TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

[innocentvillager]

i don't believe *town!xtoxm* asked team to proofread reads

[Dannflor]

It’s not laziness mastina

It’s actually the right thing to do today

[mastina]

nah i don't believe xtoxm asked team to proofread reads in the team PT when they supposedly don't care about this game

Doesn't need to be asking team to proofread.

You can make drafts for posts in a PT with no need for the team to preview;
You can craft a post using a PT without posting it in the PT and after crafting it in the PT post it to the game thread.

The PT slip is grasping at straws.

[mastina]

It’s not laziness mastina
It’s actually the right thing to do today

And when he flips town will it still have been the right thing to do?

To have policy-lynched on D1 just because he's a popular scumread for crap reasons?

It's not a good elimination; it IS a lazy one. The reasons are lazy; the wagon is lazy; it is, explicitly. Laziness.

I'm not going to fight the wagon.

But don't pretend it's not lazy; it is.
Xtoxm doesn't deserve to be defended; he's not worth it and nobody would shed a tear at his townflip.

But if you think he's gonna flip scum you're being delusional. He's town. He's just town that frankly deserves to die.

[innocentvillager]

You can craft a post using a PT without posting it in the PT and after crafting it in the PT post it to the game thread.

imo this doesn't make sense because why would they draft the post in their team PT without posting it in the team PT (sorry idk Xtoxm pronouns they're not in the sig im gonna with "they" until otherwise specified)

You can make drafts for posts in a PT with no need for the team to preview;

imo this one is not impossible but still weird for the same reason. why would you draft a post in the team PT, post it, then immediately post it in the game thread if not to ask for the opinion of your team members? if i am town and don't care about a game, why would I effort and double write posts in a PT at all?

The PT slip is grasping at straws.

kind of but it's also a very important piece of information about their alignment? do you have any other hypotheses for why town!Xtoxm does this then?

pedit: mastina none of us would want to eliminate them if they were an IC. I know im missing some context here but i think you are shouting at a brick wall when you say "Xtoxm is definitely town but go ahead and eliminate them regardless!" because I guarantee you almost none of us are on this wagon thinking they're rand +town (excluding scum tmi)

[OkaPoka]

IV do you feel involved now

[AGar]

just a pro tip to make your posts more readable @agar, use quote tags instead of post tags so we dont have to click around (especially helpful when mobile viewing the game)

Not my style to quote stripe to be honest. I'll try evenutally.

Btw, Oka, 2880 and 2875 are in direct conflict with one another.

So my thing is that the entire xtoxm wagon sprung up based on the interpretation that Oka had that mastina was arguing against. So you just decided to keep your mouth shut about it? Or did you not read it that way?

?? I'm in a bit of a loss. What does Xtoxm has to do with an argument about Titus between Oka and mastina?????

You're joking, right? The core of the wagon growing on Xtoxm centers around an interpretation of Titus's post supposedly made by Xtoxm being defended by mastina, very much opposite of how Oka (and others) interpreted that post, to the point of most suspecting Xtoxm making up a TR of Titus.

ythan - he had one post that pinged me 728

"You are not authorized to read this topic"

This was probably approved by the rest of his team before-hand.

FWIW, I think I noticed an issue with the [ post ] tags earlier in this game but chugged ahead anyways. I don't remember where but I'm pretty sure one of mine directed to another thread.

---

2915 would be brilliant if no one was paying attention because it pegs Cephrir against a wall regarding a leading wagon except that the IV wagon never had a chance of taking off and no wagon on D1 outside of myself, Xtoxm, ABR, and to a lesser extent, Titus, has taken off. Portraying IV as ever being in danger or a legitimate bad wagon is bad faith to the nth power.

---

is there more to this later or is the argument just "and nothing since has improved it"

Nothing since has improved, mostly. She's taken a backseat, still held to her belief that I'm scum despite admitting in a post that she needed to look over some posts because "that many people [townreading AGar] can't be wrong" and then never following up on that that I saw. She's skated by on a lot of soft shit and trying to buddy up to mastina since her entrance.

---

I need a different mindset than the one I'm in right now to respond to 2940, one where I haven't had some drinks. I disagree with a lot of it and the characterizations by the worst, but of course I do because they don't strike me as good faith.

