Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[petapan]

well, in short: you're claimed jailkeeper, there was no kill night 1 and there's no claimed commuter or doc/rb. i am assuming scum would not no-kill gambit, since you were not in the game until now. do you have the list of who lilith targeted from the mod? want to confirm the targets before anything else

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I will ask ducky for what Lili has been up to.

[petapan]

nancy was supposed to have asked for the actions i dunno where the holdup is

but in the meantime, a list of the claims:

lilith - jailkeeper
davesaz - 1-shot watcher
something_smart - vt, went for rolecop
infinity 324 - vt, went for night 3 vig
petapan - vt, went for 1-shot watcher
pine/menalque - vt, went for jk
jacksonvirgo/not_mafia - neighborizer
penguinpower - vt, went for fruit vendor
hoopla - vt, went for cop

TGP also said he went for cop, meaning that since there is no cop claim, it's likely that there is a mafia redirector in {me, smart, infinity, menalque}. that is the current main quandary from my point of view. i'm not having an easy time reading those 3 players and i feel like the game hinges on who is mafia among them

[Menalque]

Hi pooky

[Menalque]

I'll see what you do

I have a heavy pre-disposition to viewing you as scum tho, and that whatever you're doing is playing to a scum wincon and I think have valid reasons to treat you that way

idk, I think you and pooky are both competent as scum, so I don't think you'll be able to project town sufficiently to get me to TR you but we'll see I suppose

MENA MENA MENA MENA

Hi peta!!! <3

oh wow, guess I don’t get exclamation marks or a heart then :sadmena:

[Smoke and Mirrors]

oh wow, guess I don’t get exclamation marks or a heart then :sadmena:

YOU WERE LITERALLY THE FIRST PERSON I SAID HI TOOO!!!


ok got my night actions

n1:
Mena <3

n2:
Infinity

n3:
Not Mafia

[Menalque]

Those are just such weird choices

Such weeeeeeeeirs choices

They are so so hard to actually believe as real choices that lilith would believe are the best choices

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Mena can you pls give me a 5 min cliffnotes on the game thx :3

[Best Bird]

roughly:

initial wagons were lili and uncrowned. lili was still the dominant wagon when I repped in towards the end of D1 I think, but it might have already been changing towards DGB by that point. I entered hard pushing infinity and got some traction on that, then he started doing things and I (maybe foolishy) decided he'd be easier to read on later days than super-inactive DGB, so I switched there and that put it over the threshold of support it needed and she got flipped. worth noting that like 5 slots who voted her (incl mine) are all still alive today lol

then there was no kill on N1, skitt started D2 pushing me and that picked up traction quickly, and that traction was strengthened when lili claimed a JK on me and a lot of people started talking about it being a guilty because "lol who'd kill mena N1?" then I started being very town and the wagon dissipated, and we were working on a theory of there being a doc as well who'd made a save on someone else the same night that I was JK'd. uncrowned was very obvtown and wanted TGP, who didn't seem very town and so a bunch of us voted him. before he died, he said he'd gone for cop but he flipped VT. this will be important later.

that night uncrowned gets killed, TGP and uncrowned were both shouting for dunn to die when they did, and he'd also done very little so I pushed him hard and consistently throughout D3. skitter argues we should do you instead, but people aren't that interested. dunn gets flipped, comes out VT, and he confirms that your slot is JK because he asked for tracker and flipped as VT. skitter gets murderised during the night, brings us to today. I've been mostly pushing you, but we also have a fucky thing going on with claims where there's confirmed scum in (me, NM, infinity, Dave, peta, S_S) because one of them has to have the cop/redirector slot but nobody is claiming it. as we've done massclaim, the person who has it is claiming scum.

