Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[petapan]

I definitely see it MUSH, it was such an angled read on two people who just happen to be there at the time Netflix shot his gun off. Let me spin this however, what do you feel is more likely Dunn

1) Two potential scum "egging on" a shot from the gunbearer
2) Scum sitting back and letting town misfire into themselves while playing hero the moment the bullet is fired

i mean, in general in games, i think scum aren't usually ones to go on the offensive, but when town gets a bad idea they will jump in to encourage it, it felt notable that they went for the hero shot on a player that wasn't scumread by many except for, like, duchess, and suddenly folks who hadn't discussed him at all were like "eh yeah sure"

[Imperium]

I definitely see it MUSH, it was such an angled read on two people who just happen to be there at the time Netflix shot his gun off. Let me spin this however, what do you feel is more likely Dunn

1) Two potential scum "egging on" a shot from the gunbearer
2) Scum sitting back and letting town misfire into themselves while playing hero the moment the bullet is fired

i mean, in general in games, i think scum aren't usually ones to go on the offensive, but when town gets a bad idea they will jump in to encourage it, it felt notable that they went for the hero shot on a player that wasn't scumread by many except for, like, duchess, and suddenly folks who hadn't discussed him at all were like "eh yeah sure"

Who are these folks?

[RLotus]

I think I have a solve that I am pleased with.

[RLotus]

Can everyone give me their stack rank?

[petapan]

Lotus would be an interesting shot, the reason I wanted to kill Duchess was actually to resolve my thought on Lotus and the potential of bussing

Nacho didn't elaborate on why he didn't like lotus's interaction with duchess. I'm concerned there's theater about, but I haven't made myself reread their interaction today like I keep trying to get myself to do.

Norfolk's posts once he starts to post beyond the first four, which were all there were when I was trying to find out if his early posts were alignment indicative, don't have the inquisitiveness of the other posts in that game we've both posted from. I think Nacho called his posts last night perfunctory? and some of that feels similar to the game you have experience with him in. But take this with a grain of salt, this little meta dive was not extensive it was just to see if he had different posting styles. The most inquisitiveness he's shown here is when he tries to interact with not_mafia.

i mean, i'm not the only one who picked up on it, but it felt

notable

that rlotus was basically an afterthought then when he got mentioned it prompted this response

[petapan]

Can everyone give me their stack rank?

i've had literally a day in this game and my reads are still shifting dramatically, i have some people i

really

want to question before i want to commit to anything

[RLotus]

Can everyone give me their stack rank?

i've had literally a day in this game and my reads are still shifting dramatically, i have some people i

really

want to question before i want to commit to anything

Ok I'm not shooting for some time still do your thing

[Imperium]

Lotus would be an interesting shot, the reason I wanted to kill Duchess was actually to resolve my thought on Lotus and the potential of bussing

Nacho didn't elaborate on why he didn't like lotus's interaction with duchess. I'm concerned there's theater about, but I haven't made myself reread their interaction today like I keep trying to get myself to do.

Norfolk's posts once he starts to post beyond the first four, which were all there were when I was trying to find out if his early posts were alignment indicative, don't have the inquisitiveness of the other posts in that game we've both posted from. I think Nacho called his posts last night perfunctory? and some of that feels similar to the game you have experience with him in. But take this with a grain of salt, this little meta dive was not extensive it was just to see if he had different posting styles. The most inquisitiveness he's shown here is when he tries to interact with not_mafia.

i mean, i'm not the only one who picked up on it, but it felt

notable

that rlotus was basically an afterthought then when he got mentioned it prompted this response

I asked because I knew you were including me, but those are points that had been brought up previously by me and nacho. Nacho had an interaction with lotus in which he demonstrated suspicion of his points on duchess. I had already made that statement to which Lotus had asked me to elaborate on and I told him I'd get Nacho to elaborate earlier in the day. None of that was new, and was part of a conversation Netflix and Chill and I were having about the majority of the playerlist.

I don't know if you're just doing iso work here, but those thoughts I had at that moment did not come out of nowhere.

[Imperium]

Also I'm pretty sure that both of those posts by me and unwnd came before he said he was definitely shooting.

