PookyTheMagicalBear v Flavor Leaf (Game Over)

[Double the Trouble]

I'm able to tell how the gamestate will be 2 day phases from now, and you won't be thinking the game is solved then.

2 day phases?
I think I might just be able to see a bit further than that.

Yeah, but can you see what's happening.

I didn't say I couldn't see further than that, I said in 2 day phases, you won't be thinking the game is solved.

Well, I'd say I got a pretty good idea

Too bad Titus is the mod because I think she’d very likely come to a similar conclusion as me based off of the VCs I posted.

saint gameplay right here coming from gloria

[Creature]

We're probably only having this argument because we still need to finish the massclaim.

[Creature]

Unsurprisingly when I have a time for a game it is in it's most boring stage

[Polar Bear Express]

I'm able to tell how the gamestate will be 2 day phases from now, and you won't be thinking the game is solved then.

2 day phases?
I think I might just be able to see a bit further than that.

Yeah, but can you see what's happening.

I didn't say I couldn't see further than that, I said in 2 day phases, you won't be thinking the game is solved.

Well, I'd say I got a pretty good idea

Too bad Titus is the mod because I think she’d very likely come to a similar conclusion as me based off of the VCs I posted.

saint gameplay right here coming from gloria

So you’re seeing what I am then?

[Double the Trouble]

I'm able to tell how the gamestate will be 2 day phases from now, and you won't be thinking the game is solved then.

2 day phases?
I think I might just be able to see a bit further than that.

Yeah, but can you see what's happening.

I didn't say I couldn't see further than that, I said in 2 day phases, you won't be thinking the game is solved.

Well, I'd say I got a pretty good idea

Too bad Titus is the mod because I think she’d very likely come to a similar conclusion as me based off of the VCs I posted.

saint gameplay right here coming from gloria

So you’re seeing what I am then?

I'll comment later

[Polar Bear Express]

@DT, I honestly can’t tell anymore if you’re mocking me or agreeing with me? Did you read those VCs? Like hello. how isn’t it obvious to you?

[Double the Trouble]

I don't wanna comment right now

[Polar Bear Express]

I'm able to tell how the gamestate will be 2 day phases from now, and you won't be thinking the game is solved then.

2 day phases?
I think I might just be able to see a bit further than that.

Yeah, but can you see what's happening.

I didn't say I couldn't see further than that, I said in 2 day phases, you won't be thinking the game is solved.

Well, I'd say I got a pretty good idea

Too bad Titus is the mod because I think she’d very likely come to a similar conclusion as me based off of the VCs I posted.

saint gameplay right here coming from gloria

So you’re seeing what I am then?

I'll comment later

Well that’s the only reason I’m not saying anything yet because we haven’t finished the mass claims but like it’s so extremely obvious to me.

[Ircher]

ya know what Ircher, I'll give you the go ahead to just claim now.

I claim VT.

[Double the Trouble]

ya know what Ircher, I'll give you the go ahead to just claim now.

I claim VT.

reads?

[Polar Bear Express]

I know I haven’t been doing too much until recently but I’m really impatient that I have to keep my solve to myself until after all of the claims are finished.

[Ircher]

Reads:

I will note that these reads were before the mason claim, but I didn't bother to change my reads list to account for that. (Yes, I did remove my read on pichu.) Aside from removing pichu, this does not encompass anything that has occurred Day 3. Some of this material is recycled from my last reads list.

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%): Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

mastina (+91%): mastina has a reputation for being less involved in games where she is scum. That alone I think makes picking mastina a risky play for Flavor Leaf. Aside from that, while mastina has had several bad takes this game (especially day 1), she is engaged (which again tends to go against her scum meta) and seems to genuinely believe in her reads (as opposed to making them up as it suits her.) Her D2 takes have been much better.

Polar Bear Express (+85%): I think MURDERCAT's case had some merit, but overall, I think it's unlikely Noraa is scum here based on her engagement level. I will note she hasn't given too many reads that don't boil down to OMGUS, and that is a potential red flag. The hydra dissonance with regards to voting isn't something I think comes from scum. Either you agree to bus or agree to defend, but flip-flopping not so much, especially if Flavor Leaf is orchestrating stuff.

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Neutral Town

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

Solstice (+52%):I think the way they handled the Bell wagon was reasonable. Most of Solstice's day 2 posting was good anyway.

user]Double the Trouble[/user] (+42%): I think their general reads and trajectory suggests they are town, and I have mostly liked their interactions, but at the same time, I think they are the kind of players that I will just glaze over and auto-townread.

