In post 3290, Taly wrote:Cakez doesn't feel like scum here either. He hopped off Bell when it got traction for a gut doubt that BM had, but returned when he felt it most likely.
It's a bit ironic that Cakez pushes BM as potential scum for sharing his uncertainty, haha.
the difference here is that SirCakez feels BM was trying to pull a last-ditch save on Bell as opposed to being "uncertain"
notice how BM never really elaborated on why he ditched the Bell wagon so late
VOTE: battle mage
reck provided uncertainty on SirCakez's read on TGP
It was my gut feeling, not borne of nothing, but I respect the rule about not referring to ongoing games. If it's possible to explain more later, I can. From recollection, I wasn't exactly sold on Bell as town - he was still one of my relatively higher scumreads. But I had cold feet on meta grounds and the way the wagon evolved. So was I ultimately wrong? yeah. But did I do anything remotely close to attempting to 'save him'? not really. Unless you think I'm the world's most ineffectual scum partner (which I'm not ).
I can't say much more dude, beyond suggesting you go back and re-read how it played out, and also consider how you think I actually play as scum.
It looks like you've jumped the gun on TGP and Reck in my view.
i think this is good, blitzo hasn't really done anything to remove my scumread on him.
zoom is some great videoconferencing software
yeah Blitzo is still up there for me, especially given how yesterday played out (as I recall, Blitzo was one of the late jumpers, which felt like prime bus territory).
I'll vote here for now, but if the posting rate isn't too high, I'm actually planning to re-read a bit.
, but at this point, the wagon had gained traction, and the latter half could have a potential bus
{Taly, Blitzo, Reck}
if we go by the idea that scum didn't exist early-wagon.
Cakez
doesn't feel like scum here either. He hopped off
Bell
when it got traction for a gut doubt that
BM
had, but returned when he felt it most likely.
It's a bit ironic that
Cakez
pushes
BM
as potential scum for sharing his uncertainty, haha.
Reck
also votes
Bell
and votes
Haschel
and I think someone else, but it's more erratic than I'd consider how scum would vote at this point.
I'll also note that
TGP/DGB/Reck
were the last ones on the wagon in this instance, including the hammer.
~~~
This wasn't much of a VCA, but it does make me feel better about
BM/Cakez
.
Titus
almost never makes with
Bell
as a scumteam so I'm not even interested in talking about that.[/color][/quote]
A skim of this - some of the reasoning based on vote patterns is the exact opposite of what I would have concluded. But Taly is good, so maybe I'm just dumb. *shrug*
think there is any chance that I'm scum and just made up that 3 people could give me an alibi? i'm not sure i really understand the benefit of scum lying about their rooms being locked anyway - they don't actually complete tasks, so what does it matter? It's not like I ended up in a room with 1 other person and they mysteriously died.
i think this day is gonna be hard work...
based off gameplay, i can solidly argue how you're town, i was just tripped up by your entry post this dayphase and i think 2858 has some rough edges to the solve, but I'm not going further than that yet because the conclusive
bell
vote was correct.
{DGB, Flea, Haschel, TGP}
is a good pool, maybe
Pooky
there as well.
i am aware that there must at least be 1-2 town among this group of 5, so I'm ISOing these people this dayphase.
Battle Mage wrote:Titus being alive worries me slightly, given how yesterday played out. Surely she gets NKed over Gamma there?
I pretty much thought
Titus/Gamma/I
had a near-equal chance of getting the NK.
I think you could argue Gamma played well here, but he's always going to be a bit of a liability in terms of tunnelling me. It's a surprising kill, if scum were planning to mis-elim me today.
BM scummy for other reasons i've talked about before, I think with Bell's wagon scum are likely to be either off the wagon completely or near the tail end
my suspects are BM, DGB, Flea. BM I feel most stronk about
VOTE: Battle Mage
failed task yesterday, posting still weird today
failed task yesterday? Dude I havent even had the opportunity to attempt my task yet.
I'm disappointed that my efforts to talk to you in the PT were in vain. I think we just completely disagree on the wagonomics stuff (which will be a learning point for one of us). I don't feel a strong urge to revisit my townread on you, but assuming you are town, please get it together.