[petapan]

i'm reading in real time but not taking notes or anything of the like since i'm disorganized. i can see there was mention of it previously but it was never really fleshed out

in general this game, i've liked a lot of what you've said and what you've been doing, like how you really seemed to want to interact with norfolk and actually get a read on him rather than just call for his head like half the players in the game, but if i had to raise a point of concern it seems like you've been difficult to pin down to a concrete stance for a lot of the game. that's not a crime necessarily, my reads tend to waver a lot which is why i hate committing myself to lists but in a setup like this, there's a lot of scum, i'd expect some strong scumreads because you can pretty much close your eyes and throw a dart and still hit scum.

so i want to ask, what's your opinion of norfolk after you interacted with him, or tried to? why's duchess a scumread for you? why's unwnd scum? why is MUSH your top townread?

(i'm still a few pages behind where i first subbed in in my readthrough so i may have missed some stuff, apologies if i'm making you repeat stuff, this is just the impression i'm geting)

[Imperium]

No really gonna post much today because I have grading to do and other stuff to get posted as well as take a basic break from this game, but I wanted to just say something real quick.

Duchess - Thank you. I know other people understand my argument and where I was coming from, but the way Cakez has approached this interaction has literally left me feeling like a crazy person because of how much he has misrepresented, misunderstood and changed the argument. (STT claims to understand but they'd not be making the point they were making if they actually understood, but it's whatever.) Anyway, regardless of your alignment, I appreciate it. Nacho has pointed out before that being understood is something that is really important to me; I'm not really concerned about being right, but I do want to be understood.

You mentioned something about me playing with the momentum of the game. That's probably pretty accurate. I don't really do much in the first 5-10 pages of a game just because well that's a part where I'm settling in and getting a bit of an introduction to people and their posting styles. I also find almost everything scummy in the beginning of the game, and I'm really bad at deciphering who is scum trying to look like they're getting the game going and town trying to get the game going. So unless something really sticks out to me, I mostly ignore the goings on of the early game, get some initial thoughts until I get to 5-10 pages where I can read the beginning with some distance. I don't know if that addresses what you meant.

I think you also wondered about my changing read because I do agree and understand your point about Cakez's argument and position being less likely to come from town. My brain and my sanity agree with you, but Titus does exist. Titus and I interact much differently than we used to and we always got along fine outside of games, but I've been in this type of situation with Titus several times. And it drove me absolutely batshit insane, and I've miselimed her more than once for the exact thing that Cakez is driving me crazy for right now. It got to the point, and what I will probably do with Cakez from here on out if he does flip town, that I just stopped reading her posts and interacting with her in the game and worked my reads around that. And Nacho has told me that this has been his experience with cakez in several games where he has helped to miselim him for more than once. So I'm listening to nacho's experience and looking at Cakez as if he's Titus and trying to adjust my read accordingly.

I still really really want Cakez to be scum because I really don't want to believe that this is Cakez!town just being so freaking pompous in his approach to me while getting everything wrong and arguing with me in this way. I want so much to believe this is scum doing this on purpose to tilt me so that my reads are shit. That's what I want to believe, but humans are sometimes weird and he might not be doing it on purpose. He gets mislynched a lot, and maybe this is one of the reason why.

I'm a really really indecisive person, so I tend to waffle a lot. Although I do tunnel and get really convinced I'm right sometimes, I'm usually looking for ways I might be wrong. Mush keeps on bringing up zdenek, and it makes me laugh and be a bit nostalgic, but my first game that wasn't devoured by tigers onsite was a game with zdenek where we mutually tunneled each other for two weeks - the entirety of day one. Most of the game sided with me, but the night before deadline was zdenek was just about to be lynched, he made a post that literally changed everything for me. I realized in that moment he was town, I jumped off the wagon and did my best to tear it apart. There was a bit of fallout from that, but most of the time I'm in a constant state of reassessing and moving the pieces around in my mind to see how things fit and make sense.

I'm not in the same exact position as that game personally, but Cakez has made a few posts here and there that makes me think that he might be town after all. I posted one of them where he basically thinks he's the hero this game needs because no-one will shoot us (which is kinda funny considering that Imperium has lost almost all of the scum games we've drawn). That just reads town to me as does the way he keeps talking about his reads, like thinking he's town reading too many people or my favorite was the one where he said there was a mole in his town reads. There are just those little things that seem to come from a town mindset, and for me right now I'm focusing on those little things.

[Imperium]

Lotus - I personally never do rack and stack, ever. I'm too waffly and trying to rack and stack actually exacerbates that and destroys all my reads.

