Micro 991: Names on the List [game over!]

[Ahsoka]

I find it odd you were the main person pushing to publish the list earlier.

K did i say i wasnt going to hammer? Are you trolling

This was more of a general thing. I believe I actually already mentioned this prior to right now.

I could be wrong, though, but I did think it.

useless filler post

It was just a part 1.

[DkKoba]

k still useless

[Datisi]

Vote count 2.final

with 8 votes in play, it took 5 to make a decision. day 2 ended.

execution

Amélie [1]:

Not_Mafia

Gimli son of Glóin [1]:

Infinity 324

Publish the List! [5]:

Raya36, clidd, Gimli son of Glóin, Ahsoka, DkKoba

[HAMMER]

Not Voting [1]:

Amélie

game state

Doom Counter

is currently at

zero

.
~ With

3

Mafia alive, the Town will be endgamed once they are brought down to

3

members.

Previously published lists:
~ none

mod notes

~ beep

[Datisi]

day two ends

Datisi opens the envelope.

"The names

Infinity 324

,

Ahsoka

,

Not_Mafia

,

Gimli son of Glóin

, and

Amélie

contain

3 Town

and

2 Mafia

."

A bell tolls in the distance.

Doom Counter

has increased by one.

The sun sets, it is now Night 2. Sunrise immediately.

[Datisi]

day three starts

The Night seems rather short. You do not get enough sleep.

The sun rises, it is now Day 3.

[Datisi]

Vote count 3.00

with 8 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-01-15 14:40:00).

execution

Not Voting [8]:

DkKoba, clidd, Infinity 324, Ahsoka, Not_Mafia, Raya36, Gimli son of Glóin, Amélie

game state

Doom Counter

is currently at

one

.
~ With

3

Mafia alive, the Town will be endgamed once they are brought down to

4

members.

Previously published lists:
~

[Infinity 324, Ahsoka, Not_Mafia, Gimli son of Glóin, Amélie]

contain 3 Town and 2 Mafia

mod notes

~ beep

[Infinity 324]

Hmm what a surprise my solve is still possible now

Can we just elim clidd?

[Ahsoka]

Infinity 324, Ahsoka, Not_Mafia, Gimli son of Glóin, Amélie - 2

Raya, Dkkoba, Clidd - 1

Essentially doing what I did for the examples posted earlier

Not Mafia/Amelie + Infinity/Gimli + Dkkoba/Clid/Raya

[Ahsoka]

Hmm what a surprise my solve is still possible now

Can we just elim clidd?

How is this something that's said with Dkkoba's last page and a half?

[Infinity 324]

What does that have to do with anything

[clidd]

Because Infinity is scum.

It's Infinity + NM both scum in the list.

And Dk outside.

[Infinity 324]

I agree with koba that when push came to shove, gimli put up surprisingly little resistance to publishing despite believing (correctly) that doing so was gamethrowing

[Ahsoka]

Hmm what a surprise my solve is still possible now

Can we just elim clidd?

This looks like a partner helping Dkkoba's position in this game because of Dkkoba/Clidd having 1 scum in them.

Dkkoba's posting is indicative of scum who didn't want the list published, but had to anyways. There is no reason for Dkkoba who was the one pushing the list early in the day to be essentially needing to be pushed into the list publish. Every single thing Dkkoba was shading Gimli for coming out of nowhere had already been explained.

My guesses are Gimli/Clidd are the misfade plays for scum.

Dkkoba is going to try and open up me as well here, they were setting themselves up to do that before they voted to publish the list.

[Ahsoka]

What does that have to do with anything

it literally has to do with everything.

There is absolutely zero reason you should have been pushing Clidd that way with Dkkoba's play right there.

[Gimli son of Glóin]

Because Infinity is scum.

It's Infinity + NM both scum in the list.

And Dk outside.

that's my solve as well. scum wanted to play fast and became rather obvious as a result. now the question is which one of these 3 we wanna elim first. I need coffee to figure this out.

