Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Best Bird]

My choice will probably be the opposite of Best Bird's choice.

[Hoopla]

this post i'll be thinking about the scum!infinity universes.

lets work out which scum-teams we can straight away discount:

almost certainly we can rule out is SS. as i mentioned before, creating a 50/50 between the two of them seems an absurd gambit, given that if we eliminated the right one of SS/infinity today, it would confirm the other as scum. so, i really don't see why they would risk that.

for the same logic as i mentioned in my SS-scum post, i don't think two scum are within {SS/BB/S&M} unless the scumteam is specifically SS/S&M/dave, as scum could simply take the win on offer with a peta mis-elim and a dave/mena 7p ELo. so, if infinity isn't scum with SS, and there's one (or none) scum in {SS/BB/S&M}, an infinity scumteam would require one or two of {dave/N_M} to be scum.

this leaves us with the possible infinity scumteams of:

1) infinity/BB/N_M
2) infinity/BB/dave
3) infinity/S&M/dave
4) infinity/S&M/N_M
5) infinity/dave/N_M

my thoughts:

1) two unlikely events (scum neighbouriser + this requires BB/N_M doubling up in the 4's)
2) seems viable
3) one unlikely event (no-kill N1)
4) two unlikely events (scum neighbouriser + no-kill N1)
5) one unlikely event (scum neighbouriser)

options 2, 3 & 5 seem like the only ones worth considering. or at the very least, i favour testing universes with the least amount of screwy things happening. the less leaps of faith required the better. then hopefully, we can draft an elimination sequence that has good equity in the most amount of probable universes.

however, i've kind of just come to the strange realisation that in scum!infinity and scum!SS universes, i don't see a likely scumteam that doesn't contain dave, so it almost makes me want to ignore the 50/50 and elim there?

[Hoopla]

thinking about this more.

in order to get dave eliminated today, it'd require whoever is town of SS/infinity to turn their back on a guilty, given whoever is innocent in this pair, knows the other is scum (unless N_M is somehow redirector). it's probably unreasonable for me to ask for whoever is town out of SS/infinity to ignore the knowledge they have today from their perspective.

we need to solve the 50/50 today.

out of curiosity:

@SS
do you agree with my PoE in the scum!infinity universe?

@infinity
do you agree with my PoE in the scum!SS universe?

obviously, you both have a bit of extra legwork to do, as i'm not confirmed to either of you. but i get the impression i'm not going to get much solving attempts from dave/BB/N_M, so i want to go over this with both of you while you're both still alive. hopefully i haven't missed anything obvious or am ruling certain events out too easily.

[Infinity 324]

I'm confused why scum!s_s killed peta, forcing a 1v1 between me and him, and his buddies aren't just hard pushing me. It almost felt like they were waiting for one of us to vote the other. I know s_s has to be scum barring a conspiracy, but I'm willing to consider it here.

What do you think about this hoopla?

I'm pretty confident you're town here but I will look at some stuff tomorrow. 4197 seems to make sense.

[Something_Smart]

it's probably unreasonable for me to ask for whoever is town out of SS/infinity to ignore the knowledge they have today from their perspective.

There's a difference between ignoring information and trying to work together with your team. Although executing Infinity is clearly best from my POV, there's no reason I should expect everyone else to share that view.

[Hoopla]

I'm confused why scum!s_s killed peta, forcing a 1v1 between me and him, and his buddies aren't just hard pushing me. It almost felt like they were waiting for one of us to vote the other. I know s_s has to be scum barring a conspiracy, but I'm willing to consider it here.

What do you think about this hoopla?

I'm pretty confident you're town here but I will look at some stuff tomorrow. 4197 seems to make sense.

what would the conspiracy be? N_M being redirector? i admit, i haven't really thought about this possibility too much as it seems kind of farfetched.

for this to be true, it requires mafia to have a neighbouriser elsewhere. like, where can it be? dave's role is confirmed via peta's claim. it could be either of you/SS, but if either of you flip mafia neighbouriser, it confirms N_M as scum. the only realistic spot it could be is with BB, but that still requires BB/N_M to be doubled up scum on number 4.

you know, it actually would be a genius play if N_M was mafia redirector and BB was mafia neighbouriser and they swapped roles, as this hides the redirector below TGP's slot (and creates a false 50/50 between you/SS), while also giving N_M a very town looking claim. would also explain the woopsy-daisy of N_M not neighbourising anyone last night (because he can't).

[Hoopla]

man, that is a wild idea.

surely there's no way it can be

that

.

[Infinity 324]

Yeah that's what I was thinking. It's just a weird kill + n_m not neighborizing + all the slots that have scum equity are doing nothing rn. Third partner would be S&M/dave I guess, I lean towards S&M.

[Something_Smart]

you know, it actually would be a genius play if N_M was mafia redirector and BB was mafia neighbouriser and they swapped roles

I literally brought this up at the very start of the day, lol.

And I think if it is true it's a hell of a lot more likely with you than it is with BB.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

man, that is a wild idea.

surely there's no way it can be

that

.

But no one has CC’d NM and his role was confirmed by Dunn, so he has to be neighbourizer because if he weren’t someone else would be calling his bluff and confirming that they neighbourized instead of NM. Like I did in TSoW when scum!Bulge accused me of lying about being in a hood. All I had to do was to paraphrase a bunch of posts that were pretty much inconceivable for me to have made up.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Yeah that's what I was thinking. It's just a weird kill + n_m not neighborizing + all the slots that have scum equity

are doing nothing rn

. Third partner would be S&M/dave I guess, I lean towards S&M.