This is Nacho's rack and stack from yesterday, but some is in flux now. He did not hate STT response to his earlier post, so I don't think he has him this low anymore. I believe he still suspects unwnd, and I think he liked some of what Duchess said? So I'm not sure how accurate this is at this moment. He's got a weird work schedule for a couple days, so I'm not sure if he'll be able to pop in and update this.

also peta this is my rough rack and stack currently i think:\

MUSHSHAGANA

SirCakez

WhemeStar
Dunnstral
petapan Rockhopper

Norfolk Boy1
Duchess

Not_Mafia

ScrewTheTells
unwnd Albert B. Rampage

[Imperium]

i'm reading in real time but not taking notes or anything of the like since i'm disorganized. i can see there was mention of it previously but it was never really fleshed out

in general this game, i've liked a lot of what you've said and what you've been doing, like how you really seemed to want to interact with norfolk and actually get a read on him rather than just call for his head like half the players in the game, but if i had to raise a point of concern it seems like you've been difficult to pin down to a concrete stance for a lot of the game. that's not a crime necessarily, my reads tend to waver a lot which is why i hate committing myself to lists but in a setup like this, there's a lot of scum, i'd expect some strong scumreads because you can pretty much close your eyes and throw a dart and still hit scum.

so i want to ask, what's your opinion of norfolk after you interacted with him, or tried to? why's duchess a scumread for you? why's unwnd scum? why is MUSH your top townread?

(i'm still a few pages behind where i first subbed in in my readthrough so i may have missed some stuff, apologies if i'm making you repeat stuff, this is just the impression i'm geting)

Lotus - I personally never do rack and stack, ever. I'm too waffly and trying to rack and stack actually exacerbates that and destroys all my reads.

This is Nacho's rack and stack from yesterday, but some is in flux now. He did not hate STT response to his earlier post, so I don't think he has him this low anymore. I believe he still suspects unwnd, and I think he liked some of what Duchess said? So I'm not sure how accurate this is at this moment. He's got a weird work schedule for a couple days, so I'm not sure if he'll be able to pop in and update this.

also peta this is my rough rack and stack currently i think:\

MUSHSHAGANA

SirCakez

WhemeStar
Dunnstral
petapan Rockhopper

Norfolk Boy1
Duchess

Not_Mafia

ScrewTheTells
unwnd Albert B. Rampage

Grain of salt thought: I believe he moved norfolk lower. We talked last night just before I fell asleep but I was super tired.

[ScrewTheTells]

So MUSH and Imperium both jumped off of their wagon on me with coordinated swiftness and grace. I think you should try for the 2021 Olympic scum team for synchronized gymnastics.

Snark aside though, if you were town, who would you shoot? (assume you had gun and deadline is now). I had the impression you guys thought I was the top target, so who's your best target now?

So, FYI, if I am town and you are town, then me getting you shot and you shooting me loses us the game.
It's gonna be hard to change my mind if you don't address the things that I dislike about your slot.

I am capable of reassessing, but if you don't help me at all with the process and you are town, then the loss is falling squarely on your shoulders.

Yeah I get that, but there's a lot of costs weighing on the less-than-likely chance that I'm talking to someone in a way that matters to the game.

It's not just that it distracts from the overall conversation. It's also because my time is limited and I realized that I kept putting off making analyses of other people and questioning them, because these really vocal OMGUSer's are just baiting me into writing a wall and then "hey wow look at the time I got to go!".

Other people I've been thinking about:

-- Not_mafia. Some of you might say inactivity is not an indicator of alignment. I think in this case it is. Town just missed a shot, a bunch of people are in contentious 1v1 arguments, I think every town should feel like this is the moment of action to do something to steer the game in the right direction. Not_mafia not_doing_anything is thus evidence to me that he isn't motivated to do that. All he has said this game was that he was town and wants to shoot Dunnstral (without actually bothering to push this shot). It's clearly just prod-dodging. And I can see more and more why scum would keep doing this. No one is threatening to shoot him, so why does he need to do anything? He thinks we don't have the guts to shoot a no-info lurker. He can sit there and win by prod-dodging. Real inactivity gets replaced, like Rockhopper. Real uninterested town would also more likely to ask to be replaced than prod-dodge. So sure it's not impossible for him to be town, but I think he's more likely scum. I'd shoot him.

In other words, I expected town-Not_mafia to basically evolve like Whemestar: start with shit posts and then transitioning into actually doing something, even if keeping the shit-posting format. The lack of this transition is a scumtell to me. He's not even shitposting that much! It's like he doesn't even want to give us any chance to read into his shitposts. Related: I recall people disputing my "effort = towntell" conjecture. I only need to say that this has worked out for me very well in actual practice. I have won vastly many more games lynching low-effort people than I've lost.

