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[Andresvmb]

^yes, this came after my reads list. It’s the first thing that jumped at me looking back.

[Andresvmb]

The only reason I have a vote on now is because the 2 sets of "randlm" quick votes pinged me so hard and someone was on both. Normally day 2 I start looking at the position of people on wagons , trying to work outbwho was scummy. But for once votes looked bad enough that I thought the chances they are scum were high enough to place a vote.

Was Koba on both? Do I have that wrong?

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: polaris

VOTE: jim

I see no reason to eliminate dkkoba today. There will be enough in their posts to sort them later.

Yet you said this about them. So the reasoning behind your vote on me is completely contrived. Alright good to know.

[Cook]

cook, tell me. why are you voting andres when you townleaned him before?

That's the most-voted wagon right now, and deadline is (expired on 2021-01-20 07:44:00) away. The day shouldn't end on a no-elim as that means we have a 0% chance of hitting scum as opposed to a X/13 (I'm going to assume three for math purposes) – that's 23% chance if we lim or a 0% chance if we don't. Then, if/when scum kill, it becomes a 3/12 – 25% chance, but also scum now controls 50% of the vote.
- Limming scum here means 2/11, night-kill means 2/10.
- Limming town here means 3/10, night-kill means 3/9.

Compare that to eliminating. 23% chance to hit scum means one of two things happens:

23% of the time, we hit a scum.

Scum gets a nightkill, and now the balance is 2/11 – 33% of the vote.
• On the off-chance somehow nobody gets nightkilled, that becomes a 2/12 – 33% of the vote.
- Limming scum there means 1/10, night-kill means 1/9.
- Limming town there means 2/11, night kill means 2/10.

77% of the time, we hit a townie.

Scum gets a nightkill, and now the balance is 3/11 – 50% of the vote.
• On the off-chance somehow nobody gets nightkilled, that becomes a 3/12 – 50% of the vote.
- Limming scum there means 2/11, night-kill means 2/10.
- Limming town there means 3/11, night-kill means 3/10.

We eliminate. It's either scum-favorable with a chance of town-favorable to vote, or scum-favorable guaranteed to no-vote.


Tomorrow, we eliminate all liars and gambiters. Hammer voter gets scrutinized, and I put the screws to the novoters.

In summary,

even if it's a bad wagon, it's still better for us to eliminate.

[Andresvmb]

For what it’s worth I think geraintm is saying more than usual.

In my one prior game with him (here) he posted about 5x as much as here within the first 600 posts so I find that kinda surprising.

I should have phrased it more carefully.

I have seen geraintm take some stances as Town, and get shot for it. I have seen geraintm take basically no stances at all, be Town, and survive until the end of the game. But what I’ve mostly seen from geraintm are acknowledgments that early reads are bad, Town basically tends to function with very little early in the game, and that their vote is a crapshoot. Is geraintm playing like that here? I actually don’t think so.

Spoiler:

so are you saying possible scum or just like keep a eye on him?

Both.

[Andresvmb]

Honestly, I agree with Andres reads. From what I can tell, Cook is at E-2, and I am okay with this. But, I am also on-board for a geraintm lynch. They have posted almost no content. SOMEHOW couldn't come up with reads on anyone by post 666:

someone asked for reads.
I don't really have much.
Flea I have no idea what they are on about
DKKoba is talking so much they shouldn't get eliminated today.

Not understanding what someone is saying isn't a read. Thinking someone is saying too much also isn't a read.
And then they admitted in post 735 that quoting without analyzing and lurking around was as good as it's going to get.

Null-town so far but I'm hoping to see more.

this is as good as it gets day 1 from me.

You may want to change up your Day 1 playing style. VOTE: geraintm

do you think geraintm is scum?

I think he is not beneficial to the town based on my case above. I also think it's okay if different players use different arguments to justify their votes, as long as the arguments are logical and make sense. We don't always have to agree on each and every point for why we're voting for the same person.

I kinda feel like you know geraint is town from the way you're talking about him there. Last line of first quote seems to assume so and I'm unsatisfied with the response in the second quote.

Sigh. This makes some sense to me? Votes based on play style are easier to defend outside of straight up Scum Reading someone and trying to defend the why.

[Andresvmb]

Like if I’m Scum, I want to make votes that get me the least amount of heat, or put me in the best position going forward. Using play style as an excuse I dislike because it is always well it’s not my fault type of a defense that comes after when it’s wrong. And it’s harder to pin players that do that.

