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[Gamma Emerald]

To add even more fuel to the bugspray fire I found this section of D1 interesting, Momrangal is clearly trying to create a counterwagon for Bugspray, and Trendall "playfully" joins in with her idea, which could have just been an excuse to get his vote off of Bugspray.

Votecount 1.11

bugspray(4)

~ Trendall(27), Gamma Emerald(60), NoPowerOverMe(76), Luca Blight(39)

NoPowerOverMe(3)

~ Amélie(51), OutWorldER(13), bugspray(34)

Lunar Martian(3)

~ AGamblingPig(5), Frogsterking(30), Galron(22)

Trendall(2)

~ Grendel(41), Momrangal(28)

OutWorldER(1)

~ Lunar Martian(9)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-01 11:27:58)

FLAVOR

frame 10 out of 19035

shout out to Datisi for having a working imgur

That reminds me I had a mental note to review the D1 wagon dynamics at some point later on

[Gamma Emerald]

what's the case on Galron? I haven't exactly understood that yet.

I think Bugspray/Trendall slot is most likely at this point, Bugs shitpush on eiji today feels like bad distancing while eiji tries to save their last scumbuddy/doomed slot.

I think was just intimidated off the read because a few players are town reading the Trendall slot now.

I don't understand why they would kill Grendel instead of the pr in the hood unless it's because they had the pr in the hood pocketed.

Grendel didn't fullclaim his role though, so the mafia were probably afraid of his role more than whatever was in the neighborhood.

[joqiza]

Grendel didn't fullclaim his role though, so the mafia were probably afraid of his role more than whatever was in the neighborhood.

I forgot that he didn't claim his full role on d2, which makes my recent theorycrafting useless. Oops.

I'm doing my best here y'all... sorry.

[Frogsterking]

Okay guys I have a new solve I think this one is finally right! I was typing up evidence I found during VCA and then an idea popped into my head, and now I'm finding even more evidence and it's actually here in the game and not in my imagination! (at least some of it.) The idea is partly based on a game that made me really mad yesterday I played on EM where I called the scum team 2/2 a few minutes into D1, and then they talked me into believing they were town and the town tunneled each other and we lost.

[Gamma Emerald]

Their replace-out could have been done in spite to improve the standing of the slot in response to my game solve on D2.

If you legitimately think this btw you should prob report Trendall, that's breaking the rules iirc

[Frogsterking]

Their replace-out could have been done in spite to improve the standing of the slot in response to my game solve on D2.

If you legitimately think this btw you should prob report Trendall, that's breaking the rules iirc

Thank you for mentioning this to me, I didn't know it was against the rules and I was seriously considering it as a possibility.

I have a new solve now which I think makes a lot more sense than any of my previous ones, I'm writing up the case for it now.

[Gamma Emerald]

sounds good

[Frogsterking]

Lunar you're so done now.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar you're so done now.

HAHA that's not surprising. Confirmation bias is the most powerful force in the universe.

[Frogsterking]

Interesting that you sound more like your D1 persona now that you've gotten Luca to townread you.

I wasn't joking when I said you were done. This isn't a tunnel I'm making for you, this is a coffin.

[Gamma Emerald]

Lunar you're so done now.

HAHA that's not surprising. Confirmation bias is the most powerful force in the universe.

Bad post.

[Lunar Martian]

Interesting that you sound more like your D1 persona now that you've gotten Luca to townread you.

I wasn't joking when I said you were done. This isn't a tunnel I'm making for you, this is a coffin.

That's fine, but the more confident you are the more I'll hold it over your head in the future.

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar you're so done now.

HAHA that's not surprising. Confirmation bias is the most powerful force in the universe.

Bad post.

Bad post.

[Gamma Emerald]

okay

[Frogsterking]

This case is huge and piggy backs off things that both Gamma and Luca have said, which I tried to include in their entirety. The timeline is jumping around a bit so I'm trying to keep the individual posts within each section in chronological order and label the sections by day and reason for inclusion.

The solve dun dun dun..

Spoiler:

Mom/Bugs/Lunar

D2: Mom returns from V/la with Bugs at l-1 and votes Gamma instead

Votecount 2.6

bugspray(5)

~ OutWorldER(9), Luca Blight(55), Frogsterking(64), Gamma Emerald(27), Trendall(46)

Trendall(2)

~ Lunar Martian(45), NoPowerOverMe(16)

Momrangal(1)

~ Grendel(17)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Momrangal(10)


Not Voting (2): bugspray(13), Galron(8)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-13 20:42:20)

FLAVOR

frame 20 out of 19035

Momrangel chooses to go on Gamma here upon return from V/La instead of hammering Bugs. This is self-explanatory and you can check for yourself, I'm just posting the vote count as evidence here.

D2: Momrangel uses my theory as a jumping-off point to implicate Gamma as scum but Lunar as town, which makes no sense given the theory was based off of an associative scum tell.

My theory which brought up the possibility of a mutual chainsaw between Gamma and Lunar:

Spoiler:

I'm going to try and show what might be a mutual chainsaw defense here (straight from the wiki).

@Grendel@Momrangal@NPOM

I am most curious to hear your perspectives on this theory, and

@Galron

I'm curious if this is what you were inferring behind the Trendall and Bugs town reads or if you have a completely different theory altogether.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

Okay, so? If you have an issue with that logic, then would the case really be that “compelling”? And in vice versa, why would something like that make LM scum even when the case is compelling?

