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Post Post #1150 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:43 am

Post by Luca Blight »

@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
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Post Post #1151 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:41 am

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V/LA Until Friday
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Post Post #1152 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:47 am

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic
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Post Post #1153 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:48 am

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
In post 1152, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic
(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
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Post Post #1154 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:55 am

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
In post 1152, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic
In post 1153, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
In post 1152, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic
(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.

Like, OutWorldER and Lunar are both pretending to be okay with pushing Bugs to get on your good side and to set up another town lynch, but both are really trying to further their own agenda of setting up town players for future lynches, in this case myself (OutWorldER) and Trendall (Lunar).
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Post Post #1155 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:57 am

Post by Frogsterking »

I also quotes the wrong player there, I meant to quote the post where you asked Galron why he TR Bugs and Trendall, not the post where you asked Grendel why he TR Bugs. I'm not sure why Grendel TR Bugs but I would like to know!
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Post Post #1156 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:13 am

Post by Frogsterking »

Just to clarify I was inferring that GALRON believes NPOM, Luca, and I are town, and he may suspect Gamma, OutWorldER, and Lunar are the scum team, hence his town read on both Bugs and Trendall, who are being attacked by OutWorldER and Lunar, who may be using Luca's FoS on Bugs as a proxy to mount attacks on myself and Trendall, clearing Gamma's path to victory.
In post 1153, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
In post 1152, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic
(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.
In post 1154, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
In post 1152, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic
In post 1153, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
In post 1152, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic
(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.

Like, OutWorldER and Lunar are both pretending to be okay with pushing Bugs to get on your good side and to set up another town lynch, but both are really trying to further their own agenda of setting up town players for future lynches, in this case myself (OutWorldER) and Trendall (Lunar).
My posts above WERE NOT about Grendel's townread, they were about Galron's townread, and addressing these questions below:
In post 1149, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 1147, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 1146, Galron wrote:
In post 1135, Lunar Martian wrote:I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?
I think Trendell and Bugs are both town.
OK, why?
Good question.

I see no reason at all to believe Bugs is Town here. I compromised D1 but I'm reluctant to do so again when I'm very confident in my read. Bugs isn't playing like a Townie at all - they're playing like someone who knows their days are numbered and are trying to slip by under the radar for as long as possible.
In post 1146, Galron wrote:
In post 1135, Lunar Martian wrote:I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?
I think Trendell and Bugs are both town.
In this theory, the idea is for the scum team to first attempt to win together, by pushing Bugs, Trendall, then either myself or Momrangal, and failing that, to have Gamma win in the end game as deep scum with Grendel as his "mark".
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Post Post #1157 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:29 am

Post by Frogsterking »

I'm going to try and show what might be a mutual chainsaw defense here (straight from the wiki).

@Grendel@Momrangal@NPOM
I am most curious to hear your perspectives on this theory, and

@Galron
I'm curious if this is what you were inferring behind the Trendall and Bugs town reads or if you have a completely different theory altogether.
In post 1126, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1102, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1099, Trendall wrote:
In post 1097, Frogsterking wrote:Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall
Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'
In post 1101, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1097, Frogsterking wrote:I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.
Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?
Okay, so? If you have an issue with that logic, then would the case really be that “compelling”? And in vice versa, why would something like that make LM scum even when the case is compelling?
Gamma defending LM here (and himself in proxy) by attacking my logic.
In post 1056, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 551, Trendall wrote:Lunar Martian seems like town to me.
In post 552, Trendall wrote:Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.
In post 699, Trendall wrote:I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really.
In post 770, Trendall wrote:
In post 705, Frogsterking wrote:You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.
And there are fewer players (9 instead of 13 makes a huge difference), there are different players, it's an open setup, the roles are more basic, it took place at a different time in their life.....
In post 1037, Trendall wrote:
In post 1033, Lunar Martian wrote:who is there to defend me? Trendall.
Lol I won't waste my time then. Let's all get this then because there was a fair amount of support for eliminating Lunar yesterday, so we can just like, get it done now.

