Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[Syryana]

Official Vote Count

Not Voting

(12): SirCakez, Norfolk Boy1, RLotus, unwnd, ScrewTheTells, Imperium, Duchess, MUSHSHAGANA, Dunnstral, WhemeStar, petapan, Not_Mafia

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-11 00:00:55)

[Imperium]

but unwnd i have to leave soon so i'd like to talk about me and you for a quick second.

1) are you okay? is there any reason you're taking a bit of a backseat in this game or am i misinterpreting that you're taking a backseat here?

2) you didn't really react to us scumreading you. was your expectation that we wouldn't be able to read you or are you scumreading us or...?

[Imperium]

no

[Imperium]

syryana did you just cheat to get the pagetop or am i hallucinating

You wish you had these magic hands. -Syr

[ScrewTheTells]

That Lotus shot came from nowhere...wtf. At least Lotus should have some good targets. And we have an active replacement so that should make reading the Rockhopper slot easier as time goes on. Agreed that we don't need to rush, but I don't think there was any chance of Lotus doing an impulsive shooting immediately so I don't know what Imperium's dramatic panic was about. That's actual LAMIST if I ever saw one.

Speaking of LAMIST, there's our OG:

Easily, the best shot right now is me. I'm probably the common denominator in most peoples scumreads, so it'll confirm my alignment and then any further discussion about me is over.

I almost thought that this guy was no longer that scummy compared to other people after the first several pages. After all I agree with Imperium's objective point that the Norfolk wagon in the first few pages was based on very circumstantial evidence. But like, every Norfolk post I see just keeps reminding me that this guy probably isn't town? Right? Both our heads think so and it seems like other players do too so we're not crazy here right? Why don't people wanna shoot this guy again?

At this point our top 3 suspects all OMGUS'd us back, so we're on to something here. If I had the gun at this point I'd be pretty confident in shooting any one of them. Again, that's Imperium, MUSH and Norfolk.

I think Wheme is now likely town. He starts off looking like a shit poster but I find myself agreeing with the posts most of the time. And they are clear reads not fluff so... I mean he could be buddying up intentionally but that's less likely.

Also what is up with the "who gave netflix the gun" speculation? I honestly thought that was a pointless exercise in WIFOM but maybe I'm overlooking something in this special set up. Please enlighten me on this.

Regarding Imperium trying to get Lotus to shoot me (lol):

Gotcha.

My concern is less that STT is pushing mislynches because STT doesn't have enough of a presence at present to do anything but try not to get shot. My concern is that STT is making up reads because his reads on me/Cakez/Norfolk look more like a computer program than someone genuinely trying to figure out the game. I believe this because of him being willing to turn on his top townread as easily as he is (everyone can be wrong so seeing someone be wrong once should kick your top townread to your bottom 4) and because of how clean those reads are.

If Norfolk is town, STT believes that I am town and Cakez is scum.
If Norfolk is scum, STT believes that I am scum and Cakez is town.
If Cakez is town, STT believes that I am scum.

I don't believe that he believes that because what people believe in a mafia game usually isn't so straight forward; there's usually a bit of nuance, it's usually a bit messy. This just... isn't.

This is some flimsy weak ass excuse to OMGUS the person who is on scum's tail.

The only point Imperium is making here, is "This STT is too logical, the reads aren't wrong but I think they should be more wrong to be 'human'".

You really want to play this game? My old head is darkdude.

Take a look at my last game, where I post my beliefs as numbers, no bullshit. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

I literally post probabilities between 0 and 1 for p(scum) that add up to the number of scum in game. There, I also posted probabilities assuming a flip goes one way or another, exactly as I have talked about Norfolk here. My whole raison-d'etre in mafia is to apply probability calculations to see how well it works in this game. Conditional probabilities are a huge part of that. It would be dumb if I didn't massively update my estimates on Cakez after I've been proven wrong about Norfolk (since that list is made with the current idea that Norfolk leans scum). At that point the only reads I have on either Cakez or Imperium was their takes on the Norfolk saga. It wasn't strong evidence in absolute terms, so it should obviously be easily swayed by future evidence that weighs more heavily. In other words Cakez's position at the top of that list doesn't have much of a lead from others at the top of the list, and it's almost all based on his interaction with Norfolk-Imperium. If one of those two flip then of course his standing will change dramatically. I really didn't think I needed to explain this; I assumed Imperium was trolling the point as scum.

