Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[quiet]

Wait, that is absolutly not a hammer. Peta unvoted. unwin changed their vote.

I am
my goddamn spider senses are tingling now. What the hell was that? If this was supposed to be a play to get reactions out of other people, I'm sorry, but I'm not biting on that. What just happened????

[Lunar Martian]

Why are people not voting BB?

[quiet]

Why are people not voting BB?

Cause BB claimed a role.

Lunar, if you have a role, you need to claim it rn.

[petapan]

he doesn't need to claim it, i'm not hammering him now and especially not before he gets a chance to post more

Wait, that is absolutly not a hammer. Peta unvoted. unwin changed their vote.

I am
my goddamn spider senses are tingling now. What the hell was that? If this was supposed to be a play to get reactions out of other people, I'm sorry, but I'm not biting on that. What just happened????

that was absolutely a reaction test, very likely a town move from him. i don't think it got anything useful but can't fault him for trying. i wanted to post earlier but didn't want to blow up his spot.

[petapan]

I think a two ringer scumteam seems more likely than a 2 newbie scumteam

Why

Lunar flip tells me about PETA cause there are a lot of interactions there and I don’t want to elim peta today

how does lunar's flip tell you anything whatsoever about my alignment?

Why

No ringer scumteam:
can remove all combos with me.
I townread Illwei (and even if I didn't, as noted in my previous post, {Illwei Lunar} makes zero sense, so it's just {Illwei, Turtle}.
That leaves exactly {Turtle, Lunar}. So one strong possibility, one possibility I hate.

Two ringer scumteam:
less likely to be sussed day1, way more permutations that work.
Like, at least 6 permutations that work.
Also, much scarier. I think a two ringer scumteam with miselim is a LOT more likely to be a loss than a two newbie scumteam with a miselim.

One ringer, one newbie scumteam:
need to consider more. Consider this decently likely, but...more for some newbies than for others. For example, if Illwei is scum, and did the whole slip act as a play, then either they're not talking and ringer scumpartner is mad af in the private thread, or the other scum didn't know any better, or is not talking at all. That makes {Illwei, Ringer} worlds hard for me to buy.

Ty for the explanation on PETA, though I don't see the information you seem to hiding in those interactions. Look forward to an explanation tmmrw with a flip.

you're going to have to clarify who you're seeing as a ringer and a newbie ere since it's clear you're not using the SE divide as a line. also, if you suspect one of the experienced players is scum, why is your attention not directed at us?

[Illwei]

The hesitance as pointed out by them asking if they vote someone does not read to me like a naturalistic townie who is worried about making the wrong choice, rather a potential scum who is trying to not endanger themselves by not making too many hasty decisions

Can you explain what this means pretty please and thank you

Sorry yes to answer whoever else said it, I start to get a tad overwhelmed when the page count starts to get higher. not always, but people's insistence on making 10 small posts that could have all been included in the same post is something that kinda stresses me out. Are wallposts frowned upon here?

It's also not just the pagecount, but that there's only so much you can do in a cycle before something bad happens. before you start repeating yourself and all the arguments become meaningless.
Just my opinion. We have 20 pages into D1 and that's a pretty manageable page count for me, but also most of those pages are like, 90% a single person with 20 posts in a row.

[unwnd]

I would like to understand where your reads are first and foremost Illwei?

[quiet]

you're going to have to clarify who you're seeing as a ringer and a newbie ere since it's clear you're not using the SE divide as a line. also, if you suspect one of the experienced players is scum, why is your attention not directed at us?

Newbie:
Illwei, quiet, lunar, turtle

Ringer:
Mikul, unwnd, peta, BB, safebet

My attention def focused on some of you; I just don't have good reads yet. Apparently, neither does anyone else. People that it seems like could be elimmed today so far are Lunar, then Turtle, then Illwei or me, in that order of likelihood. BB was there for a moment, but the claim got him out.

Interesting that all four of us newbies are on the chopping block. Seems like everyone is not ready to give scum ringer reads with enough confidence to elim. BB is relying on a lunar elim to give a read on peta; some other people have mentioned unwnd or safebet or a few others, but nothing they want to vote today. It feels like theres a pattern though for everyone else, something valuable. I took a shot at using that info when I gave my Lunar pair possibilities above.

