TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

[Dunnstral]

really I just meant anti-tells, I don't care about associate tells

[Almost50]

Let's see if you're good at this.

Do you think I'm a PR by play?

Silly question, really. The short answer is I don't know you as well as I know Tom.

A more "sassy" one would be: If I thought you were a TOWN PR why would I be pushing you?

[OkaPoka]

the important thing to consider about a tracker claim is the +ev is very very low. on average its not going to be helpful especially in a large.

This is so short-sighted it hurt when I read it. I think you're only talking about "direct guilties", as in "I tracked this person to the dead person". But how about "I'm a VT" -> "No, you're not. I saw you visit this player"? Or "I visited A50 on N1, Oka on N2" -> "That's a lie. I was on you on N2 and you didn't go anywhere"? Trackers are

strong

informative roles. the +ev is never "very very low"

sure but trackers are also very easy for scum to play against

[the worst]

the important thing to consider about a tracker claim is the +ev is very very low. on average its not going to be helpful especially in a large.

This is so short-sighted it hurt when I read it. I think you're only talking about "direct guilties", as in "I tracked this person to the dead person". But how about "I'm a VT" -> "No, you're not. I saw you visit this player"? Or "I visited A50 on N1, Oka on N2" -> "That's a lie. I was on you on N2 and you didn't go anywhere"? Trackers are

strong

informative roles. the +ev is never "very very low"

bang

A50, SS wanted me to say that if someone links to a post number which is greater than the number of posts in a thread, the link will revert to the op

[Almost50]

specifically because scum will almost always claim a PR at this point imo, that plus Xtoxm’s indifference to getting wagoned up and fakegammered made me feel like they were more likely to be VT or scum

So you think SCUM don't care about being wagoned??

they do but imo it's different

as a TPR or scum you really don't want to die (more than VT), but:

as scum there are a variety of responses you can use to wifom out of it, one of which could be intentionally ignoring the thread/not caring

as a TPR, i wouldn't expect TPR to ever try and wifom out of the elim by like intentionally not posting and pretending to not care.

so my explanation here for tpr!xtoxm is that he genuinely just didn't care, which is plausible ig?

Sorry to report that Xtoxm goes more quiet when he does roll a PR than when he does a VT. I guess he doesn't much like the burden of responsibility bestowed upon him. In other words, he acts more freely as a VT which makes him look townier than he does as a TPR.

But I get what you're saying as a general observation. Scum AND TPRs have more tendency to fight to survive than your average VT.

[Almost50]

A50, SS wanted me to say that if someone links to a post number which is greater than the number of posts in a thread, the link will revert to the op

Noted. So it still couldn't have been the Scum PT because this game and all it's PTs were not created on Dec 6. It could have been the Team PT as IV noted though (ours was created on Dec 9)

[Dunnstral]

I always assumed it was the team pt and this revelation does nothing for me

[Dunnstral]

I'm willing to reconsider xtoxm tomorrow, but not to let him go until limlo, and not to elim someone who has associate tells/anti-tells with xtoxm

That means no abr, no dgb, imo

I don't really want to vote for Agar or Titus either

Someone can try to convince me on Agar, I guess

Who else?

[innocentvillager]

i think i'd like to hear from people who believe cephrir is town to explain their TR, because when i look at that slot independently it is the slot I TL the least for the amount of content they have put out

Sorry to report that Xtoxm goes more quiet when he does roll a PR than when he does a VT. I guess he doesn't much like the burden of responsibility bestowed upon him. In other words, he acts more freely as a VT which makes him look townier than he does as a TPR.

ok thanks that's interesting to know. i think im potentially coming around on xtoxm town, willing to let them live for now at least.

[innocentvillager]

would wagon any of these today {AGar, Cephrir, Winter, Ythan, Titus, Dannflor}

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

yeah ok drop the pt discourse lol

[Dannflor]

VOTE: ythan

[AGar]

Let me hammer this drum yet again because y'all are fucking ignoring the obvious:

he's also telling me to claim; we are a tracker.

