Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[Mikul]

@battlemage

We aren't biting each other's heads off for once

https://youtu.be/3Yd3lQVbkYc

[Battle Mage]

If it’s goon, goon, then at WORST, making the doc claim is a 50/50. No way BB is a mason here, nothing from day1 indicated it in any way. So from scum POV, bb softclaim must be fakeclaim, jailor, cop.

...you think it's more likely BBMolla was vanilla than a mason? he could easily make that play as mason.

Didn’t really credit fake claim, and from the way the soft claim went down, I was thinking an investigative role. Mikul, ask yourself if you had any kind of read on BB when Lunar claimed doctor. In that situation, do you have enough info about BBs role to take the 50/50 on E-1? Totally reasonable from my perspective.

I think it’s productive to discuss, but I agree with mikul that that voting in that direction seems bad today.

No, it's not productive to discuss (why would it be if you have no intention of voting there anyway!?) and you're clutching at straws here for reasons I can't fathom.

Something I’m curious about. Unwnd, why do you feel like safebet is a good vote today? Re-read what you said yesterday, but it was fairly brief/mixed in with a lot of other things. I also think I’ve heard safebets name thrown out as a possibility by a few others (e.g. lunar). Curious where the read is coming from.

this is a bit saucy

[Mikul]

Also quiets voluntary lynch of himself makes me triple down on my thoughts. We should take him up on that

[Mikul]

@battlemage

What town slip from your pred

[Battle Mage]

Also Mikul, I still think you're town and I doubt much changes for me. I could say right now again taking claims as clear then my list looks like this

{BBMolla, Lunar}
{Mikul}
{Peta, Safebet}
{Norfolk, Quiet, Illwei}

I'm down with any of the 3 I listed at the bottom. I do not think those 3 contain the scumteam, but numbers remain on our side atp

I don't think Quiet is the right vote. This is impressive in it's own right if he's fooling me, but the measures he's taken feel too overbearing for having a potential partner. Quiet would be more hush at E-1 and would be afraid of spewing his mate, but instead he's sitting here and

asking what he could do better.

That just

Can't be scumplay.

I'm pretty fooled by you as well peta if you're scum, you're much more animated than what I've observed of your scumgame, wherein you play a bit more calculated in the way you display your emotions, sometimes using them as a crutch to get you out of bad situations

Not sure where it serves you to switch to norfolk like this as scum lol

I think Safebet would probably be the safebet (lol) for me because I don't think the game-state has prominently changed overnight. I still think Quiet/Mikul were likely town arguing semnatics with one another and at this current point I'm not willing to suggest the idea of limming there. Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?

The list does not really line up with the other posts, despite some of them coming on the same day as the list.

this is good posting. At the end of Day 1, Petapan bent over backwards to save Quiet to elim 1 of 2 town players, and Unwnd's position on Quiet as above appears to be inconsistent too.

[Battle Mage]

@battlemage

What town slip from your pred

he forgot how many scum are in a newbie setup

[Battle Mage]

I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.

@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?

Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.

Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as scum? Something is wrong with your reads, there.

yuck

If we even go toward lunar, i'm going to quickly become the most uncooperative towny you ever met

For lunar to fake claim all of the following have to be true

1) They were 100 percent sure bb was a pr
2) They were sure he was actually claiming that role, and was not baiting a night kill
3) They were not just sure he was cop, they were sure he was a cop or tracket

The reason we know this is because the fake claim was doctor. Scum could have claimed anything, literally anything in a situation where they were getting lynched if he was going to get lynched anyway. The doctor claims tells us two things (at the point all this happened). He is actually doctor, they correctly identified what colum we were in and made the right call for a role that lined up with a cop claim that they were not even sure was accurate.

It's way more likely lunar is town and the people on his wagon early on, along with the norfolk wagon are scum

I hate the threat... its almost like you're baiting us to go there. Eliminating a perfectly plausible scenario and just throwing up your hands that you'll take the "L" if it is the case is not very town friendly. I get the point of view of not wanting to push there today... but you have to at least consider it at some point if he doesn't die, right?

Trying to keep Lunar on the table as a possible mis-elim is scummy (notwithstanding the idea that it's too scummy to be scum)

[Battle Mage]

unwnd + safebet

Well, I townread Illwei into infinity, and I’m in the other pair, so I’m all aboard this train pls and thank you

unfortunately I don't think it's unwnd and safebet anymore.

[Battle Mage]

BM would like to see a bit more from you eventually before I decide where I'm headed

I'll flash a little leg in due course

i think he's likely a player who gets falsely suspected a lot and he probably just gets killed overnight

I agree with not voting them today, but I don’t think they get killed a lot.

The rb can just rb them every night, and force town to decide. The doc just becomes another vanilla town that can’t do anything-which neatly masks the goon play.

From my perspective, I think I need to scumhunt within peta, safe, unwnd. Illwei maybe, but I think I’d like to focus on the first three. Mikul is clear in my eyes.

