Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[Mikul]

@peta is there a world where lunar is scum
@uwnd is there a world where lunar is scum

I think we break this game down differently

In my mind lunar is nearly a town lock.

So that leaves one of you as town and the other as scum. From poe if you buy lunar , you should be looking the same direction

If peta town - lunar lock - uwnd scum - me or safe scum scum
If uwnd town - lunar lock - peta scum - me or safe scum.

I think we pick me or safe today, because it's a much easier choice to get right

[Mikul]

If lunar is scum , the game is already over. I don't think I will ever get to the point where I will lim him. Said this over and over. Barring a slip , it's going to be very hard for me to accept that

[Lunar Martian]

I agree that the move is to go for safebet today probably. I also think we should sort out between peta and unwnd as much as possible today, since tomorrow presumably it'll be the two of them with me or Mikul, and today we have more brains working to figure them out.

[Mikul]

@lunar who were your targets.

[Mikul]

Also lunar why @safebet

[petapan]

unwnd:

yes, at that point in time, i thought you were scum, i was looking over everyone else, thinking i had reasons to find them town, and that the reasons for seeing you as town were least convincing so i decided to vote you. i figured that was kind of clear? i think the question is what me turning on you there is supposed to get me as scum vs me just starting to legitimately doubt you.

i never got much chance to interact with battle mage. he didn't seem interested in talking to me much. i don't know exactly why i didn't pressure him. my thought process for the day went illwei isn't here -> maybe i should pressure safebet since my read there might have been wrong and he could potentially be scum with illwei, by the look of it -> he gets pressured and his response feels town -> i re-think you because i feel i've started to wrongly rule someone out

i think i've been clear that for a significant part of the game i've found lunar scummy by play, there were points where they said a little where i thought maybe they could be town but overall the way they have played does not give me town vibes. i've doubted because clearly they're very stylistically blunt in a way that gets them scumread regardless of alignment, but the way they are playing here doesn't feel like there's a lot of genuine inquiry behind it. they were heavy on leaning on the excuses for their absence, and just semed to make votes and pushes with little reason on day 2. it felt like their play here was lacking something in comparison to the game where they were eliminated in day 1. i didn't bother questioning the read day 2 because i didn't think paranoia-ing lunar at that stage was productive because i don't think 4 people would have been convinced to vote them. i think most of us were holding on to the idea that if they were town they might die.

if it sounds like i don't scumread you it's because i'm town and there is obviously significant cause for doubt in my mind which i am

trying

to clarify with you but it feels like there's a disconnect. i have to try to view the game in terms of possible teams even though i hate thinking like this. and from that perspective, safebet and unwnd seems unlikely as he'd be bussing you out of the gate day 1 for no particularly good reason. safebet and mikul also seems weird because he'd have to not only be distancing from a fairly townread teammate but also trying to bus on day 2 when it would have been safe but somewhat oddly timed when he could pressure elsewhere. they also actually interacted so little to a degree that i doubt it? that's a weird read, obviously, but mikul basically didn't pay much attention to safebet's scumread of him and i'd expect intentional distancing to have more interaction. mikul and unwnd, as i said, is not impossible, i could see your routine yesterday being fake, and obviously such a team would be in a very good position to win whether it's today or tomorrow. but ultimately i have to question why that team kills battle mage rather than lunar martian when BM was likely to vote against me and wouldn't bat an eyelash at the LM kill. that applies to any of those potential teams, really.

and so i'm left with thinking lunar is likely scum, and to me it really seems like they could be scum with any of you. and so for all my concern about your play around me, i still have to ask why you ever kill battle mage here, especially if teamed with lunar. that team doesn't seem to have a path to victory when i'm otherwise more townread than you. the WIFOM nightkill is possible, i just won a game with it, but i don't know why you don't play it straight here because it's just harder to persuade people. and i don't know that lunar opens today the way he does if you're his teammate.

and this is a very long winded way of saying that i want to vote lunar, because i'm okay with losing to unwnd/mikul, unwnd/safetbet, or mikul/safebet, but i'm not okay with losing to lunar martian, who has gotten a pass for 2 days on the back of a claim but hasn't been town on play. i want to clarify this on a reread but that's what i'm thinking right now.

