You think Luca is scum?In post 3799, Gamma Emerald wrote:If you have good reasons to TR luca I'd legit like to hear them because he's in my scumreads rn and has been since D1
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Sure.In post 3798, Gamma Emerald wrote:it's not replicable if you don't give a road map tho
I've tried to use similar methods to you and feel like I ended up way off
I guess you can try your methods on the game I tried on and see what results you get, and if they match mine then I somehow lucked into your method?
is that a thing you're willing to try?
But you'll need to give me the flips, any modconfirmed townies (i.e. cop clears) known at the time you did the flip. I usually get those things from post 1, but that would spoil the results.
That'll happen tomorrow most likely though barring a sudden miracle as my case got pushed to the back end of my calendar and I have two actual VCAs to do here.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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Btw, being willing to learn the VCA sounds like a very town reachout.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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So my day looks like
Court case
Docket work
VCAs
Date
More stuff if possible.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
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https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=84286 this is the game thread
I did the VCA during N4, the flips up through then were georgebailey, bingle, and fun & games as town, and lavar + flavor leaf as scum, with one scum left alive. For mech clears there was me, creativemod1, and dkkoba (unique setup mechanics indicated that we were town).We're falling through space, you and me, clinging to the skin of this tiny little world, and if we let go...That's who I am.
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Thank you.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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I’m not Scum and I really don’t care how much Titus wants to hug their vote count analysis. I’m unfortunately the target of this nonsense so there’s not much I’m going to say that’s going to affect how people behave, but I can answer whatever anyone wants to ask me. I’ve been quite transparent about my views and my analysis and the flip and NK don’t change how I’m looking at the game.- DrippingGoofball
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Where is chkflip's claim thoIn post 3793, BBmolla wrote:So we're just waiting on a DGB claim then?Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
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I meanIn post 3789, chkflip wrote:It's not that exciting, DGB has a 50% chance of guessing her way out if trouble if there were any. I don't think there is, but, y'know.
It's possible.
I'm being super vague on purpose btw. I hope people understand.
chkflip who pretty much has a guilty on him from quiet
Doesn't claim????
ME NO LIKEParaphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
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You wouldn't like it if I claimed to the tee.
You can't lie to me, woman.
Speaking of fabricating role claims, well it seems almost out of character for you not to claim... doesn't it?
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VOTE: chkflipShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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Spoiler: The VCsShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
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VCA methodology
1) Admit assumptions
a) All flips are accurate.
b) Titus is town.
c) Any mechanical clears would be outed at this point. (So if there's a hidden cop clear, it's not factored in.)
2) Grab the VCAs and color them.
a) All current known flips must be colored accurately. (No rationale such as X's reads really sucked so they were practically scum, so I'm coloring them in red.)
b) Optional but I almost never do it (exception mbos 10 but that's because I had inside mod information that made me have additional mod clears): Color in uncced PRs.
3) Establish assumptions. Scum behave with a goal in mind. Assumptions are what that goal should be.
a) Scum usually try to save their teammates.
a1) If they don't then the opposition wagon is a stronger PR
a2) If they don't and the opposition is not a stronger PR, it's a bus for towncred
b) Scum rarely lead wagons on their own
c) A fake guilty by scum is done to remove a voice they could not otherwise eliminate particularly if the slot is doomed anyway.
c1) A fake guilty means that a slot saved has some value to scum. (This means my day 1 reads should be treated like utter trash and Norfolk's should be treated with greater respect.
[Note: Day 1 notes need to be redone at this point.]
d) Wagons based off guilty claims have no VCA value as there is no threat to wagon anywhere else.
e) Repeating wagons have repeating results.
e1) This means the same names on a wagon that flipped town meet again, that wagon will likely flip town (or match what the scum want.)
e2) This means the same names on a wagon that flipped scum meet again, that wagon will be more likely to flip scum (or a townbeard that's useful to scum).
f) Be careful of the townbeard. The townbeard is someone who consistently acts proscum, even when scum wouldn't.
Example: There are 5 scumflips. A slot defended every single one. There's a decent chance that slot is the townbeard rather than scum.
Basically, the useful idiot.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
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Those are my basic assumptions, including some that are relevant to this game. I have to make assumptions to ascertain what scum's objective is at a given point at any point in the game. Without having enough data to make those assumptions, then VCA is nothing more than wagonomics. This is why I say VCA requires Day 3 with a scumflip. It's the amount of flips needed, at a bare minimum, to give VCA any predictive value. Sure, VCA can be done before that (and I have begrudingly), it just lacks any value. Sometimes, all that can be gathered is that X, Y and Z are the flips that need to happen.
