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[Frogsterking]

@Trendall

Do you stand by your earlier evaluation of the Gamma slot back from this point in D1:

I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.

I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.

Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.

Okay. Would you like to say why?

Not particularly. Post #312 is the main reason but also just general vibes.

idk what's wrong with post 312 but w/e

Sry I'm trying to do like three things at once so haven't bothered to format this properly but check these two links for like, what I'm talking about here -

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12230155

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12298023

That's me in other games identifying some mafia people

[Trendall]

Yeah sounds fair

[Luca Blight]

Okay Amelie what happened just now is this:

Most of my time playing in a mafia game was played in live chat and mafia couldn't talk to each other during the day. So right before a mafia died sometimes they would out their pr read if they had one. For a second I thought bugs had read my previous post about hammering them and was outting their pr read on Lunar Martian for their partner, before bugs got hammered.

Then several seconds after I posted I realized I was in a game with day talk, so the fact that bugs pointed that out was actually something scum WOULDN'T do because they could just tell it to their partner in day chat.

I see where you're coming from here, but I'm not sure this is Town-indicative of Bugs. They are very loose with their talk of pr's as either alignment.

I remember Outworld TR Bugs early game for speculating about neighbors, but I think Bugs has done that in literally every game they've played, including their scum games.

In terms of their general play I still haven't seen a single reason to believe Bugs is town.

[Luca Blight]

Outworld feels townie based on page 38, especially in light of ORAM's flip.

[Luca Blight]

Oof dislike the way this went down. I hope you all prove me wrong about ORAM though.

As I touched on before, I got bad vibes from the post above. I checked what Lunar had said about ORAM before, and the only thing was this:

I should maybe clarify that a lot of what is coming across as me being temperamental is mostly me being sarcastic.

ORAM is town here.

Which was made immediately after ORAM's first post, in which he defended Lunar.

It felt as though the twilight post was there to remind people that Lunar townread ORAM, in order for them to bank their towncred, and possibly to shade the people on the wagon.

[Luca Blight]

leading a shit-push against an LHF slot and then immediately opening the second day by pushing another LHF slot that protested that same wagon

yeah okay

VOTE: Frogsterking

I'm pretty confident on Frogster/Bugspray now, but I'm holding off on pushing them for the time being since I want them to share info from Amelie's hood, assuming their claim is real (if they get CC'd they're getting turbo-elimmed immediately though).

Frogster is obvtown. I can go into more detail on this later if need be.

I'm curently torn between eliminating Bugs/Lunar, much as I was D1. Leaning slightly towards Lunar atm.

[Luca Blight]

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

I don't believe Outworld ever stated or even implied a strong town read on ORAM - he was just far from convinced and preferred eliminating Bugs, which is fair enough.

[OutWorldER]

I think Amelie's flip makes Lunar a really bad elim at the current moment. It's conjecture obviously but it was pointed out that Lunar softed a TPR and I'd assume Amelie would probably protect that.

Of the two you're looking to lim Luca I'm obviously very open to Bugs.

[Luca Blight]

Trendel: He hasn't managed to town tell a single time this game FMPOV. I guess there was a moment when he was being cooperative with Momrangul and voted OutWorldER, I'm curious whether Momrangul felt this was a townie interaction. He did say that he's all-neuroticism in his response to the SSS so maybe he is nervous. He's sort of playing the "Anti Town" archetype but doesn't seem like he's enjoying it very much. Posts just enough to not be the least active player. My instinct is that he's scum.

I think I've said it before, but Trendall is almost unreadable. I've looked at their meta and they play in the same dour, negative manner as either alignment. If I had no strong SR's I'd probably push them as a policy-elim for this reason.

[Luca Blight]

I think Amelie's flip makes Lunar a really bad elim at the current moment. It's conjecture obviously but it was pointed out that Lunar softed a TPR and I'd assume Amelie would probably protect that.

Of the two you're looking to lim Luca I'm obviously very open to Bugs.

That's a good point. I hadn't considered that possibility.

[Luca Blight]

there were four reasons I townread bugs at the conclusion of D1:

a) Their claim seemed real.
b) They have a tendency to be miseliminated, especially as pr apparently. I knew this before I even played with bugs because another player mentioned it in an earlier game.
c) bugs pointed out Lunar's soft in-thread and (if it's real) if they were scum they would have shut up about it. It was a moment that was such a strong town tell it made me reconsider.
d) Amelie who I had just resorted as town had bugs as a strong townread.

Only c) is a possible reason to TR Bugs imo, and it is a good reason, but as I said I really could see Scum!Bugs openly talking about possible Town PR's in thread even with day chat.

