Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Best Bird]

Where are you getting that I think dave is town?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I don't like neighbourhoods, my role is already proven by dunn

Makes no sense why you wouldn't allow someone access to the neighborhood to confirm things you've said here just because you "don't like neighborhoods."

Well we know the role does exist but so far no one else has counterclaimed it, so only way he’s lying is if that were to happen right?

[Best Bird]

Confirm things that were said in the neighborhood that n_m has repeated here. Not confirm the role.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Where are you getting that I think dave is town?

I will vote any of SM/SS/infinity or Dave

if he keeps being dumb.

[Best Bird]

But sure, go ahead and assume something without giving a chance for a response.

That's the nancy head, right? Right.

[Something_Smart]

How are you getting that from my post?

You listed four people and said they were all town, implying that the other three are scum. Was that not your intention?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

dumb
[ duhm ]SHOW IPA


SEE SYNONYMS FOR dumb
adjective, dumb·er, dumb·est.
lacking intelligence or good judgment; stupid; dull-witted.
lacking the power of speech (offensive when applied to humans):
a dumb animal.
temporarily unable to speak:
dumb with astonishment.
refraining from any or much speech; silent.
made, done, etc., without speech.
SEE MORE
Verb Phrases
dumb down, Informal. to make or become less intellectual, simpler, or less sophisticated:
to dumb down a textbook; American movies have dumbed down.

[Best Bird]

I AM LITERALLY TELLING YOU WHAT I MEANT WITH MY USAGE OF DUMB NANCY

good god

[Smoke and Mirrors]

How are you getting that from my post?

You listed four people and said they were all town, implying that the other three are scum. Was that not your intention?

I said “probably” based off of current reads. Read my post again. Obviously the only slot I’m sure is town is us.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I AM LITERALLY TELLING YOU WHAT I MEANT WITH MY USAGE OF DUMB NANCY

good god

So you think Dave is hedging about his shot because he’s lying about his role?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If we have 1-shots that are

more useful the smaller the player list gets

, we give them room and don't out them so that scum don't know who the real danger is.

Crumb, and philosophy. Guess what, I play hold-em. Also a crumb. Have not used, and would have wasted it twice so far if I had tried to.

Oh, you’re hardclaiming you didn’t use it? Why not, considering this is Elo? When were you planning to use it then?

[Infinity 324]

Bird: s_s or me, go

[Best Bird]

sssssssssssssssssssssss

[Infinity 324]

Dave, n_m: are you leaning towards me or s_s being scum

[Hoopla]

Confirm things that were said in the neighborhood that n_m has repeated here. Not confirm the role.

oh yes, i forgot dunn claimed that "someone" neighbourised him. this confirms the role exists but not necessarily that N_M has it.

for N_M to be fakeclaiming, it requires scum to have roleswapped, and one of the VT claims to actually be the neighbouriser. i don't see the benefit in playing such tricks, because if the real mafia neighbouriser was ever eliminated, it proves N_M to be scum.

the only motivation i can think of for scum to do this, would be if scum felt N_M was a likely PoE candidate and wanted to bolster this slot's standing in the game by giving him a very town looking claim.

the above^ seems really unlikely, as this scenario still requires a mafia neighbouriser to exist elsewhere in the playerlist. if N_M is scum he's almost certainly a mafia neighbouriser.

[Hoopla]

i'd really love for dave & N_M to quit stalling and lay out out their suspicions (or at the very least pick between SS & infinity), because i am itching to say my piece and reveal my interpretation of the gamestate.

[Something_Smart]

for N_M to be fakeclaiming, it requires scum to have roleswapped, and one of the VT claims to actually be the neighbouriser. i don't see the benefit in playing such tricks, because if the real mafia neighbouriser was ever eliminated, it proves N_M to be scum.

the benefit is if N_M is the redirector

[Not_Mafia]

I'm just gonna sheep Menalque

[Hoopla]

the benefit is if N_M is the redirector

hmm

yeah maybe. but it still requires scum going all in on winning the game in 7p ELo, as any scum being eliminated would probably unravel such an intricate net of fakeclaiming (not to mention, one more day of N_M not claiming a neighbourise target would be absurd). usually scum are more inclined to simply bus the weakest link than to go all in with such a play.

[Hoopla]

I'm just gonna sheep Menalque

um, which posts? i'm pretty sure he considered literally every slot as scum at some point yesterday.

[davesaz]

When were you planning to use it then?

When I'm sure I can guess who the NK is, of course.
Like I said, I already guessed wrong twice (which would have wasted it) and a wasted shot is even more worthless than an unused one.
It's mathematically correct and that's all I care about.

[davesaz]

My choice will probably be the opposite of Best Bird's choice.