of that pool, NM is claiming neighbouriser (confirmed to be in the game bc dunn said he'd been neighboured on N2) which I think is not clearing but which hoopla thinks is bc scum have never chosen neighbouriser as a role before. then Dave is claiming 1s watcher, and peta is claiming VT who went for the 1s watcher but got VT, so he's saying that the redirector has to be in (me, S_S, infinity). this is troublesome because Dave has an incredibly bad iso (especially today where he's done almost nothing but keeps insisting I'm scum) and peta doesn't/sort of feels town but is now very much tied to Dave (although is saying that he doesn't think the 1s watcher is clearing for Dave, just that he wants to go for the redirector instead bc... ??). infinity seemed a lot like scum to me on D1, but now seems towny, and I did a gambit where I fake claimed cop and thought his and hoopla's reactions were good. S_S is scummy but skitter had him as strong town which is making me not want to flip him.

basically, hoopla, me, infinity, peta have all been playing the game quite hard

S_S and Dave have each done a bit

Best Bird (the penguin) and N_M (predictably) and your slot have all done basically nothing but can't be all the scum unless there's something weird happening where NM is the redirector fake claiming neighbouriser, and Best Bird is the real neighbouriser, and your "block" on NM last night was to disguise this fact

I have now contributed greatly.

[Menalque]

Mena can you pls give me a 5 min cliffnotes on the game thx :3

So uh

Comms are going well in the hydra pt then? :p

[the worst]

vote count 4.11

Menalque (2):

Not_Mafia, davesaz

Smoke and Mirrors (1):

Menalque

petapan (1):

Infinity 324

Not voting

: Something_Smart, Best Bird, Smoke and Mirrors, petapan, Hoopla

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-26 17:00:00)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

mod notes

:
- quack

[davesaz]

I think those are fairly reasonable actions from a mechanics point of view.

Here are more complete notes on the picks. It makes sense to me, hopefully it makes sense to you.

lilith2013 2 claim JK (Menalque, Infinity, Not_Mafia)
Dunnstral 3 VT tried to get JK
skitter30 6 UB(Inherited PGO)
davesaz 8 watcher
Something_Smart 9 VT, claims went for rolecop
Uncrowned 14 town vengeful / n3 vig
Infinity 324 23, VT, claims went for n3 vig
petapan 1000000 VT, tried to get watcher
DrippingGoofball 5 town PGO / 1 shot vig (1st elim -> backup)
Pine->mena 5 VT, claims went for JK
JacksonVirgo->not_mafia 4 neighborizer, no counter
TheGoldenParadox 4 VT tried to get cop
PenguinPower 4 VT, tried to get FV
Hoopla 4 tried to get cop

Working assumption is that the no-kill N1 was due to lilith JKing Mena. I think it is most likely that Mena was blocked attempting the kill.
1. We know that town attempted to get cop late in the list and didn't.
2. If there were a town cop earlier in the list, it would be 100% better to have claimed along with any results. Therefore mafia got the role pair.
3. It appears from the information that we have, that NOBODY tried to get doctor / roleblocker -- or mafia ALSO has that role. They are informed either way.
4. Given mafia has the cop role pair, and knows there is no doctor (or they have the roleblocker), the next highest priority for a NK is another investigative (watcher / tracker). Choosing to kill the 10th player in the list when they can get either a PR or information earlier in the list makes it

very unlikely

that Mena was the kill target.
5. Someone will argue, "but good player" -- I don't care about that. In a (near) role madness game, you always follow the mechanics first!

I very much want to SR Something_Smart for not going full bore on the above logic. Hoopla too, to a somewhat lesser extent only because I don't know who she is really having only been in a couple games with her. I don't know the source of the meme and have never bothered to ask to be filled in on the back story.

[davesaz]

Actually, I might have lost track of what Hoopla thinks, so make that "suspicious IF she isn't all over this logic". I'm very certain that S_S hasn't jumped all over it.

[davesaz]

In addition to #4, mafia also knew that both of the vig roles were in town hands, which makes it even less likely they'd go for #10 in the draft on n1.

[Hoopla]

Skimming the last couple days. I didn't have a note of tgp pick. On mobile and it's hard to post much that way for me. This info suggests a solution that I'm pretty confident in. I'll write more when I can use more than one finger.

wait, you only text with one finger?

