PookyTheMagicalBear v Flavor Leaf (Game Over)

[Ydrasse]

ive rolled bard in arams a lot and it makes me want to play him again, i exclusively played him on his release

also i wanna learn someone more complex but idk who

[pichu]

grumble grumble
-grumblegrumble

[mastina]

What do you think I'm doing rn?

Honest answer: I think you're randomly quoting posts to look busy.

[Is there a point you're trying to make with that quote tower, Bell?]

This precisely. Bell complained about my posts being IIoA, but what Bell is doing now seems to fall under that category as well.

Do you think I'm just randomly quoting walls of brief mentions of NK15 in this huge game.

To an extent, yes, that's precisely what it seems you are doing.

This, so, so much this.

[Ircher]

like if you are going to crumb your PR, you do it d1, you don't do it on d2. it makes no sense to me except as rolecop setting up a CC.

This assumes people are rational and act rationally. History and the media shows that this is not the case.

it's the extra little push that gets bell over the hump, and also after bell flips green DEB can always play the 2-detectives angle - the wifom trap is specifically "why would I counter-claim a dead man?"

That assumes people believe that. If Bell flips green, I highly doubt that DEB survives another day phase. Furthermore, if they are both town, we're probably doomed anyway. I would rather lim DEB anyway in that scenario rather than make the risky play of letting DEB live on the off-chance that both Bell and DEB are town.

Pooky I will vote for Dr Easy Bake if you take myself and noraa hydra out of the vig pool and replace them with Creature and another player of your choosing

Pooky should do this anyway tbh.

[Ok so Dr Easy did the crumbs on D2 when Bell had 3 votes, right after pichu dropped his big case. That is still some amount of foresight, as Creature had more votes at the time, but you could make a decent guess Bell would be put on stand either D2 or D3 from that, sure.]

Okay, did DEB post at a time significantly before then on Day 2? (As in say 2 hours or more earlier?) I ask as that might have been the first opportunity (on Day 2) for DEB to post (and thus make a crumb).

I'd be voting Creature here and it's specifically because of Creature being pretty transparently scum.

Yeah, I think Creature is probably a better lim than DEB here (as in more likely to flip scum), but on the flip side, I think it's in our best interests to lim one of {Bell, DEB} here. We should vig the other if we get a green flip.

I really don't see why MURDERCAT is getting townread.

I know others are, but I'm not townreading MURDERCAT here either. My solve rn is something like Bell + Creature + MURDERCAT + One of {Toogeloo, Spiffeh}.

like Creature is definitely LHF town-town - literally everybody wants him dead.

...I guess this is a good point. I don't think it acquits Creature by any means, but the fact that he's 1) counter to Bell (who I'm presuming is scum) and 2) a universal scum read does make his scum equity drop quite some.

DEB is so shady thoooo

Moreso than is normal for the slot? I'm not seeing it.

idk the way he gave Bell the benefit of the doubt and checked with everyone if two detectives was outrageous first seemed towny to me

A) that sounds like scum checking their exit plan to make sure people are open minded when bell flips town detective.

B) crumb timing on D2 after bell takes pressure makes more sense as scum pre-empting a claim by using rolecop info. If he was a real detective he should've crumbed on D1

C) His actual crumb doesn't look like it was written by him - word choice, sentence structure does not match with rest of ISO, strongly suspect Flava Flav wrote that crumb after original crumb was deemed "unsatisfactory".

D) This is exactly the kind of gambit Flava Flav loves pulling. Nothing Bell has done feels like it was coached by Flava Flav.

A) Disagree but the interpretation is subjective to a significant degree.
B) Already explained my thoughts on this.
C) I will look into this after I finish catching up again.
D) This assumes Flavor Leaf is playing a super active role in the game. It's entirely possible Flavor Leaf takes a bit more of a hands-off approach.

Are you saying you scumread both of them? What are the odds of having two scumwagons?

Not zero although admittedly not super high either. Maybe 25% chance to happen?

you know too many people in this game feel towny now
i think like 2 scum are playing very well probably

This has a good chance of being the case actually. I will concern myself with this possibility when we get there.

It’s possible he could be scum here but I agree with Pooky. You guys recall what I said about NK15? Well the same thing applies to Creature. I haven’t even heard a Creature scum case yet.