Dunnstral (+37%): I think he had some good takes and observations early on as I mentioned to MURDERCAT earlier such as 180. He has mentioned several times that the thread is hard to read (such as in 1107), it's possible Dunnstral is using it as a bit of a smokescreen to avoid doing actual work. A lot of his reads seem to go against the grain early on, and I also consider that a plus. His Day 2 posting seemed a bit more lackluster (I think I've given him a bit too much of a free pass so to speak), and that makes me a bit suspicious of the slot. Overall, this is still a townread but not a particularly strong one.

Null

(0%-30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Spiffeh (+26%): I am actually super paranoid about this slot right now. As I said, they haven't done anything that strongly point to them being town, and I think that's a red flag given that Spiffeh is a pretty good scumhunter. l think it's important to keep a close eye on the slot. I am still not keen on eliminating him rn, but the concern about being in the vig pool D2 did not look good.

Dr Easy Bake (+25%): They did basically nothing Day 1, but I'm discounting that as part of Dr Easy Bake's style. Their day 2 posts seem to be a somewhat good sign, but this slot also has very high scum equity still. They also claimed Detective and Bell flipped scum, so that's +town points as well.

Neutral Scum

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

Toogeloo (-32%): They claimed VT in their first post, which has a higher likelihood of coming from town. I'm not really a fan of their stance to the Bell wagon, and I don't like their 3948 and 3951 as the statements made about mastina are strictly untrue/a huge stretch.

Creature (-50%): This slot was a solid null day 1 mainly because I was wary of jumping the gun so to speak. Creature is fairly active in this game, but he is also rather disengaged, and that tends to be scum indicative for him. 2785 looks really bad considering he didn't express any doubt before then. 2794 and 2842 are nonsensical takes that make me think Creature is pushing an agenda here. I think 2917 might be a comment from town!Creature, but at the same time, it's not really a comment that makes sense to me in the context of this game. Overall, the disengagement and bad/nonsensical takes Day 2 are making me lean towards scum here. The fact he was the counterwagon to flipped scum Bell does reduce his scum equity some.

MURDERCAT (-55%): I still kinda think this slot is wandering aimlessly without a sense of direction or purpose. I'm not really a fan of how he approached the Bell wagon especially in posts like 3910 and 4220. Including mastina in his solve in 3905 is rather worrying.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this reads list

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null section contains both townreads and scumreads, and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a quadratic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be less than the difference between 30% and 60%.

Solve rn is probably Toogeloo + 1 of {Spiffeh, Dunnstral} + 1 of {Ydrasse, Dr Easy Bake}.

[Double the Trouble]

now we wait for mastina

[Ydrasse]

does ircher actually think im scum if he doesnt have me in his reads list ..............

[Solstice]

ircher, where would ydrasse go in that list?

~mist

[Solstice]

Here is the order
Spiffeh - Claims VT
Dunnstral - claimed vt
Polar Bears - claimed vt
Pichu - flipped cop
mastina
Ircher - claimed vt
Ydrasse
Solstice
Toogeloo
DEB

this is all correct yes

~mist

[Blade Dancer]

Official Vote Count 3.1

Not Voting

(12): Double the Trouble, Spiffeh, Toogelo, Ircher, Ydrasse, mastina, Dr Easy Bake, Solstice, Polar Bear Express, Creature, Dunnstral, MURDERCAT
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to execute.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-12-28 21:25:00)

[/color]

[Ircher]

ircher, where would ydrasse go in that list?

~mist

It was a cut paste issue. I think I forgot to paste after cutting. Ydrasse would be between Double and Solstice, probably something like +46% confidence.

[Toogeloo]

Here is the order
Spiffeh - Claims VT
Dunnstral - claimed vt
Polar Bears - claimed vt
Pichu - flipped cop
mastina
Ircher - claimed vt
Ydrasse
Solstice
Toogeloo
DEB

this is all correct yes

~mist

I'm VT, DEB is detective. Did I miss the PB&E VT claim somewhere?

[Double the Trouble]

Yes.

vt

[Spiffeh]

maybe we're all VT's and we already won!

[Double the Trouble]

ok mickey mouse

[Double the Trouble]

you don't even have ur avatar facing the post.
thats honestly teh most not town indicative thing from you tbh

[mastina]

I was trying to signal to you that you were right I was a mason and you should apply the same logic to creature

Oh.

Mastina is indeed town as they were crumbing that they suspected MC to be mason, yet MC didn't die tonight. Which seems an unlikely decision if Mastina was in the scum team.
- Norwee

Devil's advocate: I wouldn't necessarily encourage a mason-shot, and even if I did, I could be overriden by FL.

My reads haven't changed to much after yesterday. Noraa and mastina are my top two scum reads.

Ircher, ydrasse, and Dunn are all varying degrees of null.
I liked Spiffeh day 1, it didn't really drop on day 2. Murder and Double Trouble were town reads through Day 1 and 2, and I'm glad they are Mason's. I've added Solstice to my heavy town lean.

