Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[Spartan117]

Well just because I think FaC is town doesn't mean my alter does

So should we start reading you as one alignment and your alt as another?

[flow trap]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Spartan117]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That's the flow trap we know

[flow trap]

If you want to make 17 more reads, be my guest

[Prism]

I've felt really out of it the last two days and don't have the energy for this game atm. I'm sorry. I will try to drop in later. Fortunately the deadline should be frozen but that's not really an excuse.

I'm glad to see more initiative from Frederick. I do think Spartan has a point in that a lot of your responses have been variants of "You have not supplied a reason for scum reading me" but I'm happy to see you branching out more. We need you.

[fferyllt]

Deadline is paused at 3 days until a replacement is found.

[fferyllt]

fairyprincess69 replaces Salsabil Faria. Please welcome him!

Vote count incoming with new deadline.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2-6

Iceland has some of its own cryptozoology mysteries. One is the Lagarfljótsormur, a seagoing worm living in Lake Lagarfljót. The first recorded sighting was in 1345. Since then it has been seen a few times over the centuries and has even been recorded for posterity by ABC News on youtube.

Spartan117

(2): Fredrick A Campbell, flow trap

Fredrick A Campbell

(2): fairyprinces69, Spartan117

floo

(1): Prism

Salsabil Faria

(1): floo

Not Voting

(1): quiet

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Revised Deadline: January 31, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Revised Countdown: (expired on 2021-01-30 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[fairyprincess69]

hey guys! not quite sure how replacing into a game at this stage is gonna go, but i figured id give it a shot to test myself. i was decently confident of my slot being town based on a quick skim of the last few pages - i felt her frustration at not being understood and her decision to leave abruptly was coming from a town's POV. i'd much rather replace into town than scum, so yeah.

how would you guys like me to approach this? read through the whole thread first or provide reads bit by bit? im thinking the former will be less annoying, but i'd like to ask questions about the early stages of the game even if it's from like 2 weeks ago. tell me wat ya think.

VOTE: quiet this dude's maf btw

[floo]

Finishing my quiet read. My gut has been telling me safebet/quiet are town this whole game, if nothing else for an honestly informative tone. Thus my read might be flawed due to confirmation bias, in particular missing LAMIST or subtly manipulative posts. I assume it's not though, unless someone can point out my own reading flaws.

Brief question

925 says quiet does not think the scumteam is Fred + Enchant. Contradicts other posts, as at this time quiet was voting and scumreading Enchant and in the same post placing suspicion on Fred. There's no reason stating why quiet believes this, so there's not enough info for this to be AI. @quiet, please elaborate?

Enchant

Throughout the Enchant push, quiet is acknowledging the possibility that Enchant is town and this is a not very useful push. Their tone of their interactions with Enchant assume Enchant is town, which is a necessity for talking Enchant out of it. The problem is that quiet goes silent on scumreading Enchant afterwards, preferring to worry about Enchant flipping town. At this point quiet is treating Enchant like a policy elimination.

It's an easy way to blend in, but throughout the Enchant controversy wasn't setting up the town to "implode" (as Prism puts it). In fact, no one did this that comes to my mind; there isn't a blame game for Enchant which leads to votes because the Enchant wagon was uncontroversial. Off the top of my head:
- Enchant encouraged a self-wagon
- 4 other players voted Enchant
- I would have voted Enchant had the wagon not progressed so quickly
(That's 6/9 voters already)
- Two people (Fred + Sal) who explicitly had no read on Enchant without much explanation
I think there was that one player who thought Enchant was town but didn't defend them strongly. I can't check it right now.
Which makes me think scum was just letting the Enchant wagon run its course and get them an easy miselim while they set up further pushes by attacking other players. quiet himself (1046) acknowledges the wagon was a "policy elim" without a particularly scummy player being spotted. The only pushable "ringleader" was EZ with his 99.9...% confidence; pushing an widely scumread town that hard is too risky for scum anyway.

Back to the point, this means I can't call quiet's pushing of Enchant noticeably town or scum indicative.

D2

1086 is the start of when my and quiet's reads begin to match closely, even if I'm only relying on gut at that time for Prism and Spartan. The noticeable similarities are a strong flow trap townread, a Fredrick scumlean while preferring another (hopefully more useful) wagon. Scumreading Sal for the same reason as me (1113). It's a great place to pocket me honestly if I'm wrong - he could also follow my (mis)reads while I take the D3 heat because my scumreads are more assertive. Once again it's not certain this is a scumtell, but quiet is suspicious if Sal or another floo-led vote flips town.