---

2947 is so hilariously bad. So so bad. Like just stop. Just. Stop. Yet, 2959 is worse.

---

Mastina's insistence on defending the xtoxm slot - even though she says it's not worth it and despite saying she's no longer defending him in a post where she challenges the very idea of yeeting him - is enough for me to finally be fucking over this.

I need a votecount to be sure, but consider this intent to vote and potentially hammer if he's close enough. No one's going to fucking take to yeeting the actual scumbag who's derailing the town here, so let's take to yeeting her pet.

[OkaPoka]

okay i havent read the entire wall yet agar but the reason why i wanted just another day is mathblade replaced into our team which means another pair of eyes to look you know?

[AGar]

okay i havent read the entire wall yet agar but the reason why i wanted just another day is mathblade replaced into our team which means another pair of eyes to look you know?

Fair but also this game is just hitting a point of being fucking untenable for Day 1. I appreciate wanting your new teammate involved but I think it's a greater detriment to the town to extend for a player who isn't in the game at this point.

[AGar]

Like I am legitimately fucking exhausted with this game Oka. I seriously wish to some extend y'all had speed yeeted me 70 fucking pages ago.

[OkaPoka]

okay when we get to hammer just let me know ill give some team reads and such

[OkaPoka]

to avoid the pending drama that may ensue

[Albert B. Rampage]

I agree with AGar. If we're not going to vote scum today, then we'll get rid of dead weight today and resume this tomorrow.

VOTE: xtoxm

[DrippingGoofball]

Doesn't need to be asking team to proofread.

You can make drafts for posts in a PT with no need for the team to preview;
You can craft a post using a PT without posting it in the PT and after crafting it in the PT post it to the game thread.

As if a lurksack is going to go through all this trouble.

[mastina]

imo this doesn't make sense because why would they draft the post in their team PT without posting it in the team PT (sorry idk Xtoxm pronouns they're not in the sig im gonna with "they" until otherwise specified)

Convenience, if there's material to reference from the team PT--which as Xtoxm was referencing teammates, there very explicitly was. I've done this before. When I have a post to make inthread, drafting it in the PT without posting it to there because there's material from the PT to use in the thread.

imo this one is not impossible but still weird for the same reason. why would you draft a post in the team PT, post it, then immediately post it in the game thread if not to ask for the opinion of your team members?

To proofread it yourself--no need for a teammate to proofread it if you yourself have a use for a proofread.

I do this all the time, because I have an adhd-ridden brain that also works on an autistic wavelength, so having the ability to visualize what I've said in thread helps.

if i am town and don't care about a game, why would I effort and double write posts in a PT at all?

Xtoxm doesn't not-care per se. This is standard fare for Xtoxm; he almost never "cares", so to speak. Xtoxm might be so worthless he's not worth saving, but that doesn't mean he's not going to put in literally zero effort. He's putting as close to zero effort in as is possible without being zero effort, but it's not literally zero effort. And in a state where it's not literally zero effort...crafting a post in the PT is something that's likely to happen.

do you have any other hypotheses for why town!Xtoxm does this then?

Sure: playstyle combined with this being Team Mafia.

I guarantee you almost none of us are on this wagon thinking they're rand +town (excluding scum tmi)

Yes well you're being dummy dum dums in doing so because he's certainly not +scum here. He's null-at-worst; he's town by small things here and there that I've explained, combined with him not matching anyone as being his scumbuddies (seriously, who's his scumbuddies? Do you have a good answer? I certainly don't), combined with other slots being far more likely scum.

There's damn good reasons for him being town and the 'reasons' for him to be scum are lazy.

[mastina]

okay i havent read the entire wall yet agar but the reason why i wanted just another day is mathblade replaced into our team which means another pair of eyes to look you know?

Actually come to think of it.
I seem to recall.
Doesn't MathBlade have kinda...a lot of experience playing with Xtoxm?
I could be wrong about that, you should definitely ask him about that, but for some reason it randomly popped into my head as some sort of fact; for some reason, I seem to have in my mind that MB has extensively played with Xtoxm and put effort into reading him before.

