Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[unwnd]

EoD was a bit of a crapshoot, was not confident in Norfolk flipping scum at all but really bought into what Quiet was doing

[petapan]

EoD was a bit of a crapshoot, was not confident in Norfolk flipping scum at all but really bought into what Quiet was doing

strongly doubt quiet was being bussed which would mean his only possible teammates are you and and illwei, first i don't see at all because he'd be more self-conscious about his opening with regard to you, second is a maybe but there's a lot of people i could see theoretically teamed with illwei so i don't want to flip quiet. it's possible it was t/t, but the assumption of quiet-town means i'm likely wrong on someone i was townreading

[unwnd]

I think Safebet would probably be the safebet (lol) for me because I don't think the game-state has prominently changed overnight. I still think Quiet/Mikul were likely town arguing semnatics with one another and at this current point I'm not willing to suggest the idea of limming there. Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?

[quiet]

I was pretty saddened about the self-hammer. I didn’t expect it, and I think it took away some important info. Also, just feels bad. I pushed so hard because I knew I wasn’t scum, and I really genuinely didn’t like the Folks reads on me. Mikul is going to have a field day.

Understand not pushing lunar today. P sure they have to claim roleblocked into infinity yep? So pretty much a coin toss between {cop, doc} and lunar safe, or {cop, town} and lunar scum, and scum lunar with ringer partner knows to claim that from scum roles. So no red flips today, we sort that out tmmrw is the plan? Or am I missing something.

How to scum act at the end of yesterday if they know both Norfolk and I are town?

Going to do some reading and thinking.

[quiet]

Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?

I’m thinking some of the earlier wagons might have better info-such as the lunar wagon, the BB half wagon maybe. The discussion during the 4-4 and 3-4 state on me and Norfolk was also interesting. I want to think about who was calling attention to themselves and who was trying not to be responsible, but I wonder how AI that is. I also want to say something like I think the people who were talking a lot at the end there get townpinged by me for it, but I feel like that’s in some people’s scumrange.

[petapan]

I think Safebet would probably be the safebet (lol) for me because I don't think the game-state has prominently changed overnight. I still think Quiet/Mikul were likely town arguing semnatics with one another and at this current point I'm not willing to suggest the idea of limming there. Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?

potentially, yes. i've some ideas.

I was pretty saddened about the self-hammer. I didn’t expect it, and I think it took away some important info. Also, just feels bad. I pushed so hard because I knew I wasn’t scum, and I really genuinely didn’t like the Folks reads on me. Mikul is going to have a field day.

Understand not pushing lunar today. P sure they have to claim roleblocked into infinity yep? So pretty much a coin toss between {cop, doc} and lunar safe, or {cop, town} and lunar scum, and scum lunar with ringer partner knows to claim that from scum roles. So no red flips today, we sort that out tmmrw is the plan? Or am I missing something.

How to scum act at the end of yesterday if they know both Norfolk and I are town?

Going to do some reading and thinking.

ordinarily self-hammers aren't really a good thing, but as we were approaching deadline and his slot was likely to be heavily suspected. in general not selfhammering is preferable

ultimately have to evaluate lunar like any other player, but i want to rethink things today rather than just slide back onto him because i think he's likely a player who gets falsely suspected a lot and he probably just gets killed overnight. worth examining who his potential partners are if he is a fakeclaiming goon, but not really a preferred vote.

[quiet]

i think he's likely a player who gets falsely suspected a lot and he probably just gets killed overnight

I agree with not voting them today, but I don’t think they get killed a lot.

The rb can just rb them every night, and force town to decide. The doc just becomes another vanilla town that can’t do anything-which neatly masks the goon play.

[unwnd]

Understand not pushing lunar today. P sure they have to claim roleblocked into infinity yep? So pretty much a coin toss between {cop, doc} and lunar safe, or {cop, town} and lunar scum, and scum lunar with ringer partner knows to claim that from scum roles. So no red flips today, we sort that out tmmrw is the plan? Or am I missing something.

I agree with this and also agree with just leaving Lunar alone. I find myself in a headspace where I want to revisit some thoughts but also consider new perspectives so it may take me a minute before I get there

[petapan]

i think he's likely a player who gets falsely suspected a lot and he probably just gets killed overnight

I agree with not voting them today, but I don’t think they get killed a lot.

The rb can just rb them every night, and force town to decide. The doc just becomes another vanilla town that can’t do anything-which neatly masks the goon play.

i didn't want to mention that because i was hoping the mafia team wouldn't think of that; as it is his continued existence in this game is an extreme liability, lol

[quiet]

From my perspective, I think I need to scumhunt within peta, safe, unwnd. Illwei maybe, but I think I’d like to focus on the first three. Mikul is clear in my eyes.

@peta oof, my bad, lie more, got it.

[fferyllt]

Illwei has requested replacement. Searching...