[Ahsoka]

Spoiler:

It does feel like clidd's more nuanced reads considering POE are only coming because he was hardpressed to do them.

Ahsoka, if you feel that strongly about clidd near the end of the day, I think I'll join you. Right now I'm really just confused though. that 180 degree read putting both of us in his towncore is really shameless if he is scum.

pedit: good stuff raya. I think you're missing the point that our 3/8 comes with a 3/7 next gameday if we miss, and we don't have that opportunity with the list. I broke down the math somewhere in this game.

Hullo! Not much time today, let's just get to it.

I'll pocket you again Gimli, if you give me more time.

The difference is that I'm town doing this.

I'm not in a hurry, but you made it hard for me if you're town here. I had already cleared you d1 and was unwilling to reconsiderate. At least you're townreading the towncore, which is the minimum I expect from you this gameday, and it was clumsy enough that it can come from town.

Idk what to think about Amélie.

Would like thoughts on her.

I've read her catchup already and I just don't think it's too AI either way. She needs more time in the thread so we can judge imo.

We can also stick with a plan of solving with town!Clidd theory and then consolidating into a mislim on me at the end of the day to deliver the correct information about the influence of my alignment on reads/affiliations/etc.

No.

I'm wondering if you all just want the list because you're eager to get new information no matter the cost, but be aware that this is something the mafia also probably wants.

I'm wondering if you all just want the list because you're eager to get new information no matter the cost, but be aware that this is something the mafia also probably wants.

I was thinking about mafia wanting the list or not and I don't think there's been enough of a push for it for them to want it that bad? It's possible they're worried about the list and how to slots are turning out D2. Also most likely in the same way there's strong pros and cons of both for town, I believe there are pros and cons of both for scum too. I still think overall it's to town's advantage to publish the list though.
And not to be pushy about this but I really think we should be talking about this more. There are clearly 2 very different outlooks on publishing the list and we need to figure out what's best for town soon. We have just under 6 days and if we do choose to publish the list we need time to consider it and reevaluate.

now that its over I'd like to compare my vote on Lostego as similar to my vote on TGP in this BoonSkiies game here: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12441568

I vote and then scum come in and quickhammer, I am not happy at this point as I was still gathering info. this is the same vibe i had with lostego

Why are you defending yourself unprompted?

Raya, I'm sorry if this comes out a little blunt but I have given the exact reason why using the doomcounter today is throwing the game and so far I read nothing but wishful thinking from you. If you wanna talk honestly about it, then please give me a PRACTICAL example of how the list can make us hit town TODAY because that's what we're going to need in order not to lose. Think, for instance, of the likelihood we're flipping NM this gameday and how the list would help either showing he is town or POEing him down as mafia assuredly. can the list do that? otherwise this is my last thought about the list:

let me break the math down for you

say we use the doomcounter and elim in the 2/5 list. if we do so randomly, the odds of hitting scum are 40%. 60% of the time we simply lose the game.

say we don't use the doomcounter and eliminate randomly in a 3/8. the odds of hitting scum are 37,5%, as opposed to the 40% with the list, and if we don't elim scum it we'll have a 3/7 chance next day, which is a 42,8% chance. the odds of randomly hitting scum here at least once in two shots is 68% (I think). your opinion here is so bad.

If you wanna argue in favour of the list, you have to show how my math is less important than the list.

Amélie with that gimli tunnel and now it's amélie, koba, infinity and NM scumreading me this gameday. Hopefully that's at least 2/3 scum, and there's a chance amélie is just having a hard time with her reads so this is fine.

pedit: neither are we 'shooting blind' by eliminating without the list. what I used was math, the best way math can be applied. all you in favour of the list have given me is that you wanna use the list.

@koba: if NM is town we're gonna lose by using the list, because we're going to just go for the compromise. if he flips mafia the game will get easier, sure, but we can flip mafia!NM today and then use the fucking list on d4 if we want to all the same.

@amélie: I'll talk about your catch up with you tomorrow, I wanna post good thoughts about it and now I'm too rushed to do that.