VOTE: Lunar Martian
In post 1047, Trendall wrote:
In post 1044, Lunar Martian wrote:It's just odd, since Trendall seemed very confident
I did two posts about you I think. One said
"Lunar Martian seems like town to me"
and the other said
"I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really"
. If you want to interpret that as somebody who is 'very confident' then there's not a lot I can do about that.
In post 1050, Trendall wrote:You reckon I 'went out of my way' by typing those two sentences?
In post 1052, Trendall wrote:Like wow I had a town read on somebody
These are all the relevant posts.
In post 1000, Frogsterking wrote:
@Trendall
Do you stand by your earlier evaluation of the Gamma slot back from this point in D1:
In post 327, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 322, Trendall wrote:
In post 299, Lunar Martian wrote:I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.
I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.
In post 323, Trendall wrote:Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.
Okay. Would you like to say why?
In post 328, Trendall wrote:Not particularly. Post #312 is the main reason but also just general vibes.
In post 329, Gamma Emerald wrote:idk what's wrong with post 312 but w/e
In post 332, Trendall wrote:Sry I'm trying to do like three things at once so haven't bothered to format this properly but check these two links for like, what I'm talking about here -

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12230155

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12298023

That's me in other games identifying some mafia people
In post 1001, Trendall wrote:Yeah sounds fair
The above quotes are Lunar Martian attacking Trendall, the only player to scum case Gamma, followed by Trendall's scum case. Lunar is perhaps attempting to use my own FoS on Trendall to hide behind both myself and Luca's reads on Trendall and Bugspray respectively.
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Post Post #1158 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:41 am

Post by Frogsterking »

My theory is not based on intuition it's based on abductive reasoning, and I came up with it by drawing a graph which I can share. I have one more thing to say about this:
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
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Post Post #1159 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:39 am

Post by Frogsterking »

Night Kill Analysis from a Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorldER scum team POV, part one: Amelie was directly targeted for the Night Kill.
In post 306, Amélie wrote:Town: Frogsterking, Gamma Emerald, Galron, bugspray
Not confident town: Momrangal
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, AGamblingPig
Scum: Grendel, NoPowerOverMe, Luca Blight

This is a full list with everyone in the game.
This is her reads list about halfway through the ISO. Things look sunny for Gamma here with Amelie.
In post 516, Amélie wrote:
In post 471, Momrangal wrote:VOTE: OWER

well, ok. Your alignment should be telling after this
Really dislike this right here.
In post 474, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 460, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 437, Luca Blight wrote:There’s no reason or analysis behind any of your points.

What happened to Gamma or I being scum?

Why do you prefer a Trendall elim to Bugs? Do you TR Bugs?
I thought either you or Gamma was scum based on the way you both were trying to paint bugspray as scum for really odd reasons. Now I'm thinking you are scum and just latching onto Gamma's strange push.

I don't really know if bugs is Town, but I don't think Trendall is aorn. I still don't understand why people are voting bugs and no one has even attempted to explain it afaict.
Your last line is ironic. I’ve explained my Bugs SR way more than you’ve explained anything this game.

I said I’ve had success reading Bugs as both alignments in the past, and I can see based on their behavior this game, and for the reasons I outlined, that they are clearly scum!Bugs this game. Bugs themselves didn’t challenge my reasoning regarding this, so who are you to imply it isn’t valid?

It seems to me that all your reads have an agenda behind them; you’re not sorting in a natural way.
"I'm not scum. You are!"
My scum read on Luca definitely stands.
In post 479, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 468, Momrangal wrote:
In post 463, NoPowerOverMe wrote:
In post 458, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 456, NoPowerOverMe wrote:Ok, I was just making sure that the claim was bs like I thought it was.

The only people that have an issue with it are those outside the block.
Who are the five people in it?
Me
Galron
Grendal
Frog
Gamma
Frog is still pushing you as scum here, but I do agree. The pushes against you are not only crappy as fuck but they are targeted at the largest voice within the block and someone who, if left alive could win us the game