Also why are you calling these mislynches? You claimed to think Cakez was scum intentionally misrepping you. You were not against a Norfolk lynch. From that POV, the only possible mislynch from me drawing this association might be you, if you're town. This doesn't make any sense. Sounds to me like you looked at a way to find my words scummy, then rationalized your way to "they're setting up mislynches by stating these associations".

Lotus, tell me you're not convinced by this bullshit argument. If you are I can write more walls but I thought this is enough. Imperium's rationalizing, I'm not trying to talk to Imperium here.

Preview edit: I was writing this before I saw Imperium's latest post regarding my MUSH take. I might get to that later if people other than Imperium (i.e. likely towns) are interested. Do let me know. I don't wanna let Imperium bog down the town in another distracting 1v1 like they did with Cakez a while back. Again, not really a point in playing the "he said she said" game with someone who's likely scum.

[unwnd]

Any hesitance or sidelining you see me from me is dictated a bit by the setup and a bit by my varying confidence in my reads. I think the people who I asked to be shot would be great shots, but I know they're probably far. Meaning, I don't think I'm going to see another death soon. This is in some sense a good thing, but also I think gun games more than even regular mafia games rely upon PoE. My PoE hasn't been determined, and my townreads are all there for my own convenience. You could say I townread STT purely on this notion, but looking into your own reasoning and like, actually reading their wall

That might've been a bit short-sighted. Who's left? I think Cakez is townie still. I believe MUSH's conundrum is not fake and if this were her first scum game I don't imagine she'd be able to pick up her tells that easily. It's not as simple as saying 'i am going to wall' because the intent has to be there somewhere and my read on MUSH independently (as in, her as a player) is that she has strong conviction, but struggles with placing it in a format that she is satisfied with. Therefore, she spends a lot of time in tangent mode even if others deem it be unnecessary.

[unwnd]

but unwnd i have to leave soon so i'd like to talk about me and you for a quick second.

1) are you okay? is there any reason you're taking a bit of a backseat in this game or am i misinterpreting that you're taking a backseat here?

2) you didn't really react to us scumreading you. was your expectation that we wouldn't be able to read you or are you scumreading us or...?

1) Explained a bit in my previous post

2) I didn't really think about it. My priority right now is finding a workable PoE, which I guess in explained in my previous post as well. I think Cakez is being dramatic towards you. The only reason I intervened is because I'm innately selfish and I'm not gonna get any further in reading you by you entertaining Cakez. We're getting somewhere now so you might see more of me, but the past 10 pages or so I was started to get a bit annoyed which is why I brought my hose.

[Imperium]

The only point Imperium is making here, is "This STT is too logical, the reads aren't wrong but I think they should be more wrong to be 'human'".

No, this is a strawman.

I literally post probabilities between 0 and 1 for p(scum) that add up to the number of scum in game. There, I also posted probabilities assuming a flip goes one way or another, exactly as I have talked about Norfolk here. My whole raison-d'etre in mafia is to apply probability calculations to see how well it works in this game. Conditional probabilities are a huge part of that. It would be dumb if I didn't massively update my estimates on Cakez after I've been proven wrong about Norfolk (since that list is made with the current idea that Norfolk leans scum). At that point the only reads I have on either Cakez or Imperium was their takes on the Norfolk saga. It wasn't strong evidence in absolute terms, so it should obviously be easily swayed by future evidence that weighs more heavily. In other words Cakez's position at the top of that list doesn't have much of a lead from others at the top of the list, and it's almost all based on his interaction with Norfolk-Imperium. If one of those two flip then of course his standing will change dramatically. I really didn't think I needed to explain this; I assumed Imperium was trolling the point as scum.

This is a good rebuttal to the Cakez-Norfolk-me deal, definitely makes sense. My top read versus bottom read varies a HELL OF A LOT more than yours did so I guess I made the mistake in assuming you approached the game the same way that I did.

[Imperium]

Also why are you calling these mislynches? You claimed to think Cakez was scum intentionally misrepping you. You were not against a Norfolk lynch. From that POV, the only possible mislynch from me drawing this association might be you, if you're town. This doesn't make any sense. Sounds to me like you looked at a way to find my words scummy, then rationalized your way to "they're setting up mislynches by stating these associations".

