[Mastina spends the first part of D2 suspecting Creature and talking with Ircher about BM a bit, and does not really pitch in much on Bell v. Murder at first.]
In post 2890, mastina wrote:MURDERCAT (I don't really townread MURDERCAT and with a lack of townread and with poe, is reasonable scum candidate)
Dr Easy Bake (is de facto scum)
Creature (I really don't think this is town-Creature)
Where the scumreads probably do have 2-3 scum in them, and the reevaluation slots have the other 1-2.
[Mastina places Murder in her PoE by virtue of him not being a townread and not much more. Bell is just outside her PoE at #5.]
In post 2893, mastina wrote: In post 2890, mastina wrote:Dunnstral, Toogeloo, Spiffeh, Bell, Ircher (reevaluation needed, this spot probably has 1-2 scum in it)
For the record:
I can say that the Bell of this game very much looks identical to the Bell of MBOS10, but I admit lack of familiarity with the nuances of him as a player to be able to tell if he is definitively town here.
Spiffeh I feel has been getting townier over the course of the game, but with at minimum one scum absent from my readslist, that healthy paranoia I have on him needs to be addressed because there's a rather significant risk that he is the scumteam's deepwolf. (Plus, on an unrelated note, going into the wifom-hole, if FL's claim of his first draft being the first four names on the playerlist was in any way remotely close to the truth, if Creature is scum, it lends some credence to the idea that Spiffeh could also be scum, with FL having been unable to draft all four due to the other two being picked as town, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, I feel that going down this rabbit hole is a mistake so I basically am writing this off as possible, but not probable.) Overall I'd still rate him as town, but if we have three scum flipped and can't find the fourth after multiple town deaths, it's worth revisiting on him. He's certainly not a priority-sort today imo so even if it's possible he's scum, I kinda want to townbin him anyway for now, to revisit it down the road if needed.
Ircher I feel is probably town here. I admit lack of familiarity with him, and I realize that I do need to acknowledge he does have several bad takes and that effort does not equal town and that his style of posting does have a lot of information in it with the analysis comparatively lackluster, all things that make it possible he's scum, but I also feel that Ircher was not following an FL script, that Ircher's stances and refusal to play ball with Pooky came from an inherently town point of view and that the indignance behind it did radiate a type of townness I don't think Ircher, even with FL, could fake.
So in terms of the names up here with 1-2 scum in them, I'd rate their townness as:
Ircher > Spiffeh (this and above means "not interested in really sorting today") >>>>>> Bell
>
Dunnstral = Toogaloo (Bell either equal or higher than Toog/Dunn, not quite sure which).
[As we can see, she doesn't have a read on him due to lack of familiarity.]
In post 2896, mastina wrote:It feels like everyone who has played with Noraa is insisting that this is Noraa as town, most of them rather strongly so. And that even the other head has some townreads, too.
Who, with Noraa experience,
isn't
townreading Noraa at all?
I imagine there's some, but as far as I can tell, almost everyone is telling me the same thing, that this is Noraa as town. Some to locktown levels, some to town-but-dampened levels, some to town-but-needs-reassessment levels, but almost all saying town.
Am I wrong?
In post 2900, mastina wrote: I'll be honest, I didn't count MURDERCAT as part of the town because, see also: scumreading MURDERCAT.
I didn't even open the spoiler on it to so much as skim.
Neutral with a side of town; nothing has struck me as scummy in it, but it's not bleeding town, but does loosely feel town.
[Funny little bit where Mastina observes that everyone with experience with Noraa townreads her -- but doesn't include Murdercat due to him being in her scum. I like that]
In post 2903, mastina wrote:Okay read the case.
This is not something I have any way of judging.
...
SO.
For the case.
I can give no judgement on tone, but on the parts of the game that are actually things I can assess: this case feels very wrong, very narrow-minded, very manipulative, very specific, and not accurate at all.
Does that mean it's wrong? I'm not a Noraa guru, heck if I know.
But I can tell you as someone who doesn't know Noraa, that the case on her does look like it's not valid.
[Mastina takes the time to review Murdercatto's case on Polarbears here. I agree with the conclusion she reached that the case was off. I also came to the conclusion that Murdercat was more likely town for it because I felt it was a genuine case -- I see why he thought it was real. I dont think mastina has any comments for how it reflects on Murdercat's alignment, although she might have thought it was cherry-picked intentionally.]
In post 3238, mastina wrote:pichu's case I read. I don't find it compelling, but I also don't find it wrong in the same way I did MURDERCAT's case on Polar Bears Express.
