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[Frogsterking]

VOTE: OutWorldER

First of all, I want to get this out of the way. I can feel his hot breath and cold sweat emanating from my laptop as he beats furiously to work his way out of the PoE. Also, most players do not enjoy playing scum and I can't find a semblance of joy in any of his posts.

Second of all, I remember that Luca had questions for me and if anyone else did you might need to @ me again because I think I missed it.

UNVOTE:

Im willing to take flack if Lunar ends up flipping scum. I am wary of a world where Lunar is a rude town PR given his abrasiveness to claiming.

I'll probably revote once i do some thinking.

Grendel already openly speculated that Lunar could be a town PR as well, so Bugs wasn't even the first to bring it up.

Would you consider this a townslip on Grendel's part as well, Frogster?

Wow I totally missed that Bugs wasn't the first to point this out.

I'm not sure if it's a townslip or not, there could be something major to draw from this post but I'm not really getting anything other than that it's consistent with other material I've seen from Grendel.

I have to get some rest soon. I'll try to swing by in the morning before I go to work.

There's a very good chance that im getting nk'd tonight if Luca vs Lunar is TvT. Historically I've found that Scum are afraid of townies that are willing to actively break up TvTs inthread.

The more I consider this the more I find it weird coming from a Town perspective.

@Frogster:

I'm interested in what you think about this too.

Yeah I found this weird too and I took a mental note of it to FoS him if he kept saying stuff like that. There was another weird comment too on a different entity (someone using meta to mirror his town play and get town read by him). I think Grendel may just be slightly weird in a thinking-outside-the-box way, and posting in a semi-stream of consciousness style, I'm not sure if it's AI.

Now, as a side affect (effect?) of taking that mental note about the TvT, I've been much more aware of the potential of TvTs this game, which as far as I know has been improving my reads. So it's possible Grendel thinks more than other players about TvTs because thinking that way has been helpful to him in the past.

I feel as though Grendel has put a lot of effort into looking Townie and solving, asking questions etc, but I don't see a lot of substance behind a lot of his questions, and most of his play has been on the safe side. Asking questions to the thread etc seems an easy way to look productive without actually doing much.

One of the reasons I TR him was because of the way he handled the argument between myself and Lunar, but the above quote again shows he was very aware of it being a townie thing to do.

You asked me about my read on Grendel a couple times as you were resorting the Grendel, Momrangal, and another slot, and it seems to me that you could benefit from reading my long post; post 815, if only to understand exactly how I'm sorting the Grendel slot and why, possibly also to shed some insight into your own observations on Grendel's behavior.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

[Frogsterking]

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

[Luca Blight]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

And it makes me consider that of the Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall box, Trendall is the townie, which is the impetus for Lunar's case.

[Luca Blight]

Ok. I'll review Outworld to see what I'm missing there.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

And it makes me consider that of the Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall box, Trendall is the townie, which is the impetus for Lunar's case.

Which makes me consider:

leading a shit-push against an

LHF slot

and then immediately opening the second day by pushing

another LHF slot that protested that same wagon

yeah okay

VOTE: Frogsterking

I'm pretty confident on Frogster/Bugspray now, but I'm holding off on pushing them for the time being since I want them to share info from Amelie's hood, assuming their claim is real (if they get CC'd they're getting turbo-elimmed immediately though).

Like when did OutWorldER start townreading Trendall? Why is he assuming Trendall is LHF instead of scum?

I could see OutWorldER being a scum PR trying to buss bugs here and Lunar is just trying to hang on as long as possible and set up a competing town wagon.

[Luca Blight]

I'm not really seeing the connections you're drawing there, Frogster. Maybe I'm missing something, but I doubt Outworld would have taken this stance and argued hard for it if he were scum with Lunar and Bugs:

A votecount would be nice.

I'm doing Lunar or Bugspray today. I'm still not sold on ORAM wagon.

Bugspray's claim is more likely to be scum, I think. I absolutely do not think a Town Backup Neighbor openly specs on neighbors.

Reviewing the evidence, I'm inclined to say Bugspray is a Traitor, actually. I thjnk his open spec on neighbors makes more sense from the perspective of a Traitor with info on Neighbors/Masons in the setup.

I also get what he's saying here, so don't get any bussing vibes particularly.

[Luca Blight]

Like when did OutWorldER start townreading Trendall? Why is he assuming Trendall is LHF instead of scum?