Not pushing Fredrick because he's an easy miselim if town, I understand. My fear is that Sal's slot is town, and scum will push Fredrick (easy push) or me ("ringleader" of bad Sal vote) D3 as a final easy but divisive push. At that point, scum is using me perfectly - let's say flow trap knows I'm townreading him for NAI parts of his regular posting style, while quiet is pocketing me and using my reads as a Trojan Horse. My point: if Sal/fairy slot flips town, scum was playing differently with regards to the Enchant vote and the inactive D2 analytical posts than I am expecting - I will take this in mind and start my readlist anew.

1115 about the inactivity. Gut tells me scum is deliberately semi-active, setting up their near-final votes right now while waiting for the D2 finale and changing their final vote if necessary. You could calculate and compare the post rates/day of every player in the game if you wanted to. That would also be a reaction test to see which scums try to seem towny by posting more (unnaturally), but it's too late for that to work.

1154 Sal saying quiet is playing very different between D1 and D2, I don't agree. We still see an analytical player who admits his insecurity (D1, enchant may be town; D2, floo and prism may be scum), who doesn't get into conflict a lot or push his scumreads too hard, although he has many substantiated reads. LAMIST-esque posts seem like his natural style.

1160 quiet is missing the very real possibility of a hard push D2 (backed by useful idiot towns) -> easy Fred push D3 is a great scum strategy. When he redirects attention to other players, he talks more about how they would play as scum (and implies how he might scumread them) without comparing & contrasting with himself in detail. He says floo/Prism/Sal (the first two of which are townleans of his) are playing well if scum, fully admitting that those two townleans are flimsy effort reads (per 1113) and assumed (a better reason is found in 1163). Mediocre reasoning or evasion aimed toward deflecting a serious question, a scummy post.

That's all, I townlean quiet.

Other Stuff

I'll try to read Prism and Spartan soon, but here's what my gut is telling me:
- Spartan and Prism lean town (I have not formally read any of them yet)
- At least one scum was off the Enchant wagon, good chance both - at least one team member distanced themselves from the entire Enchant affair to set up future misvotes (I explained some careful thinking to back it up)
- Spartan vs Fredrick is town vs scum, and there is one scum on each side of the wagon (i.e. one partner is vote bussing; this is a wild guess)
- if you haven't guessed where this leads, Frederick + Sal is the most likely scumteam in terms of individual probability of being scum (i.e. two scummiest players) as well as plausible strategy/interactions (I don't count on this being correct though, I'm focused on getting just one scum today)
Based on my experience in chat mafia my gut is only a little better than random chance, but I just wanted to share my thoughts.

[floo]

I don't think the very carefully curated posts from floo are as town as you think they are.

I'll save judgment on the essay until I see it but the initial reasoning I do not like at all, nor much of floo's play around the stronger slots.

Floo, I also am going to need some more reads on the rest of the room. Just top of your head. Bonus points for a response to the Prism quote I pulled.

"Very carefully curated" might describe my early D1 posts because I was a chat player going into forum mafia, relieved to be able to post in higher quality. I realized by D2 that I don't have all the time in the world for very carefully thought out, well-written posts. Now I say a lot of whatever's on my mind.

@Prism If you don't like my initial reasoning, you can respond to my essay. Specifically why you don't think there's a fearing scum undercurrent in Sal's posts.

[floo]

hey guys! not quite sure how replacing into a game at this stage is gonna go, but i figured id give it a shot to test myself. i was decently confident of my slot being town based on a quick skim of the last few pages - i felt her frustration at not being understood and her decision to leave abruptly was coming from a town's POV. i'd much rather replace into town than scum, so yeah.

how would you guys like me to approach this? read through the whole thread first or provide reads bit by bit? im thinking the former will be less annoying, but i'd like to ask questions about the early stages of the game even if it's from like 2 weeks ago. tell me wat ya think.

VOTE: quiet this dude's maf btw

Hello, I'll get right to the point.

I haven't reacted to Sal quitting the game because reading quiet/Prism/Spartan would be more important than talking to a non-replaced slot. What's really strange is that your predecessor decided to leave the game just because one player was mean to her. She's playing Mafia, a serious conflict-driven game, shouldn't she expect this to happen to her one day. There's an official site post (forgot where) that tells you that rough conflicts and insults are to be expected.

quiet's scumread and vote on Sal was less elaborately reasoned, but I believe he was a factor. Sal scumread quiet as her last read statement - the two possible reasons she gave were LAMIST (explicit, worse reason) and the scumread on her (implicit, better reason). The problem was that she refused to scumread me, she was acting more like "f u" than "you're scum." The exams might have played a part, in that she couldn't write a full refutation of my reasoning and instead resorted to a short rant, but she would have at least expected herself to have some activity.