This could be a frustrating day if people don't really reflect on stuff, as the way yesterday played out, there are basically 2 occam's razor conclusions about my slot:
1. I'm town (or scum pulling an extremely bold, and unnecessary, gambit)
2. my reads are a bit crap
think there is any chance that I'm scum and just made up that 3 people could give me an alibi? i'm not sure i really understand the benefit of scum lying about their rooms being locked anyway - they don't actually complete tasks, so what does it matter? It's not like I ended up in a room with 1 other person and they mysteriously died.
i think this day is gonna be hard work...
based off gameplay, i can solidly argue how you're town, i was just tripped up by your entry post this dayphase and i think 2858 has some rough edges to the solve, but I'm not going further than that yet because the conclusive
bell
vote was correct.
{DGB, Flea, Haschel, TGP}
is a good pool, maybe
Pooky
there as well.
i am aware that there must at least be 1-2 town among this group of 5, so I'm ISOing these people this dayphase.
Battle Mage wrote:Titus being alive worries me slightly, given how yesterday played out. Surely she gets NKed over Gamma there?
I pretty much thought
Titus/Gamma/I
had a near-equal chance of getting the NK.
also re: 2858, I wasn't so much cautious on Day 2, as just a bit burnt out from mafia in general.
In post 3245, Haschel Cedricson wrote:Good evening, guys, gals, and non-binary pals; first of all I want to confirm what Taly said earlier about myself and Flea The Magicial all forming a trio that took up residence in the Administration room last night. The three of us were there and we talked a little bit about the Bell wagon although admittedly I did not have time to post much in there for the latter portion of the Night Phase.
Now Bell was scummy as fuck yesterday. I was not voting for him at the end of the day but I feel that my stance on that wagon was well-signaled to the rest of the town. Curiously, there are three other names that I have noticed were not voting for Bell at the end of the day and I am about to mention those names in my next sentence that I am about to say now. Those names are Battle Mage, PookyTheMagicalBear, and Maestro, who replaced Alisae near the beginning of Day 2. Why do I specifically call out those three? That is an excellent question and I urge you all to continue reading my post in order to ascertain the answer.
We learned yesterday that the scum (or the Impostors if we are to use the framing device the flavor of this game has) were able to lock people OUT of rooms. This was discovered when the Electrical Room was locked on Night 1. However, with our revelation today from Reck and the other people who were locked inside the cafeteria last night, we now have confirmation that the Impostors have the ability to trap people INSIDE specific rooms. This is a strong power that gives the impostors a lot of room to interfere with crewmates completing tasks, and it makes it MUCH more likely that the impostors had a vested interest in getting the town to claim how many tasks we had and in which locations those tasks were supposed to be. As such, I think looking at the people who strongarmed the bulk of the playerlist into claiming is the best place to start applying pressure today.
Unrelated my task
sucks
so don't expect me to reply immediately to any posts.
eh, I think from your list of 3, I'm probably a distant 3rd, given:
A. I was by some margin, less 'strong-arming' than Alisae-Pooky who actually co-ordinated stuff. I just sheeped and agreed with them (which incidentally, I broadly stand by, in the absence of knowing what the scum mech was).
B. I have been a victim of both room lockings. We discussed in our PT last night, it is slightly less likely that scum (proportionately) were in the cafeteria as it prevents scum from moving and potentially being able to kill or whatever, and also means scum don't get to stop town completing tasks.
I'm slightly surprised you feel the need to defend being off-wagon yesterday, when in all likelihood scum would be on wagon. I feel increasingly like I'm in a parallel mafia universe here. Y'all know bussing is a thing right?
The best way to stop scumkills is to announce rooms.
it's also the best way to make sure we don't get tasks done since they can sabo whatever room we're sending people to
both of these things are true. on balance, i prefer we announce rooms and stop scumkills to try and win this game the old fashioned way - given we have 1 scum down already. there aren't that many tasks anyway!?
2 more miscellaneous thoughts and then I'm done for the night:
1. If there are 2 kills a night, will we know which was the normal NK and which was the special NK? If not, then I expect scum to almost always take the opportunity for the double kill. However, if they were distinguishable, scum might well choose not to take the 2nd NK for risk of outting themselves. If the former, I'm fine with Reck and TGP as presumed town for the time being (I can't even remember what my read on TGP was...)