[petapan]

thats too many words what have i become

[Lunar Martian]

Also lunar why @safebet

I'm pretty confident that you're Town, and kinda doubt that both peta and unwnd are Mafia. I suppose that this argument between them could be staged, but it's unlikely.

I targeted you last night, and BB on night 1.

[Mikul]

This game is aids. Fucking bb

[Mikul]

On top of me playing horribly I'm now just confused af.

[Mikul]

Ironically behavior wise. I read lunar scummy af. But for me to read him as scum I'd have to buy into the fact he fake claimed on pressure and was able to identify that bb was telling the truth about the claim and pic that fake claim for preservation. I know claims aren't ai but I'm still stuck on occam's razor. It's possible. It's just easier to think he is actually doctor and didn't manufacturer all that under pressure that fast

The read on him is essential because if i continue to town block him then safe bet is definitely the confirmed lim by poe.

Partially because I don't see a world where a scum team of peta and uwnd exists. They could focus someone else or do something different. All this theatre is pointless. It could be town vs town but if that's the case that makes a lunar safebet team , and lunar has been willing to kill safebet multiple times. So that doesn't make sense.

It still leaves me with

Peta - safe
Uwnd - safe

And I just read peta town as af.


Have not did a full re read. Just glanced but getting off work early today and going to dedicate an hour to a final choice

[petapan]

Ironically behavior wise. I read lunar scummy af. But for me to read him as scum I'd have to buy into the fact he fake claimed on pressure and was able to identify that bb was telling the truth about the claim and pic that fake claim for preservation. I know claims aren't ai but I'm still stuck on occam's razor. It's possible. It's just easier to think he is actually doctor and didn't manufacturer all that under pressure that fast

i have thoughts on this but just accidentally clicked to check the OP and lost them because i had written them in a preview page. dammit. need a moment to rewrite them

[petapan]

basically, i don't think claiming a PR there is an enormous risk for mafia - if the setup is two goons, they know that 2/3 of the setups have no power roles, and they can try to guess the missing PR that WOULD be in column A. In a worst case scenario, BB counter claims them and they likely lose that battle, but a VT claim would be likely to be eliminated anyway, so it's low risk with a potentially high reward - a correct guess means they survive, because town won't want to eliminate a PR claim on day 1, and on future days they can claim to be roleblocked as an excuse for their survival.

additionally, BB let slip what role he was when he outed:

If I’m right about things a night kill on me is likely to fail but I welcome it and why I’m pretty okay claiming early

this very obviously is hinting that he's expecting doctor protection. say what you will about lunar's terse posts, i don't assume them to be completely unintelligent, and i believe if mafia, they or their partner would be observant enough to notice this and know to claim doctor to try to avoid elimination.

in fact, i think i remember you picking up on this day 1 when you were pressuring him to hardclaim?

[safebet222]

basically, i don't think claiming a PR there is an enormous risk for mafia - if the setup is two goons, they know that 2/3 of the setups have no power roles, and they can try to guess the missing PR that WOULD be in column A. In a worst case scenario, BB counter claims them and they likely lose that battle, but a VT claim would be likely to be eliminated anyway, so it's low risk with a potentially high reward - a correct guess means they survive, because town won't want to eliminate a PR claim on day 1, and on future days they can claim to be roleblocked as an excuse for their survival.

additionally, BB let slip what role he was when he outed:

If I’m right about things a night kill on me is likely to fail but I welcome it and why I’m pretty okay claiming early

this very obviously is hinting that he's expecting doctor protection. say what you will about lunar's terse posts, i don't assume them to be completely unintelligent, and i believe if mafia, they or their partner would be observant enough to notice this and know to claim doctor to try to avoid elimination.

in fact, i think i remember you picking up on this day 1 when you were pressuring him to hardclaim?

This is what I've been saying all along.

[safebet222]

I am convinced we're dealing with a scum mikul and probably teamed with lunar.

Peta, unwnd... Take a reread of your conversation at the beginning of today and look at mikul's comments afterward. It's basically playing into your insecurities over each other, the BM NK and the Lunar claim. It is offering you a convenient solution, a common denominator, me.

