Newbie 2048 | Game Over

Emperor flippyNips · Post Post #75 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:22 pm

In post 71, MiniMegabyte wrote:
In post 65, Emperor flippyNips wrote:Pounding someone d1 page 2 probably hurts town more than running out the clock without getting a kill tho. at least running out the clock we have people's interactions to look at after the NK. Like if the thread is dead then yeah lets just kill someone but not on page 2 when the game has hardly started
No one ever said they were going to hammer and also as I’ve stated it would’ve been good to see their reaction to being out at E-1

and if you want their reaction at P1 then put them at p1. i never said a wagon had to be at the brink of pounding

Enchant · Post Post #76 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:27 pm

It's kinda useless, because i know you voting me out of spite, for last game.

Battle Mage · Post Post #77 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:47 pm

In post 76, Enchant wrote:It's kinda useless, because i know you voting me out of spite, for last game.

you dont think anyone is voting you because they are scum and want to mis-elim you?

Battle Mage · Post Post #78 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:57 pm

In post 69, MiniMegabyte wrote:
In post 67, Emperor flippyNips wrote:also if i was scum why wouldn't i just chill & let it sit there? i wasnt the one who put them at p1 so if they got hammered none of the blame would of gone to me, so why would scum!me unvote? doesn't make sense
You would if it was your buddy...

???

not the most likely conclusion i'd have drawn. the motive for unvoting if Enchant is town is obvious - posting and leaving Enchant at -1 might attract a bit of attention, and it's fairly obvious Emperor Flippynips did not want to get into much detailed engagement this early, and he has only reason done so with the purpose defending himself.

The defence of "if i was scum, i'd have just stayed quiet/lurked with Enchant at -1" doesn't work here, because he had already posted since and not taken the opportunity to unvote despite clearly being aware Enchant was at -1.

that aside, it's not unheard of for scum to try and avoid being on mis-elim wagons/distance from wagons to get towncred. In other words, Emperor-scum doesn't imply Enchant-scum. Although I'm not impressed with the latter so far either.

Battle Mage · Post Post #79 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:00 pm

what does slightly give me the heebyjeebies about Emp and Enchant is that they seem to be ignoring each other on the last couple of pages. Enchant showed up briefly to try and undermine the wagon on Emp (which is exactly what Enchant would do if they were scum with Emp - I don't think they are keen on going solo as scum again, having read the Mafia PT from their last game). Emp has responded to LOTS but nothing really directly to Enchant? Maybe I missed it?

Battle Mage · Post Post #80 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:03 pm

In post 61, Enchant wrote:
In post 53, Battle Mage wrote:
haha it's a newbie game, but I have enough confidence in EVERYONE in this playerlist to elim you here. irrelevant whether I'm a 'leader' or not. I was just the guy here to call you out.
No?

Actually, i like your idea with catching scum on quickvotes, but i don't clearly understand why you started accuse him.

Mafia probably would not care about someone who put on E-1, even more hope someone will do dirty work.

In post 67, Emperor flippyNips wrote:
also if i was scum why wouldn't i just chill & let it sit there? i wasnt the one who put them at p1 so if they got hammered none of the blame would of gone to me, so why would scum!me unvote? doesn't make sense

also this jars a bit. Enchant and Emp making exactly the same defence on behalf of Emp, but not acknowledging each other, and of course the defence doesn't hold water as I noted above.

Dang, maybe it is. maybe it is.

Battle Mage · Post Post #81 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:07 pm

In post 70, Emperor flippyNips wrote:why as scum would i care about someone lolhammering? me unvoting as scum literally just makes my game harder

...the point is precisely that you didn't care. you left Enchant at -1, and only showed up later, after another player had declined the opportunity to hammer, to then unvote. So it appears you were ok with a hammer, but then decided it was too conspicuous and unvoted for towncred.

Unless it is just you and Enchant as Mini suggests. Man it would be sweet if that was the solve. I love an easy game!!

Enchant · Post Post #82 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:17 pm

In post 77, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 76, Enchant wrote:It's kinda useless, because i know you voting me out of spite, for last game.
you dont think anyone is voting you because they are scum and want to mis-elim you?

Nah, too obvious. Maybe scum just jumped in, but i somewhat believe wagon started by townie.

Sirius9121 · Post Post #83 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:14 pm

ggaifam, who failed to pick up their role PM, is being replaced by Maduisha.

Rockhopper · Post Post #84 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:18 pm

I'm about 85% sure BM is town based on meta.

ben dover123 · Post Post #85 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:22 pm

In post 84, Rockhopper wrote:I'm about 85% sure BM is town based on meta.

Yeah this start is towny as a whole too.