For d) you already seem to disagree with most of Amelie's reads so I'm not sure why you'd put much stock into what she thought. Her reasoning for believing Bugs was Town was also flawed; she believed the claim, but even though the claim is true Bugs isn't necessarily town.

For b) I've hard town-read Bugs every time they have been Town, and scumread them the only time they've been scum. They may be mis-elimed sometimes, but they definitely do town-telly things as Town, which hasn't been the case in this game.

[Luca Blight]

Frogster, Outworld, NPOM, Grendel
Gamma
Galron

Trendall
Momrangal

Lunar, Bugs

This is kind of where I'm at now, but I need to review a few slots.

[Luca Blight]

I'm a little paranoid of Grendel, actually.

[Frogsterking]

I can get behind a tentative game solve that returns bugs to the PoE with the entire scum team being within Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall.

IF you believe the entire scum team is within this PoE, AND the vast majority of living town players agree with with this PoE,
THEN the scum team MUST disrupt the status quo in some way, AND right now is their best chance to do so, with an 8 to 3 town to scum ratio.

This is the clear scum motivation I'm seeing right now in OutWorldER's play that I'm not seeing in Trendall or bugs, even though I agree OutWorldER successfully dropped town tells EoD1 and so far on D2, I believe he could simply be attempting to fight his way out of the PoE. If this PoE is correct I don't see how scum!Trendall or scum!bugs are expecting to win the game playing today the way they have, unless they are expecting OutWorldER or some deep scum to carry them.

[Galron]

I'm still agnostic on Bugs tbh, probably town lean. Their willingness to share info from the hood but only after getting the okay doesn't seem like something mafia would do.

[Trendall]

I don't see how scum!Trendall or scum!bugs are expecting to win the game playing today the way they have, unless they are expecting OutWorldER or some deep scum to carry them.

I'm in favour of eliminating OutWorldER though.

[Galron]

The more I look at Lunar's recent, the less I want to eliminate there today. They're starting to look like defensive town rather than defensive scum.

UNVOTE: Lunar Martian

[Luca Blight]

I can get behind a tentative game solve that returns bugs to the PoE with the entire scum team being within Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall.

IF you believe the entire scum team is within this PoE, AND the vast majority of living town players agree with with this PoE,
THEN the scum team MUST disrupt the status quo in some way, AND right now is their best chance to do so, with an 8 to 3 town to scum ratio.

This is the clear scum motivation I'm seeing right now in OutWorldER's play that I'm not seeing in Trendall or bugs, even though I agree OutWorldER successfully dropped town tells EoD1 and so far on D2, I believe he could simply be attempting to fight his way out of the PoE. If this PoE is correct I don't see how scum!Trendall or scum!bugs are expecting to win the game playing today the way they have, unless they are expecting OutWorldER or some deep scum to carry them.

This is the kind of thought process where you can end up tying yourself in knots. I posted my reads to show where I'm at, but I don't feel in a position to accurately solve by PoE right now.

You could have made the same argument about Amelie D1, but she was Town. I think Outworld is showing a townie mindset, and that's good enough for me right now. I'm certainly open to the possibility I could be wrong about one of my TR's, and I need to review Grendel, Galron and Gamma in particular.

[Luca Blight]

I also don't think scum always play proactively - often they lay back and hope for Town to bury itself, which frequently happens.

[Luca Blight]

And you used the example of Trendall and Bugs - the two players I know for a fact wouldn't play proactively as scum.

[Luca Blight]

The more I look at Lunar's recent, the less I want to eliminate there today. They're starting to look like defensive town rather than defensive scum.

UNVOTE: Lunar Martian

What are your general reads right now across the board?

[Luca Blight]

UNVOTE:

Im willing to take flack if Lunar ends up flipping scum. I am wary of a world where Lunar is a rude town PR given his abrasiveness to claiming.

I'll probably revote once i do some thinking.

Grendel already openly speculated that Lunar could be a town PR as well, so Bugs wasn't even the first to bring it up.

Would you consider this a townslip on Grendel's part as well, Frogster?

[bugspray]

VOTE: unvote

[Luca Blight]

I have to get some rest soon. I'll try to swing by in the morning before I go to work.

There's a very good chance that im getting nk'd tonight if Luca vs Lunar is TvT. Historically I've found that Scum are afraid of townies that are willing to actively break up TvTs inthread.

The more I consider this the more I find it weird coming from a Town perspective.

@Frogster:

I'm interested in what you think about this too.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I love personality tests and all this sort of thing, I just think the way that you in particular are trying to apply them to this game is bad.

Hmm, I hate personality tests, but I think the way he is applying it is good.