Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[Illwei]

Okay wait I need to think about this.

There are 9 of us. 6 townies and 3 scum, right?

D1- 6/3

if we lim a townie then

D2- 4/3

which is Ideal for Elims- elo, we'd have to vote out a townie every round or lose.

Now we have 6/9 people here whoa re okay with the Lunar train.

These seem in order of who voted so

Me- Started the Lunar vote
Peta -
unwnd -
Safebet -
Quiet -
Turtle -
(Mikul? BB? someone said that Lunar was their other choice if something didn't go through, not sure which.)

If I had more time I'd go back through and find the reasoning that people gave, but yeah. I'm putting this here, if anyone feels like it's important enough to look into then do.

Did Lunar start up as a counterwagon to someone else? did this start as a counter to unwnd somehow? BB? Turtle? Is turtle a counterwagon to Lunar?
Are Scum trying to bus? I don't think that the Lunar wagon is solid and that doesn't make sense to me with Elo so within reach.

[BBmolla]

There are 9 of us. 6 townies and 3 scum, right?

reread the setup please

[Illwei]

Oh look at that who's real smart it's me definitely me but yeah that reinforces to me that Scum don't wanna be bussing. Maybe I should be happy to see this many people willing to be on the same person. maybe we're all town or whatnot.

[petapan]

There are 9 of us. 6 townies and 3 scum, right?

UNVOTE:

what prompted you to ask this?

[quiet]

@Mikul, in a world where I am not scum, who do you think is?

Semi-related, I'm also getting less and less happy with Lunar pileon, as I think a two ringer scumteam seems more likely than a 2 newbie scumteam, which is the main way LunarScum makes sense to me.
In a LunarScum world, paired with a newbie, I think:

{Lunar, Mr. Turtle}

makes the most sense with how fast votes piled up. If Lunar flipped scum, I would think Turtle; turtle wasn't in a position to defend Lunar when they got back.

{Lunar, me}

I don't think I get credit for, but hard for me to judge myself. As played today, I think this world looks objectively more likely than the {Lunar, ringer} worlds, but I know it's impossible.
{Lunar, Illwei} I give zero credit at all, unless that most recent...very confusing post...was a play.

For ringer pairings,

{Lunar, Mikul}

is maybe a vague possibility given Mikul's unrelenting sus on me, and slight disinterest now in voting Lunar; but Mikul's sus of me and general play is so damn towny, that I'm struggling to credit any scum!Mikul world. Also, I think there are better redirects Mikul could have done, like pushing Turtle more.

{Lunar, peta}

is the only other pair I think I could understand, but I'd need to re-read to justify.
{Lunar, BB} I don't see BB ever being a Lunar pair with his claim, intent to hammer, any of today.
{Lunar, safe} If anything, I sus safe if Lunar flips green:

At any rate.. Turtle is just always a policy elim, right? Almost always flipping town.

We're always just pushing Lunar here, right?

TLDR:
Feels like it would almost always be exactly {Lunar, Mr. Turtle} given the way today went down. And we've talked about elimming both of them. They've both been wagons. How likely is that? {Ringer, Ringer} is a lot scarier, and seems more probable than {Lunar, Mr. Turtle}.

More importantly, can anyone give me a Lunar team that I should be giving more credit to? Knowing that there were more lunar!Scum worlds that were sensible would make me feel a lot better.

Also BB, I really feel like I need to understand this better. Can you explain to me why specifically a Lunar flip will help you sort peta, as opposed to flipping someone different? Or does that need to wait to tmmrw. I've re-read a few times, and I don't see how that flip specifically helps.

[quiet]

There are 9 of us. 6 townies and 3 scum, right?

I...is anyone giving scum!Illwei credit for faking not knowing how many scum there are in this setup? scum!Illwei always knows the setup.

I'm going out on a limb here and say that I don't think scum!Illwei ever fakes not knowing. It's just so.... it's too much. I don't want it to be the case.

Anyone have a different read?

[Mikul]

As the holidays get closer I'm going to grow more and more in active. I may be odd completely from Christmas Eve until after Christmas weekend. The dp will be over then. I still really want to go quiet.

I think there are scum on the lunar wagon as I have mentioned. Votes seem opportunistic which really makes me question that read. If I'm getting no one on board with a bb claim then i am defaulting pack to quiet. Unwnd bothers me but not enough to hard read him as scum or push a lynch. Quiet has continuously been my rough read this dp and I don't see that read going anywhere. It just keeps worsening because his activity level and defense just grow the more he is scum read.

[Mikul]

Actually if I read illwei as serious and not actually knowing the setup. I 100 percent buy him as town. Want to look at that post and see if I think it's geniuine or feigned. If I think it's geniuine he's town locked.

[petapan]

There are 9 of us. 6 townies and 3 scum, right?

I...is anyone giving scum!Illwei credit for faking not knowing how many scum there are in this setup? scum!Illwei always knows the setup.