If I'm not mistaken (I very, very easily could be, but if I'm right), I'd love to hear his thoughts there.

[mastina]

As if a lurksack is going to go through all this trouble.

He can and would.

Xtoxm is a lurksack but he doesn't do literally zero effort.
Just

close

to zero effort.

Drafting a post in a team PT is exactly the sort of post that would be close to zero effort for him to do.

[implosion]

A000142: Factorial numbers: n! = 1*2*3*4*...*n (order of symmetric group S_n, number of permutations of n letters).

1, 1, 2, 6, 24, 120, 720, 5040, 40320, 362880, 3628800, 39916800, 479001600, 6227020800, 87178291200, 1307674368000, 20922789888000, 355687428096000, 6402373705728000, 121645100408832000, 2432902008176640000, 51090942171709440000, 1124000727777607680000

Link

Vote Count 1.19

Xtoxm

(7): Dunnstral, Dannflor, unwnd, OkaPoka, DrippingGoofball, innocentvillager, Albert B. Rampage

AGar

(4): Ythan, mastina, the worst, Hopkirk

Cephrir

(2): Almost50, Titus

mastina

(1): AGar

Ythan

(1): hercule

Dannflor

(1): Winter Flakes

Not Voting

(2): Xtoxm, Cephrir

With 18 alive, it takes 10 votes to eliminate. Deadline is set for January 29, 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2021-01-29 21:00:00).

[Dannflor]

Look, here's the deal, I'm not being delusional. I've read your case for xtoxm. I've read your meta on xtoxm. There is not a reason to town read xtoxm.

I can understand not scum reading xtoxm. I can understand thinking that xtoxm is just a lurker who hasn't really done anything alignment indicative. But frankly, you are conf-biasing in your town cases of them and to say they are definitively flipping town means you are either lying to us or you are lying to yourself.

The fact that xtoxm has not started hyper posting to keep up with the game thread even though there is a wagon on him does not a town case make. Let's ignore the fact that he is fully capable of lurking as both alignments. Let's even pretend this matches his town meta exactly (it doesn't), and realize that it goes out the window when xtoxm explicitly says coming into the game that he's taking an approach to this game that's fundamentally different from how he usually does. There is nothing to say xtoxm can't break his meta and IF IT WERE as obvious and clear as day that xtoxm is town based on meta as you seem to think mastina, then that is all the more reason for xtoxm to choose to react in that way.

None of that matters. Actually, none of that matters. Because, more than likely, the reason for his supposed very alignment indicative disappearance and non-posting in light of being run-up, is just due to not being able to keep up with a hyper posting thread. Like, there is very little reason to assume it was a combination of lack of time and inability to keep up when his first post after being wagoned comes 700 posts after his last. You can't really ascribe anything town indicative regarding that disappearance. You can maybe make a scum case out of it, but more than likely it is NAI. His first post coming back is a direct response to the wagon on him, after which he disappears again. I don't think it's in good faith to argue "xtoxm just wouldn't disappear here as scum" when you can't possibly say with any reasonable confidence that xtoxm's disappearances aren't just like entirely out of his control. Again, I'm being very charitable here and assuming the whole meta argument as framed by mastina is entirely correct as well.

When he comes back again, xtoxm gives the excuse that he's stopped caring and is "barely reading." The latter statement is odd considering responded to several posts regarding reads on him and his wagon in his last post. But they were through Auro so it's possible only his team mate is really reading at this point.

He then makes #2560, which does show xtoxm has at least caught up at this point, but is also a completely unreasonable response given he's said he's barely reading and then shortly after says that he "stopped caring and made that clear." Given that xtoxm was largely absent except for one or two uncaring posts, it's just a really weird 'dunk' on me to make when I've tried to reach out to him multiple times and he's apparently read enough to at least know he was about to be hammered. Personally, I feel like this post doesn't really reflect a mindset of someone who is thinking about the game critically. The shade towards me just feels like the type of post scum thinks is a really great "gotcha" moment, but if xtoxm is town I think he realizes why I say that? Maybe I am reading too much into this post because it is directed towards me and it made me miffed, but it really doesn't feel townie.