[Hoopla]

Actually, I might have lost track of what Hoopla thinks, so make that "suspicious IF she isn't all over this logic". I'm very certain that S_S hasn't jumped all over it.

yes, it's good logic to explain why mena is scum from a mechanics perspective. my internal battle isn't about whether or not this logic is right, it's about whether to listen to the logic over reads. that is the dilemma. discounting mechanics, mena is one of the towniest by play.

In addition to #4, mafia also knew that both of the vig roles were in town hands, which makes it even less likely they'd go for #10 in the draft on n1.

however, this logic doesn't make sense. we eliminated the PGO/1-shot vig slot on D1, and the other vig (if town didn't choose vengeful) isn't active until N3. so scum wouldn't have been scared of either vig on N1.

actually, now that i think about it, scum wouldn't have been scared of any roles N1 really, as they blocked cop,

knew

doc/RB didn't exist from their informed information, and the vigs weren't a threat. if there was ever any N1 to deviate from the status-quo move of shooting for PR's high in the draft (and instead shooting a strong player), it would be in this specific set of circumstances: where PR's are a low threat.

you could also argue that given the UB slot was out of scum's control and we eliminated a PGO D1, scum may have been fearing a high draft pick arming themselves with a PGO shot. shooting mena (who was one slot below DGB) is a plausible NK choice as he's a strong player guaranteed not to be PGO.

[Hoopla]

you could also argue that given the UB slot was out of scum's control and we eliminated a PGO D1, scum may have been fearing a high draft pick arming themselves with a PGO shot. shooting mena (who was one slot below DGB) is a plausible NK choice as he's a strong player guaranteed not to be PGO.

i think i've just talked myself into town!mena from a mechanics perspective (not for sure obviously, but much more than before).

can someone (SS, peta, infinity) chime in and tell me how persuasive the above thinking is?

[Not_Mafia]

Skimming the last couple days. I didn't have a note of tgp pick. On mobile and it's hard to post much that way for me. This info suggests a solution that I'm pretty confident in. I'll write more when I can use more than one finger.

wait, you only text with one finger?

He's a boomer

[Hoopla]

also, welcome to the game smoke & mirrors!

looking forward to doing business with you.

[Hoopla]

He's a boomer

hey!

who would you vote if menalque isn't happening today?

[Infinity 324]

you could also argue that given the UB slot was out of scum's control and we eliminated a PGO D1, scum may have been fearing a high draft pick arming themselves with a PGO shot. shooting mena (who was one slot below DGB) is a plausible NK choice as he's a strong player guaranteed not to be PGO.

i think i've just talked myself into town!mena from a mechanics perspective (not for sure obviously, but much more than before).

can someone (SS, peta, infinity) chime in and tell me how persuasive the above thinking is?

Yeah that’s pretty convincing honestly. They could shoot lilith, since she’s unlikely to be UB (taking UB first is a bit odd). But lilith was decently scumread on d1, so maybe they didn’t feel the need.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

nancy was supposed to have asked for the actions i dunno where the holdup is

but in the meantime, a list of the claims:

lilith - jailkeeper
davesaz - 1-shot watcher
something_smart - vt, went for rolecop
infinity 324 - vt, went for night 3 vig
petapan - vt, went for 1-shot watcher
pine/menalque - vt, went for jk
jacksonvirgo/not_mafia - neighborizer
penguinpower - vt, went for fruit vendor
hoopla - vt, went for cop

TGP also said he went for cop, meaning that since there is no cop claim, it's likely that there is a mafia redirector in {me, smart, infinity, menalque}. that is the current main quandary from my point of view. i'm not having an easy time reading those 3 players and i feel like the game hinges on who is mafia among them

Duckling lives in Australia duh.

The role pairs

:
Only ONE ROLE PER PAIR can exist in the game.