...
The rest of the case doesn't really resonate with me much at all, but overall?
Conclusion: lukewarm with an emphasis on 'warm'; Bell was among the slots I was townreading that I needed to reassess and judge if they are scum. The case doesn't hard-sell me on Bell being lockscum, but it does a fairly good job at showing the very real plausibility if not probability of Bell being scum by demonstrating the actions that're more likely to come from scum than town, a viewpoint I do find myself overall agreeing with, albeit with the caveat that I do feel the need to research before sheeping it wholly and unconditionally.
In other words:
Would vote.
I like my Creature vote more right now, but if I was seriously asked to genuinely join the Bell wagon, I probably would.
[Mastina will also review pichu's case on Bell. She found it plausible and worthy of a vote, but not as good as Creature.]
[So far, I would say it's very believable for mastina to reject Murdercat's case and give pichu's case a "plausible" as either alignment. I felt decently the same way. However as scum i think you'd do the same thing.. overall, though, i don't have any issues so far as I think it's pretty believable to vote Creature over Bell.]
In post 3241, mastina wrote:If MURDERCAT is in fact town?
Actually quite likely! Creature + Bell + Dunn + DEB would be an incredibly likely combo, with the other one being Creature + Bell + Toog + DEB (or Creature + Bell + Spiffeh + DEB but as mentioned I wanna table Spiffeh-scum thoughts until three scum are dead, ideally).
Although I remain unconvinced that MURDERCAT is town.
[Mastina has PoE'd out both Bell and DEB correctly here, with some suspicion on Spiffeh -- this is not terrible. She is saying all of this in the event Murderkitty is town, which she isn't convinced of yet, but whatever]
In post 3246, mastina wrote: In post 3140, Bell wrote:Uh, I'm not gunna engage with Pichu's case on me it's the same forest fire shit and I know exactly what I'd say and what he'd say and do in response to every cherry pick, wrong take, pointed out to him etc.
Hey so like.
Remember how there was a summation of "Noraa as scum does not react well to pressure but does as town", more or less?
Yeah, well.
I am beginning to think that applies better to Bell than it does to Noraa.
I remember Bell got some pressure in MBOS10--and reacted completely differently than Bell is reacting here, similarly under pressure.
There, he had a certain energy and smugness to him; here he's radiating defensiveness.
Soyeah.
Definitely am seeing Bell-scum here now!
[This is mastina's decision on Bell being likely scum. Before this point, she used wording like "If Bell is scum" -- now she's starting to believe. She does this just one hour after calling pichu's case plausible... so it seems she decided to scumread Bell through a reread of sorts. This is very significant, I think, because that means it is very likely something caused her to shift that read as she was reading through -- either it was Bell's defensiveness, or something that made her feel it was time to bus.]
[She had Bell as plausibly scum while reading pichu's case in
2963, and then she decided to call Bell scummy as a reaction to his defensive tone in
3139/
3140. I'm going to read that stretch.]
[Yeah so it's basically Pichu, Ydrasse, Double, and Solstice beating Bell into the ground, and then Bell responding pretty poorly to it. Soyeah, he definitely looked like he was going down there. However i will note that Bell's reaction to pressure was indeed not great looking compared to what i've seen.]
In post 3247, mastina wrote: In post 3156, Bell wrote:You didn't push me. I spent upwards of 8 hours telling you to your face what the truth was and it didn't matter. Call it AtE or what not. But the facts are the facts and you saying you weren't voting me in that at the end of day is just massaging your own play to look better in hindsight as a form of ego protection.
(Ironically. Bell's posts in this stage of the game actually look almost exactly like Noraa's posts in that one Noraa scumgame everyone is talking about which I can't remember the name of off the top of my head. The one which MURDERCAT linked to. Noraa's posts there when defending herself, look like Bell's posts here when defending himself.)
In post 3248, mastina wrote:Considering I've pointed out reasons for Bell being scum that, to my knowledge, are unique to me and things not presented by others before me, it is now me who could use the advice of others in confirming if I am onto something in regards to Bell's defensiveness when under pressure.
(Which is to say I think it's a solid indicator that he's scum.)
I also have thoughts on others, but they're best saved for after a Bell flip if we are flipping Bell today.
I'm debating whether to vote Bell or not; I only have one vote and to me, both Bell and Creature are equally scum.
But overall, I think I do lean towards doing this:
VOTE: Bell.
[Here is the switch]
In post 3560, mastina wrote: In post 3250, Bell wrote:K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.