Gamma defending LM here (and himself in proxy) by attacking my logic.

Lunar Martian seems like town to me.

Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.

I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really.

You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.

And there are fewer players (9 instead of 13 makes a huge difference), there are different players, it's an open setup, the roles are more basic, it took place at a different time in their life.....

who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Lol I won't waste my time then. Let's all get this then because there was a fair amount of support for eliminating Lunar yesterday, so we can just like, get it done now.

VOTE: Lunar Martian

It's just odd, since Trendall seemed very confident

I did two posts about you I think. One said

"Lunar Martian seems like town to me"

and the other said

"I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really"

. If you want to interpret that as somebody who is 'very confident' then there's not a lot I can do about that.

You reckon I 'went out of my way' by typing those two sentences?

Like wow I had a town read on somebody

These are all the relevant posts.

@Trendall

Do you stand by your earlier evaluation of the Gamma slot back from this point in D1:

I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.

I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.

Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.

Okay. Would you like to say why?

Not particularly. Post #312 is the main reason but also just general vibes.

idk what's wrong with post 312 but w/e

Sry I'm trying to do like three things at once so haven't bothered to format this properly but check these two links for like, what I'm talking about here -

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12230155

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12298023

That's me in other games identifying some mafia people

Yeah sounds fair

The above quotes are Lunar Martian attacking Trendall, the only player to scum case Gamma, followed by Trendall's scum case. Lunar is perhaps attempting to use my own FoS on Trendall to hide behind both myself and Luca's reads on Trendall and Bugspray respectively.

I also had just came across Frogs case against Gamma, it needs over night marination but I can see sense in that stance.



In regards to trendall vs OWER, It would be a weird bussing position to take when I had clear suspicions on both slots.

At that point in time, the only reason I can think of for trendall scum jumping on after me is he either knew OWER to be scum with him and maybe clearing him on that bus

Or

To set up mislynches.

OWER wasnt getting off and there were other easier mislynches to be had. It's just overall weird

VOTE: gamma

I think here may be where I want to venture into

VOTE: gamma

I think here may be where I want to venture into the most .

I'm still wrapping my mind around the double chain saw, but I do think that, if Gamma is scum, then Bugs and Lunar are assuredly town. The more I think about it, the more I'm bothered by the fact that he was and is so non-chalant about there being two backup neighbors and dismissing the fact that one of them could be scum

The point of the double chain saw tell is that both players are scum. It's an associative tell. Momrangel is taking the tell I presented which implicates both Lunar and Gamma, but chooses to go in the direction against Gamma, and pretends that it somehow makes sense she is pushing Lunar as town.

Not only is she passing an easy opportunity to hammer Bugs here, she's

actively resisting

an easy opportunity to push Lunar, and distorting the information here in a way that is beneficial to Lunar. The information here is being distorted to the extent that the argument I was originally presenting no longer makes sense within the context of an associative scum tell between Lunar and Gamma. Still she is pushing it here in a serious way, before Grendel has outed his guilty.

D1: Momrangel puts some effort into creating a counter-wagon for Bugs..instead of putting effort into fueling the existing one on Lunar.

Votecount 1.11

bugspray(4)

~ Trendall(27), Gamma Emerald(60), NoPowerOverMe(76), Luca Blight(39)

NoPowerOverMe(3)

~ Amélie(51), OutWorldER(13), bugspray(34)

Lunar Martian(3)

~ AGamblingPig(5), Frogsterking(30), Galron(22)

Trendall(2)

~ Grendel(41), Momrangal(28)

OutWorldER(1)

~ Lunar Martian(9)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-01 11:27:58)

FLAVOR

frame 10 out of 19035

shout out to Datisi for having a working imgur

I could see any of bugs/LM/OWER being scum atm

Come do OWER with me then?

I'm still with him and trendall being my top two

We have 6 days? Why are we compromising?

This NPOM wagon is awful.

Gamma, Frog, Grendel, amelie all expressed concerns over Trendall. Should they all move their vote there, he'll be at L-2

Gamma, NPOM, bug, Grendel, Luca I recall all had things to say about OWER. All votes being moved there puts him at L-1

So...?

VOTE: OWER

well, ok. Your alignment should be telling after this

I agree with this, but I'm curious to why you think trendall isn't getting lynched. There are multiple people who have expressed that slot being likely scum and next to OWER.

There are also multiple slots expressing concern over OWER, but instead the consensus seems to be nerfing the loudest voice in the game. I'm not joining the NPOM wagon, and I could drop a vote on either but I would much rather drop scum over town.

Momrangel's motivation here in these chain posts to create a counter wagon to Bugs is pretty clear. I think everyone on the Bugs wagon can agree with this, right?

So answer me this:

@All

If Mom's motivation here is to create a counter wagon to Bugs, why the %&#* is she making a new one and not pushing the already-existing Lunar wagon which already has town on it?

D1: Luca's original case on Lunar

Spoiler: bugs on Lunar

im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that) and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very

npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish

sounds good VOTE: lunar martian
that's l-1

That vote came out of nowhere, possibly a late bus attempt.

