Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Hoopla]

Gladly.

Usually it becomes easier to read people in a critical situation like this because scum start to more transparently play to their wincons.

But almost everybody is transparently playing to their hypothetical wincon if they are scum.

I really want to believe that Menalque is town and his persecution complex is real but him blindly sheeping skitter and pushing on lilith is really hard to wrap my head around.

who is your top suspect?

[the worst]

vote count 4.08

Menalque (2):

Not_Mafia, davesaz

lilith2013 (1):

Menalque

petapan (1):

Infinity 324

Not voting

: Something_Smart, Best Bird, lilith2013, petapan, Hoopla

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-26 17:00:00)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

mod notes

:
- lilith2013 v/la this weekend
- quack

[Something_Smart]

who is your top suspect?

Legit no clue.

[Infinity 324]

s_s, if you're town we absolutely need you to vote today. Too many townies don't agree/are wrong and scum have no incentive to bus.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, of course. We're obviously not rushing this day like we rushed some of the others.

[Hoopla]

s_s, if you're town we absolutely need you to vote today. Too many townies don't agree/are wrong and scum have no incentive to bus.

yes, at a certain point, this is no longer is a valid viewpoint:

Legit no clue.

like, yeah the game is hard. but i'd like to see more attempts at solving from you.

[Hoopla]

i feel like mena/infinity share the same alignment. they're either both scum playing excellently, or they're both town.

if infinity is scum and mena is town, i don't see why infinity consistently pumps the brakes on the mena wagon throughout the day. maybe he felt locked into his mena townread, or maybe he assumed mena's wagon would go through on its own accord. but i just don't think he would be so vocal in opposing it if scum.

if mena is scum, this is a pretty overt connection between the two of them. maybe it's too obvious? i don't know. but like even mena himself says, who are his partners? it's probably quite likely infinity is one of them from PoE.

i feel like if i end up trusting infinity, i end up having to trust menalque by default too. there is no point otherwise.

[Something_Smart]

No conclusions does not equal no solving.

Infinity and Menalque being scum together did cross my mind. It would explain the two of them writing each other off as town for pretty questionable reasons, and I do feel like Infinity's play today has been pretty gross even though I want to trust skitter and Menalque on him.

The reason I'm so stuck is that I don't feel good killing anyone in the redirector group, and yet I strongly feel we should kill someone in the redirector group today.

[Infinity 324]

What about my play today haven’t you liked?

[Something_Smart]

Jumping on lilith immediately, pushing Menalque and then immediately backtracking him to locktown, and then jumping on literally everyone else in the redirector bracket, most notably sheeping Hoopla's stupid case on me that she soon after admitted was bad.

And all that playing the victim stuff ("oh nobody will listen to me") is unhelpful. People are listening to you, they just don't AGREE with you, probably because your worldview is heavily based on gut reads.

[davesaz]

sure working with mena and hoopla is our best bet

For losing.

[Infinity 324]

@s_s Do you at least see the conflict that’s happening in my head? Idk. My goal is to get a group of townies to vote scum together, I think what I’ve done has mostly been a reasonable attempt to accomplish that. Honestly you make a decent amount of sense as scum from a mechanics perspective fmpov (in the redirector bracket, high in the draft making redirector more likely, reasonably likely to no-kill or kill mena n1). The latter two points hoopla brought up which were the most convincing to me. Skitter and gut are the only reasons I’m townreading you atm.

[Infinity 324]

I’ll try to stop playing the victim, I know from y’all’s PoV you don’t know to trust me and that’s ok. I’m just trying to contribute what I can to the game given my skills as a mafia player.

[davesaz]

on another note, i'm annoyed peta/dave won't entertain me conversationally about a more indepth solve, but i guess we just need a scumflip to get motivation going again.

I've been physically not here for a lot of the last 48 hours.

I don't town read anyone RN but that's a different problem stemming from the awful shape we're in.

[petapan]

high in the draft making redirector more likely

i had been thinking on this and was going to say something but i'm too tired to draft a post tonight, but - at pick #5? it doesn't feel as likely. it's good as a preventative play for scum but doesn't have as much utility and there's a pretty decent chance you won't get it. and from there you have to assemble a potential team for him and i'm not sure there are many that make sense, but i don't have time to get into that now. aiming at cop makes more sense as a flier on a later pick where you might not expect to get it anyway

[davesaz]

Why is redirector being discussed at all?

[Infinity 324]

@Peta Yeah you might be right.

[Something_Smart]

@s_s Do you at least see the conflict that’s happening in my head?

I see why it's plausible as coming from town, of course, but it still seems weird and makes more sense as coming from scum than from town.

I still want to trust Menalque and skitter on you, and I have been historically bad at reading you, but I think peta is town and you and Menalque both townread each other, so either I'm wrong about peta, or one of you is wrong about the other, or you're both scum. That's the conflict that's happening in MY head.

[Infinity 324]

How do you feel about voting bird?

[petapan]

Why is redirector being discussed at all?

have you not been reading? there's mechanically confirmed to be a redirector (or a scum cop but w/e), since tgp tried to take cop and didn't get it, and it's in one of me/smart/infinity/menalque. nice little bit of mechanical information for you, the most we're likely to get.

[Something_Smart]

How do you feel about voting bird?

Seems like we would only get the votes to execute bird iff he's town. And if he's town then we're in lylo with the same fustercluck we've got today.

This is why I'd like to execute in the redirector group today.

[petapan]

and the one last thing i'll fire off here before i force myself to log off, i know dave's pick is real, barring screwy roleswap shenanigans that i have no reason to believe scum would pull because i hadn't claimed my pick, and so i find it super hard to believe scum took watcher with probably their first pick in the draft while aiming for the cop slot later. would just be a bizarre drafting strategy.

[Infinity 324]

How do you feel about voting bird?

Seems like we would only get the votes to execute bird iff he's town. And if he's town then we're in lylo with the same fustercluck we've got today.

This is why I'd like to execute in the redirector group today.

Yeah I just feel like almost anyone we can get the votes for here is town but *shrug*

[Hoopla]

and the one last thing i'll fire off here before i force myself to log off, i know dave's pick is real, barring screwy roleswap shenanigans that i have no reason to believe scum would pull because i hadn't claimed my pick, and so i find it super hard to believe scum took watcher with probably their first pick in the draft while aiming for the cop slot later. would just be a bizarre drafting strategy.

this is actually a good point.

if dave is scum, why as a team take 1s-commuter/1s-watcher while going for the cop/1s-redirector with a lower pick, given the main value of taking cop/redirector is as a defensive blocking play. wouldn't scum want to take cop at pick 4?

i think the only way dave is scum is if peta & dave have gone all in with corroborating claims. dave can only be scum if peta is.

[the worst]

quack