It's wrong because nothing justifies losing if our guess is wrong. But you know what, I get it. I don't wanna play d3 either if NM is town anyway.

I just did a quick skim of the end of the ISO, and each of these are Gimli going against the List.

[Infinity 324]

What does that have to do with anything

it literally has to do with everything.

There is absolutely zero reason you should have been pushing Clidd that way with Dkkoba's play right there.

The idea that you think I should do a 180 on my koba read for bringing up an (imo) reasonable point is beyond absurd.

[Ahsoka]

What does that have to do with anything

it literally has to do with everything.

There is absolutely zero reason you should have been pushing Clidd that way with Dkkoba's play right there.

The idea that you think I should do a 180 on my koba read for bringing up an (imo) reasonable point is beyond absurd.

Well, that's the exact thing.

I hard disagree that it's a reasonable point.

I think it's fine to bring up, but when you actually look at what was posted, Gimli's been against the list the entire time.

The actual reason that should be pushed is Gimli was fighting against it, so when it passed, it would look good because they were against it.

I just don't understand the thought process.

Gimli was like the only person going against publishing the list, besides Not Mafia.

[Ahsoka]

Like I was talking to Gimli about publishing the list, and I eased away from it for a bit specifically because he was against it, and I was fine playing mountainous for a bit, but then we got to a spot where it was circular wifom.

I feel like Raya and I spent a decent amount of time convincing Gimli, and you guys are acting like it was nothing.

[Ahsoka]

It also makes sense why Dkkoba was trying to shut down publishing the list when they made the "if you guys aren't going to publish the list, we don't need to talk about it" when we were literally doing it because we were trying to publish the list, but Gimli was against it.

[Ahsoka]

Like how is scum ever Clidd over Dkkoba here?

[Infinity 324]

I agree with koba that when push came to shove, gimli put up surprisingly little resistance to publishing despite believing (correctly) that doing so was gamethrowing

Like, I was also against publishing and I wanted to give it more time to discuss. But gimli didn't really give it that time and went pretty quickly to "stfu and publish". It's more of a timing/tone thing than anything, and I was gonna bring up the same poi t but didn't know how to word it.

PEdit: koba wasn't trying to shut don't the list, they were arguing gimli was scum

[Ahsoka]

I agree with koba that when push came to shove, gimli put up surprisingly little resistance to publishing despite believing (correctly) that doing so was gamethrowing

Like, I was also against publishing and I wanted to give it more time to discuss. But gimli didn't really give it that time and went pretty quickly to "stfu and publish". It's more of a timing/tone thing than anything, and I was gonna bring up the same poi t but didn't know how to word it.

PEdit: koba wasn't trying to shut don't the list, they were arguing gimli was scum

They were arguing a flawed case, and I was explaining to Dkkoba why what they were saying was untrue, and they came and said I was twisting their words when they were specifically the one incorrect.

[Ahsoka]

Spoiler:

It does feel like clidd's more nuanced reads considering POE are only coming because he was hardpressed to do them.

Ahsoka, if you feel that strongly about clidd near the end of the day, I think I'll join you. Right now I'm really just confused though. that 180 degree read putting both of us in his towncore is really shameless if he is scum.

pedit: good stuff raya. I think you're missing the point that our 3/8 comes with a 3/7 next gameday if we miss, and we don't have that opportunity with the list. I broke down the math somewhere in this game.

Hullo! Not much time today, let's just get to it.

I'll pocket you again Gimli, if you give me more time.

The difference is that I'm town doing this.

I'm not in a hurry, but you made it hard for me if you're town here. I had already cleared you d1 and was unwilling to reconsiderate. At least you're townreading the towncore, which is the minimum I expect from you this gameday, and it was clumsy enough that it can come from town.

Idk what to think about Amélie.

Would like thoughts on her.

I've read her catchup already and I just don't think it's too AI either way. She needs more time in the thread so we can judge imo.

