Newbie 2043: Cherfnul - Game Over

[ben dover123]

EBWOP: damn it. this is pagetop

I'm out for the time being until someone responds to my wallpost.

[LavarManos]

Good analysis Ben!
VOTE: Battle Mage

[ben dover123]

Good analysis Ben!
VOTE: Battle Mage

BM isn't confscum until you are very likely town.

Reviewing your ISO.

[ben dover123]

Spoiler: LavarManos' ISO

I know what to look for in this gamestate and I will intervene and talk with others when I feel necessary.

You say that RVS is fundamentally flawed, and that people will use the excuse that their votes were random. How so, then, do you know what to look for? Other than votes what are you going to read people off of. I don't like this attitude, but I'm inclined to think it comes from town more than mafia. I envision a newbie mafia would try to blend in instead of openly going against the crowd. However, ben here does not sound like a newbie too much.

I need to conserve my energy for bigger issues

What the...

I start to lose focus on my reads and who I'm scumreading if I try and be extremely townie.

What do you think makes an obvious townie? What would you do if you were trying to be extremely townie? I am very confused as to how that would make you lose focus.

Hm. That explains a bit of the weird sentence, but I'm not ready to accept this revelation yet.

Do you think mafia would intentionally lie about not being a native speaker? This seems quite silly to me.

It seems to me that Trendall overreacted to clidd's original vote. I don't think clidd's vote was serious at all, and I'm wondering why Trendall seemed to think it was serious.

Don't really get this talk about 'first' vs 'last'. Trendall's intent seemed pretty clear to me.

I also want to give the newbies some time to shine brighter than me, I feel like I'm naturally overshadowing all of them combined.

We get it.

There is no 'omgus', I didn't vote for you because you voted me, I voted for you for the reasons that I stated.

Your reasons hinge on clidd's vote being a serious one. If it was, I would be more inclined to agree with you, but it wasn't.

I don't fos you anymore.

VOTE: BM

Time to sort the last SE.

Are you scumreading Battle Mage, or just trying to pressure him? I don't find pressure votes particularly effective, especially with a more experienced player like Battle Mage.

Also, I don't see why a scum SE is any less motivated to push a town SE than a town newbie. It all depends on how the game develops.

Another thing I've noticed about him is that he likes to use the words townie and conservative.

What is scummy about this? For the most part, I think your argument against ben could also be an argument that he is an awkward townie. I'm leaning towards him being an awkward townie, and I think he is an easy target for mafia.

Scum probably like the current gamestate with so many inactive players, so following the inactive crowd would definitely go in their favor.

That's not how it works. Please do not make assumptions based on speculation like this. There's nothing right now that suggests that scum are within the active or within the more inactive players. Regardless, it is generally in scum's advantage to post more.

I have never considered or seen any scum SE try to eliminate another SE D1.

What are you even basing this off of?

I'm sure anyone can be obvious town if they just tried.

No.

How active are you going to be this game?

Depends on schedule

VOTE: Lavarmanos
that's the first scum

Incorrect, and it would be helpful if you gave reasoning.

Thoughts on players
Trendall-He seems to be making various observations that seem unlikely to come from scum.
clidd-I don't see any reason to scumread him, and he seems like he is trying to work together with the town.
ben-Seems like bait, but I also don't like the way he sheeps on popular opinion(voting chumbo after trendall and calling clidd scum after others start to do so)
Chumbo-Seems more interested in calling other players out than solving on his own
NAJON-No opinion.
Battle Mage-No opinion
Rockhopper-No opinion
Lone Markhor-No opinion

I like this post, collecting thoughts about other people while he is reading. This post gives me townpings.

Ben calling all of clidd's posts null or scummy is not a good look for his read on clidd.

Setting a stance, which is towny.

What does thonk stand for?
I did not say you aren't allowed to make takes. I said that you shouldn't make takes based off of no evidence. There's no incentive for scum to remain inactive when they can attempt to control the game by staying active. Also, I don't believe the game to be inactive at all. A few players have already commented that they weren't expecting the game to go this fast, so it just seems like your perception is different from others which leads to you thinking that people are "inactive" and thus scummy.
I also feel like being extremely townie does not constitute losing focus on your reads. For example, if you are constantly making reads based off of other people's posts, it makes you look townie and also helps keep you focused on the game. Post 231 is way too idealistic.
@Chumbo There was no contradiction. If you went back and read, clidd explained that it was mostly a joke.

Enforcing his stance by explaining it in more detail. Relatively towny.

What do you think about his entrance?

I don't have much of an opinion on it. His vote on me is interesting, and I waiting for his reasoning.

This sounds passive, but it is NAI I believe.

