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[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Lunar

scum!Lunar could play for Gamma and Ejji mis elim's and a three-way end game between Luca, OutWorldER, and Lunar. I don't think that's likely to succeed from their point of view, but not unreasonable at all to continue playing for and probably their best option.

[Luca Blight]

At the end of D1 Momrangal was pushing the Lunar elim a far bit, certainly over Bugs. This is giving me pause, given the last scum would presumably be a decent PR.

[Luca Blight]

But she must have been bussing/distancing on some level, as she pushed/voted all of Lunar/Outworld/Trendall D1.

Lunar is the only one she voted who was close to getting eiminated, however.

[Frogsterking]

I think we should mass claim. In the meantime, VOTE: Gamma

Scum!ejj has made it hard for themselves by hard-defending Lunar, though. That would have been a viable miselim.

Only because of a stupid fucking deathtunnel by someone who can't seem to get over themselves three weeks later. JFC frogster, how is it possible to confirmation bias this consistently after being called out on it? Every bit of evidence gets interpreted as me being Mafia, regardless of what the evidence even is. If something can't be spun as me being Mafia then you ignore it.

VOTE: Gamma

At first I read this as anger, but the context along with the unnecessary second vote still with no Gamma case could be a sign of panic. Definitely Lunar is experiencing some distress here and wants to emphasize the attention on Gamma; which is incongruent with Lunar's own attention which is directed toward myself, which is incongruent in the first place with a game state with two scum consecutively executed, three living clears, and a pr claim.

This also reminds me of Lunar's town read on Galron yesterday which came out of nowhere, which Luca reasoned could be evidence of an inno report on Galron. After Lunar claims VT however we'll know this isn't the case which makes Lunar's claim that Galron is "obv town" more evidence that Lunar is faking that read because Lunar is already planning for Galron to be the night kill.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.

VOTE: Trendall

This bugs me

Is this some sort of hint?

Is Lunar scum traitor, along with a Bugs, Momrangal, ejj scum team?

Just something that caught my eye.

It looks funny but I don’t feel like it’s hinting at anything
Though someone theorized on the traitor possibility earlier, idr who rn

[Frogsterking]

But she must have been bussing/distancing on some level, as she pushed/voted all of Lunar/Outworld/Trendall D1.

Lunar is the only one she voted who was close to getting eiminated, however.

I don't remember this occuring when I was analyzing the D1 wagons. Can you link to the posts you're referring to?

[Luca Blight]

Tbf Frogster Lunar later said they got confused between Galron/Grendell and retracted the obvtown read.

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.15

Trendall(3)

~ Grendel(76), Lunar Martian(56), NoPowerOverMe(128)

Lunar Martian(3)

~ Galron(29), bugspray(48), Frogsterking(74)

bugspray(3)

~ Luca Blight(96), OutWorldER(18), Gamma Emerald(118)

OutWorldER(2)

~ Trendall(36), Momrangal(39)

NoPowerOverMe(1)

~ Amélie(67)

Not Voting (1): ORAM(6)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-01 11:27:58)

FLAVOR

frame 14 out of 19035

VOTE: Trendall

I prefer OWER over Trendall especially if Lunar is scum here. The fact that he doesn't mind OWER and Trendall but votes Trendalls smaller wagon over OWERS larger wagon at the time (by a vote or two) feels like he's trying to push a CW to a possible partner only to leave himself open to bus him towards the end to reduce the association between the two of them.

VOTE: Lunar,

Grendel, how do you feel about Lunar stating he doesn't mind offing OWER and Trendall yet choosing the smaller wagon betwen the two?

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?

That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random

Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.

OWER/Trendall/NPOM was always his scum team, until more started going up against OWER more.


More notably, I found this on a quick iso to double check

Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.

This came after his vote, and after Frog acknowledged that I may have something here. There were multiple wagons at the time, and it feels like newbscum sticking to some scumreads to look like they are generating them early on and sticking to their reads and falling back on just one of them when others start looking more into it.

Also at this time, Trendall was popular. If two scum are in the POE pool d1 it makes sense as a survivalistic move to try and move over to a townie that's under scrutiny to save them

Here's the context where Momrangel jumps on the Lunar wagon.

I'm not sure about scum vs scum wagon dynamics, I guess on principle they try to create a counter wagon and then when that fails they have to choose one for a bus?

[Luca Blight]

Momrangal pushed Outworld most of D1, but the wagon never gained much interest.

VOTE: Trendall

I prefer OWER over Trendall especially if Lunar is scum here. The fact that he doesn't mind OWER and Trendall but votes Trendalls smaller wagon over OWERS larger wagon at the time (by a vote or two) feels like he's trying to push a CW to a possible partner only to leave himself open to bus him towards the end to reduce the association between the two of them.

Makes this vote when the wagons were tied 3 apiece for Bugs, Trendall and Lunar.

VOTE: Lunar,

Spoiler: more stuff

Grendel, how do you feel about Lunar stating he doesn't mind offing OWER and Trendall yet choosing the smaller wagon betwen the two?