As he comes back and starts posting more content, there just seems to be a lot of contradiction between how much xtoxm seemingly cares or doesn't care. He has stopped caring and seemingly hasn't read much, but has also kept up with the game "more than one might think," and then there's the reads list. I'm not going to argue one way or another what type of PT slip the link issue is or that it's more likely scum PT or not. It could be either and I don't know what xtoxm's dynamic with his team is, it seems like auro has done half the content in this game for xtoxm, so it maybe makes some sense. However, the fact that he possibly had this list run by his teammates is completely incongruent with his own statements that he clearly stopped caring about the game. It's also incongruent with the reasons mastina is town reading xtoxm! I also just find it highly unlikely xtoxm would want to run his reads by auro first when he admittedly hasn't had a chance to deeply read the game and has surface level reads. No matter how you spin it, it's a manufactured post, which makes me think xtoxm does care about his slot is perceived and consequently is caring enough about this game for the too scummy to be scum arguments to hold no weight.

Essentially, I'm not even arguing these point to scum!xtoxm. While I do think xtoxm has decent equity to flip scum, I would not be at all surprised if he flips town. All I'm saying is that the repeated assertions that xtoxm is definitively town are bunk, based on nothing concrete, and its delusional to keep repeating such a statement as fact. xtoxm is null at best. scummy at worst.

=======

The real reason why it's smart to kill off xtoxm today is simply because we're going to have to eventually. He has scum equity. And I don't think this slot is ever going to pull itself out of the PoE by virtue of suddenly posting amazing content. Auro has promised an ambiguous deeper dive if the slot survive but like, we still have 7 days left on the deadline so I'm not sure why Auro isn't desperately asking for a few more days to get this deeper dive going and prove this slot is town. Honestly, I think its an empty promise. A significant portion of the player list is going to come back to this slot day after day if we don't eliminate it. If xtoxm truly has stopped caring about the game, this isn't going to stop. No amount of brow beating by mastina or even ABR is really going to stop this. The towniness has to come from xtoxm, and from what I've seen, this isn't going to happen. Consequently, if the slot is town, xtoxm is never getting night killed. I don't want to see this slot near f3! Truly, I feel it's a no brainer at this point to eliminate a slot that doesn't seem to care, has a relatively decent amount of scum equity, and has had multiple counter wagons + people defending / pushing him.

It's not lazy. It's healthy for the game state, has a chance at hitting scum, and progresses the game forward SO THAT we can focus on other slots.

What happens to the xtoxm slot if we wagon Agar or mastina or cephrir or the worst or fucking hercule today? What happens to xtoxm tomorrow? How do people's perceptions of the slot change? Does xtoxm suddenly start caring about the game again now that they're not being wagoned? If xtoxm didn't care as town being put at el-1 than why would he care at any other point? All we have is a vague promise from Auro but that seems like a really shitty reason to keep a slot alive that has multiple good reasons to just get rid of.

It's not a lazy choice; it's smart.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Yeah I don't think he's going to play or be replaced. Voting him now is better than later.

[Albert B. Rampage]

He hasn't even voted anyone all day. If anyone deserves the yeet, it's him, we at least keep the players who want to play in the game.

[DrippingGoofball]

Drafting a post in a team PT is exactly the sort of post that would be close to zero effort for him to do.

Proof?

[mastina]

There is not a reason to town read xtoxm.

There is: his read progression actually looks fluid in a town manner.

Beyond that: there's an overwhelming gut feeling. It's not based on the wagon on him, it's not based on the push on him, it's not a gut feeling of "this is wrong" in regards to wagoning him. The gut feeling is just that he's town. Strongly so. Beyond the, admittedly sparse (but literally everything is sparse given how much he's given), reasons to townread him, that gut is enough on its own.

When I say I have zero doubts he is town, I mean it--no confbias, no tunnel vision involved, no hatred of the wagon with a primal urge to push against it. I've zero doubts he's town, just off of strong gut combined with evidence which given how sparse his content is, is as strong as can possibly be.

I don't think it's in good faith to argue "xtoxm just wouldn't disappear here as scum"

Fair enough, but I wasn't arguing that. Xtoxm's disappearance isn't why I am townreading him. In fact I agree with you that it's NAI; I was mostly arguing his disappearance wasn't scum-indicative. Something you apparently are onboard with.

