TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

[mastina]

xtoxm definitely was lurky in the team mafia normal no?

Xtoxm is one of the lurkiest players onsite. Games where he doesn't lurk are the exception to the general rule. Activity is not a tell--what he posts IS. And from his content that I've seen, I do lean town.

[Dunnstral]

he's scummy but like ??? it's day 1 in a large if either of you flipped town I would be frustrated but not surprised

ABR popping in to say xtoxm is town right before the elim is probably not scum-scum

[mastina]

I refuted your meta by pointing out that he posted 16 times in a day while being ran up, from what you linked. Here he posted once, and it was someone else's thoughts.

And I re-refuted you by showing further games to back up my argument by showing that your argument of "he posts a lot when run up as town, he didn't post a lot here when run up" was wrong.

[mastina]

sorry mastina but you need to catchup because background knowledge is kinda essential to understanding why we are voting abr or xtoxm

Apparently not as the reasons for voting them presented since I have replaced in are summed up as, "they're not doing much, they must be scum" aside from the ABR-stance-on-Xtoxm people jumped on as clearly being TMI.

[Cephrir]

bruh the main thing is how do you tab in after 2 days to a wagon forming on you and your only post. your ONLY post is to paraphrase some shit your teammate said??

not even a "this is fine" meme?? nothing?

Yeah, but do you do that while trying to do at least..something?

kinda fair, this certainly wouldn't be my strat here

[OkaPoka]

what? my reasons for voting xtoxm are because he doubled down on a logical fallacy and im extrapolating that to mean he's inventing reads

and abr vote is because he was playing both sides and sowing paranoia without substance

to sum it up

[Cephrir]

I'm just going to outsiurce my vote to mastin for the rest of day 1.

VOTE: hercules

is this flailing?

[Dunnstral]

They posted 16 times in one day while being ran up
And then at the end after they had been voted out, they posted one more time
It's not the same thing

He also posted like 10 times in one day while being run up when he was scum last team mafia. So posting while being run up is not a town-indicator for him.

The nature of the content when run up IS.

In last year's team mafia, there was a notable reaction to him being run up.

In Jigsaw's Revenge, he had no reaction to being run up.

This was a town game where he didn't post up a storm while run up. He lurked and was mislynched. With no notable reaction to being run up.

For the record, I've been looking over like 10-20 Xtoxm games (looking for games where he was explicitly eliminated during the day regardless of his alignment, so I had to exclude endgamed and survived and nightkilled results), and in the process I have thought that, while Xtoxm is hard to read, that this is still more likely him as town.

Noted. I don't think his 1 post here is enough to get a townread off meta though.

[Dunnstral]

bruh the main thing is how do you tab in after 2 days to a wagon forming on you and your only post. your ONLY post is to paraphrase some shit your teammate said??

not even a "this is fine" meme?? nothing?

Yeah, but do you do that while trying to do at least..something?

kinda fair, this certainly wouldn't be my strat here

It's not fair.

You guys are making the assumption that xtoxm somehow would care more if he were scum than if he were town

There's nothing to back up this assumption, in fact team weight wise both games would be worth the same, but the mafia game would probably be harder to win

[Dunnstral]

So no, he isn't trying to do something, and no, this doesn't make him town

[OkaPoka]

I do not understand the wagon on xtoxm nor how it has come about. Could've missed reasoning, but don't think I have? Composition feels like it sucks, would need a VC to confirm but I've seen some names I don't like on it.

This got ignored at the time but should get an explanation

again the xtoxm wagon is purely because xtoxm

1) had a townread on titus for townreading iv for scumreading her
2) but this reasoning was demonstrably false because titus had townread iv before iv scumread her
3) and xtoxm rather than backing up, doubled down on a faulty premise and also included auro backing himself up


so the argument is xtoxm and auro have decided that they want to townread titus (don't know why) and invented a reason as to why.

me n the worst are voting xtoxm presumably for this reason because it was us two who were quesitoning xtoxm. hercule mentioned xtoxm was in the lhf null scum poe. idk for others.

read this mastina

I've seen so many of these end with a townflip.

why did you vote xtoxm in the first place?

abr, why is xtoxm scum

and for brownie points why is he a better flip than any other flip

As far as I'm concerned he's done little and less to help the town. Spending most of the day not voting is innacptable, and his iso is sparse and underwhelming. Not a slot I'd be sorry to see go.

how am i meant to decide between eliminating xtoxm, eliminating abr, and policying hercule
this game is impossible

It's easy, one is at L-2 and the other two aren't.

and this sorry i dont have analysis here

[mastina]

I feel like this sudden concern about a phantom group of people that are deadset on xtoxm obv scum is made up

tbh i feel similarly to abr so even if it's wrong it might not be made up

My take: the people suspicious of Xtoxm and ABR are largely town but their reasoning sucks ass and they're pushing bad wagons that're on town for what amounts to little more than policy.