I’m surprised you don’t think the intensity of the NPOM wagon could be due to the fact that scum have been heavily wagoned themselves. To me it looks like a deliberate counter-wagon.
I quoted the wrong thing. But see the momrangal quote inside. It is really nasty if you ask me.
In post 482, Gamma Emerald wrote:That is an interesting prospect, but not one I’m sure is worth fully entertaining rn. I myself have a hit-or-miss radar when it comes to wagonomics, but I’ll offer that I feel like I’m starting to hit more than miss these days.
Starting to dislike gamma. Im about to swap Gamma and NoPowerOverMe.
In post 493, Grendel wrote:Gamma is the one i think i trust least out of that group. He's challenging to get a read on in general.
I do agree with this currently. I'll be lifting this to a null for a while.
In post 495, NoPowerOverMe wrote:I could see replacing Galron with Amelie if the rest of the bloc is up to it.
Didn't you think I was scum just like one day ago?
Amelie starts to dislike Gamma here, a little over halfway through her ISO, and proceeds to take a dump on the slot for the rest of D1 pretty much, over time putting together a fairly solid scum case against Gamma, for VERY similar things pointed out by Trendall.
In post 517, Amélie wrote:Town: Frogsterking, Galron, bugspray, NoPowerOverMe
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, AGamblingPig, Grendel,
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Luca Blight, Momrangal

I'm actually considering lifting Luca Blight because of his interactions with my scum reads being a good look but I'm going to hold off on that for a bit.
In post 564, Amélie wrote:
In post 527, Gamma Emerald wrote:Amelie what is your general process for forming reads?
I don't honestly know. I think I'm too new for me to have an established way to sort. I just try to the best of my ability to find scum and that's it.
In post 537, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 37, bugspray wrote:Frogster why is your ocean test better than rvs and why didn't you link us all the same one and also post your results? NPOM and Galren might be beside one another in this wagon and I'm here to back them up
This is the post that made me gut read bugs as town at the beginning of the game. I believe it appeared town to me because I took his question as an
implication
he was thinking about scum hunting. The rest of his posts since then have looked pretty weak.

At this point I'm the most open to eliminating Lunar. Before the end of D1 I would like to see what can be done about sorting the remaining slots.

Right now I've got
Townbloc:
Gamma, Grendel, Galron, NPOM, myself
Town:
Luca, Amelie, momrangal
Null:
Trendall
Scum:
Lunar and some combination of the last few
I hate your reads a decent amount. There are way too many town reads.
In post 548, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: lunar martian
Might as well
I hate this vote. You never really scum read Lunar Martian until recently.
In post 552, Trendall wrote:Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.
I agree. Both are in my nulls.
In post 554, Galron wrote:I"m good with executing Lunar Martian, especially after that last paranoid post where he though Luca was talking about him. That sounds like a caught (and not paranoid town) maf.
I have a null on Lunar Martian currently and am not really willing to vote them. On top of that this wagon built up way too fast. This is more fitting of the "scum trying hard to form a counterwagon" than NnoPowerOverMe's wagon.
In post 555, bugspray wrote:sounds good VOTE: lunar martian
that's l-1
I hate this vote as well. I really dislike this wagon. It built up too fast and out of basically nowhere. I don't support it at all.
In post 560, bugspray wrote: looks like it's coming from scum!luca who KNOWS that it's going to flip red and is trying to make it look like i'm the one who is actually going to bus
Disagree.

The last pages have been super annoying to read for me. I feel like everyone is being super scummy regarding this new wagon on Lunar.
In post 717, Amélie wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 628, Gamma Emerald wrote:wdym site meta WIFOM?
Also Luca’s slow burn to hammering is intriguing.
I don't really see why you say this.
If Luca had immediately hammered, everyone would say its scummy for hammering that fast.
If Luca stalls, everyone says he's stalling and that stalling is scummy.
No matter what Luca does here, he's going to probably look bad assuming that Lunar Martian is town of course.
In post 638, Grendel wrote:*@all currently here*

Do you think that Luca is a player that 1v1's town as scum here in this context?

I think most scum hammers more more like a "swoop" then a "slow burn" (as Gamma called it)
He never hammered. He just disappeared is all.
In post 676, Grendel wrote:I think of the players active in this engagement Nopower actually looks worse then the rest via him negging Lunar from the sidling's. I dont think its beyond his town game to do something like this as he loves messing with people and giving out lots of witty comebacks as a signiture part of his style. (I wanted to do a trademark symbol over "witty comebacks" but idk how lol)

Gamma looks pretty good in his approtch to all this and i feel he came to a similar conclusion I had come to before I fully came to it.