Well, there's one exception. Mikul is willing to dayshoot me and elim Illwei or unwnd, so that's one person willing to vote a ringer today.

Any of the ringers willing to vote a ringer tonight? Or are we getting rid of a newbie no matter what today

[safebet222]

I can post more thorough thoughts when I am off of mobile but unless something with Lunar changes dramatically today, I still want to flip them and sort out everything else tomorrow.

[Illwei]

Okay after thinking it over

Scum:
Lunar, unwnd

Unwnd has never been on the Lunar train, right? (ok I'm not going to be surprised if I'm just completely wrong about this.) and then the moment Mikul speaks his doubts about me, the immediate reaction from unwnd is to vote me, seemingly trying to get other people onto me as well. that's the only connection to lunar here.

[unwnd]

I have voted Lunar and I'm not sure where you missed that

[petapan]

Interesting that all four of us newbies are on the chopping block. Seems like everyone is not ready to give scum ringer reads with enough confidence to elim. BB is relying on a lunar elim to give a read on peta; some other people have mentioned unwnd or safebet or a few others, but nothing they want to vote today. It feels like theres a pattern though for everyone else, something valuable. I took a shot at using that info when I gave my Lunar pair possibilities above.

frankly that tends to happen because experienced players are more charismatic. that was certainly a fear for me about the lunar wagon, given that he was a day 1 elimination in his other game. but i feel like all of mikul/safebet/unwnd/bbmolla have done at least some things that look town to me.

[safebet222]

Ok.. so my 5-yr old finished watching Ryan's Toy Review sooner than I thought.

I understand the desire to go after Illwei for his 3-scum post, but I just think its too likely to be a simple mistake. The argument unwnd made in post 495 makes more sense to me as a scum!illwei argument, together with the fact that he has been on one vote the entire day... I just think it might be easier to sort him after we have more information from a flip.

I think I mentioned that Quiet has gone down in my list as a townread. There is plenty I don't like about his tone and some of his line of questioning and word phrasing that I haven't liked at all, especially since the BB claim. But my mind just goes back to post 258:

a totally unrelated question
unwnd, found your thread on town meta/hyperposting.

Thought it was interesting, and seems to inform maybe the reason you joined this game?

Has my posting been hyperposting?

I’ve been super jazzed to play, so I’ve been jumping in a lot, but reading over your thread plus some of the responses (safebet, lunar, mr turtle) talking about the challenges of catching up, maybe you are on to something.

I’m curious if you think I should be sitting back more. Open to anyone else’s thoughts on that too, just found it interesting.

I also recognize the irony of posting to ask if I’m posting too much.

Deosn't a scum!quiet just keep that to himself and test the site meta to get townread? I think so...

Turtle, like I said before is just a policy elim in my mind,

Lunar, on the other hand, is almost like all the bad parts put together, low poster, only a singular vote outside RVS, which he is still pushing and like 3 town reads... almost like he's placed his vote on one guy and is going to ride it to avoid reading the other half of the field. Perhaps he null reads half the field, too.

@Lunar... What are your thoughts on peta, turtle, mikul and myself? Why have you not given your reads on us?

[safebet222]

Hard for me to speculate next steps. I'd have been focusing a lot more today on making sure my voting patterns/suses/etc looked correct for tomorrow

; that's something that right now I havn't thought about whatsoever, but day2 I'm sure I'll be doing a lot of research on to try and determine what info we got from day1's votes and the flip.

I don't like this at all... This is pretty scummy imo.

[safebet222]

Otherwise i'll give my thoughts next day cycle which also works for me, unless you're the one who thinks something bad will happen off of Lunar's death.

Something i think is off about quiet, is they talk about their intent to hammer Lunar, but tag me in a way that makes me feel like they know Lunar is going to flip village, and are trying to push the blame off of them once the flip happens.

@peta what about me feels unnatural?

specifically the bit quiet quoted where with two different wagons you made a post that was to the effect of "it's...so tempting...to put it at E-1..."

TBH... It pings me more that quiet picked that out than ot did that Illwei repeated that thought in 2 different situations.