These wagons give scum an easy excuse to sheep, or at the very least, not take a hard stance that is difficult to back up, not take stances that they need to justify, to allow them to more or less get away with doing whatever with little consequence, because the biggest names in the town are overly hung up on ABR/Xtoxm which strangles out other voices who'd want to direct attention elsewhere.

I am pretty sure Dann, tw, and now Oka are town, from their pushes here. To a lesser extent, unwnd too.

But I genuinely think they're just fundamentally WRONG in pushing those two slots.

the worst
Dannflor
OkaPoka
Hopkirk

Titus
DrippingGoofball
Albert B. Rampage
Xtoxm
Ythan
unwnd

Dunnstral
Almost50
innocentvillager


Uncrowned

AGar

Cephrir
hercule

This is where I am at. The reads are, "townbloc-locktown, locktown outside of townbloc, lean town but need more to be sure, lean scum, scumread, strong scumread".

[OkaPoka]

please note you can ignore the auro part

[Dunnstral]

I'm just going to outsiurce my vote to mastin for the rest of day 1.

VOTE: hercules

is this flailing?

Not if he thinks xtoxm is town

[OkaPoka]

second one on abr might be a little hard without the context of how abr has been playing and how xtoxm has been playing and thus how they would progress (or not progress) but hopefully its a jump off point

[Cephrir]

Ceph I've loved your posting so far don't become a bitter buffalo cause of mastina

thanks, that helps.

[Dunnstral]

ABR sure didn't explain how his thoughts changed

[DrippingGoofball]

i think there are enough people who want either xtoxm or abr today, its a matter of preference

Count me in.

[DrippingGoofball]

Because the reasons for wagoning ABR and Xtoxm are, largely: objectively shit

No way

They're objectively solid gold.

[Cephrir]

still happy with either wagon, they both seem more founded than your average d1 wagons, slightly prefer the one i'm on at the moment

[unwnd]

who is expressing such certainty that xtoxm is scum

I feel like this sudden concern about a phantom group of people that are deadset on xtoxm obv scum is made up

he's scummy but like ??? it's day 1 in a large if either of you flipped town I would be frustrated but not surprised

My statement was a bit exaggerated for effect, I lead with this in sort of a reactive sense

I do think though that if you're voting someone, you think they're scum

And that was like 8 people lol

[mastina]

what? my reasons for voting xtoxm are because he doubled down on a logical fallacy and im extrapolating that to mean he's inventing reads

You mean 1211? That's it? Instead of...the various other reads he's had, when the logic he used is not actually bad? I don't see it. 642 from Auro mostly but also with Xtoxm giving his own thoughts; 1008 looks good; 1030 also feels hugely organic and natural. That's just from the reads, too; from the more friendly banter and the general stances taken, Xtoxm just feels town here, fluid and natural. I don't see invented reads at all.

and abr vote is because he was playing both sides and sowing paranoia without substance

ABR's 'playing both sides' is inherently not a scumtell here and in this case I'd argue a towntell.

There is absolutely nothing scum in him pushing for the elimination of a slot while believing it will probably flip town and stating as much. That's something he just does. He is light in substance himself, and ironically he could be policy-eliminated for the very same things he's willing to policy-eliminate another slot for, that's fair enough.

But make no mistake that it'd be just that, a policy-elimination.
Don't delude yourself into thinking he's scum for it. He's very much not.

[Winter Flakes]

not sure why ABR is being wagoned

Infinity and I both think he's pre townie

[mastina]

again the xtoxm wagon is purely because xtoxm
1) had a townread on titus for townreading iv for scumreading her
2) but this reasoning was demonstrably false because titus had townread iv before iv scumread her
3) and xtoxm rather than backing up, doubled down on a faulty premise and also included auro backing himself up
so the argument is xtoxm and auro have decided that they want to townread titus (don't know why) and invented a reason as to why.

read this mastina

I'm far from convinced; quite the opposite in fact. According to my dual iso, you made a fundamental fact-checking error. IV votes Titus here, and Titus said IV was town here. Titus said IV was town AFTER IV voted Titus--and a vote on Titus is sufficient to say that IV was suspicious of Titus, no?

So Xtoxm could reasonably deduce that Titus townread IV for scumreading her.

[OkaPoka]

literally read the next like three posts