Obviously I protected BB.In post 792, quiet wrote:More then the occums razor thing, I don’t know why you think it takes so much balls to make the only (informed) claim possible that could save scum. If BB was bluffing, then nothing lost; lunar was already going to get ellimmed. How many other people put BB on cop before the doc claim? Personally, I don’t think his soft claim was all that subtle at all, I thought it was cop or a fake claim entirely, with a lot more weight towards cop.
Out of curiosity, lunar, who did you protect last night?
@safe on the Illwei slot, I’m trying to determine if townIll just doesn’t want to be responsible for hammering. The reasoning was strange, but that uncertainty is strangely...consistent? With how they played?
Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!
Forum rules
- Lunar Martian
- Lunar Martian
-
Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
- Lunar Martian
- Lunar Martian
-
Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
Now that I had to claim I'm much more willing to be open and cooperative. I also am willing to work with some slots more than others. I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.In post 797, petapan wrote:mostly the problem is just i don't know what lunar is doing, and they've aleady been resistant toward any sort of open communication. but yo do the though exercise for me right now: if lunar is scum, who is their partner? that needs to be answered before a vote there can be considered
what's your read on mikul right now?
- fferyllt
- fferyllt
-
fferyllt She
- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 19412
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Left Coast
Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.
On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologist
Idic
@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
I’m also provisionally coming around on the lunar town doc claim. Four minute latency between getting put on E-1 and claiming. ScumLunar now has to have had the claim planned in advance, and be willing to pull the trigger in four minutes or less, while also posting two other messages, which prob rules out checking in with partner. Def possible, just less likely.
If we even go toward lunar, i'm going to quickly become the most uncooperative towny you ever met
For lunar to fake claim all of the following have to be true
1) They were 100 percent sure bb was a pr
2) They were sure he was actually claiming that role, and was not baiting a night kill
3) They were not just sure he was cop, they were sure he was a cop or tracket
The reason we know this is because the fake claim was doctor. Scum could have claimed anything, literally anything in a situation where they were getting lynched if he was going to get lynched anyway. The doctor claims tells us two things (at the point all this happened). He is actually doctor, they correctly identified what colum we were in and made the right call for a role that lined up with a cop claim that they were not even sure was accurate.
It's way more likely lunar is town and the people on his wagon early on, along with the norfolk wagon are scum
For lunar to fake claim all of the following have to be true
1) They were 100 percent sure bb was a pr
2) They were sure he was actually claiming that role, and was not baiting a night kill
3) They were not just sure he was cop, they were sure he was a cop or tracket
The reason we know this is because the fake claim was doctor. Scum could have claimed anything, literally anything in a situation where they were getting lynched if he was going to get lynched anyway. The doctor claims tells us two things (at the point all this happened). He is actually doctor, they correctly identified what colum we were in and made the right call for a role that lined up with a cop claim that they were not even sure was accurate.
It's way more likely lunar is town and the people on his wagon early on, along with the norfolk wagon are scum
" I don’t believe in the gods’ existence. Man is the master of his own fate, not the gods. The gods are man’s creation to give answers that they are too afraid to give themselves."
- Ragnar Lothbrok
- Ragnar Lothbrok
or maybe they were trying to bait the doc to cc since he was dying ...
actually just thought about that
actually just thought about that
" I don’t believe in the gods’ existence. Man is the master of his own fate, not the gods. The gods are man’s creation to give answers that they are too afraid to give themselves."
- Ragnar Lothbrok
- Ragnar Lothbrok
no that woudn't even make sense. They would have to know there is a doc in a game, in a goon goon setup it would actually be claiming doc for preservation
" I don’t believe in the gods’ existence. Man is the master of his own fate, not the gods. The gods are man’s creation to give answers that they are too afraid to give themselves."
- Ragnar Lothbrok
- Ragnar Lothbrok
Dunno, I'm not going on lunar. If BB screwed us with the yolo claim that early and they were actually able to pick up on the fact what he was claiming and were sure enough that he was not baiting or claiming his real role. Then I'm prob stuck
to me it's a lot more likely lunar is actually doctor and we are in col 1
to me it's a lot more likely lunar is actually doctor and we are in col 1
" I don’t believe in the gods’ existence. Man is the master of his own fate, not the gods. The gods are man’s creation to give answers that they are too afraid to give themselves."
- Ragnar Lothbrok
- Ragnar Lothbrok
@saftebet
I set lunar was a gut read and I was willing to vote him, until not long after that they entire wagon went on him without even blinking. Then from there to turtle, and turtle to him, back to turtle
There is a literal sheep wagon that just sticks on diff people and scum are on that wagon.
I set lunar was a gut read and I was willing to vote him, until not long after that they entire wagon went on him without even blinking. Then from there to turtle, and turtle to him, back to turtle
There is a literal sheep wagon that just sticks on diff people and scum are on that wagon.
" I don’t believe in the gods’ existence. Man is the master of his own fate, not the gods. The gods are man’s creation to give answers that they are too afraid to give themselves."
- Ragnar Lothbrok
- Ragnar Lothbrok
If it’s goon, goon, then at WORST, making the doc claim is a 50/50. No way BB is a mason here, nothing from day1 indicated it in any way. So from scum POV, bb softclaim must be fakeclaim, jailor, cop. Didn’t really credit fake claim, and from the way the soft claim went down, I was thinking an investigative role. Mikul, ask yourself if you had any kind of read on BB when Lunar claimed doctor. In that situation, do you have enough info about BBs role to take the 50/50 on E-1? Totally reasonable from my perspective.