2. My heart says Pooky is scum here. He just feels so distant and un-invested. Like he's got a really crap scumteam. Also 1 post in the PT last night pinged me (something about scum always wanting to bus Bell, hence Pooky town because he wanted on the wagon - which is a reasonable assertion but it came a bit out of nowhere, and from my experience Pooky is not a big busser by preference.
In post 3309, Battle Mage wrote:2. My heart says Pooky is scum here. He just feels so distant and un-invested. Like he's got a really crap scumteam. Also 1 post in the PT last night pinged me (something about scum always wanting to bus Bell, hence Pooky town because he wanted on the wagon - which is a reasonable assertion but it came a bit out of nowhere, and from my experience Pooky is not a big busser by preference.
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee
"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
@BM: if you're even entertaining me as scum with the way i tried to quickhammer Bell and then doubled down when people started pushing me for it then you're smoking a ton of meth
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee
"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
In post 3054, MURDERCAT wrote:I DON'T REALLY HAVE A CASE I HAVE A POE. I DON'T ACTUALLY THINK TITUS IS SCUM, I WAS JUST ANNOYED. I DID KINDA PLAY IT UP A BIT TO GET A REACTION, THOUGH I'M NOT SURE I ACTUALLY GOT ANYTHING OUT THE REACTION..
BLITZO
THEGOLDENPARADOX
FLEA THE MAGICIAN
HASCHEL CEDRICSON
DRIPPINGGOOFBALL
BATTLE MAGE
GAMMA EMERALD
TITUS
BELL
LOOKING AT THIS LIST I'M NOT SURE ABOUT TITUS AND HC, BUT THE FACT THEY DIDN'T KILL EACH OTHER MEANS THEY ARE PROBABLY MORE LIKELY TO BE TOWN. SAME WITH GAMMA AND BM PLUS I KINDA FEEL OK WITH BOTH OF THEM. SO THAT LEADS ME HERE:
BLITZO
THEGOLDENPARADOX
FLEA THE MAGICIAN
DRIPPINGGOOFBALL
BELL
I DOUBT ALL THE SCUM ARE IN THIS LIST, BUT I BET THERE'S AT LEAST 2 IF NOT 3.
THE TGP VOTE IS ALL GUT, I DON'T HAVE A CASE OR ANYTHING. THERE'S THE POSSIBILITY THAT HC AND TITUS ARE SCUM TOGETHER (MUCH LESS LIKELY BM/GAMMA I THINK) WHICH THROWS THIS LIST OFF, BUT I'M HAPPY ENOUGH WITH IT FOR NOW.
OF THIS LIST I THINK THAT TGP AND FLEA BOTH HAVE HIGH SCUM EQUITY. I PROBABLY FEEL BLITZO IS MOST TOWN IN THE LIST. BUT LIKE I SAID, ALL GUT.
I'm getting cold feet on Bell. Let's go with VOTE: Blitzo
In post 3078, Battle Mage wrote:i believe Titus could be town, pushing a mislim on Bell-town here. Which means maybe we're just on the wrong track.
Although I'm sympathetic to the idea we need to lim SOMEBODY, I also think a lazy mis-elim after 124 pages is dumb.
In post 3080, Battle Mage wrote:i dunno, we've got time, and it'd be good to test some other wagons. I'll think on it.
In post 3070, Blitzo wrote:/shrug
There's a reasonable chance he's scum here but I really cba dealing with this noise rn when Bell is just sitting there, doing nothing.
It doesn't even really seem like there's a reason to get cold feet on Bell here either tbh.
lol if you're scum here, you're the worst how you make it to Day 3 with a strategy of "I'll just act really confused about everything that happens", I can't believe
Well.
You have no actual reasoning outside of the fact that I've suspected you since day 1, you don't explain your reads and take baseless potshots at me every other page.
If you really want to figure me out or ask some questions or do something remotely towny, go ahead.