OWER/Trendall/NPOM was always his scum team, until more started going up against OWER more.


More notably, I found this on a quick iso to double check

Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.

This came after his vote, and after Frog acknowledged that I may have something here. There were multiple wagons at the time, and it feels like newbscum sticking to some scumreads to look like they are generating them early on and sticking to their reads and falling back on just one of them when others start looking more into it.

Also at this time, Trendall was popular. If two scum are in the POE pool d1 it makes sense as a survivalistic move to try and move over to a townie that's under scrutiny to save them

No one here is willing to elim anyone except you and bugspray.

This isn't true, and no I'm not counter-claiming bugs here. Most wagons that have been put on the table today have had support for them, and votes moving towards them.

At the same time, I'm having a harder time convincing OWER to take off.


I would like to see a Lunar scum flip here, tbh because it brings clarity to two other slots in my opinion

[Luca Blight]

Ah, I see you found it already.

[Luca Blight]

I feel like Momrangal could easily have pushed Trendall there instead, if Trendall was Town and Lunar scum.

[Frogsterking]

At the end of D1 Momrangal was pushing the Lunar elim a far bit, certainly over Bugs. This is giving me pause, given the last scum would presumably be a decent PR.

Perhaps the scum team was prioritizing Bugs ability to enter the hood and find the remaining PRs, and/or perhaps Momrangal has played with Bugs before and was prioritizing their ability to work together over whatever role Lunar has. Bugs made a comment about Momrangal not allowing the scum chat to become toxic which makes me suspect they're won or played together as scum before.

[Frogsterking]

I feel like Momrangal could easily have pushed Trendall there instead, if Trendall was Town and Lunar scum.

Yeah. I'll give it some time.

UNVOTE: Lunar

[Luca Blight]

Although if ejj is the last scum then I guess they can't win anyway.

[Frogsterking]

TBH I do not see scum!Ejji stalling in this way with his claim, which is exactly what it is.

Ejji can make a play where he makes this claim and no-kills to incriminate OutWorldER, but that type of play may be against the rules here (I don't know how "stalemate" is handled here), and even if he can convince town to execute instead of NLing for mylo, he will be executed the next day after OutWorldER's flip.

I don't see a win condition to motivate scum!ejji to continue playing but I do see one for scum!Lunar.

[Frogsterking]

Although if ejj is the last scum then I guess they can't win anyway.

TBH I do not see scum!Ejji stalling in this way with his claim, which is exactly what it is.

Ejji can make a play where he makes this claim and no-kills to incriminate OutWorldER, but that type of play may be against the rules here (I don't know how "stalemate" is handled here), and even if he can convince town to execute instead of NLing for mylo, he will be executed the next day after OutWorldER's flip.

I don't see a win condition to motivate scum!ejji to continue playing but I do see one for scum!Lunar.

Yup.

[Luca Blight]

I do think that Momrangal's 'this bugs me' post was intentional. Perhaps as a deliberate clue - so after the game they can say 'look, I told you who was scum here but you missed it'.

I've seen scum do stuff like that before, but not often.

[Luca Blight]

Lunar's Gamma double vote was weird anyway, so we'll see.

[Frogsterking]

Although if ejj is the last scum then I guess they can't win anyway.

TBH I do not see scum!Ejji stalling in this way with his claim, which is exactly what it is.

Ejji can make a play where he makes this claim and no-kills to incriminate OutWorldER, but that type of play may be against the rules here (I don't know how "stalemate" is handled here), and even if he can convince town to execute instead of NLing for

mylo*

, he will be executed the next day after OutWorldER's flip.

I don't see a win condition to motivate scum!ejji to continue playing but I do see one for scum!Lunar.

Yup.

Because it wouldn't be a real

mylo*

, just suboptimal to execute, town has a million mislynches in this setup.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar's Gamma double vote was weird anyway, so we'll see.

How high would you estimate the potential of OutWorldER being misread in this game?

[Luca Blight]

I thought he was definitely Town, but now I'm not so sure as I can see reasons to believe all of {Lunar, Outworld, ejj} are Town, and Momrangal has distanced from all of them.

[Frogsterking]

I thought he was definitely Town, but now I'm not so sure as I can see reasons to believe all of {Lunar, Outworld, ejj} are Town, and Momrangal has distanced from all of them.

How has Lunar's meta differed from the other game(s) you've played with them? Any way that might be AI?

[Frogsterking]

I've been trying to avoid reading off of meta this game but I might crack and take a look at Lunar and OutWorldER.

[Luca Blight]

Lunar D1 here wasn't similar at all, which is why I SR them D1 (not knowing at the time they were actually scum in the other game I was playing with them).

Lunar's play since then has been closer to their play that game, but I wouldn't want to base a meta read off of it. All I can say is that Lunar!scum is able to make some Townie looking posts.

[ejjinami]

ok nvm, lemme trust myself once more.
I’m reading over the stuff on lunar and got the exact same feeling I got last time... xd

I literally can’t scum-read his posts.