I'd like you to post some short gutreads. I'm most interested in your reads on quiet (if you sincerely scumread him) and me (to sort out the conflict).

[floo]

About Sal and Fred, I noticed that she didn't really have a reason to scumread Fred around mid-D2. I would've expected her, when that frustrated, to scumread floo + quiet. Scumreading Fred over me, seems either like an easy read on a widely scumread player or a bus.

[floo]

@mod you spelled fairy's name wrong and forgot to update Sal's name in the latest vote count

[Prism]

You've made the case that Salsabil was upset, sarcastic, snarky, and dismissive. You cast these emotions as scummy in and of themselves, such as in your evaluation of 544. This is both overly simplistic and blatantly not true. Town feel, and act, on these emotions all the time.

You also gave plausible scum motivation behind it as being either intentionally evasive or overshooting the reaction emotionally. I don't see a specific scum motivation relating to a read or relating to how she's been voting. These describe emotional responses that are essentially selfexplanatory as town. If you don't feel this is the case, I can go line by line to justify her feelings, but they were obvious to me reading through at the time (see: other players feeling the same way about flow trap)

You had no issue baiting out more emotional reactions, which leaves very unclear what you wanted out of her in the event she were town. You don't seem fazed that these emotions have been proven blatantly real at all.

I wasn't really impressed by working through the quiet ISO and it's unclear to me why you started there over slots that are actually on the table. You've consistently refused to engage with me until now, and it took quiet practically begging you to do so. You've also waited until I specifically said I was demotivated and low energy to finally issue any challenge to me at all.

I strongly doubt I move my vote unless forced to to avoid a miselim. It is deeply frustrating that you are getting a pass for effort. The fact you show zero remorse or reaction to that replaceout at all tells me all I need to know.

[Prism]

Just saw 1261, one sec.

[Prism]

I haven't reacted to Sal quitting the game because reading quiet/Prism/Spartan would be more important than talking to a non-replaced slot. What's really strange is that your predecessor decided to leave the game just because one player was mean to her. She's playing Mafia, a serious conflict-driven game, shouldn't she expect this to happen to her one day. There's an official site post (forgot where) that tells you that rough conflicts and insults are to be expected.

She literally has openly clashed with flow trap all game. You admitted to openly baiting her and being openly abrasive. What do you mean it's "strange" that she'd replace out for this? If she's town she's frustrated, deeply upset, and blatantly does not want to play with you or flow trap anymore. If she's scum she's scared. This is straight up working backwards.

You've completely ignored this entire time that being upset is not a scumtell. Of course she's going to say 'fuck you' as town if she's already upset as hell and thinks you're intentionally picking a fight with her.

[Prism]

@Fairy Welcome to the game and thanks for replacing in!

I think the answer is whatever you feel is more in line with your strengths as a player. For historic points of interest, I think the Enchant wagon might be of interest, as is the wagon on your own slot. I'm currently voting floo, if you want to read there and talk about it. I'm also curious as to whether or not you have any reads beyond quiet.

[Prism]

That's the last of the energy I have for the day. I'll try to rest up for tomorrow, especially since deadline is unfrozen and time is ticking again.

[Prism]

Based on my experience in chat mafia my gut is only a little better than random chance, but I just wanted to share my thoughts.

I almost missed this entirely

If you're a chat mafia player you have seen these same emotions COUNTLESS times from both alignments, half the games literally center around who is the more convincing selfrighteous asshole/caps locker/rager. There is literally no way you read someone being upset/snarky and think it's inherently scummy.

I am literally never not voting this slot.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...

- Spartan vs Fredrick is town vs scum, and there is one scum on each side of the wagon (i.e. one partner is vote bussing; this is a wild guess)
...

Why do you think so?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: floo

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...

also, Fred, don't let me down, man. Why do you scumread not one but both of my townreads? Where did this Spartian sus appear from anyhow? I'm going to go digging and see who pointed fingers first.

VOTE: Salsabil

I have the feeling that Spartan117 is deliberately misinterpreting my posts to scumread me. Why do you townread Spartan117?

[quiet]

Hi everyone,
I got some news yesterday morning that someone in my life had suddenly passed. I spent the day trying to sort out what I needed to do, and considered a site wide replace, but ultimately have decided to continue playing. I’m 3k miles away, and there’s not a lot I can do from here, and mafia is something I enjoy, which feels important at the moment.

I’m planning to spend some time tonight playing, but have not read anything since I got the news. Sorry for the trouble. Stay safe everyone.

[flow trap]

I think the round is dragging out so who are we shooting?