This is, at the very least: a plausible claim with a plausible target.
I just happen to not believe Bell's town from it.
In my opinion, the claim is utterly dead null. It does nothing to make Bell more scum, but also does nothing to make Bell more town.
So where does that leave me?
Still voting Bell because I'm scumreading him anyway.
[Handwave of the claim]
In post 3584, mastina wrote: Possible, but Bell's still scum regardless. Toogeloo's a good candidate for scum especially if you think Dunn to be town, but I wouldn't say Toogeloo's pop-in here is lock-scum. Possible scum, definitely; surefire scum, nahhhh.
Toogeloo is literally the first vote on the wagon that could be scum.
It is otherwise a quite stellar wagon that is, very clearly, self-evidently, towndriven.
[Honestly I agree, the wagon composition was pristine, i dont know what Murderkitty was talking about. Some sympathy for suspecting Murdercat there.]
In post 3589, mastina wrote:As do I!
I feel like {Bell, Creature} as lockscum is a good start, with {DEB} as a highly likely third and then the fourth being within {MURDERCAT, Dunnstral, Toogeloo}. Two from the latter category if you want to sub DEB out. 6 names for 4 scum is a really good POE solve pool.
[Okay, she didn't have him as the bottom -- notice DEB was her next in line, not Murderkitty. I like that. I can more buy Murder being in that nullish slightly scum tier, maybe. I just thought the Bell interactions spewed town though]
In post 3670, mastina wrote: In post 3658, pichu wrote:guys one of these detective claims is fake
see if you can figure out which one
Hot take: both are.
But if only one were--yes, I'd begrudgingly admit that DEB's is more plausible than Bell's.
[Lul. This is the first and probably only occurrence i can think of where a player finds SvS to be the most likely option. And mastina goes back on it later when I think she could have gotten away with still pushing that without getting DEB killed. If I'm right, i think this progression makes mastina town.]
In post 4337, mastina wrote: In post 3864, Double the Trouble wrote:I'm not too sure about Toogeloo actually, but Alisae said they think they have been town so i'm going with their read on that for now until i get a better feel on them myself.
- Norwee
Toogeloo being town isn't impossible--
It'd require Bell as scum; it'd require Creature as scum; it'd require 2 of {DEB, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral} to be scum.
But it is something I am rather skeptical of overall.
Granted.
I really don't see why MURDERCAT is getting townread. There is precisely one reason I can think of for MURDERCAT to be town, and unless that one reason is the reason others are townreading him, I legit don't get why people think he is town.
DEB I think is scum with Bell, even if that is a stance I realize is a bit of a hard sell to make.
So with Bell as scum and Creature as scum, if my gut-townread on Dunn is right, there is in fact the chance Toogeloo is town, if both DEB and MURDERCAT are scum.
But that's literally the only way I see Toogeloo as town.
[..did Mastina realize Murdercat was a mason? I forgot about this. I think she is implying that here]
In post 4355, mastina wrote:It's called scumhunting; Creature is scum so it's my job to hunt him and pressure him even when voting elsewhere due to hunting elsewhere because there's four scum rather than just one.
You should try it some time*.
(*I am aware MURDERCAT is consistently casing Polar Bear Express as scum. Aside from me disagreeing with the core points of his case, there's also the fact that MURDERCAT doesn't seem to be doing anything aside from the Polar Bear Express case, and my burn here is relating to that lack of diversity in reads and stances backed by reasons. By which, I mean, as far as I can tell, MURDERCAT doesn't have anything resembling a four-man guess for a scumteam. He's pressuring primarily one slot, for reasons that I feel are wrong. Rather than applying pressure in multiple areas with multiple reads.)
[I can buy thinking that Murderkitty is hyper-tunneled and therefore not really accomplishing much, sure.]
In post 4409, mastina wrote:IF Creature were town (he's not), then I'd lockscum
both
Bell and DEB and then look heavily into Toogeloo and MURDERCAT in particular, with a possible side of Dunnstral.
The same goes for IF Bell's town (he's not); I'd lockscum Creature and DEB while looking heavily into Toogeloo and MURDERCAT (albeit less Dunnstral in this one).
I genuinely feel like there is a POE pool of six that, very likely, contains all four scum, with a very high chance:
{Dunnstral, Toogeloo, MURDERCAT, Dr Easy Bake, Bell, Creature}.
Individually, Dunnstral looks the towniest of them.
Individually, Creature looks the scummiest of them.
Individually, Bell looks the second-scummiest of them.