Preview edit: I was writing this before I saw Imperium's latest post regarding my MUSH take. I might get to that later if people other than Imperium (i.e. likely towns) are interested. Do let me know. I don't wanna let Imperium bog down the town in another distracting 1v1 like they did with Cakez a while back. Again, not really a point in playing the "he said she said" game with someone who's likely scum.

I thought Cakez was intentionally misrepping me in the heat of the moment, yes. After we had our 1v1 and I had some time to think I revisited and I don't really think the approach he's taking this game makes sense for him as scum and definitely doesn't fit with the approach I'd expect him to take as scum based on our history. I think some of the fear of us "getting away" is pretty genuine and I do like that he's scumhunting in between the dumb argument with us.

Norfolk I'm going back and forth on - hard to parse between anti-town and scummy in that slot. You're correct that the argument weakens significantly if Norfolk is scum, but it's still possible that you're trying to use Norfolk's flip to push two townies (I expect his scummates would expect him to go down early and thus would get as much mileage out of his death as humanly possible).

[SirCakez]

I think STT's push of Mush is pretty accurate and not at all based in misrep
I just don't think that Mush is scum for what STT is calling out because Mush seems to have an extraordinarily unique playstyle

[SirCakez]

I saw the same thing STT did re Mush omgus

[ScrewTheTells]

I get the distinct feeling that Imperium is carefully toeing the line between casting enough doubt on us to distract from themselves/scumbuddies, and trying to win us over. Just my quick gut feeling though. (and this is the old head speaking, I'll ask the other head when available later)

[SirCakez]

I can't help but feel Imperium now strongly townreading me is a reaction to them pushing back on me as scum not working

[Imperium]

I can't help but feel Imperium now strongly townreading me is a reaction to them pushing back on me as scum not working

Remember this game when I flip town.

[Imperium]

Preview edit: I was writing this before I saw Imperium's latest post regarding my MUSH take. I might get to that later if people other than Imperium (i.e. likely towns) are interested. Do let me know. I don't wanna let Imperium bog down the town in another distracting 1v1 like they did with Cakez a while back. Again, not really a point in playing the "he said she said" game with someone who's likely scum.

So, FYI, if I am town and you are town, then me getting you shot and you shooting me loses us the game.
It's gonna be hard to change my mind if you don't address the things that I dislike about your slot.

I am capable of reassessing, but if you don't help me at all with the process and you are town, then the loss is falling squarely on your shoulders.

[Imperium]

I get the distinct feeling that Imperium is carefully toeing the line between casting enough doubt on us to distract from themselves/scumbuddies, and trying to win us over. Just my quick gut feeling though. (and this is the old head speaking, I'll ask the other head when available later)

And I'm pretty sure that I've said this before but if I was win people over in this game I'd probably be less of an asshole.

[Imperium]

Lotus - this is your daily reminder to please fucking hold off on shooting the gun. Not Mafia still needs to do something, peta still needs time, STT needs to do more, etc. Etc. Be patient.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I need to get some food in me and then I'll get to answering folks. While I eat, I'm going to address STT.


I am changing my STT read to "self-important null" instead of "guaranteed scum".

STT, buddy, I have to thank you for pointing out that you play with Yudkowsky-esque Bayesian reasoning. Why? Because it means that you can't sort me. Ever.

No, really. You are incapable of doing it. I play a subtle town game, I play a manipulative town game, my meta is to mislead and misdirect and hold back information and dangle things in front of people that are meant as bait to be taken. I play a "scummy" town game. You are working with numbers and probabilities, and here I am doing things that normally scum only do, and I'm doing them in the open, I'm even drawing attention to them. Other people can see the town in it, because they understand (if only subconsciously) what I'm doing by showing my hand, saying "I'm up to mischief" out in the open so everyone knows to look for it. They can recognize the differences between my play and scum play.

You cannot. You will /always/ come out scumreading me regardless of my alignment. Because you are incapable of seeing the town explanation. Because it isn't in your priors. In your priors, only scum do these things.

You cannot sort me by numbers. Period. I am the glitch in your system.

I'm typing this up so you have something to dwell on in the post game, mostly. There's no chance this changes your mind unless you drop your system, because your priors are based on ordinary Mafia players, and not mutant Yeti parasites like me. But your system is flawed and it will fail every time on me and you need to know that.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

It's not so much the commenting on each major event that bugs me there as it is the extremely rigid, strict thought processes that are described in excruciating detail. It took a while to settle on that being the issue, but it's pretty unmistakable: check how there's no simple conclusions reached, EVERYTHING has an extended, multipart thought process involved, with one exception. That exception (Dunn) is left open ended, coming to no conclusions at all.

