3226, SS would be a likely player to target him.

the cop/redirector

could

be infinity or menalque, but by play i have a much harder time seeing it than with SS (who is in the most logical spot from a mechanics perspective to be scum anyway). this actually does feel like a conclusion that has good harmony between reads/mechanics, so i want to trust it, given most of the other possible candidates require ignoring one side of the mechanics/reads dichotomy to work.

the only reads reason in SS's favour is that skitter was pretty sold on him being town iirc. but i still think he makes more sense than infinity/menalque or peta.

soooo...

VOTE: SS

[petapan]

sheer fact of it is scum made a mechanical misplay coming into today that i was very obviously aware of and wouldn't have done in the first place. menalque letting slip he was unaware of this is probably a sign.

I’m still unaware of it, what are you talking about?

leaving town with a confirmed missing cop slot in a group of people. i guess technically it's not that bad because the odds of finding scum in us 4 are potentially worse, but the field is narrowed, puts people under scrutiny who might not have been looked at otherwise. narrows the elimination pool and takes away people who would've been relatively easy votes.

[petapan]

i am (or was, at least) a pretty fucking competent scum player. i entered the day aware of the mechanics in play with regard to claims. my whole day has been spent trying to work through claims to get a mechanical poe. not only have i put myself in that poe, i've taken someone else out of it. doing this, rather than claiming any missing power roles, puts me squarely in the crosshairs where i could instead hav either claimed doc and possibly gotten lilith voted out, or just claimed cop to avoid this situation in the first place. i'd have to give reports, but i could just claim a free guilty and send the game to lylo with town having no useful power roles. not a hard thing to do. claiming the way i have just makes my life harder than necessary as scum.

Yeah but I feel like no matter what scum played a good game and anyone in the PoE could have claimed something that doesn't put them there. Idk. Who do you think is scum?

i'm having doubts toward menalque primarily because of his progression toward lilith and the way he was trying to get people to vote her today without claims. felt like it was an attempt to hustle us.

[petapan]

and i know for a fact skitter was wrong on at least one of her townreads so shrug

[Infinity 324]

Hoopla, what do you think of 3233? Put another way, if you agree with me that the scumpool is {peta, s_s, dave, bird} like you seem to, then peta has to be scum no matter what. If he flips town, then it makes dave a lot more likely to be town and we know that we have to reevaluate lilith/n_m/mena/each other.