Lunar should claim in their next post.

have you seen lunar's iso?

calling my previous mention of lunar in 462 a strong tr is real reachy. a lot of the time i just have difficulty reading slots and pretend they don't exist and up until recently for me that was lunar

If needed I can claim, but I prefer not to obviously. I'm not really willing to claim when half the people voting me haven't stated any reasons though. There's time, why don't the people voting me try to talk to me a little?

hey lunar what's your role?

lunar martian are you spiteful?

Hey lunar nopom gave intent can you claim now or should he just hammer?

Bugs never mentioned Lunar at all until page 19, where they say pushing Lunar isn't controversial. This is pretty odd given Bugs was the leading wagon at this point, while Lunar was joint second wagon, so you'd think Town!Bugs would have some curiosity at least over this slot. Lunar had made some light defences of Bugs by this point: 399, 436, 460 which is a bit of a stronger defence.

Bugs then seems to offer another light defence of Lunar in 547, before cashing in at 555 after Gamma put Lunar to L-2. Bugs then goes really into it in their subsequent posts, egging on the wagon and seeming to taunt Lunar, which is really contrary to their previous stance where they were holding their cards close to their chest with regards to Lunar.

Lunar then comes back in and complains about people not talking to them etc, but doesn't address Bugs' vote or interact with them, and instead maintains the same stance they had previously - that there's no reason to SR Bugs. Lunar calls the people voting them and Bugs 'opportunistic', but doesn't address the fact that Bugs is voting Lunar themselves. During my interaction with Lunar I ask them to comment on my points against Bugs; Lunar says it's only based on meta which isn't enough for them. When I point out most of my points against Bugs are not meta related, Lunar moves the goalposts by saying 'I SR you so I don't care about your points'.

This is some really weird interaction, and to me most makes sense from a S/S perspective. Bugs held off voting Lunar as long as possible until it seemed Lunar was a goner (or at least one of Lunar/Bugs was) and then they went full bus mode. Lunar entered the thread full of complaints but very unwilling to give their reads and opinions, which had to be dragged out of them. Posts like 586 and 594 seem like Lunar just wants to keep associative information to a minimum by maintaining the same stances they had earlier. This is a common strategy that scum who are about to die use, so there's limited information for D2. Normally town here are much more open about their thoughts, normally willing to shout them from the rooftops, so I don't think this was Town behavior from Lunar here.

I'll look at Lunar's meta to see if it matches up with their play in this game.

I've just glanced through Lunar's one completed game, where they were VT, and their play is far superior to this game, despite it being their first game.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=35109

They actively scum-hunted and openly shared reasoning and reads. The only similarity I can see is that they were also dismissive of pushes against them. I have limited time but I'll try and dig up some examples and comparisons.

Spoiler: Lunar's meta

Also he's never getting eliminated is he so he doesn't even has to sacrifice himself at all necessarily.

I really dislike this push from trendall on the claimed doctor. The doctor claim will be tested at night, and trendall should know better as an SE.
VOTE: trendall

I see rock's posts as townie. I think it's a bit melodramatic for clidd to get so frustrated and claim, and for rock to say "just kill me"... I don't think either of them was the most voted person at the time they did that.

A doctor cannot target themselves, so that can't self-protect, I just looked this up on the wiki.

And clidd, the doctor would know that. Hence clidd is lying. The question is: why?

VOTE: clidd

Nah clidd's my final vote today.

That said, this attitude is awful and does actually make it hard to kill anyone. Can people get over themselves and try to find scum rather than get themselves killed because they feel bad that they made a mistake?

I will not be voting clidd or trendall today.

I'm pretty confident with a Lunar elimination.

And I'm pretty confident that you aren't all that smart.

I'm pretty confident that the following people are town:
me, trendall, clidd (you aren't half as smart as you think you are), ben dover (you are very overconfident and slip into confirmation bias very easily), Chumbo.
That leaves:
Lavar, Rockhopper, Lone, BM.

Out of those four, I'd pick BM and Lone to be the most likely scum. BM is being far too quiet. Didn't someone say BM normally posts a lot more?

VOTE: BM

My solve right now would be Lone and BM.

OK let me address it. This is a really dumb wagon. The case on me is pathetic, there's nothing for me to even defend. Ben you say my read on you changed a lot, but when you criticized me for that you even admitted that you had been scummy. There's one scum on my wagon and 4 dumb townies. Lone is almost certainly scum here.

What? When was that? I gotta reread.

Lone is not scum. Have you seen his recent posts?

Pedit: :thonk: what is your reason for BM again?

BM isn't posting after repeatedly promising to be active. When BM gets called out he shows up and posts just enough that everyone gives him a pass. Also Lone's "welp" post is super scummy. It's scum trying to look like a townie who feels bad. Just kill me, then tomorrow when the cop has no result and the doctor is dead and you continue to self destruct with terrible reads I'll be laughing in the graveyard. Ben you are way overconfident and it seems like your reads are quite bad. No one is re-evaluating. Look at Lone's justification for voting me (spoiler alert: there's no justification other than straight up naked opportunism because I'm a person that people don't townread and other people are willing to vote me). Even after being repeatedly prodded for reasoning why I'm scum Lone hasn't provided any.

The rest of you have really poor reasoning to think I'm scum, but at least there is some.