If he's scumreading you then it's a natural assumption to make. Look at Amelie D1 - she assumed Bugs was Town purely on the basis that I'm scum, despite finding them scummy.

[Frogsterking]

I'm pretty ready to scum case OutWorldER based on his ISO alone and not taking into account any partner associative tells, I see a very distinct scum agenda from his iso as long as you assume both NPOM and I are town.

If you scum read by tone Luca, look at the unenthusiastic and mildly pissed off tone in all of OutWorldER's posts.

[Luca Blight]

Trendall must be scum then if we're basing it on how unenthusiastic and mildly pissed off people are

I'll look into it.

[Luca Blight]

Does scum choose to 1v1 you here rather than just kill you? Granted, it's possible Amelie might have taken a bullet for you, but I'm still not sure scum would approach it in this manner.

I'm much more used to passive scum players to be honest. Scum who have an active agenda and plan are pretty few and far between from my experience.

I'll stay open minded though if you want to do that scum case.

[Frogsterking]

I agree, and in Trendall's case it's in his meta to play this way, OutWorldER I'm not sure.

From my experience almost all town players will engage with me here in some way:

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

It was never a strong townread, or even a townread at all but the slot was blatant LHF that never said or did anything too egregious. I would've been open to limming it on future days had ORAM continued with that but at that time bugspray appeared far scummier with a clear mafia agenda visible in their posts. The fact that you dodged the points I made against them and blatantly approached me in bad faith at the end of the day only gives me further confidence in pushing you two.

I assume by "D1 may have been an off-wagon day" you mean you think scum were off-wagon? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that, or what you mean if that's not the case.

I'm not sure what LHF means, also, there were four reasons I townread bugs at the conclusion of D1:

a) Their claim seemed real.
b) They have a tendency to be miseliminated, especially as pr apparently. I knew this before I even played with bugs because another player mentioned it in an earlier game.
c) bugs pointed out Lunar's soft in-thread and (if it's real) if they were scum they would have shut up about it. It was a moment that was such a strong town tell it made me reconsider.
d) Amelie who I had just resorted as town had bugs as a strong townread.

Because of the soft pointed out in c) I was looking to D1 another player other than Lunar or bugs now, and my scum team at the time was Lunar/ORAM/bugs so it made sense through process of elimination.

I was very intentionally provoking you by approaching in bad faith because you're guarded and your slot is difficult to read and you did not take my test so I do not know if this is AI. I believed you might be raging about your scum partner when you called ORAM/agb a lurking fuck that would never help you. I also have seen scum use a very similar line about a lurker who was not their partner. Once you used that line, I had you as obv scum. During N1 I self-reflected and decided my read of you was not based on evidence, that's why I'm open to resorting your slot.

I believe scum may have been off-wagon because I don't think scum are anxious to jump onto a wagon that might cost them town cred. I think from scums point of view EoD1, if they do nothing, then either there's a nolim or a town gets lynched.

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

It was never a strong townread, or even a townread at all but the slot was blatant LHF that never said or did anything too egregious. I would've been open to limming it on future days had ORAM continued with that but at that time bugspray appeared far scummier with a clear mafia agenda visible in their posts. The fact that you dodged the points I made against them and blatantly approached me in bad faith at the end of the day only gives me further confidence in pushing you two.

I assume by "D1 may have been an off-wagon day" you mean you think scum were off-wagon? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that, or what you mean if that's not the case.

I guess what I'm getting at about the bad faith thing is that the intent was tactical and for sorting, not to shade you or for personal reasons.

Bugs pointing out Lunar's TPR soft can go either way. I can see it as how you described it but your discarding the very real possibility of Mafia Traitor I brought up EoD1. I think there's a definite possibility of them pointing out targets in-thread, especially with them also pointing to Galron/NPOM openly. It's why I'm pretty sure Lunar is town, though I'll admit my reasoning for TRing him is mostly conjecture.

It's why I'm very wary of the Backup Neighbor claim. I could easily see a mod using that as a way to have a Traitor be "recruited" so to speak into the main mafia group.

I think that your theory makes sense and that sounds like a good setup. I wasn't really thinking about that possibility because bugs behavior afterword made me think they were town. Like if bugs got promoted to the town hood instead of the scum hood and they are traitor why not share what they learned here in-thread? I will keep your idea in the back of my mind because it sounds like a possibility.

