Mini Normal 2185 | EFoBBBiO | Game Over!

[joqiza]

Reading this game has made me realize how deeply reliant I've become on meta. I play in a pretty insular community where I generally know around ~90% of people at the table... when you don't know anyone in the p-list, gauging players is a bit more difficult. Refreshing, though, in a way.

Not quite done catching up, but should have time to do so over the weekend.

[Grendel]

Starting to suspect a Grendel/Luca team.

i mean... I outted a mafia. So... im probably getting night killed tonight lol.

Who first brought up the idea that Amelie wasn't the NK target? I've seen it from Frogster and Luca. I think at least one other person. In my experience it's rare that the shot is deflected elsewhere. I don't know how this theory got started, but I'm suspicious.

It was me.

Amelie was a BG. The whole purpose of her role is taking the NK for somebody else. If there where a situation where a player would be an unintended target of a NK it would be the BG covering the intended target. Plus how does Amelie even make sense as an intended NK given her postion in the gamestate? Conf!scum Momrangual was one of Amilie's strongest Town reads.

[Luca Blight]

It seems to me that Galron has gone out of his way to defend Bugs/deflect attention away from them on a few occasions.

This is true. I've defended Bugs. I think he's town.

That was shade out of nowhere with no follow-up from Luca.

It wasn’t out nowhere, it was based on Bugs being scum.

I’ve only skimmed the recent developments and will follow-up more when I have time.

[Datisi]

Votecount 2.7

Momrangal(5)

~ Grendel(33), joqiza(30), Frogsterking(89), OutWorldER(12), Lunar Martian(54)

bugspray(2)

~ Luca Blight(61), Gamma Emerald(32)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Momrangal(14)

Frogsterking(1)

~ Trendall(55)


Not Voting (2): bugspray(16), Galron(13)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-13 20:42:20)

FLAVOR

frame 21 out of 19035

[Luca Blight]

VOTE: Momrangal

[Luca Blight]

Couldn’t resist.

[Datisi]

Replacing Trendall.

As a reminder, publicly discussing your replace-out and posting in the game after you've replaced out is against the site rules. If you wish to replace out, PM the game moderator(s).

[Momrangal]

[Datisi]

Votecount 2.Eliminate

Momrangal(6)

~ Grendel(33), joqiza(30), Frogsterking(89), OutWorldER(12), Lunar Martian(54), Luca Blight(63)

-- HAMMER

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Momrangal(15)

Frogsterking(1)

~ Trendall(55)

bugspray(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(32)


Not Voting (3): bugspray(16), Galron(13), Momrangal(0)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-13 20:42:20)

MOD REMINDERS

~ i didn't forget that with 11 alive, it takes 6 for majority and i definitely didn't not realize that was a hammer and left the thread open like a dumbass
~ as i only have access to the first ~50 frames, i cannot roll a 1d19035 for a random frame. apologies for the inconvenience.

FLAVOR

frame 22 out of 19035

[Datisi]

Momrangal has been eliminated! She was a:

Spoiler:

Mafia Informed

[/spoiler]

Deadline for Night 2 is paused until a replacement for Trendall is found.

Please PM your Night actions to both GeorgeBailey and Datisi.

[Datisi]

ejjinami replaces Trendall.

Deadline for Night actions: (expired on 2021-01-12 17:38:45).

[GeorgeBailey]

Grendel has been killed last night! He was a:

Spoiler:

town traffic analyst

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 3.1

Not Voting (9): ejjinami(0), bugspray(0), OutWorldER(0), Gamma Emerald(0), Galron(0), Lunar Martian(0), joqiza(0), Frogsterking(0), Luca Blight(0)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-22 18:03:48)

MOD REMINDERS

1d19036 = 11008

FLAVOR

frame 11008 out of 19035

[ejjinami]

Grendel has been killed last night! He was a:

Spoiler:

town traffic analyst

hahahahhahahah
his bait worked?

I wasn’t expecting that

good job man!

welp, that changes my suspicions a bit

[ejjinami]

what’s a traffic analyst btw?

[ejjinami]

anyway, hi!
I’m fully caught up, just didn’t finish making my reads “presentable”. They’re still an unreadable bundle of my notes

VOTE: luca
100% scum.

that’s all I’m gonna say for now, I’ll explain it soon

[Frogsterking]

I believe that the traffic analyst can see whether or not someone is in a hood.

