Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[Imperium]

This is why Imperium's defense is so bizarre to me.

What about our defense did you dislike?
What part of it was unreasonable?

[Imperium]

I don't think Cakez is scum and my Cakez read has been pretty accurate for the games we've been in

Maybe this is the game you pocket me Cakez!

We're way too early in the game state for me to trust this read even a tiny little bit.

[Imperium]

I think the post at the top of this page is a decent enough summary for most folks. That said: if I think about it, there's some other stuff that tends to ping me but which aren't things most people are sensitive to. May as well just rewrite it all out for ease of access.

Generally speaking: Saying one thing, then saying a contradictory statement under pressure -- feels less like stating beliefs than trying to evade attention. Making baseless assertions that seem like trying to force an interpretation (e.g. the whole Norfolk scumhunting thing). General gut feeling of the play being phony, i.e. fake, but not so much "simply acting" as it is "crafted for specific effect".

More specific to how I build out reads: Apparent lack of a coherent chain of causation -- I don't see how he gets from point A to point B, it feels like it's abrupt jumps instead of actual changes in thought process. Play is "concentric" -- instead of his play changing focus at any point, it takes a specific point (in this case, "shoot Norfolk") and centers all of his play on that singular point. All play that isn't directly centered on it is pushing back on people questioning it. Hence "concentric", his play reaches ever wider circles of the playerlist but the center point never changes, indeed hasn't changed since page 1.

Because of these things, his play feels agenda-driven: he has a specific goal (shoot Norfolk) and does not attempt to search around outside of that goal. When dealing with things that are not necessarily "shoot Norfolk", his statements are not necessarily logically compatible with one another, and there is no apparent shift in belief or understanding to explain the incompatibilities (since the conclusions he comes to do NOT appear to change alongside the statements).

I liked this post, definitely seemed like some genuine scumhunting going on here. I really like the point about Cakez's play centering around nothing but shooting Norfolk and while I'm not decided it's alignment indicative for Cakez (he seems to be very talented at burying himself in holes), it's accurate and unique enough where I struggle to see it as something scum just pulled out of their ass.

[SirCakez]

sigh you guys are completely missing my point. So either I'm being unclear or you guys are just not actually comprehending what I'm saying. I think Lotus is the only one that has interacted with what I'm saying and catching what I'm meaning.

I'm not arguing that norfolk is town. I'm saying that his original posts were not that scummy to warrant being on everyone's scum lists and to get the type of pushes that cakez/unwnd/ducchess gave. So far Not Mafia has called norfolk town, Mush hasn't given a read I don't think, and then remove Norfolk himself. That leaves 8 players who have called him scum, some with reasoning that I don't buy/I think is odd.

If he is town, then he is being pushed/scumread by scum as an easy push. If not_mafia and Mush are scum, we're looking at 2 in that pool of 8. I don't currently think both of them are scum, which means more in that pool of 8.

If he is scum, there are bussers/distancers about and I'm trying to make sense of the pushes and reasoning there to try to determine who's being genuine and who's going along because it looks good. And unwnd being like yeah shoot him he's a slanker, but not taking about other ones who have as many or fewer posts than norfolk feels wrong on so many levels. Cakez pushing him in ways that make no sense whatsoever and trying to tie me to Norfolk when he's seen me push against reads and try to make sense of them in previous games is really weird as well, and I don't buy that his read is coming from a genuine place. It just feels all kinds of wrong.

I don't know why this is so hard to understand. Regardless of Norfolk's alignment, the reads on him are weird. I'm trying to read the people who are reading Norfolk who's reads don't read genuine to me.

This is so disingenuous
You literally wrote a wall defending Norfolk
For you to backpedal here and go "whoa I wasn't actually townreading them" feels like a lie

[SirCakez]

How is my play centered around shooting Norfolk?
Like, at all?

[SirCakez]

This is why Imperium's defense is so bizarre to me.

What about our defense did you dislike?
What part of it was unreasonable?

It feels very unearned
Why are you going in to save someone so hard who (at the time) had made four posts?

[Imperium]

ATTACK ON TITAN!

So Norfolk has a handful of games in the newbie queue and exactly no completed games out of the newbie queue. He doesn't appear to be a lurker as either alignment, and he's stated in one of his newbie games that he doesn't like the pressure of being scum or a power role.

Which means his opening posts here quite frankly are either or. They could easily come from inexperienced town who doesn't want the pressure of having a gun early because they lack confidence. It could also yes come from nervous scum.

