Mini Theme 2182 - Legends of the Hidden Temple III - Over!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

people who say "these 4 people are probly all green" let's just policy elim this one.

either

(A) Don't understand how probability work

or

(B) Have incredibly strong reading ability on all four slots.

or

(C) Scum trying to excuse pushing a town mis-elim through.

You tell me which one you and notsci are.

[VP Baltar]

the probability from my POV knowing my role PM is green is

(7/11)(6/10)(5/9) = 21%

the probability from a outsider POV holding a green role PM is:

(7/11)(6/10)(5/9)(4/8) = 10.5%

Right, so you can at least understand how from my perspective, it wasn't an amazing play when a little more info could have raised confidence.

[VP Baltar]

Or are you saying those are the odds of all the pool being town?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

21% is the odds of all 4 being town from my POV knowing I am a townie

10.5% is the odds of all 4 being town from a outsider POV holding a green role pm.

it's funny as hell notsci thinks we're in the 1/10 scenario in which all 4 of us are town.

Cuz if you believe that then the game is already won, we elim one of us, notsci+3 survivors = 4 player townblock, just elim every1 else and you win.

he's probably scum trying to excuse a shit push on me based on "policy" and being lazy.

[notscience]

Then challenge me

I’m not the genius who page 4 challenged

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

which one are you notsci


(A) Don't understand how probability work

or

(B) Have incredibly strong reading ability on all four slots.

or

(C) Scum trying to excuse pushing a town mis-elim through.

[VP Baltar]

21% is the odds of all 4 being town from my POV knowing I am a townie

10.5% is the odds of all 4 being town from a outsider POV holding a green role pm.

it's funny as hell notsci thinks we're in the 1/10 scenario in which all 4 of us are town.

Cuz if you believe that then the game is already won, we elim one of us, notsci+3 survivors = 4 player townblock, just elim every1 else and you win.

he's probably scum trying to excuse a shit push on me based on "policy" and being lazy.

Ok. I'm not great at math and statistics, so maybe I've just had a bad thought process all along. I guess if this was your thought process from the start, that was sort of why I asked you if you had planned this move before the game began.

[notscience]

I don’t care about your probability and have decent townreads on all of you, yes

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I mean I know how probabilities work dude. Didn't even matter who I challenged, odds are there's at least 1 scum in the group.

I also know in this game what happens is scum fish for the weak link in the town chain, look for who is easy to mis-elim on a bullshit case, then drive a narrative push down the town throat.

I'm here to kill bad guys. I'm not going to let some bad guy dictate where the game state flows.

[notscience]

Wouldn’t that have been Noraa, who I would have been 100% justified in hammering as I repeatedly said I would autohammer only to back off because my read changed?

I’m not even pushing you that hard you’re acting like I’m actively campaigning instead of passively placing my vote

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don’t care about your probability and have decent townreads on all of you, yes

I don't care about your decent townreads.

Are your townreads "Bet the fucking farm on this guy being town" level?

If they ARE, then you need to lay it out, you convince every1 and you have a 4 player townblock that can auto-win this game.

And if they're not, you don't have the excuse to policy elim a townie in the pool cuz you don't feel like doing the work. That just lazy and scum!indicative.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Wouldn’t that have been Noraa, who I would have been 100% justified in hammering as I repeatedly said I would autohammer only to back off because my read changed?

I’m not even pushing you that hard you’re acting like I’m actively campaigning instead of passively placing my vote

I don't give a shit about who dies or who actively campaigns.

I care about your reasoning for your vote.

If it's "these 4 are all town and I am going to policy elim ___" I think that's scummy as hell no matter who ____ is

I don't even care you picked me

[notscience]

Big talk from the guy who put us in this fucky gamestate on purpose

[notscience]

Either I’m absolutely trash at being scum and instead of lurking and adding to trajectory on a miselim, decided to open wolf

Or I’m town who doesn’t really give a shit because the entire reason were in this mess is the person I’m voting thought they were gods gift to scumhunting and made a stupid choice that effectively ruined the day, but I’m not knowingly hammering someone in strong townreading bc I don’t have the stones.

[VP Baltar]

I listed two points where you jumped to a conclusion about Noraa's play. early on, you decided to trust her, despite her fooling you in MafiaSunny (which btw, you haven't given which Pooky is reading the events of that game wrong), which I can kinda pass off, and then there's recently where you saw Noraa acting weird and seemed to jump to it being scummy, without minimal sorting at best from what I can tell. If you've been sorting her for real, it's been in the PT where I can't see it, so in that case you're making pooky's point for him about what to use the PT for.

I'll circle back later today and address this. Need to run for a few hours.

I was hoping to get on a computer today, but that seems unlikely, so I'll answer this as best I can from my phone.

Regarding the second half of your statement about why I called noraa scummy there, I think I've explained that pretty thoroughly.

Re: mafiaSunny - I don't think I got "snowed" by noraa that game. Iirc, even before reck flipped scum that game, I said if reck was scum, I thought noraa was too. I unfortunately got distracted by some other scummy behavior the next day and didn't have good follow through. Then in Xylo, I had a lot of pressure on me to get it right because I was confirmed town. I correctly hit Haschel scum in the second to last day without a lot of help from the other town players (ythan, you and ~oldmanbrainIcantremember~). So the finally Xylo day, I felt I again wasn't getting a ton of help solving. Ythan was himself and pretty laid back. Noraa was talking and AtEing everywhere (which I didn't know then was what she always does), and you were pretty dejected and just assumed I wanted you no matter what.

Ultimately, I made a bad pick in what was not a great Xylo situation. Def not my finest moment, but getting snowed? Nah. To me that'd be straight up town blocking noraa, which just wasn't the case.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Or I’m town who doesn’t really give a shit because the entire reason were in this mess is the person I’m voting thought they were gods gift to scumhunting and made a stupid choice that effectively ruined the day, but I’m not knowingly hammering someone in strong townreading bc I don’t have the stones.

LOL GODS GIFT TO SCUMHUNTING ROFL IS THIS A TROLL

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

and btw nice shift from "all 4 players are definitely town let's kill pooky" to "I am not going to hammer noraa cuz I strong townread her"

not the same thing

[Untrod Tripod]

Notscience I'm not gonna lie that last series of posts was fucking terrible

[notscience]

Then elim me I don’t really care

[Untrod Tripod]

How do you think this game day ends?

[notscience]

We elim one of these people that I don’t feel like elimming then whichever of (Pooky, Noraa) is still alive autochallenges

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

have you figured out who you want to challenge tomorrow yet to beat us to the punch then?

[notscience]

I’m not playing your reindeer games. As is I’d target Agar.

[Gamma Emerald]

the probability from my POV knowing my role PM is green is

(7/11)(6/10)(5/9) = 21%

the probability from a outsider POV holding a green role PM is:

(7/11)(6/10)(5/9)(4/8) = 10.5%

probability of what? I think your math might be off.

[Noraa]

oldmanbrainIcantremember

duppin.