If you got voted to E-1 and people couldn't provide any reasoning but assumed that you were scum and were only looking for other scum based on their interactions with you you'd probably also get frustrated. You aren't engaging with me in good faith or making any effort to consider the possibility that you're wrong. If you can't engage in good faith with me, I have no reason to do so with you. It doesn't matter what I say, you've decided that I'm scum. So I'm just gonna say things that make me feel better about dying, which in this case means ridiculing you.

Um, we aren't assuming you are scum. There are reasons behind my accusation, you know. More than "Lunar is indecisive".

I'd get frustrated, but I'd definitely go and start pointing out the flaws behind the accusations, addressing each one, not:

Ben you are way overconfident and it seems like your reads are quite bad. No one is re-evaluating.
The rest of you have really poor reasoning to think I'm scum, but at least there is some.

[
It was the first time you mentioned it. Yesterday or the day before. You said you didn't like my read changing on you, but also admitted that you had made some very questionable posts.

And rather than assume me changing my mind is scummy you should ask me questions to try to uncover my true intentions. This is garbage play from you, tbh.

The only thing you fixed was adding in the possibility of "Scum would choose a read and stick to it".

I can't really engage with you in good faith because you are very sure that Lone is scum and so is BM, and the reasons you provided I just can't agree with. Maybe we can work something together, but the way you are rejecting the possibility that Lone is genuinely newbie town is not helping us get together in good faith.

I am thinking about the possibility where I am wrong, and it's likely there, but this is likely where we are going today and as Trendall said, don't overthink it. I'll reconsider everything D2 if I am wrong.

You aren't really re-evaluating. I'm not asking you to engage me in good faith on my scumreads. I'm asking you to engage in good faith on your scumread of me.

And clidd I think that the scum lie in: Lone, BM, Rock.
Eliminate me, you, Trendall, Chumbo, and ben as possibilities, and that's where you wind up. Lavar could be scum but I think it's somewhat less likely.

Here they show some healthy read progressions; they vote and push both Trendall and Clidd, but end up Townreading them both and refusing to vote for either of them. In this game, what read progressions has Lunar made? They've kept the same kind of reads all along, with a few little alterations here and there. I like how they ask questions with a view to sorting, like they did before their Clidd vote.

Lunar gives decent reasoning without needing to be prodded for it, like in 605.

They tried to keep the town on a healthy path in 864.

When under pressure they spew reads. Compare 1015 and 1156 to their behavior under pressure this game, where they just said 'read my posts' and refused to talk about their reads further. It's night and day.

In both games they've been dismissive of votes against them, saying there's no reasoning for it, but I don't think that line is justified in this game, as was highlighted by Gamma in 591.

@Gamma, Frogster, Grendel,

can you take a look a look at this and tell me what you think?

I think this is the best evaluation I've seen so far.

I want to point out something else from D1:

@bugs

Do you believe it's accurate to say that you and Lunar have a similar approach?

Bugs never addresses this question.

There is also this implied familiarity between Bugs and Lunar which is odd because I believe they've never played before. I go WAY in depth into this in my earlier theory about the traitor in 1439. I feel like Bugs and Lunar have this implied rapport which is coming from their talking in the scum chat.

D2: Lunar pockets Luca by replicating what Luca is looking for in D1

I get the feeling Lunar is Town based on their recent posts. You theorized earlier that Lunar's meta could be different from their previous town game due to this being their first time out of the Newbie queue,

and their recent posts are much more in line from what I'd expect from Town!Lunar.

I'll go back and check though to make sure.

Did you not consider that this is no coincidence? Lunar can see what you posted about them just as well as the rest of us can, and during the night they had time to recoup from the pressure of D1 and figure out what needed to be said to get you to townread them. Your very detailed analysis of how Lunar's meta differed may have given them the insight they needed to correct their scum play, at least in the short term..

Here is something Lunar said that makes me believe this is exactly what happened:

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

I think both remaining Mafia will be found in those two and Gamma.

Kinda still think Luca is Town, but I'll feel very good about my Day 1 if Luca is Mafia.

He's mentioning you twice here in relation to D1, as well as implying that he DIDN'T feel very good about his D1 play.

Maybe it's possible, but I'm pretty confident Lunar is Town now. I'm not sure they could suddenly turn it on like that as scum out of nowhere. It seems genuine.

I think this is the moment where the scum finally slipped through a crack in the PoE they had been placed in since the beginning of the game. I think that you're underestimating Lunar and what drives Lunar. I believe Lunar is midrange in agreeableness and perhaps motivated more so in altruism than the average person, especially for what this website seems to self-select for. I also am getting a bit of a cold read on Lunar that leads me to believe Lunar is unlike many players here in that they are very high in conscientiousness, which among other things means they are more likely to succeed in general, and in particular I believe Lunar is motivated by a sense of the subfacet dutifulness.

Here they are below:

Average Agreeableness:
Your level of Agreeableness is average, indicating some concern with others' Needs, but, generally, unwillingness to sacrifice yourself for others.

Altruism (Sub facet of Agreeableness):
Altruism. Altruistic people find helping other people genuinely rewarding. Consequently, they are generally willing to assist those who are in need. Altruistic people find that doing things for others is a form of self-fulfillment rather than self-sacrifice. Low scorers on this scale do not particularly like helping those in need. Requests for help feel like an imposition rather than an opportunity for self-fulfillment.