I don't think his opening posts are all that scummy because they can as easily come from town who doesn't want the responsibility of fucking up early as it can from scum who's afraid of getting shot, but I don't think there's any real way to tell the difference right this minute. I just find the super push there from his first two posts pretty scummy, and if he is scum I bet there's some bussing in there because scum love to find their partners scummy for not very scummy stuff.

I don't like unwnd's posts regarding this at all. We're two days in the start of a two-week deadline with not even 20 pages in. It's super misguided and kinda scummy to be advocating for a shot here right now for slanker shot. We have no idea whether or not norfolk will start actually posting, but based on previous games he should regardless of alignment. If he's scum, we get oh look everyone thought he was scum but no associatives to speak of, and we potentially go right into one of us eating a night kill before any impact can be made, which means we're not too far ahead.

That's best case scenario. Worst case scenario is he's actually town, given a power he doesn't want and is uncomfortable with AND we lose netflix.

Acting like it's misguided not to just go for the slanker when you can't be a slanker at the beginning of the game is really weird.

Where did I call him town Cakez?

[SirCakez]

At this point it's not even about the Norfolk read
It feels like your play around them is incredibly posturey and setting yourself up to look good whether it flips town or scum

[Imperium]

I refuse to believe this is cakez town game like woah cakez

[Imperium]

This is why Imperium's defense is so bizarre to me.

What about our defense did you dislike?
What part of it was unreasonable?

It feels very unearned
Why are you going in to save someone so hard who (at the time) had made four posts?

You didn't answer either of my questions here.

[SirCakez]

You never did actually call him town directly yes that's my point
The impression of anyone reading that wall without context would be that you townread the slot
Because why would you go so out of your way to defend someone who is null?

[SirCakez]

That wall is a giant fencesit basically if you're not committing to call Norfolk town

[Imperium]

oh gods cakes please be scum this game

jesus fuck christ i cannot with you.

[Imperium]

That wall is a giant fencesit basically if you're not committing to call Norfolk town

MY POINT ISN'T ABOUT NORFOLK

IT'S ABOUT THE TRASH READS ON HIM NOT SEEMING GENUINE

JESUS FUCK CAKEZ.

[Imperium]

do you have any scum reads?

Ordinarily i'd be scumreading Cakez, but he's been so transparently misrepresenting me and tunnelling that i'm leaning misguided town. Although that's the same logic

ScrewTheTells is still pinging me. A quick jump in, push the wagon and run off again: scummy.

I'm also scumleaning you, Lotus. That's related to your democracy idea that I referenced earlier.

Pedit: massive falisifying of what I said by Wheme, there.

Not really loving how perfunctory these reads are.

These reads all feel like they're checking a box - they're all shallow, one-dimensional and none of them look like he's trying to figure anything out. Hoping for more in his next burst of posting.

[Imperium]

i feel like you're interaction with me in total bad faith cakez.

How is this any different from the way I grilled gamma on his diamond sentinel read, while thinking diamond sentinel was likely to be scum, but that I thought gamma's read on him was pushing him disingenuously?

How is it?

[SirCakez]

That's like saying "I don't understand townreads on Joe Schmo"
And then later going "Actually by the way I'm not declaring a read on Joe Schmo at all."

It doesn't connect logically.

[SirCakez]

i feel like you're interaction with me in total bad faith cakez.

How is this any different from the way I grilled gamma on his diamond sentinel read, while thinking diamond sentinel was likely to be scum, but that I thought gamma's read on him was pushing him disingenuously?

How is it?

I think you are scum so yeah this is not good faith
I don't remember what you're referring to, something in Smoke right?

[SirCakez]

At this point it's not even about the Norfolk read
It feels like your play around them is incredibly posturey and setting yourself up to look good whether it flips town or scum

This is the core of my point.

[Imperium]

That's like saying "I don't understand townreads on Joe Schmo"
And then later going "Actually by the way I'm not declaring a read on Joe Schmo at all."

It doesn't connect logically.

It makes sense logically if you're actually playing mafia.

Joe Schmo's posts don't warrant the reads he got, someone is being disingenuous regardless of Joe Schmo's posts.

I thought we were playing mafia here and reading the whole room, my bad.

Tell me how to play this game again senpai, how am I supposed to scum hunt?

[Imperium]

i feel like you're interaction with me in total bad faith cakez.

