In post 2093, Titus wrote:For the record, I highly doubt a bg and a doc are in the game. Doubly so with all the flipped power. We should start there.
Let's assume that there is exactly one scum in them.
From your point of view, if you flip one of them, there is 50% to elim scum.
If you flip anyone else, you get 66% to elim scum.
Why are we assuming one scum there? That seems a little heavy handed. Both could be scum.
We do have Ranny as conftown.
So that leaves Flavor/Outer/Alch/you (no elim) as having at least one scum. Even if we suppose two, that is still 50/50. So where do you get the two thirds from?
I think their percentages are correct? I thought they scum slipped at first, but I was wrong after I double checked. I didn't put a lot of effort into checking as soon as I realized I was just hopping at them.
In post 2095, no elim wrote:Again, I am lazy, but scum Flavor loves to spread chaos.
Is Flavor spreading chaos?
This confirms they are an alt.
I've never seen them before.
They don't need to out themselves, though.
No. I am not big on meta though. Math was big on NKA and knowing just how much experience no elim has with me/math helps determine if they make that kill.
I don't like meta either. I think it's good to state, but I like to read based on the game itself because I know of my ability to abuse meta, I hope others can do it as well. Familiarity over Meta. Seems similar, but I think there's a big difference.
In post 2098, Flavor Leaf wrote:I don't necessarily think you kill Mathblade over Ranny unless the team is Titus/Battle Mage.
I do have thoughts on this as well, but I am deliberately sitting on them right now.
Keep sitting. We're going with your option 2. Math and I solved the game last night and now I get to share. Hold on to your knickers.
I'll give you the short version. Math worked at it from the angle of who was scum, and I approached it trying to decide which of you three are town.
No elim is town. Scum is doing too well for an inactive slot to be scum. I'm staking the game on this. If they're scum, ggwp to other two; you deserve the win.
BM is town. They were doing everything right until they got flustered by Math calling them out on saying "BM".
There's one I'm not sure about. So let's look at it from the other end.
Of course Outer's got to be scum. He plays recklessly day 1, admonishing ben and saying that at worst we're flipping VT, but then he claims PR who played just as recklessly? And now he failed to defend is target. Is he going to say he didn't want to protect Math, or is he going to say he was roleblocked? Place your bets.
FL is scum for pushing a scum agenda. Trying to get rid of the masons in a one-two punch, and keeping the focus on NPOM and off his buddy Outer. Of course scum needed the nea gone. Judging from how FL called everyone's claim changing, scum likely have a role cop. A pt cop too, because that makes perfect sense with masons and a neighborizer, right? (This just cements scum!FL. Remember when he was flustered about Andres having a pt all to himself night 1?) They couldn't have NPOM catching them in lies.
So that leaves Alch and Titus. The funny thing is, they both look pocketed by FL. I think I'll let MathBlade explain. He left some notes in the mason pt.
Hey y’all. If you’re seeing this I am deader than a door nail so this is my sort of last will post. I have told Ranny to do something that’s against typical site meta in order for us to have a better chance at winning so if this goes to shit yell at me not him since he’s new. The scum team is FL+Outer+Titus/Alch. I firmly 100% believe it is Titus here and Ranny had some doubts it is Alch. So Ranny is going to immediately vote someone in that four and we’re going to go forward from there. The reason I asked him immediately vote someone rather than traditional fake voting elo is because Titus and Flavor Leaf are both charismatic scum and by voting they can’t talk their way out of it and I don’t have to guess every single angle they could take before today to coach Ranny on. The easiest way to ensure a scum elim is to force it since can’t cross vote a confirmed mason. Since Ranny won’t move his vote scum have to bus. It limits info but it’s imho the right play because then whoever is left of Titus/Flavor Leaf has to argue they were in the pocket of the other. This flies in the face of the evidence and facts though.
Day One VCA — Day One was cut incredibly incredibly short. That is not normal. Also due to how final votes were split a scum is confirmed on the Ben wagon. All votes D1 were on confirmed town except for Titus. For Titus to be town this would be a scum “perfect” day. Meaning not a single vote captured in a votecount was on scum. Titus who has not done a VCA all game (hallmark scum tell 85% accurate made up stat but hella high) is likely scum. This means no elim is probably town based upon hammer at the end of the day yesterday. Titus and crew didn’t want no elim coming on and hammering Outer. This means Titus and outer are a team. FL connects to this based on NPOM’s voting pattern. NPOM instantly out the gate votes FL. FL mentions Titus’s skill with wagonomics in 365. Literally every assumption in that post is false. Like confirmably so. Even if you assume hessian and(no elim) and Battle Mage are scum that forces minimum one scum. And for prior reasons scum perfect days are like unicorns. They don’t exist. So two scum minimum on the wagon. 364 FL calls that out as a weird play to make if scum. No it fucking isn’t because if Titus is scum she and her partners make a vested interest to kill off anyone who does VCA. FL even tries to make the Outer hammer look better (it doesn’t). Alch is the other scum IF Titus is so far pocketed she can’t see light. This is based on 299 (reaction to Ben’s hammer) and chainsaw of FL. Much more likely he just trusted FL and was pocketed.
Day 2 VCA — At this point Titus FL Outer should be deep in your mind here.