Otherwise...Keep doing you I guess.
yeah too defensive bro
In post 3084, Battle Mage wrote:like, why would Blitzo-town just spend all game OMGUSing without any real evidence of solving? when push comes to shove, he just wants to flip some fools.
i mean, worst case scenario is Blitzo is town who is really struggling
is that they're playing similar to an instance I know of them to be scum. I cannot elaborate, but they haven't responded much to the points onto them, their reads aren't too fleshed out, and they were quite inoffensive D1 and haven't outlined many unique opinions of the game. I don't know what their baseline is, so my reasoning in this basis is weak, but I think
Titus
knows something I don't and I trust that.
If you had to wagon 2 more people right now, who would they be? I think you voted
Blitzo
recently but I'm still not seeing much detail to your thoughts there aside from painting their posts as OMGUSy or WIFOM-based. I don't entirely disagree, but I want more thought than that.[/color]
i'll go one better and do a very short readslist
In post 3106, Battle Mage wrote:Very Town:
SirCakez
Murdercat
Taly
Haschel Cedricson
Gamma Emerald
OutWorldER
Titus
not in the townbloc but not on the chopping block today:
thegoldenparadox
Flea The Magician
DrippingGoofBall
Bell
Would consider elimming today:
xRECKONERx
PookyTheMagicalBear
Blitzo
Maestro
list is in order, highest is most town. i'm pretty confident with my townbloc. Probably 1 scum there just by sheer statistical probability, but scoped out for now.
In post 3105, SirCakez wrote:if we use Taly's theory that scum should be starting counterwagons here if Bell is scum BM's vote looks pretty bad
lol you could interpret it that way, but there's a lot of unknowns here. If I was scum with Bell, would I abandon the bus at this late stage, to...be the first and only vote on Blitzo? and it's not as if I'd really pushed it hard as a counterwagon. It's all possible I guess, but I don't think you'll find any examples of me doing that as scum ever
If anything, it's probably more likely I'm scum if Bell flips town here, given I helped build the wagon, and am now distancing myself from it.
In general, there's like no reason for me to jump off the Bell wagon here as scum though, as it just looks odd.
scum probably off the wagon, though I don't think this reduces the chances Bell is scum (might even increase them)
we have 2 days left, I'd rather not repeat yesterday's no flip, everybody knows where they're going (I think), the task is claimed
I'm assuming if Bell is scum here, scum are most definitely on the wagon. There's like no reason not to be? dead cert elim, and no counterwagon, so may as well bus.
if Bell is town, which I increasingly think is more likely, scum could be on or off.
BM how can you say you were not really trying to save bell here
SirCakez dislikes how BM is framing his counter wagon attempt as a nothing burger bad read as opposed to a serious attempt to stop the elim from going through on Bell
Also, do you think scum purposely locks out a buddy twice in a row?
~~~
BM
, why are
TGP/Reck
more suspicious than say,
Cakez/MC
, if you think so? You could make the same argument that they're S/S or scum did not want to be incriminated. In the same vein, I want to know if you think
Haschel
could've been scum N1 that refused to kill
Titus
for credit.
I also want to hear what
"opposite conclusions"
you have after skimming my VCA post. I feel like I'm getting
BoP'd
in this game at the moment, and I'm wondering where that minor plot will lead to.
~~~
Pooky
, tbh, I agree with
BM's
assertion that you seem very disengaged and I can't remember the few opinions you have other than
Haschel
is scum?
~~~
Reck
, what is your solve at the moment?
~~~
Flea
being inactive isn't going to help trying to pressure that slot at all >: and
Haschel
has already expressed he be less active.
Haschel
, I'm still not fond of your opening post this dayphase. I feel like it's easy for scum to plant a red herring behind an opening posts that suspects multiple people at once based on a behavior rather than trying to resolve who may be town or who is most likely scum. Your diction is also fluffy in that same opener for today.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
In post 3311, xRECKONERx wrote:@BM: if you're even entertaining me as scum with the way i tried to quickhammer Bell and then doubled down when people started pushing me for it then you're smoking a ton of meth
you realise Bell flipped scum? so yes, all else being equal, I would absolutely entertain that as a pretty standard scumplay. your saving grace potentially is the fact you and TGP didn't kill each other last night.