It rings very false.

why's that necessarily scummy though, idgi

It's not /necessarily/ scummy, but it certainly smells of scum. Town can (and has, remember Adorable in Death Curse I made the same comments about) absolutely do the same thing.

But I find scum are more likely to do it. Town is more likely to just go with the flow, and to skip steps in their trains of thought because the presumption is that they can be inferred. They'll say "X is scum because of Y" without explaining how "scum" follows from "Y" unless someone specifically asks them about it.

A very rigid and strict outline of every single step of a thought process implies there's something special about the thought process, that it has some extra special sauce. It's something best saved for showing how you make an intuitive leap (working backwards, obviously) to a non-obvious answer, or if you're like me and your brain works so differently from everyone else's that it has to explain itself in great detail or everyone presumes asspulling.

When it's extremely vanilla logic, or the steps themselves appear to be based on very strained interpretations, that's where scum can be hiding. Trying to look townie by appearing to put a lot of thought into things, but if you try to follow along it's kind of like taking a basic prealgebra problem and finding a way to force it into a calculus equation -- once you get to the end you go "you made me do all that work for this?"

That said, I think STT might be closer to the "alien mindset" side of overexplanation, due to being one of those Bayesian types, which makes it a case of NAI behavior for them.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Funny enough, I only just realized that STT made my initial argument against them for me -- just flipped around at me.

[Imperium]

I am changing my STT read to "self-important null" instead of "guaranteed scum".

I was keeping this read in my pocket in an effort to get them to respond to the wall I made on them but if you're scum this game good job you've officially crawled into my cranium.

Please don't be scum this game because if you are scum this game I'm going to cry.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I wouldn't mind Imperium having the gun, yeah. The concern with my other nulltowns is that I think they'd be some degree of hot garbage with the gun, but Imperium I feel would be pretty excellent with it. Probably the three players I trust to do /literally anything/ useful with the gun as of right now are Imperium, unwnd and Duchess, so if that's a strong part of your consideration, that's where I'd place bullets. I strongly think unwnd is town though, so maybe not there so much.

Could you get into why you think that unwnd is town?
I'm having major doubts at the moment.

It's a garbage reason.

Ready?

1: I weakly townread Albert based on approach, so they inherited a bit of that.

2: Because they're one of the few players whose take on the gamestate I actually agree with at all right now. Almost everyone else is talking so differently that it feels like they're playing some totally different game. I mostly see where you and unwnd are coming from, and anyone else currently in play may as well be on another planet at the moment.

This does mean I'm technically at risk of being pocketed by you, unwnd or both here, but I need to have some stable baseline to parse the game with before I can try to get rid of my garbage bullshit reads and replace them with actually useful ones. Which is why I keep reaching out to other players like Duchess and Wheme for input on things: I'm trying to connect myself to the game that /they/ are seeing being played, because I'm clearly not in the same one, and it means my reads are garbage.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I am changing my STT read to "self-important null" instead of "guaranteed scum".

I was keeping this read in my pocket in an effort to get them to respond to the wall I made on them but if you're scum this game good job you've officially crawled into my cranium.

Please don't be scum this game because if you are scum this game I'm going to cry.

If it helps, it's a pretty vanilla take-away from a post talking about how they have the power of Bayesian reasoning and probabilities on their side so they are so good at this that you shouldn't even try them.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Duchess, I'll take you up on that discussion when you're ready. I'm going to take a short walk while things are charging, so I might be slightly delayed in responding, but I'm actively keeping it in mind.

[Duchess]

Sorry if I missed you, Imperium. I don't know if I have any questions for you at the moment as my townread has only been strengthening. Some of the things I didn't like about your early posting do not rub me the wrong way now within the current game context. I get the impression that you (at least the Tammy half) tend to play according to the momentum of the game, if that makes sense, and the fluffposting really saturated your ISO before you had delivered much in the way of game content (or before you felt you had much to deliver, I suppose). However I do hope that you'll weigh in on what I have to say about Cakez because there are some pretty glaring things I'm seeing now that I've gone back and taken a closer look at your interactions, and I'm wondering how close to the front of your mind those things are, assuming you saw them as well.