[safebet222]

Btw... I'm just going through some of the things that pinged me about quiet that I alluded to in my other post.

[petapan]

TBH... It pings me more that quiet picked that out than ot did that Illwei repeated that thought in 2 different situations.

he picked that out as a reason to call him town, though

[safebet222]

he picked that out as a reason to call him town, though

What's the difference? I think the fact that he's tuned into that is questionable.

[quiet]

Spoilertaged a bunch of newbie/ringer world musings, which I started to dislike more and more as I wrote them. Posting anyway because I worked hard on it, spoiler tag because I don't want to waste time. Peta, I have a short response to your comment about experienced players being charismatic there.

Spoiler:

frankly that tends to happen because experienced players are more charismatic. that was certainly a fear for me about the lunar wagon, given that he was a day 1 elimination in his other game.

Doesn't this make it more likely that it's {ringer, ringer} then? As I've previously stated, there's only one combo of {newbie, newbie} that makes sense from my perspective, {lunar, turtle}. If it was {ringer, newbie}, with the exception of maybe {ringer, turtle}, I would think the newbie would be getting a lot of coaching in the maf only thread. I know for sure scumQuiet is asking every single question ever, especially on how to play good, supportive scum, not ever sus them, etc. But none of the newbies are really acting like they have any info support at all, and none of the sussed newbies have been bailed out by anyone or seen any real redirections. For example, I don't credit any {Illwei, ringer} worlds, as I don't think a ringer partner likes or pushes the fake slip play.

Flipping lunar will help clarify a ringer according to BB, though I don't see how; Also, I'm getting concerned that BB is going to get shot tonight, and then whatever lunar/peta thing he's got in his head dies with him. Flipping Turtle takes away some uncertainty, especially as I can credit a lot more {turtle, ringer} worlds...but like safebet said, it's mostly a policy elim, which, okay.

That leaves us with {ringer, ringer}, which is kinda the worst case, since a town ringer gets shot tonight every time, every newbie has at least some sus on them and feels like an easier day2 elim than a ringer would (besides the whole BBMola claim mess, which I've decided to just not think about until tmmrw), and in that world, day3 is real scary.

I guess what I'm getting at is that if we are always elimming a newbie tonight, which newbie elim gives us the most info on ringers? Because if the meta is that ringers are harder to catch and elim, and newbies are easier to catch and elim (but also miselim), then...we have to adjust somehow. I'd much rather have two newScum alive day 3 then two ringerScum day3, and two newbieElims day1 and day2 give no chance and preventing that outcome. I'm thinking here from a risk perspective: risk of losing vs. two ringers with miselims > risk of losing vs two town with miselims, probability of {ringer, ringer} higher than probability of {ringer, newbie}, and we are already flipping a newbie today, so that will cut down even further on the possible {newbie, newbie} and {newbie, ringer} teams.

I've re-read this a couple times, and I'm not super happy with it; The more I go down this whole newbie/ringer chain of thinking, the less I like it. I'm going to post it, cause I don't have the heart to delete it, but it kind of feels like I'm getting off in the weeds here.

he picked that out as a reason to call him town, though

What's the difference? I think the fact that he's tuned into that is questionable.

@safebet, if it changes how you read it at all, my Illwei dive happend after either peta or BB asked me why I townread Illwei so hard. At the time, it was pretty much a gut read, but I felt pretty strongly about it; I took the chance to do an iso on Illwei and try to justify my read with evidence.

I didn't catch the double E-1 routine thing initially. I used it as an example of Illwei seeming relaxed, posting casually, not thinking too hard about their posts, which I don't think scum!Illwei does. If you are wondering how I got tuned into it, it's because it was basically handed to me as a HW assignment.

[safebet222]

Noted, quiet.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-13

Considered one of the highest achievements in Korean fiction,

The Nine Cloud Dream

poses the question: Will the life we dream of truly make us happy? Written in 17th-century Korea, this classic novel’s story is about a young monk living on a sacred Lotus Peak in China, who succumbs to the temptation of eight fairy maidens. For doubting his master’s Buddhist teachings, the monk is forced to endure a strange punishment: reincarnation as the most ideal of men.