This is sadly nai--when I came in and did setup spec, I was expecting scum to have [partial redaction on setup spec], with a fairly weak investigative. I was guessing [redacted due to setup spec], but tracker would be loosely comparable to [redacted guess] in power for the scum.

This serves

zero

purpose but to create hot air in the thread and go "look at me! Look at how smart I am!" It doesn't actually assist in solving, it doesn't actually sort anything. It just makes it look like mastina is doing something despite the fact that she is still actively not doing that and just making shit up to cover for her shitty made up reads.


Yeet mastina or yeet Xtoxm, Day 1.

[AGar]

VOTE: ythan

What purpose does running yet another player up serve aside from further muddying the waters of any info that could be gleaned post-flip since now the wagons have all already lost a significant chunk of their value because they're just being pushed around willy nilly?

[implosion]

A006370: The Collatz or 3x+1 map: a(n) = n/2 if n is even, 3n + 1 if n is odd.

0, 4, 1, 10, 2, 16, 3, 22, 4, 28, 5, 34, 6, 40, 7, 46, 8, 52, 9, 58, 10, 64, 11, 70, 12, 76, 13, 82, 14, 88, 15, 94, 16, 100, 17, 106, 18, 112, 19, 118, 20, 124, 21, 130, 22, 136, 23, 142, 24, 148, 25, 154, 26, 160, 27, 166, 28, 172, 29, 178, 30, 184, 31, 190, 32, 196, 33

Link

Vote Count 1.21

Ythan

(3): hercule, OkaPoka, Dannflor

Xtoxm

(2): Dunnstral, AGar

AGar

(2): mastina, Hopkirk

Cephrir

(2): Almost50, Titus

Dannflor

(1): Winter Flakes

Okapoka

(1): Ythan

DrippingGoofball

(1): Albert B. Rampage

Not Voting

(6): Xtoxm, Cephrir, innocentvillager, the worst, unwnd, DrippingGoofball

With 18 alive, it takes 10 votes to eliminate. Deadline is set for January 29, 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2021-01-29 21:00:00).

hercule has been prodded.

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Cephrir

[hercule]

howdy folks, had a really busy weekend so hadn't had a chance to read the thread any. catching up now

[DrippingGoofball]

SirCakez demands that I help with the Cephrir wagon.

VOTE: Cephrir

[hercule]

There is not a reason to town read xtoxm.

There is: his read progression actually looks fluid in a town manner.

Beyond that: there's an overwhelming gut feeling. The gut feeling is just that he's town. Strongly so.

When I say I have zero doubts he is town, I mean it--no confbias, no tunnel vision involved

Sure, he's largely null, he could be scum

lol

[innocentvillager]

hercule how is your team feeling about Uncrowned (e.g peta)

[hercule]

Sorry for being testy but like. Nothing you're saying matters at all???

Okay is in the right and you look bad.

oka kinda rekt ythan in page 122-123 but I suppose this would always be my takeaway when one of my strongest townreads and one of my strongest scumreads go at it lmao

[hercule]

hercule how is your team feeling about Uncrowned (e.g peta)

LMAO let me actually paraphrase our entire conversation:

shady (hercule): "@petapan what are you thinking about winter flakes"

petpan: "i'm not caught up let me get back to you"

shady: "ok no rush"

that was on friday lmao

[hercule]

xtoxm's tracker claim is a bit weird considering he didn't seem to blink at all going up to L-2 but I guess his teammate prodding him to claim might line up? either way doesn't make sense to flip that now - that would be doing scum's dirty work for them if he's real

I am only through page 127 but I realllly want to start a wagon on mastina. can I get a "vibe check" since that seems to be the appropriate term on this site

VOTE: mastina

[hercule]

Cephrir wagon is Not The Way

[innocentvillager]

why is ceph wagon not the way?