Luca looks frustrated. I think the question is if its more liekly to come from town or scum. I WANT to say it comes from town but im not sure yet. I need to think more on it. (Hence me asking)

Lunar Im still sorting rn

It would be great if all are town but idk just.
I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.
In post 683, Grendel wrote:the more i think about the more i feel like Luca could have, (as scum), acted really offended and hammer before Gamma came out and unvoted. Like Luca, and Lunar where going back and forth a couple hours. That plenty of time to justify a rage hammer. So this means Luca is probably town here. Good Good.
No. I don't agree and my scum team guess of Luca/Grendel is just solidifying more and more for me.
In post 698, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.

VOTE: Trendall
I thought your top scum read was Luca Blight?
Amelie calls Gamma out three times in a row
In post 719, Amélie wrote:My current solve: Luca Blight, Momrangal, Grendel.
Mysteriously Gamma disappears from this solve, though it's clear she's not a fan of this slot, and has shown a willingness to rethink her position on Luca but not Gamma.

I think Luca and Grendel are both helpful to the scumteam in my theory because Luca is pushing Bugspray and Grendel can be the mark for Gamma. The fact that Amelie is more vocal overall about her position on Grendel and Luca, while calling Gamma out for things that could be potential scum tells, is a sign she could be a "safe" kill for Gamma because unless someone does Night Kill Analysis we will all be more likely to remember her position on Grendel and Luca but not on Gamma.
In post 777, Amélie wrote:
In post 744, Gamma Emerald wrote:Amelie's takes bother the crap out of me
Amelie what do you tend to look for when reading people? I asked you a similar question earlier but I don't recall an answer.
You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?
I did answer the question and if you cannot find it, I can quote it for you later. I have to get to work in a few minutes.
In post 747, Frogsterking wrote:I was just working on a post pointing out how our intuition can manifest itself as anger, and Luca and I have both been triggered by Lunar.

I was about to point out that Amelie and Grendel have both been defending Lunar and arguably gaslighting.

Then I saw your post, and the fact that you're now being triggered by Amelie is a sign to me she needs to be resorted.
I do not understand this thought process at all.
In post 760, Frogsterking wrote:Based on her test and her behavior I believe Amelie is extraordinarily high in this subtrait of openness:

"Liberalism. Psychological liberalism refers to a readiness to challenge authority, convention, and traditional values. In its most extreme form, psychological liberalism can even represent outright hostility toward rules, sympathy for law-breakers, and love of ambiguity, chaos, and disorder. Psychological conservatives prefer the security and stability brought by conformity to tradition. Psychological liberalism and conservatism are not identical to political affiliation, but certainly incline individuals toward certain political parties. Your level of liberalism is $flev[18]. "

http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/5 ... tions.html

I seem to be thinking this alone wouldn't cause you distaste because you also seem very liberal, Gamma.

I'm looking at the second half of Amelie's questionnaire with a little twinkle in my eye now.
Why the twinkle? I'm quite curious.
In post 768, Galron wrote:I don't think game solving on Day 1 is all that helpful. It's more distracting than anything. Let's get an elimination and a night under our belts and then assess where we're at.
I do quite agree with this but my main reason is just because I don't agree so that's quite unfair of me.
In post 772, ORAM wrote:UNVOTE:

Was following this game before replacing in, so that's cool. Maybe I'm weird, but I don't think Lunar is especially likely to be scum. The wagon on them seems to be more motivated by them not getting along well with people here than by them being scummy. I don't see scum so blatantly drawing attention to themselves, especially if they have a nervous personality. I don't like the wagon either. Galron and Bugspray's votes both feel like "well here's a wagon, might as well vote it," and then there's frogster. I don't like how they've been convinced Lunar is scum since Lunar's first post and haven't wavered since, even as they reevaluate every other slot. It all feels like an inertia wagon.

I'm not
completely
sold on Bugspray being scum either, but I like their wagon comp a lot better. I think NPOM and Luca are town. Gamma too, with the caveat that I've read a lot of games he's been in and liked his posting regardless of alignment. OutWorldER is a big ??? because so few posts, but their vote here feels... fine? I kinda like it, but can't find the words to say why. My only doubts are because I get the feeling that the inconsistencies in their thought process and read progression might actually just be their personality.