High Conscientiousness:
Your score on Conscientiousness is high. This means you set clear goals and pursue them with determination. People regard you as reliable and hard-working.

Dutifulness (Sub facet of Conscientiousness):
Dutifulness. This scale reflects the strength of a person's sense of duty and obligation. Those who score high on this scale have a strong sense of moral obligation. Low scorers find contracts, rules, and regulations overly confining. They are likely to be seen as unreliable or even irresponsible.

What I'm getting at here is that Lunar feels like they're letting the team down by almost being the D1 lynch, and they feel a sense of obligation to perform well in their given role (scum.) They're also capable of working hard enough to meet the demands of whatever task they're motivated to complete, WITHOUT losing concentration in the process. They also are not motivated necessarily to be the centre of attention or be the hero. This is a bit awkward, because in this case, the scum team really needed a hero to break through the town block and take some risks to get town read hard. With this solve, clearly the scum team was not doing well D1, and Lunar took responsibility, and Lunar worked hard to be town READ on D2 but not necessarily become a super star. Lunar's main strategy here was to focus on reversing the reads or heavily discrediting townie wall-of-text posters who were tearing him apart D1, and push

everyone

else.

So again, I think that Lunar was most definitely emulating the town!Lunar play YOU SAID YOU WERE LOOKING FOR THE DAY BEFORE. Take one more look at this comment and tell me that you honestly don't believe scum!Lunar took N1 to carefully read exactly what you said you were looking for in town!Lunar, call you a blubbering obv townie with an ego that's too big on D2, and then emulate exactly what you said you were looking for from D1:

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

I think both remaining Mafia will be found in those two and Gamma.

Kinda still think Luca is Town, but I'll feel very good about my Day 1 if Luca is Mafia.

I know that there are two other scum tells in this post, and I'll get to those later.

I also like their read change on me - it would be so easy for scum to ride a scum read like that instead of reassessing.

Again, I'll stay open to the possibility of Lunar!scum but I'm happy enough with them for now.

Of course you like that they town read because it's your ego that you're obv town. Of course you also like their recent posts emulating their town!Lunar play because it's exactly what you said you were looking for D1.

D2: What the hell is Lunar's read progession? introducing.. Lunar "I FoS both my partners with no explanation while pushing ALL townies except for Luca and Frogsterking whom I discredit" Martian

*@ALL*

Looking over yesterday I'd love some GtH reads on Luca, Momrangul, and Trendel from anybody available to do so

Without re-reading at all: Town, Mafia, Mafia?

Where is the read on Momrangul coming from? It's coming from nowhere. And in case you couldn't guess, it's not going anywhere either.

This game feels like it's simpler than it seems and Mafia are mostly coasting by in low-activity slots. Every time we pressure someone they turn out to be Town, or get protected by a claim. That suggests that the scum are in slots we aren't pressuring, or are protected by claims.

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

Without a major revelation I don't think I want to eliminate outside of those four today.

#1

"I want Luca to stop being logical and start town reading me."

#2

"Same as Luca."

#3

"NoPower seems pretty town read but I also want to push him and see what happens. I'm putting him on my townread list so my scum read list doesn't get too big."

#4

"Gamma seems like he's pretty town read but might be an easier push than Luca or Frogsterking so I'll say he's both town and scum in this post and see what happens later."

My hero solve looks something like: NoPower, bugs, Trendall. Throw in Mom for an extra, and put Gamma in the Town boat.
I think I'd prefer to kill bugs or NoPower today, and I don't know how many other people are willing to go bugs, so VOTE: NoPower

Lunar, what happened to your "town read" on NoPower?? 2 posts ago??

And you prefer to kill Bugs or NoPower and vote NoPower who you're townreading?? Coincidence??

Notice the FoS on Bugs and Mom with no explanation, while pushing or discrediting EVERYONE IN THEIR SCUM

AND

TOWN LIST EXCEPT BUG AND MOM.

Of course immediately after, Lunar cases a different player, still NOT Bugs or Mom.

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more. Trendall has not done a whole lot this game except sheep me, defend me,

discredit Frogster's pseudo-psychoanalysis

, and try not to take firm stands.

Can we just take a moment to appreciate the complete and total irony of this statement.

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more. Trendall has not done a whole lot this game except sheep me, defend me, discredit Frogster's pseudo-psychoanalysis,

and try not to take firm stands.

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

I think I'd prefer to kill bugs or NoPower today, and I don't know how many other people are willing to go bugs, so VOTE: NoPower

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more.

Also this one.

Okay, fine, let's hear the case:

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more. Trendall has not done a whole lot this game except sheep me, defend me, discredit Frogster's pseudo-psychoanalysis, and try not to take firm stands.

I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.

I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.

Sheeping me.

Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.

Changes his mind for ??? reason, but suggests that Trendall is not Mafia with Gamma.

The NoPowerOverMe wagon sounds like it has been generated or influenced by mafia, yeah.

Discredits the NoPower wagon but doesn't really give any reasoning or alternatives.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: OutWorldER

He hadn't even mentioned ER prior to this, no reasoning given, but I think this vote is sheeping me, as I recall.

Lunar Martian seems like town to me.

Now I start to come under pressure and who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.