I'm going out on a limb here and say that I don't think scum!Illwei ever fakes not knowing. It's just so.... it's too much. I don't want it to be the case.

Anyone have a different read?

i have the exact opposite read. to me, it looks incredibly staged. i'm not sure why he bothered to ask about the setup now when we're 20 pages in and almost halfway to the deadline. he saw you asking if lunar had a partner, singular. he paid enough attention to see the phase length on page 1 but didn't read the setup? that seems unlikely, and i'm not sure why he'd assume 6:3. it looks like a slip planted for the sake of appearing town.

[Mikul]

Illwei

So I just, uh

/in (?)

(I have read all the rules pages and whatnot, I'm just also paranoid I missed something =P)

---

In the signup thread. Going to iso him before Christmas Eve. I may be willing to lynch him off that

[Mikul]

The 3 scum thing is either entirely feigned or town lock.

If he's scum. It's obviously feigned because he knows there is 2.

If he's town it implies he did not read the rules and is not scum because he would know there is 2. No reason to feign this as town.

[Mikul]

The fact that he said he was paranoid in the su makes me believe he would not miss the setup and the basic functionality of the game. Leads me to think this is feigned and trying to buy town points.

Illwei just moved to my other scum read along with quiet. Even over unwnd.

[Mikul]

Lynch order

Quiet - Ill. (don't care which now )
Uwnd
Molla - relevant to claim

[Mikul]

Also I hate playing the theory of game of this person and that person team

I just like getting 4 people in a scum pile and killing them all

[Mikul]

Like I'm legit almost wanting to lynch illwei over quiet in some ways now. That 3 scum thing was a total yikes

[Mikul]

For illwei to be town. I have to think he is either blind or stupid and judging by his posting styles he's very competent.

[Illwei]

There are 9 of us. 6 townies and 3 scum, right?

I...is anyone giving scum!Illwei credit for faking not knowing how many scum there are in this setup? scum!Illwei always knows the setup.

I'm going out on a limb here and say that I don't think scum!Illwei ever fakes not knowing. It's just so.... it's too much. I don't want it to be the case.

Anyone have a different read?

Shading?
"...anyone have a problem with this?"

i have the exact opposite read. to me, it looks incredibly staged. i'm not sure why he bothered to ask about the setup now when we're 20 pages in and almost halfway to the deadline. he saw you asking if lunar had a partner, singular. he paid enough attention to see the phase length on page 1 but didn't read the setup? that seems unlikely, and i'm not sure why he'd assume 6:3. it looks like a slip planted for the sake of appearing town.

Illwei

So I just, uh

/in (?)

(I have read all the rules pages and whatnot, I'm just also paranoid I missed something =P)

---

In the signup thread. Going to iso him before Christmas Eve. I may be willing to lynch him off that

;-;

The fact that he said he was paranoid in the su makes me believe he would not miss the setup and the basic functionality of the game. Leads me to think this is feigned and trying to buy town points.

Illwei just moved to my other scum read along with quiet. Even over unwnd.

Okay that makes more sense why you quoted the one above

Like I'm legit almost wanting to lynch illwei over quiet in some ways now. That 3 scum thing was a total yikes

;-;

For illwei to be town. I have to think he is either blind or stupid and judging by his posting styles he's very competent.

I'm just blind! please!
I looked at the setup a while ago, and the only think I remembered was the table, not how many scum there were. Someone else mentioned how we either lim Turtle now, or go into Elo with him- Implying that we have one mislim before elo, so that's why I assumed 3.

[Illwei]

Kinda sad you'd think I try that?
It's not like anyone was even reading me as super suspicious right now from what I can see, besides the continuous shade thrown by quiet. If I thought something like that would

work

, then...idk. probably save it for later? maybe...give it to my scumbuddy? idk that seems a terrible idea lol.

Question though: If I was scum, who would my partner be? I can't really think all that well but I haven't interacted with enough people to tell, personally. Maybe someone who hasn't read me village? or didn't read me village right away? Maybe Quiet? they've been reading me village, but everytime they do they go back and say something that implies they don't actually. Maybe they are new, want to read me village, but have TMI?

Anyways-

[unwnd]

VOTE: Illwei

[quiet]

that seems unlikely, and i'm not sure why he'd assume 6:3. it looks like a slip planted for the sake of appearing town.

Just....WHY.
Why would scum!Illwei make this play right now? Not being pressured that hard, Lunar or Mr. Turtle look like they're going to get lynched today...

It's not like anyone was even reading me as super suspicious right now from what I can see

Huh Illwei even said my argument for me.

I'm just not sure I can credit this as scumIllwei. But it's incredibly polarizing, either Illwei is conf town or conf scum.

ontinuous shade thrown by quiet

Illwei, quote me some shade I've been throwing. I've been trying to get you to commit to a read, to get you to give me just a little more, so I can confirm you as town in my head. Peta used one of my arguments for why I townread you as scumevidence against you. Other than that, I don't think I've been shading you whatsoever. My musings about scum!Illwei are how I'm going to remove you from my suspects pool.