I have a new theory by the way, I think Lunar Martian might be a traitor and Momrangel's Informed ability was that she was aware of their identity. I found some comments between Momrangel and Bugs that looked like they were trying to indicate to Lunar their alignment.

[Frogsterking]

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

[ejjinami]

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hard

honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much

I’m working on my notes rn

btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?

[ejjinami]

Townie

[galron]
[frogster, lunar]
[NoPowerOverMe]
[OWE, bug*, gamma]
[Luca]

scummy

*=only there if luca flips town. 1000% town if luca flips scum

frogster

- Had a very genuine start. Asking for OCEAN results is NAI in itself but getting so agitated and trying to read people based on it for sooo long strongly hints to him genuinely wanting to try his theory out.

Experimenting with reads as town just simply makes sense. Pseudo-science or not, it doesn’t really matter. The motive behind it is pretty clear.
On the other hand, if he’s scum, I wouldn’t expect him to be THAT set on getting results. He would have to lie about his reads and would have to fake the results of his experiment (in a bad way) so no matter what he would have learned absolutely nothing from scum-reading anyone this way.

He lies about his reads = people think his way of reading is bad
Scum-reads townies using this method = people think his way of reading is bad
+he personally gets nothing out of it
...his posts (and emotions in them) just don’t seem to come from someone who knows that he’s doing a bad thing

The only thing that’s putting me off is him scum-reading pretty much only the low-posters (easy mis-lynches) + a lot of people I town-read... but tbh that’s still not enough to change my read there. 90(?)% inno

Gamma

- mindmelding a lot at the beginning of the game. Asking right questions at the right time. It’s easily fakeable but still likely good. There was literally nothing I’d like to call AI later on tho... In the PoE they go
I’d like to mention here that gamma would have known that galron claimed cop, not grendal... So I doubt they would have made that kill if they were scum

NoPowerOverMe

- Likely town because of the wagon on him D1.
Some people STRONGLY wanted him dead while some STRONGLY insisted that he’s town... Call me stupid, but in general I rarely see scum buddy each other THAT hard since the very beginning of D1
(people scum-read NPOM for pretty much anything and those who defended him just straight out said that “the wagon is disgusting”...)
Scum defending their teammate DESPITE a lot of townies pushing? - I don’t see it. That’s not how SvS defense should look like imo. If it were SvS I’d expect sth more reasonable that doesn’t place as many suspicions on the defenders after a flip.
High chances are that NPOM was just town and scum were spread between the attackers and defenders (they strongly pushed him because it was a decent mis-lynch and some white-knighted because they knew that this would give them town-creed)
NPOM can only be scum if he was bussed back then.
#619 agree about lucas. GOOD post

[ejjinami]

OurWorldEr

- Voted in their first post and changed their vote RIGHT after gamma criticized it. Didn’t try voting again.
It could have been a defensive reaction, caused by them knowing that they voted wrongly and not wanting to be scum-read.
#213 Calling Frogster scum is bad.
Not SvS with NPOM (they voted in #381 despite counterwagons existing, when the wagon on NPOM was getting big)

#”940 you’re trying to bully people into voting your SRs” (not necessarily AI)- good post
Result: PoE

bugspray

-there’s literally NOTHING I’d call AI in their posts. There were some ok posts but they’re not strong enough to get a read based on them and there aren’t enough to read them for constantly giving town-tells.
#402 not SvS with NPOM
10000% not scum with luca.
That’s pretty much all there is. So a big, fat nothing.
Result: PoE depending on flips

[ejjinami]

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them
besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists), I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to

and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them

besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists),

I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to

and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere

This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.

With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.

Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hard

honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much

I’m working on my notes rn

btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?

You replaced into NPOMs slot? I haven't sr NPOM since 3/4 into D1. I guess it was unclear since I lumped him in with the Town Block in my reads list.

If you don't mind then it would be nice, along with the other questions.

http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/

This is the best free version I've found so far. There's a "short" version and a long version, whichever you want to put the time into, they're both pretty long.

[Frogsterking]

Oh I see you replaced into the Trendall slot. I was null reading that slot along with OutWorldER at the conclusion of D2. That changes things a little. I most definitely would like to hear some of your notes or scum case on Luca now.