This is a pretty cheap statement to make with no reasoning, and suggests possible TMI.

I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really.

Again, defending me.

You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.

And there are fewer players (9 instead of 13 makes a huge difference), there are different players, it's an open setup, the roles are more basic, it took place at a different time in their life.....

Really doubling down on defending me. It kind of feels like an attempt to pocket me.

I don't mind voting bugspray but I don't think it's the best elimination. They could be maf tho.

So what exactly is Trendall's opinion of bugs? Can anyone tell me after reading this post? Feels like being unsure how to approach a wagon on a fellow Mafia.

I love personality tests and all this sort of thing, I just think the way that you in particular are trying to apply them to this game is bad.

Discrediting Frogster features heavily in Trendall's posts.

I don't see how scum!Trendall or scum!bugs are expecting to win the game playing today the way they have, unless they are expecting OutWorldER or some deep scum to carry them.

I'm in favour of eliminating OutWorldER though.

This suggests that ER is town and bugs is Mafia.

For me Grendel really just reminds me of another player I played a game with who I was sorta low-key suspicious of all game and then just eventually turned out to be town.

Another statement that's super cheap to make. It doesn't actually say anything and allows Trendall to come down on either side later.

VOTE: Trendall

Again, sorry that's so long.

...okay Lunar. Nice acting.

gamma was added to the hood at the same time as me and claims to be backup
there is a claimed town investigative role (which one is unclear) that claims to have a green light on npom

Good thing you swapped your vote off of npom between between posts 1032 and 1033. Did Bugs give you the heads up in your scum chat or did you realize that you had immediately before hand townread npom in 1031?

Now I start to come under pressure and who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Why is this a big deal?

It's just odd, since Trendall seemed very confident I was Town but never really explained why other than "there's nothing bad there".

Lunar is clearly pushing Trendall over Mom and Bugs who he also claims to FoS.

I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.

I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone

has to be

scum in it

And yet it seems likely that someone is. You trying to encourage us not to think so makes me question you. A few Gamma posts recently have really made me question my thinking about Gamma.

Are you questioning your scum read, or your town read? Or both? What? Which one is it? Lunar is now pushing both Trendall and Gamma (who he also thinks is town??) and still ignoring Bugs and Mom.

I also want to point out another pattern emerging from Lunar's iso, where Lunar wants to make sure we know there is exactly 1 scum in the hood, except Lunar has TWO players from the hood in their scum list, Bugs and Gamma, and despite this strong belief that there is 1 scum in the hood and Gamma is "probably town", Lunar is again never pushing Bugs and always pushing Gamma.

Votecount 2.5

Trendall(3)

~ Lunar Martian(44), NoPowerOverMe(15), Frogsterking(56)

bugspray(2)

~ OutWorldER(9), Luca Blight(55)

Momrangal(1)

~ Grendel(17)


Not Voting (5): Trendall(34), Momrangal(7), bugspray(9), Gamma Emerald(21), Galron(7)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-13 20:42:20)

FLAVOR

frame 19 out of 19035

This vote count gave me pause because everyone voting was someone I think is Town. But immediately after it two people I don't think are Town place votes. Very interesting.

Lol. Why did you vote for npom then? And what does this even mean?? Looks like a scum filler post.

D1: Amelie is willing to execute Lunar over ORAM

There's a little voice inside my head that's talking me into hammering bugs.

Dont. I think we need to shift off bugspray right now.

Why the urgency? And why does you thinking bugs is Town suddenly mean you don't think I'm Town anymore. You had me as Town before.

Why the urgency? And why does you thinking bugs is Town suddenly mean you don't think I'm Town anymore. You had me as Town before.

The elim is between you two. I don't particularly scum read you but I prefer you over bugspray.

I do not think ORAM is a good elimination today.

This may or may not have been a factor, but when it comes to the hammer she's clearly willing to prioritize a gut town read on ORAM which the scum know is correct over protecting Lunar. She is willing to compromise and work with the town block, who are town reading her. This may throw doubt that despite what she says, she will not be any asset to the scum team, and in fact if Momrangul was informed of her role it might just be worth getting rid of her.

D2: Gamma's read and Lunar's massive gaslighting to get me to stop scum reading them (this one in non-chronological order).

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

A psychologist might call this confirmation bias.

Also don't mind Frogster, he didn't mean anything by it and also isn't as good at reading people as he thinks. It's only a game with strange internet people. We don't know anything.

Okay if I change my vote again it’s going to this, this looks awful

Yeah being nice to people is really awful, how dare I.

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.

That doesn’t change that nothing about that tone seemed polite or respectful. I still think you were shading him.

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

And it makes me consider that of the Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall box, Trendall is the townie, which is the impetus for Lunar's case.

Top tier logic over here: someone made a compelling case on someone I think is Mafie. Because the case is so compelling, they must be Town.

I still feel pretty confident for other reasons that Trendall is Mafia

Still thinkin' about that mega suspicious town read I had on you huh?

The straw man graveyard is filling up really fast. Soon we will be all out of straw men and will have to address the real arguments though.

So you think I'm misrepresenting what you're saying, right? Do you think I'm doing it on purpose? What do you think my motives are?

Also don't mind Frogster, he didn't mean anything by it and also isn't as good at reading people as he thinks. It's only a game with strange internet people. We don't know anything.