Why the hell did this post take me like 2 hours to write, what the hell. I don't really have a strong impression on Grendel, Trendall, Mom, or Amélie, and will work on them next time.

@Luca (and anyone else with Bugs meta): Do you think bugs' scummy-looking behavior could be their personality, or am I off base?

@Frogster: Do you want me to do that OCEAN thing? What do you think the odds are that Lunar is town with unusual temperament versus pretty obvious scum? Also, can you walk me through the progression there? It's not super clear where and why they became your most consistent scumread.
Wow, I really am not sure what to make of this post. I'll have to give it some time.

Alright, Im caught up and now I have to get ready for work.
Calls Gamma out for moving his reads list around in a way that could potentially be reactive to Amelie, preparing for her to push against him in the future.
In post 849, Amélie wrote:Town: bugspray, Momrangal, ORAM
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, Frogsterking, NoPowerOverMe, Galron
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Luca Blight, Lunar Martian, Grendel
At the end of the day Amelie does include Gamma in her reads list, along with Luca, Lunar (who she says is only there as a compromise, maybe why she included him twice as a null read) and Grendel.

For the reasons I said earlier, Amelie's FoS on Luca and Grendel could be problematic for a Lunar, OutWorldER, and Gamma scum team, because they can use Grendel as a mark for Gamma to win the three-way and use Luca's push against Bugs to survive another mislynch, perhaps even setting Luca up in the process.

The fact that she is also scum reading Gamma and town reads both Momrangal and Bugs, both potential targets for a mis lynch, makes her even more problematic.

Amelie even shows hesitation about her scumread on Grendel and Luca, but not Gamma. EoD she said in response to me she is considering her reads on Grendel to be a potential playstyle clash, and that it's literally "making her hesitate", and she does not say the same about Gamma. I pointed out earlier in this post where she considered lifting Luca because of his interactions with her other scum reads.

I did not include her reads on OutWorldER in this post, but she did not have warm feelings, similar to Lunar.

So she is basically doing the opposite of what a Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorldER scum team would want, she is mixed on both of the obvscum and demonstrates a willingness to compromise lynch at least one of them, she FoSes the deep scum, and FoSes two town players that may be useful to the scum team, but seems as though she may even hammer Gamma over them given the choice. Even more, she is town reading Momrangal and Bugspray,two big targets for a mislynch.

Therefore, from a Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorlder's perspective, Amelie is the perfect target for a night kill because she stands directly in their way and at first-glance her death is more incriminating of Grendel and Luca. It makes far more sense Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorldER would target her over me, since I could be another potential mark for Gamma in the three way, even bussing his partners if he needs to, and my death would obviously incriminate Lunar and OutWorldER and not really further either of their win conditions (winning with the whole scum team alive or winning with Gamma in the three-way.)
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Post Post #1160 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:53 am

Post by Frogsterking »

Night Kill Analysis from a Gamma, OutWorldER, and Lunar POV part two: Galron was the target as the scum PR read and for his call to investigate OutWorldER EoD 1.

Not as much to say here, OutWorldER sees Galron's call to action for an OutWorldER investigation, someone says they think Galron is the investigator, they send in Galron as the Night Kill. Amelie looks in the hood chat, decides her town reads Momrangal and Bugspray are safe from the Night Kill, and decides to save the PR.

I think the key difference between who the NK target incriminates, is if you believe Amelie protected Galron then it mainly incriminates OutWorldER and any individuals who were in the hood chat D1, and does not really incriminate Lunar or Gamma as the partners. If you believe Amelie was the target of the NK then I believe it's mainly incriminating Gamma and lends credence to this theory as a whole. I think both Galron or Amelie being targeted are equally likely and I want to listen to everyone's opinions on this theory.
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Post Post #1161 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:05 am

Post by Galron »

I'm suspicious of the people who want to get rid of Bugs, who is a conduit to the hood, but not Gamma. It wasn't until recently that Gamma even shared anything from the hood, if I recall correctly.
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Post Post #1162 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:10 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
I'm inclined to believe that the neighborhood is all town. I'll explain more when i get i get off work later.

