Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[unwnd]

My bias tells me Turtle came from an uninformed perspective due to the timing of his posts. This can be faked and I wouldn't clear him entirely, but that's where I'm putting him right now.

[petapan]

It'd be the same reason I'd vote myself in this position

As in, if I were in this game and saw someone posting like me. You think I'm leaning too far into the helpful IC vibe to produce content

pretty much yes

Alright then

Spoiler:

Help me out here. I don't believe it's wrong to maintain a sense of ego and I'm a little afraid of going too hard. I don't want to become an obvious influence and I was looking forward to just giving helpful advice and letting the thread progress naturally instead of forcing things to go my way. I will say it is a bit difficult not to, and my whole 'hey, we're spectulating too much' and 'not enough commitment' was basically a really polite way to say that I think our conversations right now while intriguing are not necessarily productive, I just didn't wanna discourage anyone lol

Spoiler:

don't worry about it. my first impulse on seeing your post was to agree with you, this game is much more passive than i had anticipated and i probably need to readjust my methods. but just agreeing with you would be

boring

, and i

could

see you making that post as scum, so i thought i'd snap vote you to see what response i got, both from you and other players. your response says to me you were aware what you were doing could be perceived as scummy by someone like me, and chose to do it anyway, which, is

probably

a good sign. in truth, i don't think your method is invalid - i think it's a good idea to get people to commit to stances that we can refer back to, and it was something people used to often do when i first started playing. could be a good thing, couldn't hurt to try, at the least. but give me your own answer for your strongest scumread and strongest townread, like you asked of everyone else. don't have to give reasons, just name names

[petapan]

I also read his vote on unwnd as really town.

er, why, exactly?

[unwnd]

It'd be the same reason I'd vote myself in this position

As in, if I were in this game and saw someone posting like me. You think I'm leaning too far into the helpful IC vibe to produce content

pretty much yes

Alright then

Spoiler:

Help me out here. I don't believe it's wrong to maintain a sense of ego and I'm a little afraid of going too hard. I don't want to become an obvious influence and I was looking forward to just giving helpful advice and letting the thread progress naturally instead of forcing things to go my way. I will say it is a bit difficult not to, and my whole 'hey, we're spectulating too much' and 'not enough commitment' was basically a really polite way to say that I think our conversations right now while intriguing are not necessarily productive, I just didn't wanna discourage anyone lol

Spoiler:

don't worry about it. my first impulse on seeing your post was to agree with you, this game is much more passive than i had anticipated and i probably need to readjust my methods. but just agreeing with you would be

boring

, and i

could

see you making that post as scum, so i thought i'd snap vote you to see what response i got, both from you and other players. your response says to me you were aware what you were doing could be perceived as scummy by someone like me, and chose to do it anyway, which, is

probably

a good sign. in truth, i don't think your method is invalid - i think it's a good idea to get people to commit to stances that we can refer back to, and it was something people used to often do when i first started playing. could be a good thing, couldn't hurt to try, at the least. but give me your own answer for your strongest scumread and strongest townread, like you asked of everyone else. don't have to give reasons, just name names

Right now I think Lunar/BBMolla are good lims for the day, are you still null on BB? I'm not going to go into a tunnel about it so I was thinking of moving over to Lunar (probably because he would give me more on response). Other than that my strongest TR is Mikul

[petapan]

It's quite overwhelming, honestly. I've been trying to make reads, but I wouldn't call them successful as a clear majority of them are nulls.

that's okay, making reads is hard and if you're new it's to be expected you'll have trouble, seeing as knowing what to look for only comes with experience. can you give your specific feelings on anyone in this game? you don't have to reach conclusions, just talk about their posts and what they make you think.

Quiet seemed like a newer player in the beginning, excited and motivated to play. It kind of gave me a town read on them. As time progressed, I feel like Quiet has shown more skill than I thought he had in the beginning. Enough skill to fake such behavior. I've had doubts on his alignment ever since.
Other than that I can clearly tell that BBMolla, Unwnd, Petapan and Mikul all seem experienced at mafia.

"seeming experienced" doesn't really tell us anything. i guess i'll try to break this down into simpler terms. do you have any other experience playing mafia? (i'm guessing no). have you watched any games? what is towny behavior to you? what is scummy behavior?

[safebet222]

Sure...

1st: Your BB read is disingenuous, I think you understand exactly what BB's style is and that its

effective regardless of alignment.

Also, its interesting that you're scum hunting but null read half the field...

Doesn't that mean it could come from scum? I've given my reasons as to why I believe this.

Of course it could... Almost everything in this game

could

come from scum. That's not my point, my point is your case is disingenuous... it doesn't make sense with everything else you've posted. And I made my reasoning clear.

I'm off to sleep. The kiddos get up early. Good night!

I've refuted your stance actually and given counter-evidence as to why it isn't. Did you read what I've been saying up until this point?

You're gonna have to spell that out for me... I read but I don't see where I've been refuted..

[petapan]

Right now I think Lunar/BBMolla are good lims for the day, are you still null on BB? I'm not going to go into a tunnel about it so I was thinking of moving over to Lunar (probably because he would give me more on response). Other than that my strongest TR is Mikul

nah i'd flop to him

UNVOTE:
VOTE: bbmolla

My bias tells me Turtle came from an uninformed perspective due to the timing of his posts. This can be faked and I wouldn't clear him entirely, but that's where I'm putting him right now.

i'm not sure i agree but i want to try to draw a little more out of him

[safebet222]

Actually, trying to say 'read my old posts' is kinda a self-defeating argument in itself. I will say however that proceeding to call my stance disingenuous due to what I would deem to be prior behavior is a bit lazy on your end. Where does scummy and disagreement overlap? Right now I don't necessarily see your full perspective, and I don't know if you're willing to give it.

We could go on and on about 'what if's' but eventually people will have to pick a side which in turn gives me a broader read on everyone else so I welcome this.

It's kind of ironic that you say the underlined yet you're still null reading half the field... And you're scum read is based on a what if.

[petapan]

i don't think some degree of unertainty is unnatural,

particularly

with how a significant chunk of the people in this game have played. but as things go on i grow more underwhelmed with bbmolla and start to see his point there

[petapan]

faking tone is like second nature to me. faking real in-depth analysis is pretty hard, even for a veteran player.

What I mean is that I think Illwei's tone during their deeper level analysis seems towny to me vs. just the fact that deeper level analysis exists and Illwei is doing some of it. I'm not exactly sure why you think deeper level analysis would be hard to fake; aren't the systems and tools you employ to analyze someone else's posts/votes/etc repeatable regardless of alignment? You can follow the same process as scum or as town.

The only difference in deeper level analysis as scum would be that all of your scum reads (besides bussing other scum) would be wrong, which means your logic would be incorrect somewhere along the way. But it's easy for town to get things wrong somewhere along the way too, so being wrong early isn't exactly AI. You could follow the same deeper level analysis process you normally do to identify some true town.

I liked the tone/the way that Illwei's deeper level analysis functioned. I read that as towny. That being said, I may be giving people in this game too much credit.

just posting to say i didn't miss this reply, this is an interesting discussion but it veers too far into the realm of the theoretical and i don't want to derail the game. for now it's enough to say that illwei seems all right and he's said a few things that resonated with me.

[unwnd]

That's what happens D1. You don't know anything so you make assumptions and build argumentative proof over the course of time. I think your behavior is a bit obstinate and I haven't determined if that's intentional or not, safebet

[Mikul]

I also read his vote on unwnd as really town.

er, why, exactly?

He posted something. The vote was near instant and without justification. It came off as a "aha gotcha"

That reads town to me. That and the lack of justification bleeds confidence with the read

[Mikul]

I think we are ironically going to have to steer this game for good or for bad. With the lack of overall activity and the passiveness of most of the players, dp1 is going to continue to be difficult.

That being said. I don't think I can lynch molla.

[Mikul]

We - meaning active players / vets

[Mikul]

The new people seem to lack the confidence to bite down on a read and the ringers are trying to give them room to learn and develop reads. I don't see that leading anywhere other than more inactivity and scrambling for a kill

[Mikul]

@uwnd

Can you give me a breakdown on why you think molla is scum. I feel like I'm the only person town reading him. Not a tldr but a full account of your thought process. I feel as if you are pulling punches and holding back a bit because it's a new player game and it's making me scum read you a bit. I'd prefer if you unleashed the beast

[Mikul]

The two things I'm having trouble separating in my mind are

Noob town vs scummy behavior

Passive play from ringers vs them giving noobs room to play

[petapan]

I think we are ironically going to have to steer this game for good or for bad. With the lack of overall activity and the passiveness of most of the players, dp1 is going to continue to be difficult.

That being said. I don't think I can lynch molla.

we have a week, so i'm not in panic mode yet, but i'm already shifting gears.

[Mikul]

@peta

It's more about the lack of activity. The way you catch people (especially on dp1) if flipping logic randomly. Weird behavior tells etc. There are people who are fully capable of carrying this game but aren't participating either because they are scum or they are trying to give room to new players.

I'd much prefer to be overwhelmed by ringers and vets than deal with a full on content drought. At least their is stuff to look at. Turtle for example can just be posting in a mafia pm and post his min req here expecting for us to think he's a noob. Activity is typically the best way to catch and read people as both scum and town.

I'd prefer if the rings just went ham

[petapan]

yeah, i get it. i'm trying to press turtle right now to figure out what his deal is, as it is he's someone who doesn't know what to say and that can be scum or complete noob town. i want something more out of him but as it stands right now that's a slot that has to be eliminated at some point in the game

my vote on bbmolla is a little more complicated but as the game evolves he seems largely content to hang back in the way you're talking about, his pushes have felt listless, he threw a vote on safebet but then never really interacted with or questioned safbet, just moved his vote over to turtle when turtle's inactivity became noticeable. it was like nothing safebet did or said

mattered

to him. i'm not getting the sense he's really

trying

to figure people out with any of those votes.

[Mikul]

How I see unwnd right now

[Mikul]

@peta maybe I'm over reading it. I tend to often do stupid stuff to invoke reactions. I figured he was just throwing votes around to see how people respond. But that may be a broad assumption. I'm open to hearing people's thoughts on him and reconsider. If you and safe want to go through without holding in back as to why he should the kick.

The issue is most of the people who have called him scum and have said it without any real justification or much insight. So I continue to relate his activity to the stupid stuff I do when I'm always scum read (and I'm town)

[BBmolla]

Hey this is bad form but I don’t want to spend another week wasting time on trying to convince y’all I’m town, so I’m just gonna hard claim that I’m probably a power role.

[BBmolla]

If I’m right about things a night kill on me is likely to fail but I welcome it and why I’m pretty okay claiming early

I’m honestly kind of okay executing Turtle at this point, if they can start to contribute more than cool but if their posting rate continues they are just going to be an unreadable enigma

[Mikul]

Probably?

Either way that is a very bad choice to say that

1) it can look like you are scared to claim which role because there is only 2 correct answers with the open setup

2) I'm not going to get into why this is bad if you are saying what I think you are. But this is assumption based on poe