I feel like every time Gamma posts I become more convinced that he's posting with some agenda rather than because he's trying to solve the game.

Does scum choose to 1v1 you here rather than just kill you? Granted, it's possible Amelie might have taken a bullet for you, but I'm still not sure scum would approach it in this manner.

I'm much more used to passive scum players to be honest. Scum who have an active agenda and plan are pretty few and far between from my experience.

I'll stay open minded though if you want to do that scum case.

Interesting, I'm more used to teams with 1 scum that has an active agenda and tries to plan, at least in some capacity, while the others are either passive or try to follow.

And I'll stay open minded to OutWorldER being the town in Lunar/Bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall or that my PoE is wrong.

Yeah you're way too cocky right now. Please take a second to reset and try to look at things objectively.

The story keeps changing.

Frogster, I thought you were going to rethink and not just tunnel me anymore.

Right now I see two competing theories:

1) Luca, OutWorldER and Lunar are town, Bugs is obvscum possibly along with Trendall and there are one or more deep scum.

2) Galron, Trendall and Bugs are town, Lunar and OutWorldER are obvscum and there is one deep scum who in this scenario I propose as Gamma.

I don't see how in one possibility one person can be 'obvious' and in another possibility the same person can be town. And 'obvscum possibly' is like...

That's a strange thing to latch onto. Clearly it's two competing and mutually exclusive theories. Why are you trying to discredit Frogster so consistently?

Why are YOU trying to discredit Frogster so consistently?

D2: Lunar clearly jumping onto the Mom bandwagon after all it's already 100% going through and all of their attempts to push anyone besides Bugs or Mom have been exhausted

Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom

D3: Lunar's vote progression and fence sitting x2: Now suddenly Galron is obv town despite last mention of being suspicious in D2, and starting MORE counter BWs to Bugs this time siding AGAINST Luca.

Assume there's at least one Mafia member in the neighbor chat.

is this a request or a statement of your thinking?

It's more a warning that there's pretty likely to be one, so be careful claiming stuff in there.

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

I think both remaining Mafia will be found in those two and Gamma. Kinda still think Luca is Town, but I'll feel very good about my Day 1 if Luca is Mafia.

UNVOTE: For now. Vote is there in spirit probably, but there's something odd going on and its too early to end the day anyway.

Galron is kind of obvTown. It's probably Gamma, but otherwise maybe Luca.

For reference, Lunar's last mention of Galron:

Spoiler:

This game feels like it's simpler than it seems and Mafia are mostly coasting by in low-activity slots. Every time we pressure someone they turn out to be Town, or get protected by a claim. That suggests that the scum are in slots we aren't pressuring, or are protected by claims.

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

Without a major revelation I don't think I want to eliminate outside of those four today.

Galron and I have been on the same page about a whole lot of stuff and Galron has made a number of posts I feel Mafia never makes. I can go dig up some posts if you really want, joqiza.

Luca's recent posting has me increasingly convinced that Luca is Mafia.

I believe this recent stuff is self-explanatory and demonstrates a clear pattern in their play. Basically Lunar will FoS Bugs every chance he gets while pushing everyone besides Bugs at all costs, and his reads make no sense and have no progression. The only thing Lunar ever posted that had any kind of case or reasoning behind it was the case on Trendall in 1033, which made no sense in light of the npom vote immediately before in 1032, which made no sense in light of Lunar "town reading" the slot in 1031.

Miscellaneous Lunar quotes I marked for some reason (I'm getting tired)

I should maybe clarify that a lot of what is coming across as me being temperamental is mostly me being sarcastic. ORAM is town here.

Lunar feels the need to qualify himself before outing a town read on ORAM.

I think Grendel is right to point out that ER has been inactive since pressure started to build on them. The pressure consequently dissipated, and they have remained inactive except a quick comment after being prodded.

Lunar narrating scum filler again like the comment on D2 about the vote count.

Oof dislike the way this went down. I hope you all prove me wrong about ORAM though.

Sketch.

I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?

Lunar trying to get any lynch forward besides Bugs. Not even mentioning Mom.

Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom

This is big IMO, Lunar is clearly jumping on the wagon after it's already going through and trying tirelessly to work the Trendall and Gamma angles, despite "FoSing" Mom since the beginning of the day, of course for an unclaimed reason that's never pushed.

Frogster as someone who seems incredibly prone to confirmation bias, I think maybe you should be extra careful with reaction tests. Either you are a Mafia God who basically solved the game Day 1, or you saw exactly what you wanted to see from that test. I still think you're more likely to be Town than Mafia, but I feel like you're verging on being a liability.

Lunar setting up a possible push on me now along with further discrediting, again, Lunar will push or discredit anyone as long as they're town.

Shower thought: Trendall's arguments with me very much feel like Trendall thinks I have bad intentions in the argument, which suggests that Trendall legitimately thinks I'm Mafia, which means Trendall must be Town. That said, Trendall's latest posts saying "I'm Town" repeatedly make me think Trendall is Mafia. Trendall is probably Town, but I'm going to need to rethink that. Getting other perspectives might be helpful too since I'm a little bit too close to get a good read at this point, since I can't see the bigger picture outside of my fight with Trendall very much.

This is another look at Lunar's acting and also another example of fence-sitting so he can push whichever lynch is most likely to go through.