But look how mikul was the one who first understood the nature of the BB claim, immediately threw a quick sus lunar's way to then tunnel quiet again. It easily could have been coaching lunar for that claim. It then basically shut out all consideration of a scum!lunar D2 and was townread for it. Now it's conveniently entertaining a scum lunar when stakes are the highest. FMPOV the BB claim fell into its lap like a Christmas gift and its taking advantage of it and telling you exactly what its doing is very unlikely.

I also find each of you to be most likely town. First, because I don't think its coincidence that you started today looking at each other as a possible candidate. Second, although stylistically different, your approaches were very similar, looking to play a casual, toned down game in service to the website. I personally think your D1 votes look quite like you both unexpectedly found yourselves in a much harder game than originally expected. I would expect scum!peta or scum!unwnd to be expecting difficulties and be more methodical than you both have been.

That's the best way I can explain where I am at.

[safebet222]

So I of course would be down to vote either of them, my preference is voting mikul first.

[unwnd]

I need a nap then I'll look over your big post peta

[unwnd]

I read all of it. Let's not just trade walls though. The summary of that is 'Hey, I'm town. I'm worried you're town too (though I scumread you), and that Lunar could just be scum and I refuse to lose to him' is that pretty much correct?

[Mikul]

No I certainly picked up on what he was claiming. The issue I have is that it takes more than that to pull off that fake claim. That was why I wanted to pressure BB ; to test if he was telling the truth, not because I thought there was a doctor. The reason I was pushing for the doctor to claim was because it would affirm BB , and also why I wanted to lock BB into that role. If you follow the time line of my posting. I was insistent on pushing him because I thought as scum BB claiming that would be a safe play (since he was the target of the dp at that point). The issue is all this happens in hindsight. None of those claimed had been absolutely outed at that point and lunar still could have been risking a cc by any other power role if bb was lying. I def think its possible, just not likely.

There is no world where he would be trying to bait the doctor as scum. Like out the doctor because he was dying for a CC so his partner could kill them. They would be in a goon goon setup. He was sure enough that BB was cop and there was no chance he was fake claiming to be able to claim that. He could have got cced by any other role in the game if BB was lying. BB had not claimed by then is the issue. We only know what he was from the flip

[unwnd]

I am convinced we're dealing with a scum mikul and probably teamed with lunar.

Peta, unwnd... Take a reread of your conversation at the beginning of today and look at mikul's comments afterward. It's basically playing into your insecurities over each other, the BM NK and the Lunar claim. It is offering you a convenient solution, a common denominator, me.

But look how mikul was the one who first understood the nature of the BB claim, immediately threw a quick sus lunar's way to then tunnel quiet again. It easily could have been coaching lunar for that claim. It then basically shut out all consideration of a scum!lunar D2 and was townread for it. Now it's conveniently entertaining a scum lunar when stakes are the highest. FMPOV the BB claim fell into its lap like a Christmas gift and its taking advantage of it and telling you exactly what its doing is very unlikely.

I also find each of you to be most likely town. First, because I don't think its coincidence that you started today looking at each other as a possible candidate. Second, although stylistically different, your approaches were very similar, looking to play a casual, toned down game in service to the website. I personally think your D1 votes look quite like you both unexpectedly found yourselves in a much harder game than originally expected. I would expect scum!peta or scum!unwnd to be expecting difficulties and be more methodical than you both have been.

That's the best way I can explain where I am at.

I'm considering this and want to see Lunar/Mikul defend themselves first in regards to your own logic

[petapan]

I read all of it. Let's not just trade walls though. The summary of that is 'Hey, I'm town. I'm worried you're town too (though I scumread you), and that Lunar could just be scum and I refuse to lose to him' is that pretty much correct?

i guess yeah. the main issue i have is why you as scum ever kill battle mage - that seems like a losing proposition for you any way i slice it. i didnt iso him tonight because i passed out due to

last

night, but that's what i want to do next.

