Mini Normal 2185 | EFoBBBiO | Game Over!

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like you’re saying “oh I need to do xyzzy” a lot, that’s my main issue. Another part of it is the amount of posts you’re making while not sounding sure of anything or like you’re making much headway in your thinking. I feel like “show don’t tell” and “quality over quantity”are good generalizations of the improvements that could be made. You don’t have to walk us through your entire thought process post-by-post. Just figure out what you can, and if something thoroughly stumps you, you can speak up about that so others can try to solve it in your place.

[joqiza]

I feel like I'm being as concise as possible. I tried to reduce 1540 to the main points I wanted to bring up w.r.t. Luca, Frog, and the possibility of WIFOM in Momrangal's votes.

[joqiza]

I mean frankly, given that I'm ostensibly conftown FYPOV I'd rather you just engage with the points I brought up about the different slots rather than have a debate about communication. It sounds like a culture difference, I'm considered a low-poster on my home site (people post a lot there, I recently played in a game with 17,000+ posts).

[Gamma Emerald]

What is the takeaway for 1540? I feel like that’s lost in the fog rn.

[joqiza]

- Do you disagree with not!Luca/Momrangel (syntax by which I mean: they aren't a team) or not!Frogster/Momrangel?
- What are your thoughts on Momrangel's defense of bugspray after their role claim?
- Do you have other reads on Momrangal's spew?

These are the 3 main bullet points I can reduce my posts to.

[Gamma Emerald]

frog/mom seems inviable
luca/mom too, but I’m not as sure an that and would have to comb over the context myself to be sure

Need to re-read mom for the other two questions

Thank you, though.

[joqiza]

No problem. Any future analysis posts I make will include a tl;dr section, just for you.

[Frogsterking]

I thought 716 was also bizarre and it was part of what prompted me to make the Lunar-is-traitor case. In 1354 it looks like Momrangel is unsure of Grendel's role and is possibly fishing and/or taking a stab in the dark as to the nature of his guilty. This means that she was informed of something else which I thought could be the identity of a traitor (but I now think is the identity of a PR besides Grendel.) I think this means that the scum feel the 2nd PR is more pocketed than Grendel was, which puts Bugs in a bad light (and possibly the Trendall slot if the 2nd pr is Galron.)

I felt like Momrangel outed a visit to OutWorldER because there was less of a chance OutWorldER would be the target of a watcher.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not really having any problems with your process joqiza, in fact I think it might be helpful because it seems there is at least one scum that worked their way out of the PoE. For some reason I got more out of the disorganized notes rather than the organized ones but I liked that you had both.

1) It seems to me that you're really focused on sorting between Luca and Bugs in light of the Momrangel flip, is there any chance you can look at the rest of the slots right now before and after the Momrangel flip? That might even help you sort between Luca and Bugs.

2) I'm curious about your opinion on the D1 wagon, do you think it was an on-wagon or off-wagon day? I'm going to go back over my notes on VCA. I don't consider myself as efficacious with VCA but I've seen it used to solve games and I want to be able to do the same.

[Luca Blight]

@luca, which games were you talking about (where you read them correctly)?

I really don't feel like talking any more about my meta read on Bugs. I feel as though there is enough reason to believe they are scum from their play in this game alone. If you're wondering about the validity of my claim that I have had success reading them as both alignments, the fact Bugs themselves hasn't questioned or refuted this should be evidence enough that I'm not making it up.

[Luca Blight]

Really the only thing that makes me doubt the non-partnered read between Momrangal and Luca is actually the hammer on 1379 and the follow-up comment on 1380. That was kind of random and I'd like to hear Luca elaborate on what exactly he meant by "Couldn't resist." It's just an odd comment to me and the hammer seemed a bit sudden.

There's something satisfying about hammering scum, and when Datisi posted the VC that showed Momrangal was E-1 I just dropped the hammer on impulse.

[Frogsterking]

To add even more fuel to the bugspray fire I found this section of D1 interesting, Momrangal is clearly trying to create a counterwagon for Bugspray, and Trendall "playfully" joins in with her idea, which could have just been an excuse to get his vote off of Bugspray.