I think all the Mafia are within Mom, Trendall, bugs, and Gamma. I guess I'll vote either person we have a guilty on today and tomorrow, and then I have a preference for Trendall over Gamma the following day.

Question though: how would a tracker have a guilty? Especially if Amelie wasn't the intended kill? Or was Amelie targeted by Mom?

Guess which one he pushes first?

Your avatar or the shit you talked about my PoE is not even remotely helping your case right now.

I’d appreciate it if you didn’t attack me directly.

If my avatar triggers you, please tell me that privately and I’ll change it.
If you disagree with my reads, please comment on those I elaborated on.

If I ever insulted you, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean it. I will try to be nicer in the future
Please do the same. Let’s not make this game toxic

I will be triggered if you change your avatar.

Either way I think 'lunatic' is a bit harsh, even if you didn't mean it to be.

I believe that this is Lunar's authentic self here and not their acting, motivated by his altruism, which along with their conscientiousness and sense of duty to their team, enables Lunar to "turn on" the town tells when Lunar feels like they're underperforming, as long as they're not caught off guard like they were D1 and hopefully now.

LAST POINT N2: Grendel was probably investigating Lunar

I'd like to visit Trendel.

Bugs was already guilted right?

I will check Lunar then, because they were fairly suspected, maybe they did not send in the night kill yet in case of tracker.

Sounds Good!

-/-//-/-/-

man, if i hadnt gotten cold feet on bugs D1 maybe this could've been a straight up perfect town game! I havent had one of those in a Loooong time.

We know now that Grendel wasn't investigating Trendall because Grendel is a traffic analyst. Scum probably didn't KNOW this, but they may have suspected and feared this possibility after 1) Grendel caught Momrangul off guard with the late guilty and 2) I later revealed that I'm unable to investigate Lunar because I'm not a pr, but I suggested him here as a target and together we set the remaining PoE down to Trendall/Lunar anyway. Lunar CAN show up as guilty to the traffic analyst, unlike the Trendall slot or Gamma can, so it makes sense that scum!Lunar would absolutely kill Grendel here, pretty much regardless of what power the pr in the hood has.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Bugspray

Your turn, Lunar. Put your "FoS" back at l-1.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Bugspray
I almost completely agree with the case and my one concern doesn’t really weaken it at all

[Lunar Martian]

Intent to hammer.

[Lunar Martian]

Also, I knew confirmation bias was the most powerful force in the universe, but this is on a level I've never seen before. I might have discovered confirmation bias' power source here.

[Lunar Martian]

I like how me being right plays into me being Mafia.

[ejjinami]

VOTE: Bugspray

Your turn, Lunar. Put your "FoS" back at l-1.

....I’ll just say one thing. I refuse to believe that lunar is scum
I have more trust in analyzing posts I consider “very AI” than unobvious interactions with scum+an unflipped player

If lunar and bug were both scum mom would have been WAY more concerned about the end result. Her voting outside of bug/lunar without fighting for or against any of them could just mean that she didn’t give a crap.

don’t look at mom’s actions, look at her attitude

@All If Mom's motivation here is to create a counter wagon to Bugs, why the %&#* is she making a new one and not pushing the already-existing Lunar wagon which already has town on it?

because bugs is town and mom doesn’t care?
because bugs is scum and mom didn’t want to look as if she was just sheeping?

there are multiple explanations but I really, REALLY doubt lunar is scum here lol.

Ignore my read on him, this team doesn’t make sense interaction-vise either

did mom seem pressured in any way? I don’t think so
did lunar or bugs try to save each other? not really???

lunar was voting bugs. Bugs didn’t give a crap and voted no one the entire time (which already shows that he didn’t feel pressured and imo, IF the majority of the scum-team was under pressure to the point of lunar deciding to bus him, he would have dome SOMETHING)
and then we have mom who completely ignored the fact that lunar is bussing bugs, bugs is being lazy and doing nothing, and she voted on a vanity wagon to save them both???
This doesn’t look like interactions from a dying scum-team. This looks like random interactions of players who don’t give a crap about each other

Intent to hammer.

do not
please wait just a few hours

bugs can’t be scum with luca. If luca is scum, bugs is town
just let me sort that

[ejjinami]

I like how me being right plays into me being Mafia.

you’re scum-reading BOTH luca and bug. You literally can’t be right lol

[ejjinami]

VOTE: Bugspray
I almost completely agree with the case and my one concern doesn’t really weaken it at all

I’m sorry for being rude but do you have any original reads?

[Lunar Martian]

I like how me being right plays into me being Mafia.

you’re scum-reading BOTH luca and bug. You literally can’t be right lol

I'm probably not right on both of them. My solve is bugs and Gamma. I just also find Luca suspicious. I just meant that every time I was right about something, Frogs used that to justify the scumread on me. It's funny. And I'm not going to hammer right away. My reasons for unvoting still stand. But I just wanted to state intent as a way to begin lording Frogster's bad read and tunnel on me over his head.

[Lunar Martian]

VOTE: Bugspray
I almost completely agree with the case and my one concern doesn’t really weaken it at all

I’m sorry for being rude but do you have any original reads?

That vote screams to me "Ahhhh my partner is going down and someone was just encouraged to vote, I need to make sure I get on that wagon ASAP!"