We can also stick with a plan of solving with town!Clidd theory and then consolidating into a mislim on me at the end of the day to deliver the correct information about the influence of my alignment on reads/affiliations/etc.

No.

I'm wondering if you all just want the list because you're eager to get new information no matter the cost, but be aware that this is something the mafia also probably wants.

I'm wondering if you all just want the list because you're eager to get new information no matter the cost, but be aware that this is something the mafia also probably wants.

I was thinking about mafia wanting the list or not and I don't think there's been enough of a push for it for them to want it that bad? It's possible they're worried about the list and how to slots are turning out D2. Also most likely in the same way there's strong pros and cons of both for town, I believe there are pros and cons of both for scum too. I still think overall it's to town's advantage to publish the list though.
And not to be pushy about this but I really think we should be talking about this more. There are clearly 2 very different outlooks on publishing the list and we need to figure out what's best for town soon. We have just under 6 days and if we do choose to publish the list we need time to consider it and reevaluate.

now that its over I'd like to compare my vote on Lostego as similar to my vote on TGP in this BoonSkiies game here: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12441568

I vote and then scum come in and quickhammer, I am not happy at this point as I was still gathering info. this is the same vibe i had with lostego

Why are you defending yourself unprompted?

Raya, I'm sorry if this comes out a little blunt but I have given the exact reason why using the doomcounter today is throwing the game and so far I read nothing but wishful thinking from you. If you wanna talk honestly about it, then please give me a PRACTICAL example of how the list can make us hit town TODAY because that's what we're going to need in order not to lose. Think, for instance, of the likelihood we're flipping NM this gameday and how the list would help either showing he is town or POEing him down as mafia assuredly. can the list do that? otherwise this is my last thought about the list:

let me break the math down for you

say we use the doomcounter and elim in the 2/5 list. if we do so randomly, the odds of hitting scum are 40%. 60% of the time we simply lose the game.

say we don't use the doomcounter and eliminate randomly in a 3/8. the odds of hitting scum are 37,5%, as opposed to the 40% with the list, and if we don't elim scum it we'll have a 3/7 chance next day, which is a 42,8% chance. the odds of randomly hitting scum here at least once in two shots is 68% (I think). your opinion here is so bad.

If you wanna argue in favour of the list, you have to show how my math is less important than the list.

Amélie with that gimli tunnel and now it's amélie, koba, infinity and NM scumreading me this gameday. Hopefully that's at least 2/3 scum, and there's a chance amélie is just having a hard time with her reads so this is fine.

pedit: neither are we 'shooting blind' by eliminating without the list. what I used was math, the best way math can be applied. all you in favour of the list have given me is that you wanna use the list.

@koba: if NM is town we're gonna lose by using the list, because we're going to just go for the compromise. if he flips mafia the game will get easier, sure, but we can flip mafia!NM today and then use the fucking list on d4 if we want to all the same.

@amélie: I'll talk about your catch up with you tomorrow, I wanna post good thoughts about it and now I'm too rushed to do that.

It's wrong because nothing justifies losing if our guess is wrong. But you know what, I get it. I don't wanna play d3 either if NM is town anyway.

I just did a quick skim of the end of the ISO, and each of these are Gimli going against the List.

Like Dkkoba's reasoning is factually incorrect and this proves that.

[Ahsoka]

If we can agree on 4 townreads, the list would have to look like this:

2 UTRs
1 other town
2 scum

Leaving:
2 UTRs
1 scum

Which actually guarantees hitting scum if we elim outside the list. So publishing the list would be very good in that scenario, and

I think it's still beneficial if we can agree on 3 townreads.

I just don't think that's possible.

PEdit: you and amelie

Awesome. Infinity said if there's an agreeance on 3 town, then it's beneficial. We have that. He's not in it, but we do have it.

@Infinity - you specifically said this.

Also, if you were against publishing the list, why weren't you bringing this up when Raya, Gimli, and I spent a good amount of time going over it.

Why did Dkkoba wait until after we had already decided to publish the list to bring that Gimli point up?