His new life is full of material, martial, and sensual accomplishments beyond his wildest dreams. He encounters the eight fairies in human form, each one furthering his path towards understanding the fleeting value of his good fortune. As his successes grow, he comes closer and closer to finally comprehending the fundamental truths of the Buddha’s teachings. The Nine Cloud Dream explores the meaning of a good life and the virtue of living simply with mindfulness.

Lunar Martian

(3): Illwei, safebet222, BBmolla

Mr Turtle

(1): quiet

Illwei

(1): unwnd

quiet

(1): Mikul

BBmolla

(1): Lunar Martian

Not Voting

(2): petapan, Mr Turtle

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: December 27, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2020-12-27 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[petapan]

Spoilertaged a bunch of newbie/ringer world musings, which I started to dislike more and more as I wrote them. Posting anyway because I worked hard on it, spoiler tag because I don't want to waste time. Peta, I have a short response to your comment about experienced players being charismatic there.

Spoiler:

frankly that tends to happen because experienced players are more charismatic. that was certainly a fear for me about the lunar wagon, given that he was a day 1 elimination in his other game.

Doesn't this make it more likely that it's {ringer, ringer} then? As I've previously stated, there's only one combo of {newbie, newbie} that makes sense from my perspective, {lunar, turtle}. If it was {ringer, newbie}, with the exception of maybe {ringer, turtle}, I would think the newbie would be getting a lot of coaching in the maf only thread. I know for sure scumQuiet is asking every single question ever, especially on how to play good, supportive scum, not ever sus them, etc. But none of the newbies are really acting like they have any info support at all, and none of the sussed newbies have been bailed out by anyone or seen any real redirections. For example, I don't credit any {Illwei, ringer} worlds, as I don't think a ringer partner likes or pushes the fake slip play.

Flipping lunar will help clarify a ringer according to BB, though I don't see how; Also, I'm getting concerned that BB is going to get shot tonight, and then whatever lunar/peta thing he's got in his head dies with him. Flipping Turtle takes away some uncertainty, especially as I can credit a lot more {turtle, ringer} worlds...but like safebet said, it's mostly a policy elim, which, okay.

That leaves us with {ringer, ringer}, which is kinda the worst case, since a town ringer gets shot tonight every time, every newbie has at least some sus on them and feels like an easier day2 elim than a ringer would (besides the whole BBMola claim mess, which I've decided to just not think about until tmmrw), and in that world, day3 is real scary.

I guess what I'm getting at is that if we are always elimming a newbie tonight, which newbie elim gives us the most info on ringers? Because if the meta is that ringers are harder to catch and elim, and newbies are easier to catch and elim (but also miselim), then...we have to adjust somehow. I'd much rather have two newScum alive day 3 then two ringerScum day3, and two newbieElims day1 and day2 give no chance and preventing that outcome. I'm thinking here from a risk perspective: risk of losing vs. two ringers with miselims > risk of losing vs two town with miselims, probability of {ringer, ringer} higher than probability of {ringer, newbie}, and we are already flipping a newbie today, so that will cut down even further on the possible {newbie, newbie} and {newbie, ringer} teams.

I've re-read this a couple times, and I'm not super happy with it; The more I go down this whole newbie/ringer chain of thinking, the less I like it. I'm going to post it, cause I don't have the heart to delete it, but it kind of feels like I'm getting off in the weeds here.

i think you're overestimiating the ability of a mikul or a safebet to coach their partner, or the receptiveness a lunar martian or mr turtle would have to coaching. it's not always that easy, you can give all the pointers you want but if someone is frozen stiff with no idea what to post, nothing that's said to them in the PT will have much of an effect.

but, regardless, if you think logic points to an experienced player being scum, make your suspicion heard.

[petapan]

VOTE: illwei

it's not just the 'slip' but i'd be lying if that wasn't part of my thinking. unwnd probably put it in better words than i can.

[Illwei]

I'm definitely getting burnt out, and I would be lying if I said I'm not tempted to sit here and let myself get killed. I don't really want to gamethrow, and I feel like that would qualify.

I really didn't think that my doubts about Lunar and bad reading skills would suddenly make me 10x scummier though lol.
This feels like I'm picking up to save Lunar. I need to think more about that though.

[BBmolla]

UNVOTE: