TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

[OkaPoka]

how much of this game have you kept up with/who should we be looking at to yeet from your eyes?

[OkaPoka]

my turn to do some coloring

"the bloc"

{okapoka, ducky, danny, cephrir, hercule}

"the bloc's allies of convenience (people who are doing their own things that happen to align with the bloc) aka the BAC

{dunny, unwnd, hopkirk, IV}

"the opposition"

{xtoxm, abr, winter flakes, a50, agar, mastina}

unaligned

{ythan, titus, dgb}

The bloc is defined as the group of people who all are vibe checking each other and for the most part, mutually back each other enough to the point where they have very similar PoE's, are pushing similar people to get flipped, have been on wagons with each other multiple times for the sake of trusting each other. They are on very similar wavelengths to the point where if someone posts something scummy, they can all sync up their minds and wagon someone very quickly without explanation, or at least they like to think so, because there may be pretenders to the cause. Agent OkaPoka is the lead hyperposter who seems to avoid scumreads from most members of the opposition, but other members of the bloc are not so fortunate. Agent the_worst Codename: ducky seems to be the primary target of the deepwolf label by most members of the opposition. Ceph and Hercule are both significant targets of the scumread and are accused of being opportunistic with the timing? of their posting, aka active lurking? Dannyboi aka the Charisma seems to have the least but still has deep seated fears about being the real deepwolf. But the bloc continues to chug along, even though I suspect all members of the bloc have a suspicion to who in the bloc has been buddying and pocketing the rest of them, but they want to keep their fears private for the near future and look for the other wolves.

The bloc's allies of convenience aka the BAC are people who have a lot with the bloc to the point where they might as well be part of the bloc but for whatever reasons are not. Members like Dunnstral has largely aligned with the desires of the bloc through his posting and voting pattern, but does not participate in the bloc's many uncertainties and continuous cyclical vote swapping. Unwnd is a person who has completely aligned himself with the bloc even with expressed apprehension towards the bloc and expression that the alliance is only out of convenience for the elongated day. Hopkirk appears to align himself with the bloc in the sense that he trusts most of the bloc, but appears to push people outside of the bloc at his own discretion mainly. IV pretty much isn't doing much and seems to express a sense of not knowing what's happening but continuously aligns himself with the bloc with the way he votes and is swung by what the bloc wants.

The opposition represents the members who have openly expressed a deep disliking for the existence of the bloc and the desire to kill multiple members of the bloc, today. The opposition, though seemingly fragmented at points, at this point have been united in their mutual townreads for each other and scumreads for different members of the bloc. They have repeatedly sowed paranoia into the bloc and labelled bloc activities as driven by policy on obvious town, and have been largely united in openly defending each other and question the bloc's intentions. However united they are in agreeing that there are at least 2 members of the bloc who are scum, they are split apart by who they actually want to flip today, largely by their own volition in xtoxm refusing to play the game, abr purposely splitting his vote away from others, and flakes seemingly only concerned with chainsaws. A50, it's hard to tell what he is trying to do, but his actions does speak to essentially protecting other members of the opposition while purging members of the bloc or others. AGar/mastina are members of the opposition whom I was thinking about including one or the other, however they are probably not united nor are they aligned the same. But I will leave them both in the opposition because in the end, they do try and protect other members of the opposition through their actions, want to yeet members of the bloc, and express a strict opposition to bloc activities (although I will say mastina seems to undermine the bloc more than agar). Many members of the opposition townread at least one, if not both of these individuals, in spite of them trying to yeet the other one off. Interesting dynamic to say the least.

The last grouping are the wildcards, the neutral, the unaligned. The people who I can't categorize because they have played both sides or in the case of ythan, really played no side. These members are also unaligned because neither the bloc nor the opposition really want to claim them as their own or their allies and honestly, they don't really have unified people who are defending them. These are the true low hanging fruit, the people who will probably be the target of a compromise wagon if forced, because townreads on them are not expressed in unison, and most people feel nullish on them. Of course there are townreads on members and dgb is one of the more polarizing members of the neutrals, but in the end, when the chips are down, neither the bloc nor the opposition will go to bat for members in the neutral, unless they feel like they can get a flip without needing to compromise. Maybe some individuals from the bloc and the opposition will, but it will not be enough to swing the rest of the group.


this is how im grouping the game ~ and I think scum have divided themselves into these groups because if I were scum this is how I would have positioned the game out. but i will say if any grouping has two scums, its in the opposition (but im biased).

distribution in my head probably looks like 1 1 1 1 or 1 0 2 1 or 1 1 2 0 or 0 1 2 1

[Xtoxm]

he was thinking of bandwagoning when he made this comment. the same more vocal players voting in a clump, and feels this has restricted momentum on any other read, no strain created by the votes, or counterwagon interaction.
he also wishes to say he hasn't had a chance to do a deep dive into the game, so his reads are a little on the surface, but he plans to do this if our slot remains in the game.
(bad paraphrasing)

how much of this game have you kept up with/who should we be looking at to yeet from your eyes?

more than you might think.
my weaker reads (4th line and below, possibly 3rd if someone i tr really presses me), but i'm unlikely to vote tw today.
i'm not really thinking about voting at the moment.

p-ed
ooh wall

[Xtoxm]

The opposition represents the members who have openly expressed a deep disliking for the existence of the bloc and the desire to kill multiple members of the bloc, today.

i feel like this is a gargantuan stretch wrt myself

[OkaPoka]

The opposition represents the members who have openly expressed a deep disliking for the existence of the bloc and the desire to kill multiple members of the bloc, today.

i feel like this is a gargantuan stretch wrt myself

its harder to label the opposition party as one unifying ideology because the very nature of an opposition party invites a big tent coalition-y type feel where they exist simply to oppose another but 'ideologically' they can be a mixed bag

you have expressed a dislike from the 'bandwagon' which i presume is the bloc, but i suppose you are unique in that you dont want to flip anyone so far it seems

[OkaPoka]

but the very point of this exercise was also to depict how yes the bloc is circlejerky but you'd be blind not to see that the opposition is not as well

the difference is that members of the opposition have the ability to claim the benefits of the opposition where they can't be guilty of gamestate stuff because they are the "minority"

[Albert B. Rampage]

The blockheads are just people who tried very hard to lynch xtoxm agar and me for 115 pages despite some of us being townread by a50 mastina and uncrowned. There, I saved you a wall.

[Albert B. Rampage]

We would easily work together if we focused on common threats but Oka thinks in terms of allies and enemies with xtoxm agar as the dividing line.

[DrippingGoofball]

I enjoyed OkaPoka's psychological analysis so much, I can cancel my appointment with my therapist.

[OkaPoka]

We would easily work together if we focused on common threats but Oka thinks in terms of allies and enemies with xtoxm agar as the dividing line.

if you read my post you'd realize what im saying is that both sides have a wolf in them and the last thing we want to do is try and compromise on someone people feel meh on because that's the most susceptible path to manipulation

[AGar]

@Dann

From the earlier notes:

Spoiler: [post=#12522269]840[/post]

- worst early posting feels forced. idk. colored by the fact that his defense of me feels like an attempt to gain easy towncred. I like 138, I hate 141.
- Dunn hopping onto IV after the worst/unwnd back and forth. This whole interaction stinks.
- Worst in 537 & 539 is weird. Didn't like it, nor did the team. Could be town, but feels very convenient for scum to say I'm town preempting the yeet to point back to.
- Concerned about worst's stance wrt me, feels very off and weird and like trying to get that credit. Not TMIing, but also don't love the vibe. Could be paranoia, but mild scumlean.

I generally don't like when folks openly put reads together off of incomplete information and insist on current engagement. It gives them the appearance of engaging, while allowing deeply flawed reads that get picked at so they are capable of amending them and then everything they read is soaked in confirmation bias at best. At worst, it gives scum cover to manipulate their reads to appear to be contributing while also making safe reads that keep their asses out of the jackpot.

The biggest shift for me was that post 1567 was straight up TMIing. He had to go back and justify a town read and he slipped - when I was run up I wasn't "doing content", I had like 5 posts. 2 were at you in the early phase, then there was my post that got me run up, a snarky reply about "I dared vote for ABR" and then my spat with Ceph. When I called him out on it, he handwaved it off that I was "nitpicking." (1632)

Smaller things that have bugged me and added to my suspicion:

He started oddly picking on the split vote post in 853 and felt the need to draw out a wild nothingburger over a few posts for... reasons? He kept trying to engage it after I admitted I just had fried brains and it felt very much forced and more of "oh look at me engaging!"

We've got him asking for an elaboration on a read in 1176 and then I give it in 1361 and then... silence. Why even ask if you have no intention of engaging/acknowledging?

Given the wagons of me (twice)/ABR/xtoxm (twice): I'm town. I feel very strongly that ABR is town. I am leaning scum on xtoxm but that's contingent on other flips. His reaction: weak/awkward calling mine town, and then on all of the rest. I've pointed out that xtoxm's response in 2560 earlier felt awfully sure of themselves for someone sitting at E-2 and that had been threatened to eat a hammer unless you knew you had scumbuddies on the wagon who were going to pull the ripcord in order to make sure you didn't die. Worst was on that wagon and then pulled the ripcord 40 posts later.

[Albert B. Rampage]

If we pressure more people we will have better reads and form more visible connections. It's stubbornness and self-preservation that will make us mislynch at this point.

[Albert B. Rampage]

We would easily work together if we focused on common threats but Oka thinks in terms of allies and enemies with xtoxm agar as the dividing line.

if you read my post you'd realize what im saying is that both sides have a wolf in them and the last thing we want to do is try and compromise on someone people feel meh on because that's the most susceptible path to manipulation

I got bored around the middle, it was too long. No more colors.

Fine well how about Cephrir???

[OkaPoka]

We would easily work together if we focused on common threats but Oka thinks in terms of allies and enemies with xtoxm agar as the dividing line.

if you read my post you'd realize what im saying is that both sides have a wolf in them and the last thing we want to do is try and compromise on someone people feel meh on because that's the most susceptible path to manipulation

I got bored around the middle, it was too long. No more colors.

Fine well how about Cephrir???

look im not going to go around pressuring people without a good reason, and pressure for the sake of pressure isn't it

if i vote ceph right now ceph is just going to laugh and know at the end of the line, im not going to flip him, and that's NAI for him because why would it, its common sense

write a good case on him, do a back and forth, if he's scummy then sure

but just voting for the sake of voting isn't going to get us anywhere when we clearly have info to work with, its not rvs anymore

[OkaPoka]

just a pro tip to make your posts more readable @agar, use quote tags instead of post tags so we dont have to click around (especially helpful when mobile viewing the game)

[Albert B. Rampage]

Why do you think the decision to flip someone solely lies in whether or not ***you*** think they are scum? You are a small part in a big wagon. The risk is outside voters jump on, and it will go through, not that you will keep your vote or not. We will detect the people who are loudly protesting and wanting to keep the pool small. This will be evidence. I don't understand your style of scumhunting of pulling apart day 1 posts and looking whoever is lurking, active lurking, saying manipulative things, or whatever it is. In my experience that isn't effective.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I have asked my team. One game is locked and maybe I can get some help with your style of scumhunting from norwee morningtweet or firebringer.

[OkaPoka]

okay let's dissect this, why do you want my vote if im going to be a small part of a big wagon that will inevitably leave?

[Albert B. Rampage]

distribution in my head probably looks like 1 1 1 1 or 1 0 2 1 or 1 1 2 0 or 0 1 2 1

I agree the scum are split in the different groups you made, and there's 0-2 scum in each group. I need your help because beating up on xtoxm and Agar doesn't look like it's getting us anywhere.

[OkaPoka]

well beating up xtoxm made me move you into the scumpile in the sense that i think you are TMI'ng and beating up agar makes me think mastina/agar are antialigned

[Albert B. Rampage]

okay let's dissect this, why do you want my vote if im going to be a small part of a big wagon that will inevitably leave?

It's simply macro strategy, I want everyone to help building bandwagons so we can collect evidence. I haven't been appealing just to you.

[OkaPoka]

who else have you been appealing to?

[Albert B. Rampage]

well beating up xtoxm made me move you into the scumpile in the sense that i think you are TMI'ng and beating up agar makes me think mastina/agar are antialigned

That's fine. For me xtoxm looks null-town and agar looks town. We can have differences on a tactical level and still work together on macro strategy. I just have not collected enough data to say someoone is scum with a high level of confidence even though I fake it day 1 for pressure's sake.

[Albert B. Rampage]

who else have you been appealing to?

DGB, hercules, cephrir

[Albert B. Rampage]

Phone is dying and I'm going to keep watching the expanse before dinner time. Earth must come first OkaPoka.