There's been a thought in the back of my mind since the beginning that

Frogster just threw out the OCEAN test shit to look smart and accumulate early TR's

while being able to throw out a bunch of nonsense to justify his pushes. Securing that thought in my mind is that

he himself never shared his results and didn't even link a test in the beginning

, refusing to, for some reason. It all seems in very bad faith.

That and the wagon yesterday make-up why I'm voting him right now.

a) In a best-case scenario I expected to get TRed for it because it gave town more information to work with and eventually lead to a D1 scum lynch, and in a worst-case scenario I expected to get no engagement and eventually be lynched for it. I wasn't sure which way it would skew.

b) By the time I realized I hadn't posted my own results I wasn't sure if it was wanted. FMPOV when I see a player suggesting an RQS for example I'm not as interested in their own results because I felt like I learned about them from the questions they came up with. I can definitely answer it now if anyone would like.

The fact that OutWorldER disengages and then later changes his vote but claims I'm still scum is either a scum or butt hurt townie in my opinion.

[Luca Blight]

Tunneling is real. I really see no reason to say he's scum based on that, I have to be honest.

With ORAM's flip in mind, I find Outworld's end of D1 posting Townie, and I like his push on Bugs and the traitor theory. 1007 is decent as well.

I could well understand why you wanted ORAM eliminated, and I could also understand Outworld's position. I usually dislike the term TvT, but I think this is a fine example of that.

[Frogsterking]

Does scum choose to 1v1 you here rather than just kill you? Granted, it's possible Amelie might have taken a bullet for you, but I'm still not sure scum would approach it in this manner.

I'm much more used to passive scum players to be honest. Scum who have an active agenda and plan are pretty few and far between from my experience.

I'll stay open minded though if you want to do that scum case.

Interesting, I'm more used to teams with 1 scum that has an active agenda and tries to plan, at least in some capacity, while the others are either passive or try to follow.

And I'll stay open minded to OutWorldER being the town in Lunar/Bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall or that my PoE is wrong.

[Frogsterking]

Tunneling is real. I really see no reason to say he's scum based on that, I have to be honest.

With ORAM's flip in mind, I find Outworld's end of D1 posting Townie, and I like his push on Bugs and the traitor theory. 1007 is decent as well.

I could well understand why you wanted ORAM eliminated, and I could also understand Outworld's position. I usually dislike the term TvT, but I think this is a fine example of that.

Yeah I could definitely see me and OutWorldER being TvT.

Do you think it's probable that Lunar is bussing Trendall here?

[Luca Blight]

I get the feeling Lunar is Town based on their recent posts. You theorized earlier that Lunar's meta could be different from their previous town game due to this being their first time out of the Newbie queue, and their recent posts are much more in line from what I'd expect from Town!Lunar.

I'll go back and check though to make sure.

[Luca Blight]

Maybe it's possible, but I'm pretty confident Lunar is Town now. I'm not sure they could suddenly turn it on like that as scum out of nowhere. It seems genuine.

[Frogsterking]

I get the feeling Lunar is Town based on their recent posts. You theorized earlier that Lunar's meta could be different from their previous town game due to this being their first time out of the Newbie queue, and their recent posts are much more in line from what I'd expect from Town!Lunar.

I'll go back and check though to make sure.

I think that explanation is likely part of the reason for Lunar's change in gameplay, both from meta and from D1 to D2, I don't believe it necessarily means they has to be Town!Lunar though. The strangeness of D1 could be explained by BOTH adjusting out of the Newbie queue and to first-time scum.

[Luca Blight]

I also like their read change on me - it would be so easy for scum to ride a scum read like that instead of reassessing.

Again, I'll stay open to the possibility of Lunar!scum but I'm happy enough with them for now.

[Luca Blight]

Frogster, NPOM
Outworld
Lunar

Gamma
Galron
Grendel

Trendall
Momrangal

Bugs

Sorting GGG is probably the key to this game.

[Luca Blight]

VOTE: Bugs

[Frogsterking]

I'm not really down to vote Momrangal so it looks like our views are mainly aligning on Bugs and Trendall, which is fine with me.

VOTE: Bugspray

[Luca Blight]

Actually It's probably harsh to have Momrangal below Trendall. They're both about null-scum for me, though.

I believe she is due a prod actually

@Mod

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