I hate to break it to you but I actually have life outside of mafia.

Notification

Venus and Mars has been prodded.

Feeling like Nancy and Shiro would try harder if they were scum

How did you possibly forget about this, Infinity?

And that quote was coming from a player who is actually familiar with my meta. He knows from playing with scum!me that I tend to be a tryhard as scum, where as as town, my activity levels are inconsistent depending on the game. Check out Merchant’s Dance, Coalition where I hyperposted. In MD, I actually reached 1100 posts.

As for Pooky, check our both Dung games where I was the one to carry for our hydra. Thanks for posting this though, even if it wasn’t what you intended.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

you know, it actually would be a genius play if N_M was mafia redirector and BB was mafia neighbouriser and they swapped roles

I literally brought this up at the very start of the day, lol.

And I think if it is true it's a hell of a lot more likely with you than it is with BB.

Wrt to any potential role swapping, there’s no actual evidence that scum redirected me. I suppose it’s definitely possible we just jk’d the wrong people but you’d think that perhaps at least one of them might have gotten redirected I know that actually did almost happen to me and RC in You’ve Got Mail. JK!FL protected us N2 but he was roleblocked, so we would have died if we hadn’t had used our commuter.

oh wow, guess I don’t get exclamation marks or a heart then :sadmena:

YOU WERE LITERALLY THE FIRST PERSON I SAID HI TOOO!!!


ok got my night actions

n1:
Mena <3

n2:
Infinity

n3:
Not Mafia

[Infinity 324]

How did you possibly forget about this, Infinity?

Did you expect me to remember that one post? Idk, if it's RL stuff it's NAI.

[Infinity 324]

Wrt to any potential role swapping, there’s no actual evidence that scum redirected me. I suppose it’s definitely possible we just jk’d the wrong people but you’d think that perhaps at least one of them might have gotten redirected I know that actually did almost happen to me and RC in You’ve Got Mail. JK!FL protected us N2 but he was roleblocked, so we would have died if we hadn’t had used our commuter.

The theory is that n_m is the redirector and hoopla or bird is the neighborizer, and n_m claimed neighborizer to fuck with town's math.

[Something_Smart]

Wrt to any potential role swapping, there’s no actual evidence that scum redirected me.

...why does that have anything to do with it?

The biggest issue in the roleswap is, how did they know N_M was going to be jailed N3. If the roleswap is real, then either you are also scum, or they were going to have N_M claim to have neighborized a buddy and instead they just improvised.

[davesaz]

Re 4197 any thought of a team including me is a loss for town.

[Infinity 324]

Do you disagree with it or do you think s_s is town?

[Infinity 324]

I will hate myself if we lose to S&M/n_m/bird because it fits with my reads so well but it seems so unlikely. Who came up with the no kill idea? The roleswapping idea? How did n_m know they'd get redirector so late?

Though S&M are ignoring that this is a pretty unique scum game where they're very likely to win if they don't do anything in Elo and me or s_s votes the other.

[Infinity 324]

interestingly, this stalemate occurred between two town wagons with nobody choosing to push either through. you'd think if there was two scum there amongst the non-voters {SS/BB/S&M}, they could easily push through one of these wagons through. as a matter of fact, given how single-mindedly defiant davesaz was of menalque being scum, if scum managed to push through a peta mis-elim, they could simply carry dave/mena into a 7p ELo and win. the fact scum didn't take this opportunity implies that there is less than two scum in {SS/BB/S&M} OR that a dave/mena combination in ELo wasn't winning (ergo dave is scum).

I'm not sure I totally agree with this reasoning actually. With s_s barely voting the whole game, and S&M just replacing in, voting here might look suspicious. I think scum were confident enough that town would be limmed anyway that they didn't feel the need to do anything.

[Infinity 324]

Menalque Infinity peta I guess, but I don't have to feel good about it.

I was the only one voting peta here.

[davesaz]

I think it's Something_Smart, Infinity, ?. The ? can be any low number, either 2 or 4 fits that pattern. If I refrain from paranoia (a struggle at the moment), then Hoopla and Smoke & Mirrors should be excluded from this. I prefer Best Bird over N_M for this team but it's a close call.

I also think it's still possible that the team is Hoopla, Best Bird, Not_Mafia. That's possible because Hoopla would argue so strongly against duplication, and that argument would be NAI so it's not risky at all to make. The argument is strong enough that if we randomly flipped one of them it's possible that town would sheep onto the argument and the remaining dups would sail through to an easy win. As we can see from this game, it's entirely possible that town will shoot themselves in the foot PR-wise and thus gambling scum could skip the PRs on purpose and let the swing carry them.

[Infinity 324]

I really expected Infinity to be the NK

I really don't like this reasoning for possibly suspecting me given that there was a decent amount of support for my elim yesterday (bird, s_s) and I'm in the redirector pool.

[Infinity 324]

I think it's Something_Smart, Infinity, ?.

What do you think about hoopla's reasoning that if either me or s_s flips scum-not-redirector, the other is confirmed scum?

[Something_Smart]

It's worth noting that scum killed in the redirector group, which is widely seen as a misplay, but S&M has shown that they think a kill in the redirector group would have been reasonable.

[davesaz]

Pick wise, other combinations with two of the 4's are possible but if they're going to dup why not go all the way? Not going to go through the trouble of enumerating here.

Low,low,high or low,low,med yields 2/4/9 and 2/4/23 but I seriously doubt that informed scum would fake claim a JK, nor that a scum JK would block a likely VT (plus no kill). This half of the Mena logic still stands. Those combinations still result in S_S or Infinity being in the solve.