Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: peta

[Infinity 324]

Hoopla, what do you think of 3233? Put another way, if you agree with me that the scumpool is {peta, s_s, dave, bird} like you seem to, then peta has to be scum no matter what. If he flips town, then it makes dave a lot more likely to be town and we know that we have to reevaluate lilith/n_m/mena/each other.

To clarify, peta doesn’t

have

to be scum given this pool, but if he isn’t then dave made an odd choice wrt a role and we should re-evaluate.

[petapan]

siting here blinking going

dude i fucking led you here and you think i'm scum for it

[Infinity 324]

*shrug* well it’s 100% confirmed that

someone

made an odd WIFOM play as scum

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what do you think of 3233? Put another way, if you agree with me that the scumpool is {peta, s_s, dave, bird} like you seem to, then peta has to be scum no matter what. If he flips town, then it makes dave a lot more likely to be town and we know that we have to reevaluate lilith/n_m/mena/each other.

i'm trying to work this out now.

~~

as far as SS partner hunting goes, i think BB looks the best bet from a PoE perspective, but i'm really struggling to find the third.

dave & N_M are prob-town based on claims.
menalque could be scum blocked N1, but it requires a lot of wilful ignorance re: his overall play.
for lilith to be scum, it requires a scum no-kill N1. i suppose SS is the sort of player who i could see considering this play, but this is still quite conspiratorial.

infinity and peta are probably the best bets for the third member, but i still have a lot of reservations. infinity will have played a blinder of a game as scum, with an impressive amount of lucid town-looking ruminations. this is maybe a partially gut thing, but when i've read some of his speculation/theorising posts, i just haven't got the sense he has informed knowledge of the setup.

peta i'm probably discounting too easily, because really, everyone else has way better reasons to be town, and the main one i have for him was his cute VT/watcher gambit. it seemed like the brainchild of a cagey townie trying to catch scum in the act, but i suppose it could have been manufactured. it's certainly not as strong of a reason as others have.

so, SS/BB/peta is probably my top solve right now.

[petapan]

*shrug* well it’s 100% confirmed that

someone

made an odd WIFOM play as scum

an odd wifom play or they didn't realize what not claiming cop would do. which i have been very keenly aware of, since the start of the day

[Infinity 324]

*shrug* well it’s 100% confirmed that

someone

made an odd WIFOM play as scum

an odd wifom play or they didn't realize what not claiming cop would do. which i have been very keenly aware of, since the start of the day

No I’m going through the plist. (This does assume mena town but)

n_m would’ve had to take neighborizer thing
you would’ve had to not claim cop for wine
lilith would’ve had to no kill n1
dave would’ve had to have taken watcher/commuter as scum unless scum with you

That leave hoopla, bird, s_s which means scum doubled up on their numbers. Like something ducky is going on 100% of the time if I’m not terribly misreading mena.

[Menalque]

sheer fact of it is scum made a mechanical misplay coming into today that i was very obviously aware of and wouldn't have done in the first place. menalque letting slip he was unaware of this is probably a sign.

I’m still unaware of it, what are you talking about?

leaving town with a confirmed missing cop slot in a group of people. i guess technically it's not that bad because the odds of finding scum in us 4 are potentially worse, but the field is narrowed, puts people under scrutiny who might not have been looked at otherwise. narrows the elimination pool and takes away people who would've been relatively easy votes.

It seems fine for scum from where I’m sitting? If it narrows down to 4 and you think you have a decent chance of getting a misguillo and maybe just winning outright there, it seems good

And if you do think it’s too obvious to try and defend your buddy you can just hardbus and have good odds in 5p

[Hoopla]

@menalque

what do you think is more likely:

- scum no-killed N1
- you were the NK

from a town-you perspective, that is the only two options.

[petapan]

so, SS/BB/peta is probably my top solve right now.

so i played today by putting myself in a poe with one of my teammates in it? lmfao. you're better than this.

[Menalque]

I don’t think lilith no killing on N1 is horrendously unlikely btw, although if she didn’t then she has to be town and that’s s quick given her play and especially her absence

I really think lilith is scum on play

[Menalque]

@menalque

what do you think is more likely:

- scum no-killed N1
- you were the NK

from a town-you perspective, that is the only two options.

I have no fuckin idea hoopla, sorry

They both seem unlikely but for different reasons — the only people with a big motavation to kill me N1 are all people I townread by this point

But no-killing always seems like a weird choice next to killing

[Menalque]

Hoopla why is Dave prob!town based on claim?

And why is lilith cleared? Just because of the NK thing? But if you’re claiming JK and you think you can use that to soft guilty someone the next day, that’s actually a pretty strong move if you plan the soft guilty in advance

And let’s remember that soft guilty is /still/ being used to attack me today and as a way to try and flip me (see: Dave, peta, lilith)

[Hoopla]

No I’m going through the plist. (This does assume mena town but)

n_m would’ve had to take neighborizer thing
you would’ve had to not claim cop for wine
lilith would’ve had to no kill n1
dave would’ve had to have taken watcher/commuter as scum unless scum with you

That leave hoopla, bird, s_s which means scum doubled up on their numbers. Like something ducky is going on 100% of the time if I’m not terribly misreading mena.

a lot of really low% seeming events, but at least one had to have happened.

a thought:

given dave spent a bunch of D1 harping on about how he would have chosen to double-up numbers if he drew scum just to subvert meta, it makes me think he's perhaps higher than likely to entertain different flavoured wifom plays (like taking a suboptimal scum role early in the draft).

[Menalque]

So it’s actually quite a strong move if you can permanently damage someone you know often comes across as town at worst, or get them miselimmed at best

[Something_Smart]

so, SS/BB/peta is probably my top solve right now.

If you think this is the team, why are you voting me over peta?

[Something_Smart]

you would’ve had to not claim cop for wine

I mean, this holds equally for whoever the redirector is.

[Infinity 324]

Honestly I could really see a peta scum here who made a mechanics fuckup and is mad at himself

[petapan]

LMFAO

[Something_Smart]

Or who had a reason for not claiming cop that he's not sharing?

[Infinity 324]

you would’ve had to not claim cop for wine

I mean, this holds equally for whoever the redirector is.

Yeah peta says they could’ve forgot that the PoE for redirector gets narrowed.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla why is Dave prob!town based on claim?

And why is lilith cleared? Just because of the NK thing? But if you’re claiming JK and you think you can use that to soft guilty someone the next day, that’s actually a pretty strong move if you plan the soft guilty in advance

yes, i feel like i'm perhaps falsely clearing dave too. based on play, he'd be a decent candidate as he's been quite under-the-radar.

as for lilith, that's why i asked you the N1 question. because for lilith to be scum, it requires scum no-killing. i just can't find a person on this playerlist other than SS or you that would do that.

to me, it seems likelier lilith is town and you were NK'ed (or you're scum who was blocked, but lets talk about the town-you universes first).

an interesting observation comes to mind:

SS makes the most sense as a player who would try to kill a town-you N1. but SS also makes sense as a player who i suspect would consider no-killing N1 given his adeptness regarding mechanics/strategy.

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: s_s ehh ok

[Hoopla]

If you think this is the team, why are you voting me over peta?

i'm still fleshing this out and seeing what makes sense.

i'm more than happy to compromise to elim a slot in my likely solve(s), but we have plenty of time to work through this.

[Infinity 324]

{me, hoopla, mena}

We need to find one more town.