Rockhopper's attack on Pragdoid would be fine... if Pragdoid wasn't a newbie. I think consensus following reads and searching for contradictions are just as likely to come from a player who is still learning the ropes.

Well I was assuming that the mafias were in the afk people, but their replacements seem nice, so you went back to being more likely to be mafia I'm like rly sorry

This seems too bold for scum to say.

so that when I die night 1 town still has a idea of where to go afterwards.

You won't die on night 1

I still have a light townread on clidd.

Towny-ish

Rockhopper looks like scum who is trying to be seen as too scummy.
VOTE: Rockhopper

This vote didn't give me the right pings for an E-1 vote.

lol

Lavar treated clidd's claim a little too likely for my liking.

Posts ranging from #649-943 are all light fluff.

I don't see anything about defeatism, and I don't understand why it is scummy in this situation. Both you and Trendall are the loudest voices in the games and also happen to be his biggest opponents. I could see him being exasperated as town here, and I don't think the way he presented his claim is likely to come from scum.

This defense for clidd actually gives me hard townpings.

Looking at Lavar's ISO, he actually comes off relatively towny, with the exception of his Rock vote and his reaction to clidd's claim.

Pragdoid looked like a newbie town from his posts, so Lavar is likely town.

Before we call out BM for being confscum, I'd like to hear from other people.

[clidd]

pagetop

We have had our differences clidd, but let us work together here. I believe you are town in good faith, and BM has a high chance of being scum. Not confscum, but a very high chance.

I'm looking forward to that.

I need to take a look at the others, but I'm also pretty sure that BM is scum. The way the hammer occurred at the end of the day seemed very ''you already know that I'm a scum, so I'll try to eliminate at least one town while I can'' and there is the ''vla-prod'' thing I'm not townreading anymore (and I think you know why too).

[ben dover123]

pagetop

We have had our differences clidd, but let us work together here. I believe you are town in good faith, and BM has a high chance of being scum. Not confscum, but a very high chance.

I'm looking forward to that.

I need to take a look at the others, but I'm also pretty sure that BM is scum. The way the hammer occurred at the end of the day seemed very ''you already know that I'm a scum, so I'll try to eliminate at least one town while I can'' and there is the ''vla-prod'' thing I'm not townreading anymore (and I think you know why too).

Yeah. That BM hammer was wacky too.

Looks like we are already vibing on the same wavelength. One favor I'll ask of you though, please don't pocket me again.

[clidd]

Well, I will try. It's isn't something that I can always control.

[Battle Mage]

Sigh...rip Trendall, but he was basically dead anyways.

Tier list:

Tier I (No scum):

ben dover123, LoneMarkhor

Tier II (Maybe 1 scum, but not scumteam):

clidd, LavarManos

Tier III (At least 1 scum, possibly scumteam)

Rockhopper, Chumbo, BM

My PoE: {LavarManos, Rockhopper, Chumbo, BM}
Possible scumteams:
{LavarManos, Chumbo}
{LavarManos, BM}
{Rockhopper, BM}
{Chumbo, BM}

{LavarManos, Rockhopper} is just not possible since Lavar put Rock at E-1 with intent to hammer.
{Chumbo, Rockhopper} isn't likely since I doubt Chumbo would put Rock at E-2, then when Rock reaches E-1 he doesn't unvote.
{BM, clidd} isn't likely since BM never removed his vote on clidd.

Spoiler: Clidd

clidd has been weird all game long. His actions just don't match his vt playstyle, but I think I have finally reached a conclusion on him.

First of all, if clidd knows the setup is double goons, then he has a 1/3 chance of getting a 2 goons + 1 cop + 6 vt's setup, and a 2/3 chance of outing another PR. This alone cannot make him partners with a newbie since I doubt he would ever let a newbie try to deepwolf when he has outed a PR. Therefore, the only possible team now that has clidd is {BM, clidd}

Second of all, clidd could rolefish and just stay away from claiming. It's a lot safer, and tons easier for his teammate.

Third of all, {BM, clidd} isn't actually that likely in my eyes, because BM never unvoted clidd, which I don't quite understand. Sure, BM was awkward when talking to clidd, but he didn't unvote which I think ruins the possibility of a {BM, clidd} team.

Finally, analyzing the time of the claim:
Y'see, clidd claims when he was at E-3, with Rock's wagon coming out of E-1. If clidd was scum, there is literally no motivation to claim here as such a risky play, which makes clidd even more town.
I think this may be doctor clidd trying to get our attention to work with him here. Scum clidd doing all the above things is just so unrealistic.

Conclusion: clidd is town, BM has a 3/4 chance of being scum, we can prove BM is scum if we prove that either Lavar or Chumbo is town.