Enough preamble, time to work.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
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Oh I would love itIn post 3810, chkflip wrote:You wouldn't like it if I claimed to the tee.
You can't lie to me, woman.
Speaking of fabricating role claims, well it seems almost out of character for you not to claim... doesn't it?
Vanilla or not vanilla would suffice in all honesty.
You're the one with a scum result and you're the one claim stalling
SPIT IT OUT
I am already voting you so
confirm vote: chkflipParaphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
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UNVOTE: chkflip
I don't like my vote anymore after 1.7ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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That's... crazy detailed. Exactly why I use it (and I trust you to regardless of alignment give me a jumping point). But technically that post is IIoA. Heh.
Pedit: you're being very persnickety for someone who was counter offered.
I know whether Titus, Mom, quiet, and you are vanilla or not. In that order. My reads have followed that train if you'd like to go back and check. No crumbs, but before I knew there was whatever the fuck a Doctor Tracker is flip TOWN I'm very much in the camp that the Role Cop is scum.
I did say Mom was vanilla before she claimed it, though.
I said that at some point yesterday."Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.- Titus
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The first VC that could possibly be out of RVS is 1.3
[selected VC 1.3]
MathBlade (5):Binatog13,Nero Cain,chkflip, BBMolla, NorwegianboyEE [E-6]
Andresvmb (3):Bypasser Catcher, Rannygazoo,Vaxkiller
Here, we see there's two wagons. One on conftown. The other voted by two conftown. If Andres is town, I would put high odds on Vaxkiller being scum and vice versa. However, if the backend of the wagon on MathBlade's slot is totally town, then Andres and Vax could be TvT as scum would not be creating a counterwagon to save scum Andres but rather not caring at all which got wagoned.
[VC 1.4]
MathBlade (6): Binatog13, Nero Cain, chkflip, BBMolla, DrippingGoofball, Not_Mafia [E-5]
DrippingGoofball (3): Hayker, Momrangal, Gamma Emerald
Rannygazoo (2): Norfolk Boy1, NorwegianboyEE
Gamma Emerald (2): Andresvmb, Rannygazoo
Binatog13 (1): MathBlade,
Not_Mafia (1): Vaxkiller
Hayker (1): Titus
Andresvmb (1): Bypasser Catcher
I quoted the entirety of 1.4 to show that Not_Mafia moved onto Mathblade's slot after the disintegration of the Andres wagon, which is a null point in my belief that Andres is scum. Scum didn't really need to pile on Mathblade's slot since Ranny moved on his own and with Andres.
I highly doubt Vaxkiller and Gamma are scum here. It's far too early for where scum usually would be bussing Not_Mafia.
chkflip likely isn't scum because I don't see why two scum would pile on Bypasser Catcher with other options available. It is possible chkflip could be chainsawing the Bypass Catcher vote but it doesn't seem like a move scum need to make yet.
I don't really see Luca as scum here as scum would need something to jump onto to make Plus a counterwagon. I would have suspected quiet here if Plus was town, but quiet flipped town too. That begs the question... just what were scum doing at the time Not_Mafia's wagon got started?
My mind based off this VC goes to NorweiganboyEE, DGB, Andres, Molla, and Hayker as suspects.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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Vanilla Cop or neopolitan?In post 3818, chkflip wrote:That's... crazy detailed. Exactly why I use it (and I trust you to regardless of alignment give me a jumping point). But technically that post is IIoA. Heh.
Pedit: you're being very persnickety for someone who was counter offered.
I know whether Titus, Mom, quiet, and you are vanilla or not. In that order. My reads have followed that train if you'd like to go back and check. No crumbs, but before I knew there was whatever the fuck a Doctor Tracker is flip TOWN I'm very much in the camp that the Role Cop is scum.
I did say Mom was vanilla before she claimed it, though.
I said that at some point yesterday.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
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That is correct. There's a modifier but if you don't mind I'd rather I kept it to myself, tyvm.
Can you not see the reason I might be non-specific?"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.- DrippingGoofball
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I thought scum!flip was going to claim my role, since it's already been outed, and I was hoping he'd get caught with the wrong night choices.
I'm the lazy roleblocker.
N1 GE
N2 Norwegian
N3 quiet
N4 MomrangalParaphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
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Is the modifier "scum?"In post 3822, chkflip wrote:That is correct. There's a modifier but if you don't mind I'd rather I kept it to myself, tyvm.
Can you not see the reason I might be non-specific?Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
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