In post 3054, MURDERCAT wrote:I DON'T REALLY HAVE A CASE I HAVE A POE. I DON'T ACTUALLY THINK TITUS IS SCUM, I WAS JUST ANNOYED. I DID KINDA PLAY IT UP A BIT TO GET A REACTION, THOUGH I'M NOT SURE I ACTUALLY GOT ANYTHING OUT THE REACTION..
BLITZO
THEGOLDENPARADOX
FLEA THE MAGICIAN
HASCHEL CEDRICSON
DRIPPINGGOOFBALL
BATTLE MAGE
GAMMA EMERALD
TITUS
BELL
LOOKING AT THIS LIST I'M NOT SURE ABOUT TITUS AND HC, BUT THE FACT THEY DIDN'T KILL EACH OTHER MEANS THEY ARE PROBABLY MORE LIKELY TO BE TOWN. SAME WITH GAMMA AND BM PLUS I KINDA FEEL OK WITH BOTH OF THEM. SO THAT LEADS ME HERE:
BLITZO
THEGOLDENPARADOX
FLEA THE MAGICIAN
DRIPPINGGOOFBALL
BELL
I DOUBT ALL THE SCUM ARE IN THIS LIST, BUT I BET THERE'S AT LEAST 2 IF NOT 3.
THE TGP VOTE IS ALL GUT, I DON'T HAVE A CASE OR ANYTHING. THERE'S THE POSSIBILITY THAT HC AND TITUS ARE SCUM TOGETHER (MUCH LESS LIKELY BM/GAMMA I THINK) WHICH THROWS THIS LIST OFF, BUT I'M HAPPY ENOUGH WITH IT FOR NOW.
OF THIS LIST I THINK THAT TGP AND FLEA BOTH HAVE HIGH SCUM EQUITY. I PROBABLY FEEL BLITZO IS MOST TOWN IN THE LIST. BUT LIKE I SAID, ALL GUT.
I'm getting cold feet on Bell. Let's go with VOTE: Blitzo
In post 3078, Battle Mage wrote:i believe Titus could be town, pushing a mislim on Bell-town here. Which means maybe we're just on the wrong track.
Although I'm sympathetic to the idea we need to lim SOMEBODY, I also think a lazy mis-elim after 124 pages is dumb.
In post 3080, Battle Mage wrote:i dunno, we've got time, and it'd be good to test some other wagons. I'll think on it.
In post 3070, Blitzo wrote:/shrug
There's a reasonable chance he's scum here but I really cba dealing with this noise rn when Bell is just sitting there, doing nothing.
It doesn't even really seem like there's a reason to get cold feet on Bell here either tbh.
lol if you're scum here, you're the worst how you make it to Day 3 with a strategy of "I'll just act really confused about everything that happens", I can't believe
Well.
You have no actual reasoning outside of the fact that I've suspected you since day 1, you don't explain your reads and take baseless potshots at me every other page.
If you really want to figure me out or ask some questions or do something remotely towny, go ahead.
Otherwise...Keep doing you I guess.
yeah too defensive bro
In post 3084, Battle Mage wrote:like, why would Blitzo-town just spend all game OMGUSing without any real evidence of solving? when push comes to shove, he just wants to flip some fools.
i mean, worst case scenario is Blitzo is town who is really struggling
is that they're playing similar to an instance I know of them to be scum. I cannot elaborate, but they haven't responded much to the points onto them, their reads aren't too fleshed out, and they were quite inoffensive D1 and haven't outlined many unique opinions of the game. I don't know what their baseline is, so my reasoning in this basis is weak, but I think
Titus
knows something I don't and I trust that.
If you had to wagon 2 more people right now, who would they be? I think you voted
Blitzo
recently but I'm still not seeing much detail to your thoughts there aside from painting their posts as OMGUSy or WIFOM-based. I don't entirely disagree, but I want more thought than that.[/color]
i'll go one better and do a very short readslist
In post 3106, Battle Mage wrote:Very Town:
SirCakez
Murdercat
Taly
Haschel Cedricson
Gamma Emerald
OutWorldER
Titus
not in the townbloc but not on the chopping block today:
thegoldenparadox
Flea The Magician
DrippingGoofBall
Bell
Would consider elimming today:
xRECKONERx
PookyTheMagicalBear
Blitzo
Maestro
list is in order, highest is most town. i'm pretty confident with my townbloc. Probably 1 scum there just by sheer statistical probability, but scoped out for now.