@peta oof, my bad, lie more, got it.

The upper emphasis followed by the lower emphasis, from my understanding, just is not coming from scum, ever. Scum would keep that under wraps then never admit that he should lie more.

Raised eyebrow for you sir. I'm not convinced that's towntelling.

[Battle Mage]

Safebet (lots of susses been thrown their way-prob mostly for lack of activity, which has proven to be an incredibly bad indicator of guilt this game)

I will say this, quiet - I think you've played well this game. If scum, you've worked really hard.

The Safebet read above is pretty lacklustre. They were never called out as a lurker slot, and although their activity wasn't always the highest, I don't think they got sussed for it in the main thread.

But I can't help but wonder if you're channelling your own annoyance here at having a scumpartner who you felt didn't pull his weight? You can tell me if so, I'm a good listener and I've been there myself.

Time to come clean to Uncle BM.

[Battle Mage]

Short summery: if lunar is scum, they have a ringer partner. I guess I’d entertain mikul then, but could just as easily be anyone else. If lunar town, I’m very sure there is at least one ringer scum. In the words of our dearly departed cop, “fuck this game is hard”. Scum never had to put themselves at risk yesterday, as the majority of people on the chopping block were town, and all PRs are eliminated or blocked forever now. I am most concerned about going into the late game with me, Lunar, mikul alive, with some ringers left, and me always getting voted, or lunar always getting voted, which sounds like a really really bad deal. An innocent ringer gets shot tonight. It feels like we should elim at least one of them and hope...or just get rid of me, to make sure a mikul, quiet, Lunar, x, x world doesn’t develop. That sounds world feels to me like a loss.

this is an awful idea.

I know, I'll pick 3 players, including myself, I think are town, and have them as the elim-pool now.

Dude, if you're town, please re-think this

[Battle Mage]

To make it even more direct, if none of the following happen:

1. Mikul or lunar or both stop thinking I’m scum (yeah no)
2. We hit on scum tonight
3. One of mikul, quiet, Lunar are voted tonight
4. mikul and Lunar are exactly scum

Mikul, Lunar, and I survive to tmmrw;
I get voted tmmrw and from my perspective where I know I’m inno, town loses.

Solutions:
1. everyone is so confident in townreading me that we vote one of them. I don’t like the mikul vote, Lunar is at best a 50/50, don’t think i inspire that kind of confidence, don’t love this plan.
2. Someone changes their mind and stops tunneling me into infinity.
3. We just find a scum and solve all our issues.
4. Vote me and make sure we find scum tmmrw. After scum hasn’t had to put themselves in the limelight once.

Am I missing something? Is that too in the weeds/making too many assumptions?

I can't hear you, get out of the weeds.

keep it simple man

[Battle Mage]

ok so 6 players.

Let's assume Lunar is doc. Mikul is town (partly because he's the only one talking sense about the Doc claim, and I completely buy the occam's razor thing - it's most likely Lunar is just town here; and he also has seemed less scummy than others).

leaves a pool of:

petapan, quiet, unwnd, safebet

My initial takes on potential pairings:

Not safebet and unwnd for the pronouns interaction early and the fact safebet admittedly felt awkward about the teacher/pupil shtick.

Not Unwnd and petapan for posts 248 and 249, just didnt feel like buddy interaction.

Unwnd and quiet

- originally I thought not due to the teacher/pupil shtick, but when quiet rolled that out as a self-defence thing of "I would never do that as scum with Unwnd", I now think it could have been scumbuddies. So that's possible.

I need to think more about the other 3 combinations (below), but think I'd rule out unwnd as the play today given I think he's only scum if quiet is, and quiet has better partner-equity with others.

petapan and quiet

petapan and safebet

quiet and safebet

independently, those are the 3 scummiest players too, so the elim pool today is within safebet, quiet, petapan for me. Initial preference is safebet as the scummiest player individually.

[Mikul]

Things I really don't like in this game

1) everyone has basically put quiet on the table but no one has the balls to bite. It really really makes me just keep going. All of his lims have been deterred by people who have him on their scum list.

2) battle mage - what are your thoughts on peta. I think his vote on unwnd early on was town af. But that's just me.

247

Everything about this vote and exchange bleeds town to me.


Lim order for me. From most town at top to most scum at bottom

*Luna
*Peta
*Ill / BM (will have to consider this more. But BM has been my spirit animal since his entry and most of his posting is town to me. It really makes me reconsider ills slip about 3 scum as a town vs scum slip)
*Safebet
*Uwnd
*Quiet

[Mikul]

Lmfao. You answered my question before I could type it

[Mikul]

If bm is buddying me I'm going to cry. But my confirmation bias just got a massive boner

[Mikul]

Well except for peta. I think you are going pro on uwnd for the exact reason I'm going pro with peta

[Mikul]

I can't really read safe bet. Most of his posting comes off as lacking sincerity or conviction but I'm not sure if that's because of the holidays and he feels obligated to generate content during slow periods or that it's scummy

Peta is the one who I've reaction / behavior read the hardest. The only thing that annoys me about peta is he's like a politician.

