Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[Lunar Martian]

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.

two options:

1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.

Which is the simplest, I ask?

I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.

[unwnd]

Ringer as quiet puts it probably goes like

Myself > BBMolla > Safebet > Peta

In terms of confidence of read. I think Peta is just comfortably town as long as the thread maintains the read I have on it. If things change, then I'll have to rethink my pool. I highly suggest this to others intead of being convinced you need to find the scumteam on D1. I would like to enforce healthy mindset and not over-extending.

--

Broken record but don't worry about being wrong

. Too many people take stock in what is coined as herosolves. Herosolving is basically telling yourself 'I will find all the scum on D(#)' and then asserting yourself by taking thread control. You start lining things up in your head and get in associative tells far far too early. Scum are just as awkward and unsure as you are in most cases, and even if you happen to be right? You just painted a huge target on your back and almost all herosolves have a certain suspension of disbelief where you just have to go off the merit of the player making the solve. I don't believe in this, and I don't think that's what makes good players.

[unwnd]

It's complete armchair but here's what I look for in good players, and even then that term is pretty loose. I'm not really a fan of going 'this player sucks' and 'this player is good' because it invalidates people in such a strange way. Here is my own biased take on what

I

personally take away as good (or in this case, who I would be likely to trust more.)

1) Ability to interpret their own thoughts in concise/clear ways
2) Flexibility and accountability (Willing to undergo changes to behavior for benefit of town, Willing to accept mistakes)
3) Not overbearing and willing to step back and let others have a voice

I hold myself to the same standard each time I play this game. Right now Peta is playing at a base level what used to be deemed as pro-town. This is an antiquated phrase that I'm pretty sure not many people use anymore. Rambling aside, I think it's within his range to do this however, but I don't think me sitting here and tinfoiling would do any good.

[Mikul]

Daily check in : Wanted to out this out because I'm trying to skim even if I can't post much. The second turtle is not under pressure, he's back to being a afk slot

[Mikul]

Also tbh. The more long winded people are, the more they are scum read. Been playing since 2010 and some of the best players I've seen have issues conveying their points because the more they type and the harder the try. The more people think they are scum.

[Mikul]

I think we all play mafia for the same reasons. There is a level of mental satiation from it. Catching scum or seeing flips endgame and having the "gotcha" moment.

The more elaborate the catch, the more satiated you feel. I've just always been of the mind that more is less and less is more.

[fferyllt]

Mr Turtle has been prodded.

[Mikul]

Was thinking about this when I was out eating. I'm pretty sure unwnd is following my vote around. Or he's been on the same people I have at the same time. Not for the same reasons but just something to note

[Illwei]

I feel more confident in my Lunar vote now that he's parroting unwnd about me.

[unwnd]

Hey guys. My living situation is uncertain (Our lease is up) and I need some time to figure out the next course of action in my life. So I'd like to take a V/LA as Mafia will just be an added stress to me. Thanks.

[safebet222]

I completely agree with unwnd about the course this gamenhas taken over the last 36-48 hours. Gamesolving on D1 is almost never fruitful.

Unwnd...I hope you figure out whats going on soon. If I could offer some advice, if you can control it, this time around try not to have a lease that ends on Jan. 1. Makes life's curveballs much easier to handle.

As far as where I stand, I am with BB... I thought Lunar was a fine flip. We'll have to see whats up with Turtle but a policy flip would be an okay choice. The three folks I have no interest in flipping are peta, mikul and obviously BB. The rest are up for debate.

@quiet, can we talk about who you'd like to flip as opposed to why illwei is town? That'd help... It gets lost in your wall posts.

With the holiday coming, I'll soon be V/LA as well. I'd like to cut the circular conversations and consolidate so we can get possible cc's out there before deadline looms.

[quiet]

@safe Yeah, sorry, replying on phone while traveling so forgive typos.