DEBs read is currently the most fenced.

I'll reclaim VT ahead of the people complaining that I get to go last just so we get it out of the way and they can't complain anymore.

Toogeloo claimed and gave reads out of order, must be lockscum.

Yes.

vt

That makes it my turn.

VT.

As far as reads go, lemme just post this quickly so that the reads are in a separate post that's easier to read and find, but basic cliffnotes:
I cannot in good faith betray the trust of pichu and thus feel obligated to sheep pichu on Ydrasse/PBE being town, and overall I still feel Solstice is town, so the pool I am looking at is {Spiffeh, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake, Toogeloo} but I wanna extrapolate on that in a separate post dedicated to the reads, lemme post that and then give me like...half an hour or so to write it up.

[mastina]

Alive Players:

[/color]
Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary)
Ydrasse
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet)
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral
Ircher

With the masons alive, this is the players left to sort.

There's three scum left, so it is appropriate to reevaluate townreads, but...

I really really really want to sheep pichu in his faith in Ydrasse and Polar Bear Express. As I seem to recall, those two slots were among his top townreads and I really really want to trust him on them. So I really want to have faith that pichu was correct, and write them off as town.

Ircher I have felt has been pretty town the entire game long. His handling of everything, as well as his stances, have felt like they came from town. He's been reasonable, rational, and overall felt like he was coming from a town mindset and not playing to FL's gameplan. While I realize that there could be deepscum, I just don't think it's him.

Solstice actually looks far better overall to me today in my opinion. I've really loved Morning Tweet's contributions and feel that MT's assessment of the claims yesterday was highly highly town. Misty's lowered presence is a bit concerning, but she's looked town while around and overall the slot has been acting in a way that I don't think scum act in this game.

Which leaves:
Spiffeh
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral

4 names for 3 scum.

I think there's no world in which Toogeloo is town--he is pretty much lockscum here.

Dunnstral could be town or scum here, but his status is pretty much dependent on the other two, which bring to mind the following questions:

Do the scum have a deepscum player who was fairly active?

If the answer to this is yes, then Spiffeh is scum, because he's the only player among the four to meet that criteria. He's been active and reasonably town, but very easily could be scum. But there's quite possibly the chance of 'no'--in which case, all of the scum were in the lurkers and Spiffeh is town. If Spiffeh is town, then Dunnstral is scum and DEB is scum, but if he's scum, then one of them is town.

I personally would feel guilty eliminating Spiffeh today regardless of his alignment. If he's scum I kinda want to pay him the respect of leaving him until there's three scum dead. And if he is town, I feel I owe that to him to help give him the time to prove that he is town by helping the town eliminate scum. But this is one of the main questions I need to figure out an answer for; if Spiffeh is the scum's deepscum, or if the scum didn't have any deepscum.

Did the scum plan a double-detective claim?

If the answer to this is yes, then Dr Easy Bake is scum. But there is at least the chance that this is a 'no'--in which case, if he is town, then Spiffeh and Dunnstral are both scum. I can see the case either way here, but since DEB is claiming he has a spicy result, he might be town here.

It should be noted; for Dunnstral to be town, it requires the scum to have an active deepscum (Spiffeh)

and

for scum to have planned a double-detective claim (DEB).

At daystart, I was thinking Toogeloo-DEB-Dunn with a chance of Spiffeh, but while my thoughts are still not fully formed yet, I can't really properly form full thoughts right now (I took a nap while I was waiting to wake up in the hopes that it would kickstart my brain but my brain is still in 'waking up' mode right now so I'm not fully firing on all cylinders), but right now I actually lean towards Spiffeh-Dunnstral-Toogeloo.

I do feel the need to reiterate; no matter what, I think Toogeloo is scum here. I don't think that the scumteam is ever Spiffeh-Dunnstral-DEB here.
Which is why I feel like my vote there is the best overall.

I also think that, while Dunnstral has done a fair amount to look town, there is a certain level of resonance in him being scum--I can explain my scumread on Toogeloo quite well, but on Dunnstral while the thoughts don't form as easily it just resonates on a gut level as being overall something that I see.

Similarly, DEB being town is something I've no evidence for, just gut. I am still concerned about the possibility that he's scum with the whole stunt being a double-fakeclaim, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, if we do eliminate two scum, then DEB will produce innocents--if he is a real detective, FL will literally be forced to kill him or else risk generating hard-clears. If he isn't a real detective, that'll become more obvious with time. So he shouldn't be the elimination yet, maybe ever.

Spiffeh is someone who I can't really sort as town or scum conclusively right now, but if my assumptions on who are town is correct, then he'd by necessity be the third scum.

So overall, right now my preferred elimination order would be: Toogeloo > Dunnstral > Spiffeh > Dr Easy Bake.