How is this any different from the way I grilled gamma on his diamond sentinel read, while thinking diamond sentinel was likely to be scum, but that I thought gamma's read on him was pushing him disingenuously?

How is it?

I think you are scum so yeah this is not good faith
I don't remember what you're referring to, something in Smoke right?

Yes, I'm talking about smoke and literally every other game I play where the reads on someone regardless of my read on them don't make sense.

i don't think for a second you think I'm scum here, but nice try.

Anyway I'm stepping away this is a bad faith interaction on your part and I'm done with it.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Duchess, when you do your catch-up post later, read this page (should be page 19, but if it isn't, I do mean page 19) from start to wherever this post landed without stopping to post (or re-read after you've posted, whichever works for you, just want a nice big unbroken chunk of reading) and tell me what you see. This one should be more long-term relevant, and still be interesting by the time you get around to it. It may also be instructive to check back to my pressure on Wheme for compare/contrast purposes.

Also interested in what Wheme sees on this page, since he seems sensitive to the dynamics I'm seeing and has direct, real-time experience with the prior thing to work with. I like when Wheme types detailed responses, so I'm hoping to see one of those.



And a reminder that I'm waiting for an unwnd response to my issues with Cakez.

[SirCakez]

That's like saying "I don't understand townreads on Joe Schmo"
And then later going "Actually by the way I'm not declaring a read on Joe Schmo at all."

It doesn't connect logically.

It makes sense logically if you're actually playing mafia.

Joe Schmo's posts don't warrant the reads he got, someone is being disingenuous regardless of Joe Schmo's posts.

I thought we were playing mafia here and reading the whole room, my bad.

Tell me how to play this game again senpai, how am I supposed to scum hunt?

Ok but
If you're saying someone should not be getting certain reads
Then that logically implies you believe the opposite thing.

Like that's not a crazy connection to make????

[Imperium]

Give me specifics - what would flipping Norfolk solve? If a lot of people suspect someone them flipping town just means that people were wrong. Are there people you think Norfolk can't be aligned with? Are there pushes that you are more likely to double back on if Norfolk flips town?

But this ignores the details: not everyone on the Norfolk wagon is doing the same thing. In another post you said you think everyone reads Norfolk as confirmed scum. Well I'm far from that. I just think he's one of the better lynches at the moment compared to anyone else. I'm not particularly confident on anyone. If I had to give a number I'd say Norfolk is just maybe 10% above baseline probability of being scum. I mean, I wouldn't be hugely disappointed if Netflix shot someone else instead, a lot of people are dropping more substance now and I think reads on them are only gonna get stronger.

SirCakez indeed has been pushing Norfolk pretty hard. If Norfolk is town I think Cakez's the most likely scum. And town-Norfolk shouldn't need much convincing to shoot Cakez at that point. So actually, this also undermines the "Town-Norfolk's gonna shoot wrong" argument.

And if Norfolk does flip scum then uh... Imperium's zealous defense of him is kinda weird. Not decided if that is strong scum tell, but I think it's a scum tell at this point. I can see town defending a scum-lurker casually based on your reasoning, but this seems beyond that. You're defending him too hard while leaving a way out by saying stuff like

I don't know norfolk's alignment.

I just don't see many town players defending a lurker if they genuinely didn't have a town read on.

That was a question directed to Lotus. My point was that he said that a Norfolk flip was going to "clear up a lot of things" but unless he had specifics in mind than that was a false statement. Sure, it clears up the basic in that people have to find someone else to push but Lotus's post seemed to paint it as a more informative shot than anywhere else and that simply isn't true.

Im traumatized at this point by the number of people who are saying that we're rabidly defending Norfolk or defending Norfolk an unreasonable amount. We've had to explain the same shit multiple times which I'm sure makes our defense look more dedicated than it is (like of course we're not fervently town reading him - he made 4 posts on page 2 at that point and we never talked about him being town), and this game in particular doesn't seem to understand that there's a difference between me calling a push bad and calling a push wrong.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

--snip for readability--

Ok but
If you're saying someone should not be getting certain reads
Then that logically implies you believe the opposite thing.

Like that's not a crazy connection to make????

--snip for readability--

I don't care if you SR me but I think that of all things is a stupid reason to SR me. At least I can see Imperium's argument.

Another example of that "contradictory statements as the occasion suits" thing I mentioned. These two posts do not connect, because the arguments are exactly identical in form ("the reasons for this scumread are spurious"), but Cakez is /making/ the argument in the second quote and /considering it illogical/ in the first.