[Andresvmb]

@bugspray why are you voting me again?

[Andresvmb]

666 from geraintm pings me VOTE: veraintm

Fair enough. That's just 1 wagon. But I still maintain that scumread on them and am a vote that will convert over so there's still that pressure of being low in my PoE atm.

I really don't see a reason to sr a slot just for flaking after rvs, it's a bad read you keep pushing
VOTE: dkkova

VOTE: Jim I dig

VOTE: cook

VOTE: esooa

also page 1 so i wanna fucking say this bullshit

my pronouns are they/them
i am going to report every post that flagrantly[1] misgenders me and let the modteam decide when it's rule breaking starting this year
so far i have one completed game where someone has been banned for misgendering me
please just do the right thing

[1]basiclly doesn't immediately post afterwards correcting self

hey cook you look scummy
VOTE: cook

VOTE: polaris its an rvs vote why so scared

@Mod bugspray has literally never voted me. What the hell is going on with that counter?

[Andresvmb]

I don’t have the time to go cross-check every vote with every vote counter.

@Mod, fix the damn VC’s, they’re definitely wrong.

I am sorry I have fixed the last VC

[geraintm]

@cook
The problem with the entire post you've made is the assumptions on odds on hitting scum/town
Scum can drive wagons away from scum. The odds aren't 3/13, but way less than that. Has anyone ever actually done a study on day 1 scum eliminations in games? My guess would be 5%.
So why throw away a town slot day 1 for free?

[geraintm]

VOTE: polaris

VOTE: jim

I see no reason to eliminate dkkoba today. There will be enough in their posts to sort them later.

Yet you said this about them. So the reasoning behind your vote on me is completely contrived. Alright good to know.

I am pretty sure I said I dont want to eliminate dkkova today because there was so many posts others will be able to solve them later. I said when I voted you it was semi random. And since I placed it, not seen a reason to move it

[Andresvmb]

@nopoint your vote has been on Cook since 93 and you haven’t relented. It even approaches a tunnel. And you don’t have... any other votes at all outside of RVS. What’s your early solve right now?

Just for the record, I think nopoint is most likely not aligned with Egix96/Cook if Scum (or vice versa)

[Andresvmb]

Egix96 (1): Facebones
DkKoba (1): RLotus
Jim Hawkins (1): DkKoba
geraintm (1): bugspray

Not Voting (1): Prince Zuko, Flea The Magician

I would like for these players to either get off their vanity wagons, or begin trying to rally folks to their side.

[Andresvmb]

@Facebones, Egix96 is really not happening - there’s no momentum there, and Egix96 actually has some decent contrarian views. Vote elsewhere.

[Andresvmb]

@DkKoba, your vote seemed fluid up until like 435, and as far as I can tell, you haven’t moved at all. For someone who doesn’t want a No Elim, and doesn’t want Cook, what exactly are you doing? Are you that sure it’s Jim here?

[DkKoba]

@DkKoba, your vote seemed fluid up until like 435, and as far as I can tell, you haven’t moved at all. For someone who doesn’t want a No Elim, and doesn’t want Cook, what exactly are you doing? Are you that sure it’s Jim here?

ye i really want this lim cause im that sure.

im like hoping this isnt testarossa part 2 but like my brain is like FUCKING GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[DkKoba]

i dont think any of the leading wagons are on scum . you know at least one isnt andres

[DkKoba]

i think gera is being rly dumb and if thery get limmed here d1 i wont be sad to see them go cause it will help town either way no matter what they flip


but like im also willing to flash wagon nopoint.

does anyoen actually townread nopoint???

[tris]

cook, tell me. why are you voting andres when you townleaned him before?

That's the most-voted wagon right now, and deadline is (expired on 2021-01-20 07:44:00) away.

At the time you switched your vote, the cook wagon, and the jim wagon were tied.

[DkKoba]

cook pls pull ur head out ur ass

[DkKoba]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[tris]

VOTE: nopoint do you have any other scumreads?

[nopointinactingup]

Cook scum implies dk scum 90% of the time. If you are town and think the last wagon of a series of flash wagon (jim) is on scum you’re really bad at this game.

Your read on cook has no development, your only point on cook is cook responded = cook town, and you’re chainsawing me for thinking he’a scummy.

[nopointinactingup]

@tris: I’ve stated who I think are town, nothing overtly scummy about the people I didn’t mention