Quiet could be scum and I may go that way but maybe not , let's vote blah blah blah.

Tbf everyone's doing that with quiet and it makes me want to stab myself with a dull pencil.

[Mikul]

My safe bet read is more out of poe than behavior.

It's more like

Town is

Lunar
Peta


Scum is

Quiet
Uwnd


The middle lim order is

Ill
Safe.


So I just organize that via poe.

[Battle Mage]

on a read of petapan iso, i could see them with quiet or safebet, fairly equally.

Their safebet interaction early was cute - petapan asking lots of probing questions which didn't really amount to much. I was massively pinged by the bit where petapan said he wasn't going to tell anyone his reads, and safebet just passively accepted that. -1 point to petapan but -3 points to safebet. How do you, as newbie town, give potential SE-scum the advantage of not having to take firm positions!? Doesn't add up.

In my heart, I really really want to elim safebet.

[Battle Mage]

My safe bet read is more out of poe than behavior.

It's more like

Town is

Lunar
Peta


Scum is

Quiet
Uwnd


The middle lim order is

Ill
Safe.


So I just organize that via poe.

I don't townread peta, I think they've been really underwhelming if town. I didn't take much from the interaction you cited about unwnd or petapan's alignment independently - only that it makes them less likely to be scum together.

On the townslip thing - it's Occam's razor again. why would newbie scum fake a townslip like that under no pressure, when it appears that the wagons of yesterday were mostly on town anyway. It's possible, but not the most likely. For me, I have only townslipped twice I can recall. Once was genuine, as town. Once, interestingly was fake, as town, but people blew it off .

[quiet]

But saying my only play is to vote you because you won't stop
..yikes

This is nearly willfully misrepresenting what I said.

Answer me this.

If you, me, and lunar are Alive tmmrw, with 2 scum, where BECAUSE I DONT THINK BOTH YOU AND LUNAR ARE SCUM, at least one is outside us three-

Is there ever a world where I’m not ellimmed? You and lunar almost always vote me there. You and lunar and me always survive. I gave four options. I’m happy to hunt within unwnd and safebet. I don’t see myself ever voting BM, because Illwei is the townyist town that ever Towned to me.

But in a world where I am town, if we don’t hit today, and we don’t elim you me or lunar, then from my perspective, we lose tmmrw. People hunting for my partners feels bad, because I know I don’t have any. Unless there is a world where either you or lunar change your minds, I don’t see many options.

Skiing today so will be on more thourgly tonight. But mikul am I actually wrong about my logic?

[Mikul]

Sorry I'm late. Excited to be here! Absolutely no experience playing Mafia via forms, though some experience with hidden role games more generally. While waiting for a newbie game, I read through some previous games, and spent some quality time with the wiki, but I get the sense that none of that will really compare to the real thing.

To properly roleplay my naïveté, it feels only right and natrual to sheep for unwnd. @unwnd, please be my guiding hand, teach me the ways of killing scum.

VOTE: Mr Turtle[\vote]

------

Enough for me. I considered unvoting post my metadive

, but at that point, they hadn't moved the needle far enough back from scum yet from my perspective. Confirmation that brevity and pressure is his playstyle, both from them and from you, plus their interactions since then was enough to make me disinterested in leaving them at E-2.

I think the harder question is who I vote on now. Lunar is an option, safebet I would like to hear more from when they're available, but I don't feel super strongly about either at this point.

Maybe I'm overfearing E-2.

[/u]

[Mikul]

There are loads of examples of this.

I'ma noob I'ma sheep uwnd , here are my nooby reads blah blah

Okay e-2 scares me , let me meta dive

I'm just like O.o

[Battle Mage]

But saying my only play is to vote you because you won't stop
..yikes

This is nearly willfully misrepresenting what I said.

Answer me this.

If you, me, and lunar are Alive tmmrw, with 2 scum, where BECAUSE I DONT THINK BOTH YOU AND LUNAR ARE SCUM, at least one is outside us three-

Is there ever a world where I’m not ellimmed? You and lunar almost always vote me there. You and lunar and me always survive. I gave four options. I’m happy to hunt within unwnd and safebet. I don’t see myself ever voting BM, because Illwei is the townyist town that ever Towned to me.

But in a world where I am town, if we don’t hit today, and we don’t elim you me or lunar, then from my perspective, we lose tmmrw. People hunting for my partners feels bad, because I know I don’t have any. Unless there is a world where either you or lunar change your minds, I don’t see many options.

Skiing today so will be on more thourgly tonight. But mikul am I actually wrong about my logic?

why would scum not NK Lunar though? there is a risk that they become conftown on a mafia RB flip and they aren't a viable mis-elim.