Votecount 1.11

bugspray(4)

~ Trendall(27), Gamma Emerald(60), NoPowerOverMe(76), Luca Blight(39)

NoPowerOverMe(3)

~ Amélie(51), OutWorldER(13), bugspray(34)

Lunar Martian(3)

~ AGamblingPig(5), Frogsterking(30), Galron(22)

Trendall(2)

~ Grendel(41), Momrangal(28)

OutWorldER(1)

~ Lunar Martian(9)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-01 11:27:58)

FLAVOR

frame 10 out of 19035

shout out to Datisi for having a working imgur

I could see any of bugs/LM/OWER being scum atm

Come do OWER with me then?

I'm still with him and trendall being my top two

This NPOM wagon is awful.

I agree with this, but I'm curious to why you think trendall isn't getting lynched. There are multiple people who have expressed that slot being likely scum and next to OWER.

There are also multiple slots expressing concern over OWER, but instead the consensus seems to be nerfing the loudest voice in the game. I'm not joining the NPOM wagon, and I could drop a vote on either but I would much rather drop scum over town.

Gamma, Frog, Grendel, amelie all expressed concerns over Trendall. Should they all move their vote there, he'll be at L-2

Gamma, NPOM, bug, Grendel, Luca I recall all had things to say about OWER. All votes being moved there puts him at L-1

So...?

Ok, I was just making sure that the claim was bs like I thought it was.

The only people that have an issue with it are those outside the block.

Who are the five people in it?

Me
Galron
Grendal
Frog
Gamma

Frog is still pushing you as scum here, but I do agree. The pushes against you are not only crappy as fuck but they are targeted at the largest voice within the block and someone who, if left alive could win us the game

UNVOTE:
VOTE: OutWorldER

Come do OWER with me then?

I'm happy to do that lol

VOTE: OWER

well, ok. Your alignment should be telling after this

Does this look like traditional scum theater to anyone or no? I believe both Momrangal and Trendall enjoy theater or have some kind of performance art background.

Trendall sits on this OutWorldER wagon and doesn't contribute anything for the rest of D1.

Their replace-out could have been done in spite to improve the standing of the slot in response to my game solve on D2.

[Frogsterking]

I’m back. I was busy wasting my time

Spoiler:

xD

@Ejji

Can you see anything in the hood that might look like Galreon and Bugs are scum and communicating with each other?

Just based on the interactions in the chat, I’m decently confident that Galeron should be town :/
more so than any of bugs/luca
but eh.
I don’t think so? Galeron talked to my slot several times more than to bugs

and there are some posts that imply that Amelia might have targeted Galeron before death. (and she died as a bodyguard)
if everyone thought gal was a PR, there’s a decent chance that they could have gotten attacked :/

is traitor guaranteed to be in the setup or sth? trying to find scum based on interactions with a role that might not even exist doesn’t seem like the most effective strategy

——

anyway, I started looking through bug’s ISO in other games in my free time but haven’t gotten much out of it yet. @luca, which games were you talking about (where you read them correctly)?

——

Reji should prob just out their report

I still have a lab report to finish today but I know. I’ll start working on it asap. Same with verifying bug’s meta.... (this might be actually more accurate than whatever read I could have)

If Galron is town then you're my FoS provided Bugs flips scum.

[OutWorldER]

what's the case on Galron? I haven't exactly understood that yet.

I think Bugspray/Trendall slot is most likely at this point, Bugs shitpush on eiji today feels like bad distancing while eiji tries to save their last scumbuddy/doomed slot.

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 3.4

bugspray(3)

~ Frogsterking(41), OutWorldER(3), Luca Blight(8)

Luca Blight(1)

~ ejjinami(48)

ejjinami(1)

~ bugspray(17)


Not Voting (4): Gamma Emerald(18), Galron(1), Lunar Martian(10), joqiza(27)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-22 18:03:48)

FLAVOR

frame 25 out of 19035

[ejjinami]

I might have joined at a very wrong time. VLA for 1 days
my yesterday’s report wasn’t that easy to write as I thought it would
aaand I have a test tomorrow I forgot about
there’s no need to give me an official VLA status because it’ll be over way too quickly but I’ll jsut have to take care of that first. I’ll be completely free after that
jsut cut me a bit more slack

@luca, which games were you talking about (where you read them correctly)?