[Mikul]

VOTE: quiet

this has basically converted to a full vanilla, no result game. So staying with my reads as nothing has changed to make me second guess them. Not killing him was a mistake and I blame norfolk

[Mikul]

2 paths in this game

cop doc, and lunar is town lock

-------

just a cop and mafia has goons and lunar is fake claiming. For lunar to fake claim, he would have to be 100 percent sure bbmola was actually a cop to fake claim that. He would know we are in the far right column and may be able to poe down that molla was softing cop and was aware that doctor would be a safe claim because mafia had just goons in the pm. Meaning if molla was cop, there are no other power roles


occams razor.

If the latter is true, we just eat the loss because I don't see a world where I lynch him

[Mikul]

this is also why yolo claiming on dp1 is dumb af

[quiet]

I’ll note that Lunar was E-1 when they claimed it, people were telling them to claim, and especially with the known columns, and bb’s pretty heads up soft cop claim, there’s not much to lose. They were 100% getting elimmed otherwise. I’m not going to push it today, but I think saying you’d eat the loss and never consider it is going a little far imo.

[Mikul]

I'm not entertaining the idea that mafia had the balls to read bb so well that they 100 percent sure knew he was claiming cop. Knew that they had no roles on the mafia team, then break down that if bb is a cop, town has no other pr. So they could claim doctor pretty easily.

If we lose off that, it teaches town to not stupidly just yolo claim prs. Because it's 99x easier to believe that there is a doc and roleblocker .

[safebet222]

My first thought is that I kind of agree with BB that someone is scum on Norfolk's wagon since he flipped green... post 767 and that Illwei's reasoning for voting Norfolk is weird. That slot is upsetting to me...

@peta: Can you explain why you think it unlikely that scum partners buss D1? Also, is there any positive to flipping Lunar, even if he flips town doc? Cause I think there's a better than 1 in 6 shot FMPOV he flips red.

I have to reconsider my quiet read. At the least, if he is scum, I don't think he is partnered with an experienced player.

Mikul... I think you are just way off on that Occam's Razor thing. I think it's obvious why if we are in a goon/goon setup why they would know exactly what BB was based on what he said. BB just plain f'd up. I was hoping they didn't notice.

Right now looking at illwei slot hard.

[quiet]

More then the occums razor thing, I don’t know why you think it takes so much balls to make the only (informed) claim possible that could save scum. If BB was bluffing, then nothing lost; lunar was already going to get ellimmed. How many other people put BB on cop before the doc claim? Personally, I don’t think his soft claim was all that subtle at all, I thought it was cop or a fake claim entirely, with a lot more weight towards cop.

Out of curiosity, lunar, who did you protect last night?

@safe on the Illwei slot, I’m trying to determine if townIll just doesn’t want to be responsible for hammering. The reasoning was strange, but that uncertainty is strangely...consistent? With how they played?

[quiet]

Is a lunar flip more valuable than flipping me? I’ve been wondering about this for a while from the Mikul/Safe perspective. Like if I flip green, mikul, what does that mean for the rest of your reads?

I think we need to start hunting in the ringers, but if we were to flip one of me, illSlot, or lunar, which gives the most info?

[petapan]

@peta: Can you explain why you think it unlikely that scum partners buss D1? Also, is there any positive to flipping Lunar, even if he flips town doc? Cause I think there's a better than 1 in 6 shot FMPOV he flips red.

depends on the situation, but i wouldn't expect them to if they didn't have to, and none of the people who voted quiet looks like a bus vote, really. why is lunar likely to flip red in your opinion?

[safebet222]

Yeah... that is exactly what I would expect newbscum to feel, afraid to hammer.

[safebet222]

@peta: Can you explain why you think it unlikely that scum partners buss D1? Also, is there any positive to flipping Lunar, even if he flips town doc? Cause I think there's a better than 1 in 6 shot FMPOV he flips red.

depends on the situation, but i wouldn't expect them to if they didn't have to, and none of the people who voted quiet looks like a bus vote, really. why is lunar likely to flip red in your opinion?

Not very likely... just more likely than a random shot. More than 1 in 6 and less than 1 in 2. I ask because one the one hand you say that you say you aren't voting him and then on the other you say his presence complicates things for town. I'm trying to figure out if entertaining a Lunar push is worth it or not and I am not convinced that there is zero value in it.

[petapan]

mostly the problem is just i don't know what lunar is doing, and they've aleady been resistant toward any sort of open communication. but yo do the though exercise for me right now: if lunar is scum, who is their partner? that needs to be answered before a vote there can be considered

what's your read on mikul right now?

[safebet222]

mostly the problem is just i don't know what lunar is doing, and they've aleady been resistant toward any sort of open communication. but yo do the though exercise for me right now: if lunar is scum, who is their partner? that needs to be answered before a vote there can be considered

what's your read on mikul right now?

Mikul could be. He never voted Lunar and despite threatening to, he never really did push him very hard. And then he went back on quiet and used the lunar wagon as a quasi VCA support. Could be construed as a light defense of lunar.

With his opening vote, Mikul has had really only one agenda. Push quiet. That is not a good look.

[safebet222]

But your point is well taken... its hard to find good Lunar partner candidates.