What just happened is like, all of my reads on you times 100x. For this entire game, you've either been totally genuine, or committed to faking it. For the reasons I gave in my long post, I credit you being totally genuine the vast majority of the time. This is a "slip" is incredibly, incredibly polarizing; either you are 100% confirmed town, or you are scum. I still come down in favor of town.

[unwnd]

Peta, (BBMolla), Mikul, Safebet

These are the 4 people I don't want to lim today based on everything shared. I won't be giving another readslist like in the beginning (it's not my style) but I will take about those not in this list.

That leaves

Mr. Turtle
Illwei
Quiet
Lunar

Let me be frank, I want to believe that the two scum do not reside here. I think the biggest attribution of inexperience is one's ability to interact with your partner. I would have to say Mikul/Quiet would be doing very convincing rounds with each other if they were mates. Right now I think majority of the content being posted has come from town, with scum intermittently responding or popping up at convenient notice. I think Mikul's interpretations are a bit out there but the solving and tone still seem very likely town. Quiet is different in my eyes because he doesn't read as impromptu as his other walling counterpart, and everything he says is a bit laced with excuses like I noted early in the game. I think right now scum is lowballing because shockingly, this game has a lot of paragraph content, and I imagine if I were scum I'd be in a position of not knowing what to do with them. It's not that Quiet/Mikul are incapable of making walls or longform posts as scum, it's that the means they are interacting is too synonymous with one another and it has garnered a ton of attention.

Where does that leave Illwei and why is my vote on them? It's because I think they are just matching the pace and nothing else. I liked them early on and enjoyed their skepticism towards me, but it actually didn't go anywhere. The hesitance as pointed out by them asking if they vote someone does not read to me like a naturalistic townie who is worried about making the wrong choice, rather a potential scum who is trying to not endanger themselves by not making too many hasty decisions; Illwei has a guilty conscience that spills out. It doesn't fit the means of how they started the game and what seemed like a broader view of the game has become more narrow and self-focused, as evidenced by the post pretty much above me

[quiet]

I have to think he is either blind or stupid and judging by his posting styles he's very competent.

I just disagree with this. I think Illwei is plenty competent as a player/can think about the game, but doesn't research/read back deep into the thread before they post. At least not closely. As in (and this is not shade! I've been way over-attentive) they are not putting in a ton of effort yet.
Evidence of this is when they were trying to remember what they had previously posted.

Spoiler:

Which in my first readthrough I saw as attempts from unwnd as them trying to see how people were thinking/making them (them in this case being me) commit instead of being all wishy washy as I am =P

Reading through them again...Man, I hate having my reads list be 50 shades of Null. anyways-

Okay actually in reading over my notes I don't have specific posts that felt village, it was just you asking your questions, which I felt...well, now looking at it I like a lot more than how I saw unwnd originally.

Ignoring this, I immediately dislike unwnd and safebet a tad for having full reads, despite there not really much going on. Safebet was feeling pressured it seems, and unwnd was doing it under the pretense of teaching, so...okay...

I think that probably explains it a bit better than what I did before. Wait, did I answer this before?

Oh, yeah I did. and...I said Quiet? was more suspicious? huh. I don't know how... Well, maybe before I was looking at everything quiet was saying as if they had already flipped scum? ...huh. Well, that's, the above bit, my answer to...uh...let me find...it..

If we are to think that the slip is a scumplay, then we should also probably assume all of this was scumplay. I just don't buy that. Maybe it just super worked on me, but I don't credit that. People are universally jumping all over this, too.

[BBmolla]

I think a two ringer scumteam seems more likely than a 2 newbie scumteam

Why

Lunar flip tells me about PETA cause there are a lot of interactions there and I don’t want to elim peta today

[BBmolla]

Fuck it

VOTE: LunarMartian

Hammered, fuck the claim. See y’all tomorrow.

[quiet]

Why

No ringer scumteam:
can remove all combos with me.
I townread Illwei (and even if I didn't, as noted in my previous post, {Illwei Lunar} makes zero sense, so it's just {Illwei, Turtle}.
That leaves exactly {Turtle, Lunar}. So one strong possibility, one possibility I hate.

Two ringer scumteam:
less likely to be sussed day1, way more permutations that work.
Like, at least 6 permutations that work.
Also, much scarier. I think a two ringer scumteam with miselim is a LOT more likely to be a loss than a two newbie scumteam with a miselim.

One ringer, one newbie scumteam:
need to consider more. Consider this decently likely, but...more for some newbies than for others. For example, if Illwei is scum, and did the whole slip act as a play, then either they're not talking and ringer scumpartner is mad af in the private thread, or the other scum didn't know any better, or is not talking at all. That makes {Illwei, Ringer} worlds hard for me to buy.

Ty for the explanation on PETA, though I don't see the information you seem to hiding in those interactions. Look forward to an explanation tmmrw with a flip.