I really don't feel like talking any more about my meta read on Bugs. I feel as though there is enough reason to believe they are scum from their play in this game alone. If you're wondering about the validity of my claim that I have had success reading them as both alignments, the fact Bugs themselves hasn't questioned or refuted this should be evidence enough that I'm not making it up.

You’re acting as if you don’t want me to look it up.
I’m well aware that you’re good with words, don’t beat around the bush.
I asked for links to the games you were talking about, not a read extension. As I said before, I already started looking though bug’s meta but didn’t see a difference as big as you were talking about. That’s EXACTLY why I asked.

From what I’ve seen till now, their town and scum meta are rather close. They were more creative and way more open in games as both alignments. The only reliable(???) difference I noticed till now is that they tend to react with “jeez”, “wtf” type of stuff to scum-reads and anything that starts them as scum a bit more.
But there is a chance that I’m just looking through the wrong games

Saying that “he’s so scummy so you don’t need links” honestly seems like bullshit. If you don’t give me links I’ll just look for them myself.
that’s all I have to say


I haven’t read the entire thread btw. Just found this post because I was interested in it
I’ll catch up tomorrow,
sorry for that again

[Frogsterking]

Actually, maybe the last scum has to be outside of the neighborhood, because otherwise it makes little sense to eliminate Grendel instead of the target of the original night kill, which I'm guessing Momrangal was informed of their role.

Grendel's ability won't work on anyone outside of the neighborhood so if the whole scum team was left inside, it makes more sense to kill the other pr. The only situation I see this not being the case is if the last one was Trendall and they eliminated Grendel just out of fear of his FoS.

[Frogsterking]

what's the case on Galron? I haven't exactly understood that yet.

I think Bugspray/Trendall slot is most likely at this point, Bugs shitpush on eiji today feels like bad distancing while eiji tries to save their last scumbuddy/doomed slot.

I think was just intimidated off the read because a few players are town reading the Trendall slot now.

I don't understand why they would kill Grendel instead of the pr in the hood unless it's because they had the pr in the hood pocketed.

[Lunar Martian]

Galron and I have been on the same page about a whole lot of stuff and Galron has made a number of posts I feel Mafia never makes. I can go dig up some posts if you really want, joqiza.

Luca's recent posting has me increasingly convinced that Luca is Mafia.

[joqiza]

Meh I'm not really disagreeing that Galron is town, just most of his posts flew under the radar for me on catch-up so was curious why you felt so confident. Luca I think is more important for us to focus on rn because I felt like his interactions with the flipped red slot were the strongest and I really don't see much that pings me or bothers me about his posting. So if he's mafia I'm getting fooled at the moment.

His push on bugspray really stood out on rr because he's pushed it hard and he's justified it via meta. He probably will get that slot flipped today and his determination read towny to me. Like if I were playing a game with someone I had strong meta on and I was scum to their town, I'd be hesitant to hardpush them for meta reasons because doing so would essentially be scum claiming to them. And if I pushed hard enough and got them flipped on D1 where would I go? Scum will certainly tunnel in my experience, but they won't really try to give rope in the same determined way, because they're mainly just focused on having something to do.

[joqiza]

Grendel's ability won't work on anyone outside of the neighborhood so if the whole scum team was left inside, it makes more sense to kill the other pr. The only situation I see this not being the case is if the last one was Trendall and they eliminated Grendel just out of fear of his FoS.

Grendel being the target of the nightkill over the other PR in the hood is an interesting observation and I think that might be the nail in the coffin for the mafia traitor theory, actually. If the remaining scum included a traitor then I think scum would actually WANT to leave the traffic analyst alive, since (if I'm understanding the mechs right) the TA could never get a guilty in that case and could actually mis-clear scum. The TA would be negative utility, essentially. I don't think there's a traitor.