I don't know if mastina cased him, but I know she has explained why he is lockscum from her pov. I've also explained why I think he's scum multiple times that I do not care to repeat rn.

At bottom of page 175.

[mastina]

I still don't really understand what the plan would be for scum though when DEB continues to not die. But maybe he is being intentionally not at all useful so as to be able to make the argument he isn't dead for that reason (which would likely be made through other scum players)?

Pretty much, yeah.

I'm willing to give you a significant amount of leeway here even though you're basically poaching from my theory of it being scum-scum.

(That is to say. If DEB and Bell are indeed scum-scum as I believe. I don't think you're scum, here. And the reevaluation from you does seem genuine and sincere. So even if only one is scum, there's a reasonably decent chance you're town; both as scum guarantees you as town to me.)

[mastina]

I think they are scum together. FL sensed Bell was going down and tried to get some town cred for DEB out of it.
When DEB doesn't die, you have another scum say "why kill DEB he's useless, detective isn't that strong."
Mechwise, that is the simplest explanation to me.

It is also what I've been saying since the moment DEB counterclaimed.

Butyeah, I think there's a pretty damn good chance you're town now.

I still believe you're wrong about Polar Bear Express being scum, but I think you're probably town now.

[MURDERCAT]

Can we at least force DEB back into the thread and define our vig shots before we hammer Bell please?
Like why is town playing so fucking anti town this game

[mastina]

Yup, I woke up at 3:40PM today. This is fine.

I mean this is me every day of quarantine pretty much nonstop. 3:40ish pm every day.

Especially right now due to lingering sickness. I can hope it's gone now but I don't know it is.

[Ydrasse]

i think pooky already defined them

[pichu]

murdercat incredibly anti town play for not hammering

[mastina]

wow mastina I didn't realize the only thing I had to do to get you to town read me was to stop trying

I mean.
"Stop trying to look town and just be town".
Is advice that actually goes a long way for improving townplay when town.

You stopped trying to look town and just

are

town now, so.

Didn't BM do like the same thing.

Yes--and I scumread him for it for good reason. It was an erroneous scumread, but that doesn't mean the reasoning is innately inherently fundamentally flawed. No scumtell is 100% accurate; most scumtells that are actual tells are in the range of ~60-70%. Where town will still be guilty of it 30-40% of the time, and with personality traits can be guilty of it more often, but scum will still be the ones guilty of it the majority of the time, 60-70% of the time, potentially higher by their personality.

When scum are pressured, they tend to get defensive, overly so, and use this pressure on them as an excuse/justification for having not produced content.
When town are pressured, they can get defensive, sometimes even overly so, and under this pressure there is going to be reduced content, and sometimes even no content--but more common is that they still are giving reads and reasons because they are trying to leave an influence in the game even if they are mislynched. To leave a legacy that players can use when they are flipped as town.

It's a fundamental psychology thing that I believe is innately inherent to the alignments. As scum under pressure, you've incentive to not fake scumhunting (because faking scumhunting can give the town more info after you flip) and have incentive to defend yourself (to prevent yourself from flipping). As town under pressure, you've incentive to scumhunt (to leave a legacy if you're unsuccessful in defending yourself) as well as incentive to defend yourself (to prevent yourself from flipping).

So, defending oneself is not inherently alignment-indicative.
Defending oneself with no scumhunting IS; it's a scumtell. Not lockscum, because town can do it (Battle Mage in this game is proof of that), but it is still something more likely to come from scum than come from town.

And you're doing what Battle Mage did...only upped to eleven, even more defensive and with less contributions than what he gave. Your promises are even more empty than his were.

[MURDERCAT]

murdercat incredibly anti town play for not hammering

Literally this is exactly how our doc died for free

[Blade Dancer]

Official Vote Count 2.14

Polar Bear Express

(1): Double the Trouble

Creature

: (2) Spiffeh, Toogelo

Bell

(7): Ircher, pichu, Ydrasse, mastina, Dr Easy Bake, Solstice, Polar Bear Express

Spiffeh

(1): Creature

Pichu

(1): Bell

Dr Easy Bake

(1): Dunnstral, MURDERCAT

Not Voting

(0):
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to execute.

MURDERCAT is VLA until 12/17. MURDERCAT did not specify a time, so I'll use noon PST.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-12-22 18:21:00)

[/color]

[Flavor Leaf]

Bard Bard best skin in the game.

