In post 1647, Dunnstral wrote:There really wasn'tIn post 1646, Gloria Cleary wrote:there was heavy resistance to Dunn.
I hopped up to e-2 instantly and then some people switched
Yeah but they were town so I’m not getting your point? Why would scum put up resistance to a town wagon in a game where all towns are vts?In post 1648, Dunnstral wrote:And the resistance was in fact to tgp
Why would scum want to save TGP though? I don’t see how that makes any sense?In post 1649, Infinity 324 wrote:The probability of a given set of 4 people currently alive having at least 1 scum (assuming 3 scum total) is about 75%. If dunn is scum, scum are just as likely to vote dunn or TGP since it doesn’t matter to them who gets limmed. If dunn is scum, scum would almost never vote dunn. Since 4 people excluding myself voted dunn, that group is likely to have at least 1 scum, so dunn is likely town.Gloria Cleary wrote:Statistically, scum is far more likely to be on TOWN!TGP wagon, since there was heavy resistance to Dunn. Why would scum try to derail a wagon on TGP? That makes absolutely no sense.In post 1644, Infinity 324 wrote:It’s more that scum would almost never vote dunn in that situation, and statistically there’s very likely at least one scum on that wagon (of 5 at its height, I believe)
Also yeah, there was almost no resistance to dunn.
So what you’re arguing is the votes and push on Dunn is from town, because I don’t understand what else you could be saying here? This is a game where all towns are vts. It isn’t a game where scum thought TGP was some secret PR because that’s really the only way your theory makes any sense. If scum know they’re getting a guaranteed mislaunch in TGP, they don’t try to derail that in a game where town are all vts, so whatever Dunn is, I read the votes/push on him as more likely to be coming from town than scum.In post 1652, Infinity 324 wrote:I mean whywouldn'tthey? I can think of a few reasons why they would vote dunn there: it fits with their reads, they think TGP will be easier to mislim later, they think dunn could be more of a threat to scum, etc. Point being, they certainly wouldn't vote dunn if dunn was scum.
In post 1655, Infinity 324 wrote:I just gave 3 reasons why scum might vote dunn in that situation.
In post 1652, Infinity 324 wrote:I mean whywouldn'tthey? I can think of a few reasons why they would vote dunn there: it fits with tgheir reads, they think TGP will be easier to mislim later, they think dunn could be more of a threat to scum, etc.Point being, they certainly wouldn't vote dunn if dunn was scum.
Alternative theory: Dunn could be scum with a buddy trying to push him for towncred but because of TGP wagon, I think Dunn push was more than likely town if he’s scum. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game where scum tried to derail a counterwagon to town in all vanilla setup.In post 1659, Infinity 324 wrote:You might be right that the act of voting dunn when town!TGP is getting run up is more likely to come from town, but the point still stands that a group of 4 players (fmpov) is likely to have 1 scum without mechanical evidence.
In post 1627, Infinity 324 wrote:VOTE: pooky I’ll talk about this a bit later, but I saw some scum!pooky aggression with their push on dunn before the elim. I also am not sure why they weren’t more concerned about a TGP elim given the above theory since it implies that TGP is town.
Too much on probablility hereIn post 1658, Infinity 324 wrote:I think we’re talking past each other so let’s work through this.
We have 4 possibilities:
There was at least 1 scum on dunn and dunn is scum: we both agree this is unlikely
There was at least 1 scum on dunn and dunn is town: I think this is the most likely scenario
There was no scum on dunn and dunn is scum: you think this is the most likely scenario, but I’m not convinced; it requires 4 players other than me to all be town, which is unlikely just by probability
There was no scum on dunn and dunn is town: also a possibility but unlikely by probability
Dunno if this is Hoppy</3 or Dunn dunn duuuunn still.In post 1633, Gloria Cleary wrote:I don’t know why, every towngame I ‘ve read of his, he has done more than he is here. He’s only given one townread so far: Flea and two maybe three scumreads: TGP, and now Pooky. And even that post he made about launching players due to their post count. he can’t bother to make actual reads or what?In post 1622, skitter30 wrote:sorry is this about dunn or hopkirk? cuz i thought dunn at first and i would in no way agree with this assessment of dunn at all ^In post 1619, Gloria Cleary wrote:He isn’t solvey and sorting players like he usually does as town
At any rate Isis is a terrible vote. I strongly tr her pre-flip and it’s actually even stronger post-flip.
I'm ngl, i kinda expected a meatier case on pooks from Infnity? Like I get the vibe and gut feeling and the aggression thing... and pooky isn't being as chill and fun as they were in DC - that said I'm not playing the same either so I can't really call it AI... ~Flea
In post 1663, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:pushing dunn isnt trying to stop a tgp elimn atjl. ktjdjrndnfnrjrndjdj
In post 1664, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:r y serrusosusj
Noraa makes every game fun. Noraa isn’t in this game. That said, these posts give me Death Curse pings.In post 1665, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:im going to bed. u go to bed too then wake up and read what u r sayinf to me
Can you stop talking about anything other than you in this game or who’s pushing you etc. and actually talk about some other players and actually make reads?In post 1667, Dunnstral wrote:Too much on probablility hereIn post 1658, Infinity 324 wrote:I think we’re talking past each other so let’s work through this.
We have 4 possibilities:
There was at least 1 scum on dunn and dunn is scum: we both agree this is unlikely
There was at least 1 scum on dunn and dunn is town: I think this is the most likely scenario
There was no scum on dunn and dunn is scum: you think this is the most likely scenario, but I’m not convinced; it requires 4 players other than me to all be town, which is unlikely just by probability
There was no scum on dunn and dunn is town: also a possibility but unlikely by probability
There was never really a case against me in the first place, it doesn't really matter whether it was town or scum that jumped on me (though I agree it's unlikely that they were all town)
So I'm probably going to sort you town for now.