What it implies about the composition of the hood is less clear imo but is worth revisiting once we know more about the PR in the hood and what they've claimed. Note that even if both scum are in the hood and thus "covered," the TA would remain a threat to scum because it can get green checks on townies outside the hood. So it depends on the hood PR's claim. Scum may have simply felt Grendel was the stronger investigative.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Luca Blight

I might have joined at a very wrong time. VLA for 1 days
my yesterday’s report wasn’t that easy to write as I thought it would
aaand I have a test tomorrow I forgot about
there’s no need to give me an official VLA status because it’ll be over way too quickly but I’ll jsut have to take care of that first. I’ll be completely free after that
jsut cut me a bit more slack

@luca, which games were you talking about (where you read them correctly)?

I really don't feel like talking any more about my meta read on Bugs. I feel as though there is enough reason to believe they are scum from their play in this game alone. If you're wondering about the validity of my claim that I have had success reading them as both alignments, the fact Bugs themselves hasn't questioned or refuted this should be evidence enough that I'm not making it up.

You’re acting as if you don’t want me to look it up.
I’m well aware that you’re good with words, don’t beat around the bush.
I asked for links to the games you were talking about, not a read extension. As I said before, I already started looking though bug’s meta but didn’t see a difference as big as you were talking about. That’s EXACTLY why I asked.

From what I’ve seen till now, their town and scum meta are rather close. They were more creative and way more open in games as both alignments. The only reliable(???) difference I noticed till now is that they tend to react with “jeez”, “wtf” type of stuff to scum-reads and anything that starts them as scum a bit more.
But there is a chance that I’m just looking through the wrong games

Saying that “he’s so scummy so you don’t need links” honestly seems like bullshit. If you don’t give me links I’ll just look for them myself.
that’s all I have to say


I haven’t read the entire thread btw. Just found this post because I was interested in it
I’ll catch up tomorrow,
sorry for that again

Galron and I have been on the same page about a whole lot of stuff and Galron has made a number of posts I feel Mafia never makes. I can go dig up some posts if you really want, joqiza.

Luca's recent posting has me increasingly convinced that Luca is Mafia.

The Luca + OutWorldER/Gamma theory makes more sense regarding the night kill because Grendel can guilty them all with his investigative role, whereas for a Bugs + Ejji team the night kill is a little questionable because they're safe from Grendel's investigation if I'm understanding the traffic analyst correctly. Since the Mafia Informed flip, the N1 kill, and Mom's role fishing of Grendel imply scum were not informed of Grendel's role from the start, it's not out of line to speculate that Grendel's ability was more threatening to the scum team than whatever they knew already, which would imply there is at least one scum out of the neighborhood, throwing dirt on the Bugs/Trendall theory.

Something else to point out regarding night kill analysis is that even if this interpretation of events is wrong and Amelie was directly targeted N1, that also points more so toward Luca and especially Gamma. Momrangel's play kind of resembles open wolfing, she was just throwing dirt at as many slots as possible pretty much, the kind of slot that's often a good bus target for the scum team later, so maybe Amelie's townread on her was not viewed as critical as Amelie's potential to be a liability. It's also possible Momrangel's Informed ability was simply the knowledge that Amelie was a bodyguard, so she was directly targeted for that reason as well to clear the path for the night kills later.

[Frogsterking]

Fuck, the unvote in 1571 was a Freudian slip, UNVOTE: Bugspray.

[Frogsterking]

We don't have to commit to executing Bugspray today, there are multiple townie slots that are reconsidering this choice. I think we really need to hear from Galron's perspective.

[joqiza]

Btw, @Frog, I saw your 1558 and will try to get to both those questions this evening.

To respond quickly to something you said in 1561 regarding the Trendall sub-out. Spite is a possible explanation but I frankly I think Trendall's last posts before replacing out were town-indicative in light of his request. Don't want to get into it too much because it's angleshooting but in short making those kind of posts before a sub-out, as scum, would be viewed as distasteful on my home site. I'm aware culture may be different here and it's probably best to avoid reading into ogi elements too much anyway but that's one of the things that cautions me about any solve involving the slot.

I would be fairly surprised as of rn if the remaining scum were simply {bugspray/ejjinami}. I understand the distancing argument but that team feels wrong to me based on how d2 begun. Ejjinami even asked bugspray to take their argument to the hood: seems like a weird play to try to distance where fewer people can see it.