[Flavor Leaf]

If it helps you guys out, I definitely planned on picking Battle Mage.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vig pool should be - [DEB, Dunnstral, Spiffeh, Polar Bear]

I hope I am wrong about Bell.

:/

[Double the Trouble]

ok
im not playing league right now

[Double the Trouble]

can I hammer?

[MURDERCAT]

Make Deb do something

[Bell]

VOTE: Bell

[MURDERCAT]

Welp ok

[MURDERCAT]

Well played Bell, the AtE got me

[Flavor Leaf]

Damn, you guys really made a bussing gambit way harder than it had to be.

[Ircher]

Pooky has more info than us so why are you not following his lead?

Eh, he marginally has more info. That doesn't make his reads that much better.

Idk I thought the claims were switched or something

Like, for everyone scumreading players for being noncommittal on DEB/Bell.
That aren't scumreading Creature.

Creature's posts are literally as noncommittal as it gets.

He is adamantly refusing to take a stance on DEB/Bell at all.

Eh, it's a resurgence of apathetic Creature, which unfortunately isn't /too/ alignment-indicative. I agree he's done some scummy stuff this day phase but not committing to Bell or DEB isn't one of them. It's definitely a stance I could see town!Creature taking.

even under the assumption that one of them is town and the other is scum that means we have 3 other scum to find
~mist

Alternatively, both are scum and there's only 2 other scum to find.

With one being Creature.

And the last being one of {Toogeloo, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral}, with Dunnstral being the least-likely due to him being the most likely to be town.

But if there is 3 other scum to find due to only one of DEB/Bell being scum (I will never cease to be an advocate of it being both, but I'll play ball with entertaining the idea of DEB being town counterclaiming even if I personally feel both are scum), then I'd say it's both Toogeloo and MURDERCAT.

Bell + DEB + Creature + {Murder, Toogeloo, Dunnstral} seems a bit too easy. I kinda think there's a good chance of a deep wolf, but that's not really rooted in any form of reason.

I have my read on you and nothing you've said has changed it. It's out there if Pooky wants to explore it further.

Why not? I don’t think you’re giving my posts equal weight.

Tbf to Murder, Noraa has posted much more than you, so it makes sense her overall posting is assigned more weight as a result.

Todays pool is {Murder, Bell} and I dont think anything else is even remotely plausible.

We're definitely not limming Murder today. His scum equity is low compared to our other candidates. (Well, DEB is more of a null read for me, but we have the CC shenanigans that make DEB a better lim here than Murder.)

Bell is now at like 3 votes or something right? Or did gloria exaggerate it?

I'm pretty sure Gloria exaggerated.

hammer.

Someone please do [hammer Bell].

thats not exactly a question pichu

You should hammer.

Oh I see we have a hammer. Posting this now then. At bottom of 4454.

[mastina]

like Creature is definitely LHF town-town - literally everybody wants him dead.

Creature is not low-hanging fruit.

Creature in fact is notably almost never called low-hanging fruit in his towngames...but very frequently is called low-hanging fruit in his scumgames.

And not everyone wants him dead; he has a fair number of defenders and resistance. The pushers of him also, by and large, aren't committing to pushing him and aren't really pushing him hard.

Most of the townbloc is calling him scum, sure.

But that's because the townbloc has, more or less, narrowed in on an almost complete, coherent solve.

I can buy that Creature is being soft-bussed, heck, if Toogaloo is scum which he probably is then that'd be proof of it right then and there, but Creature's not town because of being a player everyone wants dead.

Can you please explain Creature to me? I don’t understand why he is caught?

Have you played with Creature before?

Creature as town, even in his degraded state, usually has fairly solid takes, fairly solid logic, reasonable grasp on the gamestate and a good amount of reasonable reads. He still fluff posts a fair amount and may complain some, but largely is still going to be business in being able to give a bunch.

Creature, as scum, in his current state, doesn't give solid takes, avoids giving much in the way of logic, pretends to (or maybe genuinely does) have a poor grasp on the gamestate, is lackluster in the reads department, complains a lot more, and gives virtually nothing.

The former is nothing like his play in this game; the latter fits his play this game to a T.

He is literally the definition of scum that is openwolfing right now. He's not even pretending to be in his town meta.