Individually, DEB is DEB and someone that FL could always count on as scum due to DEB and FL being intimately familiar with one another so DEB as town represents a threat to FL whereas DEB as scum is his greatest asset and off of DEB's contributions so far it looks a lot more like he's FL's asset than he is a threat to FL so I think there's a high chance he's scum.
Individually, MURDERCAT's reads and stances the whole game have looked like scum to me and there's literally only one scenario that would make me think otherwise. He's a lower-priority sort for me, however, specifically because given more time, that one scenario will either become debunked or confirmed. If it is debunked, then he's a high priority for being eliminated as an incredibly likely scum candidate; if it is confirmed, then he is someone we'll never eliminate due to him being town. I personally feel that the one scenario for him being town isn't the most likely, but time will tell there.
Individually, Toogeloo's highly null. He's not someone I'm scumreading, but overall, his stances and takes are no longer resonating with me as being town. He's not a high-priority sort because there's four names that I feel are more likely scum than him, with one of them being a low-priority sort, but if MURDERCAT's one scenario of being town is true, then Toogeloo is very highly likely to be scum.
Individually, I do loosely feel like Dunnstral is town, weakly so here, but that is the read that this day phase has been most in flux, and if too many of the names above are town, then by necessity he would need to be scum. But I do genuinely feel that the only way he is scum is if literally two of the above names flip town--which makes him a lower-priority sort, as we should flip names above him before considering eliminating him.
One name flipping town from the above doesn't change this solve.
Two names flipping town from the above still doesn't change the solve.
It'd literally take three of the above names being definitively town for me to consider a different solve right now because I am that confident that these six names contain the solve, pretty conclusively so.
[Mastina does not catch the two scum outside of Bell/DEB here, no, but also no one in the game has. So whatever. The addition of Murdercat into her PoE is was I was worried about, but after reading through, it does not bother me so much.]
In post 4412, mastina wrote: Oh they exist, I literally reviewed a double-doc game, but they're notably rare. I've seen them before. Double doctors beyond the one I reviewed; double trackers happened at least once; double millers has definitely happened; double neighborhoods (as in, two separate neighborhoods of two where all four were town); etc. They exist, they're just rare.
I've normally not been really quoting Ircher posts with points unless I felt a need to argue with them, but I feel particularly compelled to make a positive reaffirmation here, in that:
In post 4014, Ircher wrote:I disagree. Bell's actions post-claim do not seem to be in accordance with what Bell wrote. As they say, "actions speak louder than words." If Bell puts those words in action, maybe I will reconsider.
I agree with this wholeheartedly.
Bell has not put those words into action thusfar.
In post 4014, Ircher wrote:Oksy, here is the actual CC post from DEB. The fact that DEB is giving the benefit of the doubt here is very +town equity for their slot. Scum!DEB benefits very little from such a move (as he's a goner regardless.)
I do have to disagree with this, though. If you assume that Bell is scum and look at DEB giving the benefit of the doubt, it increases the odds that DEB is scum with the whole thing being scum theater where both claims come from scum. I'd therefore say that DEB giving the benefit of the doubt is, overall, null, where you can see the action as town or scum in equal amounts.
It's probably town-equity if Bell is town since town willing to consider the original claim as town is more likely than scum counterclaiming a doomed slot only to then give benefit of the doubt, but if Bell is scum I give no such town equity to DEB.
In post 4014, Ircher wrote: In post 3655, mastina wrote:So my thought on this is that it's probably a classic FL scum-scum claim where both players claiming the role are scum and neither is town.
I think the one hole is that the other has to explain why they are still alive. That doesn't sound like an easy task to me.
I don't see why not.
If only one scum makes the nightkill the entire game, there's only one guilty and a bunch of innocents/false innocents.
A detective not getting a guilty poses no threat to the scum.
And if both detective claims are scum, then they have no reason to claim a guilty, so they can claim innocent results the entire game.
Plus, a detective's innocent isn't a game-long clear, so stacking innocents does no good. If the detective got innocents on eight players before the detective died, those eight innocents don't become conftown. No detective innocent is actually an innocent, not unless all four scum have made a kill (something that we, the town, have no way of knowing).
In post 4004, Dunnstral wrote:And you were keeping your reads close earlier as if you had something special, then came out with the most generic copy pasted reads possible
A reasonably good point.
Yes, actions speak louder than words.
You're saying you're making a readslist; you're not showing a readslist.
[This is mastina arguing against Ircher on the odds of DEB being scum, probably going to look at this more when I read Ircher.]
[Whatever im done reviewing D2 for Mastina now]