-/-/-/-/-

*@Frogstrking*

Its rare that I see a live chainsaw defense. Im not really suspecting Gamma as scum. Lunar pushing a wagon I was overtly interested in yesterday, (trendell), is interesting tho.
but why?

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Post Post #1163 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:12 am

Post by Frogsterking »

Right now I see two competing theories:

1) Luca, OutWorldER and Lunar are town, Bugs is obvscum possibly along with Trendall and there are one or more deep scum.

2) Galron, Trendall and Bugs are town, Lunar and OutWorldER are obvscum and there is one deep scum who in this scenario I propose as Gamma.
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Post Post #1164 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:15 am

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 1162, Grendel wrote:
In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
I'm inclined to believe that the neighborhood is all town. I'll explain more when i get i get off work later.

-/-/-/-/-

*@Frogstrking*

Its rare that I see a live chainsaw defense. Im not really suspecting Gamma as scum. Lunar pushing a wagon I was overtly interested in yesterday, (trendell), is interesting tho.
You think that Lunar maybe is trying to hide behind you? Do you remember giving Lunar any signs yesterday you might be willing to cover them?
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Post Post #1165 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:22 am

Post by Frogsterking »

In post 1161, Galron wrote:I'm suspicious of the people who want to get rid of Bugs, who is a conduit to the hood, but not Gamma. It wasn't until recently that Gamma even shared anything from the hood, if I recall correctly.
So you townread Trendall because he hasn't voted Bugs yet?
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Post Post #1166 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:29 am

Post by Frogsterking »

@Grendel
Do you get any tells from this interaction?
In post 1086, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 1070, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don’t like calling it a recruit
That sounds like someone picked us out to join the hood, when it was just RNG that enabled that
Really? What's the randomness involved?
In post 1087, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 1073, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1069, Luca Blight wrote:I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.
I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone
has to be
scum in it
And yet it seems likely that someone is. You trying to encourage us not to think so makes me question you. A few Gamma posts recently have really made me question my thinking about Gamma.
In post 1088, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 1073, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1069, Luca Blight wrote:I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.
I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone
has to be
scum in it
And yet it seems likely that someone is. You trying to encourage us not to think so makes me question you. A few Gamma posts recently have really made me question my thinking about Gamma.
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Post Post #1167 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:36 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

Frogster, I thought you were going to rethink and not just tunnel me anymore.
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Post Post #1168 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:42 am

Post by Trendall »

In post 1163, Frogsterking wrote:Right now I see two competing theories:

1) Luca, OutWorldER and Lunar are town, Bugs is obvscum possibly along with Trendall and there are one or more deep scum.

2) Galron, Trendall and Bugs are town, Lunar and OutWorldER are obvscum and there is one deep scum who in this scenario I propose as Gamma.
I don't see how in one possibility one person can be 'obvious' and in another possibility the same person can be town. And 'obvscum possibly' is like...
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Post Post #1169 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:45 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 1168, Trendall wrote:
In post 1163, Frogsterking wrote:Right now I see two competing theories:

1) Luca, OutWorldER and Lunar are town, Bugs is obvscum possibly along with Trendall and there are one or more deep scum.

2) Galron, Trendall and Bugs are town, Lunar and OutWorldER are obvscum and there is one deep scum who in this scenario I propose as Gamma.
I don't see how in one possibility one person can be 'obvious' and in another possibility the same person can be town. And 'obvscum possibly' is like...
That's a strange thing to latch onto. Clearly it's two competing and mutually exclusive theories. Why are you trying to discredit Frogster so consistently?
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Post Post #1170 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:46 am

Post by Trendall »

Something's either obvious or it isn't
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Post Post #1171 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:46 am

Post by NoPowerOverMe »

@Frog so who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #1172 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:47 am

Post by Trendall »

And if something is 'obvious' then that should supersede the different theories and apply across all of them.
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Post Post #1173 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:51 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 1172, Trendall wrote:And if something is 'obvious' then that should supersede the different theories and apply across all of them.
The implication was that given A, B becomes obvious. But A isn't known to be true.
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Post Post #1174 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:55 am

Post by Trendall »

If something's relying on A to be true before it becomes evidently true itself then that's hardly 'obvious'.
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