In post 3105, SirCakez wrote:if we use Taly's theory that scum should be starting counterwagons here if Bell is scum BM's vote looks pretty bad
lol you could interpret it that way, but there's a lot of unknowns here. If I was scum with Bell, would I abandon the bus at this late stage, to...be the first and only vote on Blitzo? and it's not as if I'd really pushed it hard as a counterwagon. It's all possible I guess, but I don't think you'll find any examples of me doing that as scum ever
If anything, it's probably more likely I'm scum if Bell flips town here, given I helped build the wagon, and am now distancing myself from it.
In general, there's like no reason for me to jump off the Bell wagon here as scum though, as it just looks odd.
scum probably off the wagon, though I don't think this reduces the chances Bell is scum (might even increase them)
we have 2 days left, I'd rather not repeat yesterday's no flip, everybody knows where they're going (I think), the task is claimed
I'm assuming if Bell is scum here, scum are most definitely on the wagon. There's like no reason not to be? dead cert elim, and no counterwagon, so may as well bus.
if Bell is town, which I increasingly think is more likely, scum could be on or off.
BM how can you say you were not really trying to save bell here
did you read the posts you quoted? I'm going to bed, gimme something better than this if you actually want to have a serious conversation.
In post 3316, SirCakez wrote:SirCakez dislikes how BM is framing his counter wagon attempt as a nothing burger bad read as opposed to a serious attempt to stop the elim from going through on Bell
please go back and read what happened. there was no meaningful 'counter wagon attempt'. I voted Blitzo who has 0 votes before, and only 1 vote after. I declined the opportunity to join other existing, larger wagons which would have been potentially meaningful counter-wagons. I expressed misgivings about the Bell wagon, but also didn't launch a defence which was likely to persuade anybody else - it was really just for my own satisfaction of wanting to be correct. At best, you could say I distanced myself from the scum-elim. which serves no value as scum. Cakez, do you copy, come in Cakez.
I think you're just tunnelled on me dude, and this is probably a pointless conversation. But as I've asked before, if you're town, please actually go back and read what happened and recognise that your characterisation above is completely inaccurate.
1 vote on Blitzo, without much fanfare, was hardly "a serious attempt to stop the elim from going through on Bell", and quoting a dozen random posts doesn't convince me you've given this more than 10 seconds thought.
I'll be catching up in a little bit.
BM's statement in that he clarifies his vote on me as "without much fanfare" is pretty inaccurate from what I recall - his push at that time seemed extremely obtuse and he still didn't have much of a reason for it even when pressed by other players iirc. Even then it seems like his vote has nothing behind it. I'm completely lost as to how to even engage this at this point so what gives?
Though I guess "without much fanfare" also means that it's a push that he agrees is bad but still wants it anyways?
Some weird cogdis going on there and I don't like it - I also don't like how I can't engage him on anything and it seems like he's more content twisting my words than figuring me out. Alternatively maybe I'm reading into it too much but it doesn't really matter since he basically won't talk to me at all so there's that.
It seems like he's 100% tunneled on me and I'm not sure what else can really be said about it or to him at this point - if he's somehow town here this is some pretty poor play on his end.
In post 3311, xRECKONERx wrote:@BM: if you're even entertaining me as scum with the way i tried to quickhammer Bell and then doubled down when people started pushing me for it then you're smoking a ton of meth
you realise Bell flipped scum? so yes, all else being equal, I would absolutely entertain that as a pretty standard scumplay. your saving grace potentially is the fact you and TGP didn't kill each other last night.
yes, i tried to quickhammer my buddy? under no pressure? that's your theory?
the difference here is that SirCakez feels BM was trying to pull a last-ditch save on Bell as opposed to being "uncertain"In post 3290, Taly wrote:Cakez doesn't feel like scum here either. He hopped off Bell when it got traction for a gut doubt that BM had, but returned when he felt it most likely.
). 