Rockhopper · Post Post #86 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:32 pm

In post 28, Emperor flippyNips wrote:
In post 27, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 26, Emperor flippyNips wrote:UNVOTE:

Just in case. That puts them at L2, unless I can’t count
why didnt you do this when they were originally at L-1? you had posted since, and didn't seem that worried? maybe you would've been quite happy with a quickhammer, but had second thoughts later you were too conspicuous.

VOTE: emperor flippynips

easy game
lol nah. i just didn't count cos i was lazy

I'm scumreading this regardless of whether it's a lie or not.

If it is, I would expect scum to be inclined towards instinctively lying about something trivial due to difficulty discerning posts which pose a threat to their survivability from those that don't.
If it isn't, 24 reads as a pretty self conscious post and again something I expect to come more from scum because they prioritize survival over solving the game.

Rockhopper · Post Post #87 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:34 pm

No eluming gets us to a 4v2 melo worst case, which is worse than 3v2 if I'm not wrong

Rockhopper · Post Post #88 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:39 pm

But for now,

VOTE: RLotus

Rockhopper · Post Post #89 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:43 pm

In post 67, Emperor flippyNips wrote:also if i was scum why wouldn't i just chill & let it sit there? i wasnt the one who put them at p1 so if they got hammered none of the blame would of gone to me, so why would scum!me unvote? doesn't make sense

To look towny, maybe? Lolhammers are pretty rare from what I've seen.
Why assume Enchant is town?

Enchant · Post Post #90 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:44 pm

In post 87, Rockhopper wrote:No eluming gets us to a 4v2 melo worst case, which is worse than 3v2 if I'm not wrong

No, if skip two days, it still be 3vs2, but with more checks (if PR survive).

Rockhopper · Post Post #91 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:51 pm

Mini is 90% town

Rockhopper · Post Post #92 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:58 pm

In post 90, Enchant wrote:
In post 87, Rockhopper wrote:No eluming gets us to a 4v2 melo worst case, which is worse than 3v2 if I'm not wrong
No, if skip two days, it still be 3vs2, but with more checks (if PR survive).

The chances of losing PRs from 3NKs and one elimination is the same as from 2NKs and two elims, but the latter gives us a chance to eliminate mafia as well as get info from the PR checks in case they are being hammered.

Rockhopper · Post Post #93 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:59 pm

Compare a pool of players with PRs with and without mafia

Rockhopper · Post Post #94 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:00 pm

In post 92, Rockhopper wrote:
In post 90, Enchant wrote:
In post 87, Rockhopper wrote:No eluming gets us to a 4v2 melo worst case, which is worse than 3v2 if I'm not wrong
No, if skip two days, it still be 3vs2, but with more checks (if PR survive).
The chances of losing PRs from 3NKs and one elimination is greater than 2NKs and two elims, but the latter gives us a chance to eliminate mafia as well as get info from the PR checks in case they are being hammered.

EBWOP

Rockhopper · Post Post #95 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:01 pm

In post 92, Rockhopper wrote:
In post 90, Enchant wrote:
In post 87, Rockhopper wrote:No eluming gets us to a 4v2 melo worst case, which is worse than 3v2 if I'm not wrong
No, if skip two days, it still be 3vs2, but with more checks (if PR survive).
The chances of losing PRs from 3NKs and one elimination is greater than 2NKs and two elims, and the latter gives us a chance to eliminate mafia as well as get info from the PR checks in case they are being hammered.

EBWOP again
sry for spam

Rockhopper · Post Post #96 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:16 pm

In post 83, Sirius9121 wrote:
ggaifam, who failed to pick up their role PM, is being replaced by Maduisha.

Hello Maduisha, how do you do

Rockhopper · Post Post #97 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:16 pm

In post 85, ben dover123 wrote:
In post 84, Rockhopper wrote:I'm about 85% sure BM is town based on meta.
Yeah this start is towny as a whole too.

Mine? Why?

ben dover123 · Post Post #98 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:22 pm

No, I meant BM's

Enchant · Post Post #99 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:34 pm

In post 92, Rockhopper wrote:
No, if skip two days, it still be 3vs2, but with more checks (if PR survive).

The chances of losing PRs from 3NKs and one elimination is the same as from 2NKs and two elims, but the latter gives us a chance to eliminate mafia as well as get info from the PR checks in case they are being hammered.[/quote]

No?

Elumination:
2/9 to kill maf.
1(2) to reveal (kill) PR
5(6)/9 to kill Townie.

After this, mafia have easier time to quess, having chance 2/5 to kill PR.

No Elumination:
0 chance to kill maf.
0 chance to reveal PR.
0 chance to kill townie.

Mafia have 2/6 chance to kill PR this night and 2/5 at second night, as would be in normal.

So, path is almost same, but with more checks.