I really love this analysis. I didn't read the Clidd spoiler, because Clidd is ostensibly locktown based on his claim. I'm guessing Cop dying means there's a scum roleblocker, unless Clidd gambled on protecting you. I also consider you virtually certain town, largely based on your effort and genuine solving vibe.

So it's 2 out of everybody else, and the relationship stuff is helpful.

Admittedly my hammer wasn't great given the flip, but seriously...nearly 50 pages on Day 1 of a newbie game is fricking insane, and I just wanted to end it to give me a fighting chance of catching up

[clidd]

BM, we know you're scum.

Can you just say who's your partner ?

[clidd]

Actually, by rules you can't, so nevermind.

I think BM + Rock is making more sense to me, but we can talk about that.

[Battle Mage]

I guess there's a good chance I flip today which is fine, but I'll try and give some high quality SE insight beforehand. At least we're at the stage of the game where you can narrow down the PoE to certain viable combinations, although presumably Clidd and you are dying the next 2 nights anyway.

[Battle Mage]

BM, we know you're scum.

Can you just say who's your partner ?

I'm town dude but it's cool, I haven't done a very good job of demonstrating that

[clidd]

I just want to play with you in a game in which we're both town, lol.

Let's see if we can get that in the future.

[Battle Mage]

haha i think i'm retiring after all my current games wind up. just too busy and some of these games (not this one) are a bit stressful!

but if we do play as town together again one day, I'll obvtown more

[Battle Mage]

I think there's high partner equity between Lunar and LoneMarkhor.

Lunar only ever votes between 4 people (all probable or conftown from my POV): Trendall, Clidd, Ben, Me.
Lunar's top scumread for most of Day 1 is Markhor. He argues hard that Markhor is scum, but never votes him.
Reads like distancing to me.
But for all reasons above, I don't think Lunar can be scum with anyone other than Markhor. It's rare for newbie scum to not distance a bit, and if Markhor is town, Lunar has literally only attacked town.

So if Markhor town, Lunar town.

[Battle Mage]

hold on, Lunar is dead! I'm a moron

back to the drawing board...

[ben dover123]

hold on, Lunar is dead! I'm a moron

back to the drawing board...

Are you kidding me...

[Battle Mage]

For example, Lavar is literally just posting one liners like "bruh" and "you're going to get roleblocked" and obvious stuff like that, as if he is coasting the sidelines watching town just go boom boom

Pedit: You have literally no right to troll here bud.

VOTE: LavarManos

Anyone want to jump on here as well?

I wasn't trolling dude, I forgot who got elimmed. It was a long night...

But yeah I agree with Ben here. The vote on me today was very opportunistic, and shamelessly buddying.

VOTE: LavarManos

[Battle Mage]

maybe we should massclaim...

[ben dover123]

maybe we should massclaim...

ok tf

is bm openwolving at this point

[Battle Mage]

whatever happens, we just need to look past the fact I tried to argue a dead townie had high mafia-partner equity with somebody. I think if we can just ignore that, it's still possible not to mis-elim today.

[ben dover123]

For example, Lavar is literally just posting one liners like "bruh" and "you're going to get roleblocked" and obvious stuff like that, as if he is coasting the sidelines watching town just go boom boom

Pedit: You have literally no right to troll here bud.

VOTE: LavarManos

Anyone want to jump on here as well?

I wasn't trolling dude, I forgot who got elimmed. It was a long night...

But yeah I agree with Ben here. The vote on me today was very opportunistic, and shamelessly buddying.

VOTE: LavarManos

i wasn't talking to you

what is this coming from BM

clidd help

[Battle Mage]

maybe we should massclaim...

ok tf

is bm openwolving at this point

lol grrrrrr

but no, my goose is just cooked.

[Battle Mage]

For example, Lavar is literally just posting one liners like "bruh" and "you're going to get roleblocked" and obvious stuff like that, as if he is coasting the sidelines watching town just go boom boom

Pedit: You have literally no right to troll here bud.

VOTE: LavarManos

Anyone want to jump on here as well?

I wasn't trolling dude, I forgot who got elimmed. It was a long night...

But yeah I agree with Ben here. The vote on me today was very opportunistic, and shamelessly buddying.

VOTE: LavarManos

i wasn't talking to you

what is this coming from BM

clidd help

ah sorry yeah i think we cross-posted. anyway, we just need to get Clidd on board and we can get this show back on the road!!

[Battle Mage]

as a general reflection, this may be the most a group of newbies has over-shadowed a group of SEs in the history of the New York Forum. terrible showing, i sincerely apologise to you all.