[unwnd]

My biggest qualm is that If I ctrl+F you in regards to Lunar, you seemed willing to go 'well he probably gets suspected a lot/willing to give him more time.' That's paraphrased. Your thought process from D2 doesn't suggest that you're paranoid about his claim or thinking about it, because rest assured I've thought about it too.

The absolute biggest thing I get out of conversation thus far is..why wait? Why wait until we were here and just let quiet die. I know for myself I feel like shit for it but we could've easily put our heads together and decided if Lunar slanking was a worthwhile thing to pursue.

[unwnd]

I didn't full pay attention to Gypyx game after I tilt-replaced because of claim bs but I will say that you probably have a very measured scumplay, and I guess what I see more out of the..2-3 games we've been town together? Is that while yes, you practice restraint in some areas, it just seems like sometimes you will yourself into a sporadic rant and something comes of it. When I go back and look at your posts in this game, it all seems based on trajectory of the thread. You did admit around D2 you would give up that however, though if you were being

completely

honest, what was your own reason for hesitation? Or not working yourself up and being like 'no fuck this garbage' cause I definitely know that's in you

[unwnd]

ignoring it would be the expected behavior? a more green player just isn't going to pay as much attention to their partner. the only other potential partner i could see there is an outside chance of quiet, basically never you or mikul or lunar

mostly the problem is just i don't know what lunar is doing, and they've aleady been resistant toward any sort of open communication. but yo do the though exercise for me right now: if lunar is scum, who is their partner? that needs to be answered before a vote there can be considered

what's your read on mikul right now?

I think Safebet would probably be the safebet (lol) for me because I don't think the game-state has prominently changed overnight. I still think Quiet/Mikul were likely town arguing semnatics with one another and at this current point I'm not willing to suggest the idea of limming there. Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?

potentially, yes. i've some ideas.

I was pretty saddened about the self-hammer. I didn’t expect it, and I think it took away some important info. Also, just feels bad. I pushed so hard because I knew I wasn’t scum, and I really genuinely didn’t like the Folks reads on me. Mikul is going to have a field day.

Understand not pushing lunar today. P sure they have to claim roleblocked into infinity yep? So pretty much a coin toss between {cop, doc} and lunar safe, or {cop, town} and lunar scum, and scum lunar with ringer partner knows to claim that from scum roles. So no red flips today, we sort that out tmmrw is the plan? Or am I missing something.

How to scum act at the end of yesterday if they know both Norfolk and I are town?

Going to do some reading and thinking.

ordinarily self-hammers aren't really a good thing, but as we were approaching deadline and his slot was likely to be heavily suspected. in general not selfhammering is preferable

ultimately have to evaluate lunar like any other player, but i want to rethink things today rather than just slide back onto him because i think he's likely a player who gets falsely suspected a lot and he probably just gets killed overnight. worth examining who his potential partners are if he is a fakeclaiming goon, but not really a preferred vote.

Maybe I shouldn't count marathon games in town experience but whatever

[Mikul]

A quick list of votes


Uwnd


906 - Votes on safebet, and this post seems "no bussy" to me. Effort went into this as either town or scum
989 - Goes back to safebet

This is when we were actively looking for a kill last dp, and he was more than willing to off safebet


Peta


120 - early push on lunar
303 - Re vote on lunar
651 - re vote to claim

peter demands that he claims and he claims, also unwnd is in on this vote and both unvote asap cus of doctor claim



Lunar


952 - safebet and willing to lim him here in his top 2 picks.
other than that his voting has been all over the place, and he has sheeped me quite a bit.


safebet

not counting this but his push on me now is basically a vote. But MYLO and all.
396 - Lunar
he also had a vote on unwnd at some point that didnt tag here


-----


going over this what is not likely to happen

scum team of uwnd / safe
scum team of safe / me
scum team of uwnd / me
scum team of safebet / lunar

Im not putting peta and lunar and here because the vote where peta pressures him is weird. Peta says claim and he claims like right after, uwnd is also there



That leaves Uwnd / Peta (very unlikely)
safebet and peta (more likely)
Lunar and Me (Not possible because i know this is wrong , but I can see because of his sheping why people could think this)
Me and Peta (Can also see Why People would think this)
Uwnd and Lunar (still very unlikely)