[Hoopla]

alright, i have a busy weekend coming up, so i can't hold in my thoughts much longer.

lets talk about yesterday's wagons. i found this to be a rather critical juncture:

vote count 4.15

Menalque

(3):

Not_Mafia, davesaz,

petapan

petapan

(3):

Infinity 324,

Menalque

, Hoopla

Not voting

: Something_Smart, Best Bird, Smoke and Mirrors

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

interestingly, this stalemate occurred between two town wagons with nobody choosing to push either through. you'd think if there was two scum there amongst the non-voters {SS/BB/S&M}, they could easily push through one of these wagons through. as a matter of fact, given how single-mindedly defiant davesaz was of menalque being scum, if scum managed to push through a peta mis-elim, they could simply carry dave/mena into a 7p ELo and win. the fact scum didn't take this opportunity implies that there is less than two scum in {SS/BB/S&M} OR that a dave/mena combination in ELo wasn't winning (ergo dave is scum).

anyhow, as a consequence of the stalemate in VC 4.15, a late speedwagon was attempted on SS:

vote count 4.18

Something_Smart (4):

Menalque

,

petapan

, Best Bird, Hoopla

Menalque

(3):

Not_Mafia, davesaz, Something_Smart

petapan

(1):

Infinity 324

Not voting

: Smoke and Mirrors

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

lets first look at it from the perspective that SS is scum:

given BB had opportunities to jump on mena or peta during the stalemate, but instead waited for this spontaneous speedwagon to commit to his vote, i find it hard to see that BB is scum with SS. remember, BB/SS were two of the non-voters during the stalemate in 4.15 - they could have easily pushed through one of peta/mena without garnering any suspicion.

it was at this point, that S&M evened the ledger with a vote on mena, pushing him quite hard. from timing alone, this move has good equity with being a partner for SS. however, if SS/S&M are scum together, it means they passed up on pushing through a peta mis-elim (in 4.15) that would win them the game in 7p ELo if mena/dave was a town/town pairing.

as such, if SS/S&M are scum together, then dave is almost certainly the third partner. i don't see why SS/S&M just sit back and not push through mena or peta during the stalemate when it was wide open for them. this specific combo gets pretty gross however, as it means scum must have taken JK with first pick (instead of vig), no-killed N1 AND taken 1-shot watcher. that is a lot of odd stuff to sign off on.

occam's razor: is the scum-team exactly SS/S&M/dave or are other scum-team explanations more likely?

well, if we remove S&M as a partner for SS, it allows for the possibility of infinity to be paired with SS, which i think is a possibility that few are considering, but given he sat back during the critical moment of the new stalemate between mena & SS:

vote count 4.19

Something_Smart (4):

Menalque

,

petapan

, Best Bird, Hoopla

Menalque

(4):

Not_Mafia, davesaz, Something_Smart, Smoke and Mirrors

petapan

(1):

Infinity 324

Not voting

:

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

i think him being partnered with SS is a real possibility, given he didn't hammer there. there's no way he could logically justify hammering mena given he was infinity's top town read. granted, SS was another of infinity's town reads, so if he's scum, he sort of left himself in a no-win bind where he can't justify a vote on either.

i don't know, i've been feeling pretty good about infinity for most of the game, but the fact we haven't eliminated any scum yet is making me consider things i wouldn't normally.

i was also trying to think why scum would NK peta last night. i suppose he did look quite townie in his plaintive wallowing near deadline, but his hammer on mena was pretty awful. so i don't know why scum wouldn't leave him alive as a viable mis-elim. one theory i've been considering is that scum wanted to force a fake 50/50 where SS/infinity are scum together, and that eliminating one will pseudo-clear the other from the perspective of "why would scum narrow down the redirector pool" like that.

although, the counter-argument to that is, if we eliminate the scum in the fake 50/50 who was a goon and not redirector, it guarantees that the other must be mafia redirector. yeah, there's no way scum give us that 50/50.

okay, so i'm ruling out SS/infinity scumteams too.

so, if SS isn't scum with infinity or BB, it leaves these as the only possible SS scumteams:

SS/dave/S&M
SS/dave/N_M

i've talked about the above combination. the latter combination still has problems too, namely N_M being neighbouriser - a role that scum has never picked in 13 games. although, if this is the scumteam, it means we have a town JK which gives us a 50/50 shot of preventing the NK tonight, and then a guaranteed no-kill the night after which would yield us an extra mis-elim. so, if SS is scum, we have a 50/50 shot of the SS/dave/N_M scumteam self-resolving. regardless, the elim sequence is SS --> dave --> then if S&M/N_M hasn't resolved we decide.

~~

this whole post was from the perspective of SS being scum. later in the day, i'll be considering the game from a scum!infinity/town!SS perspective and see which scumteams make the most sense.

[Infinity 324]

I'm confused why scum!s_s killed peta, forcing a 1v1 between me and him, and his buddies aren't just hard pushing me. It almost felt like they were waiting for one of us to vote the other. I know s_s has to be scum barring a conspiracy, but I'm willing to consider it here.

[Best Bird]

good post from hoopla