He then makes #2560, which does show xtoxm has at least caught up at this point, but is also a completely unreasonable response given he's said he's barely reading and then shortly after says that he "stopped caring and made that clear." Given that xtoxm was largely absent except for one or two uncaring posts, it's just a really weird 'dunk' on me to make when I've tried to reach out to him multiple times and he's apparently read enough to at least know he was about to be hammered. Personally, I feel like this post doesn't really reflect a mindset of someone who is thinking about the game critically. The shade towards me just feels like the type of post scum thinks is a really great "gotcha" moment, but if xtoxm is town I think he realizes why I say that? Maybe I am reading too much into this post because it is directed towards me and it made me miffed, but it really doesn't feel townie.

You're absolutely reading more into it than is there. Pointing out that you gave intent to hammer and have been wanting to wagon him

does

give reasonable doubt to whether you actually want to reach out, and saying that is not shading you. It is perfectly reasonable to point out that you're showing two, opposite, sides of the coin in regards to him, without it being a shade on you; when I read that post, I took it as an attempt to reach out to you, not an attempt to shade you. Because pointing out that you're giving intent on him does show that you're not truly reaching out to him, or at least it is a perfectly reasonable conclusion to have reached. (Wanting to reach out to someone and giving intent to hammer them are not mutually exclusive, but I can see Xtoxm seeing them as such.) Pointing out perceived confbias on your part to him is something I don't see as scum.

Essentially, I'm not even arguing these point to scum!xtoxm. While I do think xtoxm has decent equity to flip scum, I would not be at all surprised if he flips town.
=======
The real reason why it's smart to kill off xtoxm today is simply because we're going to have to eventually. He has scum equity. And I don't think this slot is ever going to pull itself out of the PoE by virtue of suddenly posting amazing content. A significant portion of the player list is going to come back to this slot day after day if we don't eliminate it. If xtoxm truly has stopped caring about the game, this isn't going to stop. The towniness has to come from xtoxm, and from what I've seen, this isn't going to happen. Consequently, if the slot is town, xtoxm is never getting night killed. I don't want to see this slot near f3! Truly, I feel it's a no brainer at this point to eliminate a slot that doesn't seem to care, has a relatively decent amount of scum equity, and has had multiple counter wagons + people defending / pushing him.

It's not lazy. It's healthy for the game state, has a chance at hitting scum, and progresses the game forward SO THAT we can focus on other slots.

What happens to the xtoxm slot if we wagon Agar or mastina or cephrir or the worst or fucking hercule today? What happens to xtoxm tomorrow? How do people's perceptions of the slot change? Does xtoxm suddenly start caring about the game again now that they're not being wagoned? If xtoxm didn't care as town being put at el-1 than why would he care at any other point?

And all of this? This boils down to "policy-lynch".
I just described with 1.5 word (not sure if a hyphenated phrase counts as one word, two words, or both), what you described over these paragraphs.

You're literally pulling a mastina in wordiness describing the concept of a policy-lynch, on me mastina. You're saying in a lot of words what boils down to "Xtoxm is a policy-lynch". You're not saying anything else on him in this quoted section; these words all boil down to eliminating him off of policy.

Policy-lynching Xtoxm might be the smart play, but it is still POLICY and policy is lazy.

So I stand by my assessment. Xtoxm is a lazy elimination.
Sure, he's largely null, he could be scum, and he'll never stop being that, never stop being null, never become conftown and thus will always be possible-scum.

He's just not scum because gut+what little reasons I have, with me being able to follow his thought process and see the town in it.
He is a policy-lynch, and eliminating him off of policy due to the largely null nature of his slot is okay.

It just will never be anything other than lazy--you're casting the RNG die on whether he's town or scum and I happen to believe, quite strongly, he's town here. A policy elimination isn't the worst D1. But yes, I stick to it being lazy.

[mastina]

Drafting a post in a team PT is exactly the sort of post that would be close to zero effort for him to do.

Proof?

I've played with him before in games he had PTs.

Fucked if I'd be able to track down which games tho.

[OkaPoka]

math is sleep if you want his thoughts idk give us a night