Night 3 Vigilante	OR	Vengeful
1-shot Vigilante	OR	1-shot PGO (active)
Cop	OR	1-shot Redirector
1-shot Commuter	OR	1-shot Watcher
Doctor	OR	Roleblocker
Universal Backup	OR	Role Cop
Neighborizer	OR	Fruit Vendor
Jailkeeper	OR	Tracker

[/area][/quote]

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think those are fairly reasonable actions from a mechanics point of view.

Here are more complete notes on the picks. It makes sense to me, hopefully it makes sense to you.

lilith2013 2 claim JK (Menalque, Infinity, Not_Mafia)
Dunnstral 3 VT tried to get JK
skitter30 6 UB(Inherited PGO)
davesaz 8 watcher
Something_Smart 9 VT, claims went for rolecop
Uncrowned 14 town vengeful / n3 vig
Infinity 324 23, VT, claims went for n3 vig
petapan 1000000 VT, tried to get watcher
DrippingGoofball 5 town PGO / 1 shot vig (1st elim -> backup)
Pine->mena 5 VT, claims went for JK
JacksonVirgo->not_mafia 4 neighborizer, no counter
TheGoldenParadox 4 VT tried to get cop
PenguinPower 4 VT, tried to get FV
Hoopla 4 tried to get cop

Working assumption is that the no-kill N1 was due to lilith JKing Mena. I think it is most likely that Mena was blocked attempting the kill.
1. We know that town attempted to get cop late in the list and didn't.
2. If there were a town cop earlier in the list, it would be 100% better to have claimed along with any results. Therefore mafia got the role pair.
3. It appears from the information that we have, that NOBODY tried to get doctor / roleblocker -- or mafia ALSO has that role. They are informed either way.
4. Given mafia has the cop role pair, and knows there is no doctor (or they have the roleblocker), the next highest priority for a NK is another investigative (watcher / tracker). Choosing to kill the 10th player in the list when they can get either a PR or information earlier in the list makes it

very unlikely

that Mena was the kill target.
5. Someone will argue, "but good player" -- I don't care about that. In a (near) role madness game, you always follow the mechanics first!

I very much want to SR Something_Smart for not going full bore on the above logic. Hoopla too, to a somewhat lesser extent only because I don't know who she is really having only been in a couple games with her. I don't know the source of the meme and have never bothered to ask to be filled in on the back story.

Can someone please summarize all of this for me?

[petapan]

you could also argue that given the UB slot was out of scum's control and we eliminated a PGO D1, scum may have been fearing a high draft pick arming themselves with a PGO shot. shooting mena (who was one slot below DGB) is a plausible NK choice as he's a strong player guaranteed not to be PGO.

i think i've just talked myself into town!mena from a mechanics perspective (not for sure obviously, but much more than before).

can someone (SS, peta, infinity) chime in and tell me how persuasive the above thinking is?

based on what we know, there was little reason for scum to fear any power role, so i could see scum shooting who they thought had the most plausibly threatening reads. but, i don't know, as intimidating as menalque's outbursts are i still can't understand why he's consistently pushing back against the lilith slot. a day ago he was practically screaming bloody murder that you and dave were scum, and now he's back to saying it's them. It can't be all 3 of you. i am continually bothered at how he's pushing outside on certain players. it's just illogical to think a nokill gambit was what was attempted night 1 and i don't think he's a completely irrational player. and so the way he keeps tryin to push there looks scummy to me.

every time something_smart actually opens up, it makes sense to me, and he's certainly been the most reasonable with his posts. i get a little worried with the fencesittiness of it, though, because the "oh gosh, everyone seems town, i'm not sure what to do (because i am scum)" is a thing i've seen before. his summary of his issues with infinity today in 3584 was good and verbalized some of the discomfort i have had with him. but then, i don't know, is infinity being all over the place scummy? i feel scum are more prone to pick an angle and stick with it.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

also, welcome to the game smoke & mirrors!

looking forward to doing business with you.

Thanks, I wanted to play this from the beginning not start on D4.