I am keeping my vote on Turtle, but would vote Lunar if we go that way instead. I don’t know how to play with silence, and im not excited about trying to read that slot. No one else I feel great voting today, but I mentioned unwnd as someone I’d consider tmmrw, and then ofc bb’s claim stuff is going to happen, I think there’s just a lot more info then.

I will never be voting Ill, bb, myself, Mikul today.
Don’t have any confidence in my reads on safe or peta.

I’m going to focus on being more productive with what I put in the thread. I know unwnd’s comments aren’t directed necessarily, but I agree with them, and havnt been doing it. I think I just like musing about things, and I’m overexcited by that aspect of it. I don’t think that I ever solve the game today.

[quiet]

Possible votes, as I count them:

Lunar Martian (5.5+): Illwei, safebet222, quiet, turtle, bb I think, peta if they don’t deliver..anyone else?
Mr Turtle (3+): quiet, safe, Illwei <—— I think more might be willing, but this is policy vote
Illwei (3): unwnd, petapan, Mikul
unwnd (2.5): Mikul, Illwei, sorta me but prob not
quiet (1+): Mikul, plus probably at least one other person;
peta (1): just Bb here I think

Mikul, safe, bb never get voted today.

Let me know if I miscategorized anyone, I only glanced over the last few pages. If people update who they are willing to vote, I’ll update this.


Quiet: Lunar, Turtle
Mikul: Quiet, Illwei, unwnd
Safe: Lunar, Turtle
Unwnd: Illwei,
Bb: peta, lunar...but also lots of people?

[quiet]

Ignore the bottom thing, sorry, that was a previous count and the phone UI isn’t great.

[safebet222]

Spoiler:

I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.

If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.

two options:

1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.

Which is the simplest, I ask?

I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.

How does it change your reads? Care to contribute?

[BBmolla]

Id rather turtle get replaced

Lunar I think is scum at this point

[BBmolla]

Well I’d rather turtle just post a whole lot more but if that’s not an option a replacement would be great lol

[safebet222]

Id rather turtle get replaced

Lunar I think is scum at this point

Well, you see where my vote is at...

[petapan]

i'll give lunar a day as promised but the popin does not inspire confidence

[petapan]

Right now Peta is playing at a base level what used to be deemed as pro-town. This is an antiquated phrase that I'm pretty sure not many people use anymore. Rambling aside, I think it's within his range to do this however, but I don't think me sitting here and tinfoiling would do any good.

reading me as town for being protown is definitely the worst reason to townread me yet

Also tbh. The more long winded people are, the more they are scum read. Been playing since 2010 and some of the best players I've seen have issues conveying their points because the more they type and the harder the try. The more people think they are scum.

walls used to be more commonplace here and i went against the grain by mostly posting short one-liner bursts. now they've gone out of style and people spam too much. i can't force myself to fit the wallposting style, though. i find myself at a loss for words.


actually find myself having doubt about turtle again looking over his posts. will likely be replaced though and impossible to get traction there. i find myself making idle conversation for the sake of having something to say. i could go back over and try to put more concrete words to my feelings on illwei but i'm not sure i really want to push hard there when we have 2 nothing slots in the game.

[quiet]

If I were turtle or lunar, I think I’d be pretty intimidated by the prospect of jumping in now. I mean lunar has a pretty rough job now, after promising that today they’d come back and start posting more, to step in and...well, basically defend against what is looking like a pretty likely vote.

I don’t know if there’s really anything that could make it easier; I guess I just want to say that Lunar (and turtle), I’m excited to hear pretty much anything from you both, and if anyone in the thread has some ideas of where they could start to make it a little less overwhelming, it would be nice to post that. I don’t have any good specific questions for them.

[quiet]

Lunar, maybe starting by giving your top three town and top three scum would be nice.

[safebet222]

@mod... I will be V/LA for the next 48 hours.

Have a very Merry Christmas everyone. See you all on Saturday.

[fferyllt]

Mr Turtle has requested replacement. Searching...

[fferyllt]

allez