I think it’s productive to discuss, but I agree with mikul that that voting in that direction seems bad today.
Something I’m curious about. Unwnd, why do you feel like safebet is a good vote today? Re-read what you said yesterday, but it was fairly brief/mixed in with a lot of other things. I also think I’ve heard safebets name thrown out as a possibility by a few others (e.g. lunar). Curious where the read is coming from.
I think it’s productive to discuss, but I agree with mikul that that voting in that direction seems bad today.
Something I’m curious about. Unwnd, why do you feel like safebet is a good vote today? Re-read what you said yesterday, but it was fairly brief/mixed in with a lot of other things. I also think I’ve heard safebets name thrown out as a possibility by a few others (e.g. lunar). Curious where the read is coming from.
- fferyllt
- fferyllt
-
fferyllt She
- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 19412
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Left Coast
Battle Mage replaces Illwei. Please welcome him!
Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.
On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologist
Idic
- Battle Mage
- Battle Mage
-
Battle Mage
- Jester
- Jester
- Posts: 22231
- Joined: January 10, 2007
bleh, i rolled town.
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
@unwnd
last column is cop , mason, or jk
what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation
last column is cop , mason, or jk
what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation
" I don’t believe in the gods’ existence. Man is the master of his own fate, not the gods. The gods are man’s creation to give answers that they are too afraid to give themselves."
- Ragnar Lothbrok
- Ragnar Lothbrok
- Lunar Martian
- Lunar Martian
-
Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.In post 815, Mikul wrote:@unwnd
last column is cop , mason, or jk
what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation
Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.
- Lunar Martian
- Lunar Martian
-
Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.In post 803, quiet wrote:@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
- Lunar Martian
- Lunar Martian
-
Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
In post 697, unwnd wrote:Also Mikul, I still think you're town and I doubt much changes for me. I could say right now again taking claims as clear then my list looks like this
{BBMolla, Lunar}
{Mikul}
{Peta, Safebet}
{Norfolk, Quiet, Illwei}
I'm down with any of the 3 I listed at the bottom. I do not think those 3 contain the scumteam, but numbers remain on our side atp
In post 739, unwnd wrote:I don't think Quiet is the right vote. This is impressive in it's own right if he's fooling me, but the measures he's taken feel too overbearing for having a potential partner. Quiet would be more hush at E-1 and would be afraid of spewing his mate, but instead he's sitting here andasking what he could do better.That just
Can't be scumplay.
In post 741, unwnd wrote:I'm pretty fooled by you as well peta if you're scum, you're much more animated than what I've observed of your scumgame, wherein you play a bit more calculated in the way you display your emotions, sometimes using them as a crutch to get you out of bad situations
Not sure where it serves you to switch to norfolk like this as scum lol
The list does not really line up with the other posts, despite some of them coming on the same day as the list.In post 777, unwnd wrote:I think Safebet would probably be the safebet (lol) for me because I don't think the game-state has prominently changed overnight. I still think Quiet/Mikul were likely town arguing semnatics with one another and at this current point I'm not willing to suggest the idea of limming there. Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?
- safebet222
- safebet222
-
safebet222
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 513
- Joined: April 29, 2017
- Location: Milwaukee, WI
Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as scum? Something is wrong with your reads, there.In post 817, Lunar Martian wrote:Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.In post 803, quiet wrote:@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
- safebet222
- safebet222
-
safebet222
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 513
- Joined: April 29, 2017
- Location: Milwaukee, WI
Sorry fixed my post.In post 820, safebet222 wrote:Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as town? Something is wrong with your reads, there.In post 817, Lunar Martian wrote:Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.In post 803, quiet wrote:@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
- Battle Mage
- Battle Mage
-
Battle Mage
- Jester
- Jester
- Posts: 22231
- Joined: January 10, 2007
uh...how so?In post 816, Lunar Martian wrote:And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.In post 815, Mikul wrote:@unwnd
last column is cop , mason, or jk
what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation
Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
- safebet222
- safebet222
-
safebet222
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 513
- Joined: April 29, 2017
- Location: Milwaukee, WI
I hate the threat... its almost like you're baiting us to go there. Eliminating a perfectly plausible scenario and just throwing up your hands that you'll take the "L" if it is the case is not very town friendly. I get the point of view of not wanting to push there today... but you have to at least consider it at some point if he doesn't die, right?In post 805, Mikul wrote:If we even go toward lunar, i'm going to quickly become the most uncooperative towny you ever met
For lunar to fake claim all of the following have to be true
1) They were 100 percent sure bb was a pr
2) They were sure he was actually claiming that role, and was not baiting a night kill
3) They were not just sure he was cop, they were sure he was a cop or tracket
The reason we know this is because the fake claim was doctor. Scum could have claimed anything, literally anything in a situation where they were getting lynched if he was going to get lynched anyway. The doctor claims tells us two things (at the point all this happened). He is actually doctor, they correctly identified what colum we were in and made the right call for a role that lined up with a cop claim that they were not even sure was accurate.
It's way more likely lunar is town and the people on his wagon early on, along with the norfolk wagon are scum
- Lunar Martian
- Lunar Martian
-
Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
I also think quiet is Mafia.In post 821, safebet222 wrote:Sorry fixed my post.In post 820, safebet222 wrote:Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as town? Something is wrong with your reads, there.In post 817, Lunar Martian wrote:Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.In post 803, quiet wrote:@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.