Outworlder chainsaw defends FL. The scum team REALLY want NPOM gone. They have probably checked NPOM here and didn’t want them to get a check off. Now combine that with Titus’s reads list. Dimes to donuts she already knew we were masons at that point. Her wish list was Super Bowl (who town wanted to miselim) and both masons. Masons are her specific weakness. (More on this later.) Titus then susses Super Bowl for his “policy” on Outer. Something can be jarring but true. This is typical Titus manipulation. Tell the truth in a way that makes you act bad. The policy elim is jarring. But it’s accurate.
I replace in. Now we look back at Titus’s scum reads. Titus and company have a role cop and a PT cop. That’s why Titus sussed me and Ranny’s slots. She probably already figured out one or the other of us were masons. (Probably me) and then FL pushed pretending not to believe it to get the other slot to out. This frees up PT cop player to do kills based on Andres death. The reason I say frees up is because without explicitly being a modifier it is not normal to multitask.
Day three was a pretty simple explanation. Titus and co needed two town on NPOM to miselim them. They needed them gone because sus of FL. They’re literally putting all their eggs into that. Me slow rolling it like elo was annoying as shit to them. They wanted me on that sus wagon. Apologies to BM Titus and FL’s suggestions were really poisoning my mind there. I am thankfully Ranny keeps setting me straight. With both masons off, it becomes clear at least two scum were on it unless you believe no elim + Battle Mage. This exact same problem from D1. Does this shock anyone as to why Titus hasn’t done VCA yet?
Titus also completely goes against protocol in slowing things down and listening to masons and actually having discussions. Instead she and FL chose to keep control. FL needed Johnny Farrah dead and needs us not listened to just enough. Any attempt to sus FL townread NPOM or even express doubt gets buried in hyperposts. Suggesting slowing the game down is bad.
At the end there, when I supeonaed (sp?) Titus I expected her to talk with me about a FL+Battle Mage coaching. Town her would be excited about that. Instead she instant hammers instead of working with town causing a shit show. At the end, I started spamming the shit out of questions to them because I was pretty sure one of them was scum.
Note how FL immediately turns on Alch here. And FL is explicitly non bus. He didn’t have time to come up with a reaction for a buddy here. He hates being thrown off his game. He freaking hates it. This means Alch is more likely than not Town here. Notice how he says I didn’t push FL in Titus’s pocket. This is a blatant lie. I was pushing one in the pocket of the other all day. Then comes to his last caveats one of Outer/BM. He phrases it in this way because he expects me to pick BM here. He’s telling the truth. Notice the common theme. Telling the truth in a way that manipulates you. And one of Titus/no elim. Again true. FL didn’t have time to come up with a spin story. Notice at the end how he says it could be Alch+masons. He didn’t say claims.
Scum knew EXACTLY what they were doing this game. They kill Johnny over us to get an NPOM wagon. They kill Andres because his last post sussed Titus. Scum couldn’t have that come up.
The answer is Titus+FL+Outer and just fucking run it y’all. Vote vote vote with the fury of a thousand suns.
Doing some VCA, I'll make myself Blue instead of Green
Day 1 VC, Alchemist, Titus, Outer would have to be all 3 scum on the Ben wagon for that to have happened. Possible? Yes, likely? I don't think so. It was a fast wagon, I expect a scum to be off of it somewhere, so Battle Mage/No elim are leftover, which is interesting because...
Unflipped on Superbowl is Battle Mage and No Elim, everything else is town. This backs up 2 scum on Ben. I guess it's possible it's 1, but let me think about it some more. It might even be 3 still, sorry for the indecisiveness here.
NPOM has all unflipped. This is confirmed to have 3 scum or 2 scum on it, considering Noelim is the only unconfirmed off of it.
So possible teams, not in any specific order.
Alchemist, Outer, Titus - All 3 on Benhaulk scenario.
Alchemist, Titus, Battle Mage - 2 on Benhaulk, 1 off, the 50/50 if BM is scum.
Alchemist, Outer, No Elim - Alchemist and Outer require the 2 of them being on all wagons together. I could WIFOM myself to think both ways, I don't think this is the team because it would require Alchemist and Outer to pair up like that while having an inactive scum not take any side, and too many ties together, although they dont have much dialogue on each other?
Alchemist, Battle Mage, No elim - this requires 1 scum on Ben, but this would also be 2 scum on Superbowl, and 2 on NPOM.
Titus, No elim, Outer - 1 scum on Superbowl, 2 on Ben/NPOM. Titus hammer gives this team some likelihood.
Titus, No elim, battle mage - 2 on Superbowl, 1 on Ben, 2 on NPOM.
Is it possible Outer and BM are both scum? I think a protective makes sense in this setup. I think Outer's makes more sense with the setup, but NPOM flip helps BM Odd-Night credibility, however, the vanilla claim change is something.
In post 2114, Rannygazoo wrote:Remember when he was flustered about Andres having a pt all to himself night 1?)
When was I flustered? All I remember was finding it weird Battle Mage was able to see Andres in a Neighborhood posting. This is misrepping what actually happened.
Normally, I wouldn't make a Neighborhood until the action went through, creating equivalent to Day Start, which is why I found it weird.
This is now how you talk to someone who drove the wagon that put us on elo. Nor is it contrition of someone who hammered town before the day was really over.
Honestly, Titus isn't as obviously scum as the other two, but if I do this, there's no talking out of it. So here we go. The die is cast. VOTE: Titus