-- Duchess. There's something there but my most confident takes on Duchess isn't that confident unfortunately. I think the biggest tell is that their activity seems to suspiciously coincide with what other players want. When other players cast suspicion on them, they make a flurry of posts. Otherwise they don't say much. At least that's the impression of the timing I get. When Imperium called them out vocally they responded and made a huge wall. I don't see any strong indicators in the content of the wall itself. No great towntells anyway. But the manner and timing of delivering what people asked just seems like scum covering their ass. This goes with what Lotus said before about Duchess seeming to regurgitate other people's reads. It would be a similar mentality.

Why did I say this was not confident? Because I've also seen newb town do this too often. They try to be helpful so they mostly work off of what other people have or want. Not calling anyone a newb but I think there's some elements of this mentality. I mean the way Duchess OMGUSed Lotus also fits this profile. Either scum or that specific town mentality. This kind of comes down to how you think Duchess plays, which I have no idea aside from the 2015 join date. I haven't the time to go meta and look at Duchess's games yet. I know some players mentioned their meta experience with other players many pages back but I honestly don't have time to go find it (don't remember who said it, don't remember what words to search for). If anyone wanna tell me again about their meta with Duchess, or Not_mafia for that matter, please. Barring more meta info I don't feel as confident shooting Duchess compared to say, Not_mafia.

Preview edit: Wow you guys write so fast. We'll get that stack list next. Imperium, does that stack mean your top shot (regarding my aforementioned hypothetical) would be unwnd?

[Not_Mafia]

-- Not_mafia. Some of you might say inactivity is not an indicator of alignment. I think in this case it is. Town just missed a shot, a bunch of people are in contentious 1v1 arguments, I think every town should feel like this is the moment of action to do something to steer the game in the right direction. Not_mafia not_doing_anything is thus evidence to me that he isn't motivated to do that. All he has said this game was that he was town and wants to shoot Dunnstral (without actually bothering to push this shot). It's clearly just prod-dodging. And I can see more and more why scum would keep doing this. No one is threatening to shoot him, so why does he need to do anything? He thinks we don't have the guts to shoot a no-info lurker. He can sit there and win by prod-dodging. Real inactivity gets replaced, like Rockhopper. Real uninterested town would also more likely to ask to be replaced than prod-dodge. So sure it's not impossible for him to be town, but I think he's more likely scum. I'd shoot him.

Boring

[Not_Mafia]

-- Not_mafia. Some of you might say inactivity is not an indicator of alignment. I think in this case it is. Town just missed a shot, a bunch of people are in contentious 1v1 arguments, I think every town should feel like this is the moment of action to do something to steer the game in the right direction. Not_mafia not_doing_anything is thus evidence to me that he isn't motivated to do that. All he has said this game was that he was town and wants to shoot Dunnstral (without actually bothering to push this shot). It's clearly just prod-dodging. And I can see more and more why scum would keep doing this. No one is threatening to shoot him, so why does he need to do anything? He thinks we don't have the guts to shoot a no-info lurker. He can sit there and win by prod-dodging. Real inactivity gets replaced, like Rockhopper. Real uninterested town would also more likely to ask to be replaced than prod-dodge. So sure it's not impossible for him to be town, but I think he's more likely scum. I'd shoot him.

Boring

[WhemeStar]

duchess stt scum

[SirCakez]

My stack has not changed much as I TRed lotus
Move Peta up some (rock was at the bottom before)
Move Duchess down to my bottom three

[SirCakez]

Duchess - Thank you. I know other people understand my argument and where I was coming from, but the way Cakez has approached this interaction has literally left me feeling like a crazy person because of how much he has misrepresented, misunderstood and changed the argument. (STT claims to understand but they'd not be making the point they were making if they actually understood, but it's whatever.) Anyway, regardless of your alignment, I appreciate it. Nacho has pointed out before that being understood is something that is really important to me; I'm not really concerned about being right, but I do want to be understood.

What do you think of Mush's deconstruction of Duchess's case?

[SirCakez]

Not mafia has sunk in my reads a lot
I think he's a pretty good shot for hitting scum but not a good shot for opening up the gamestate

[SirCakez]

He is reminding me a lot of Doubles Mafia

[SirCakez]

@STT Not maf is always a shit poster he never evolves
You have to look at the little content he puts out and go from there
Also look at game state - if he's not being talked about much (like in this game) he is more likely scum. That is what happened in Doubles Mafia.

[unwnd]

I think cakez/duchess is scum

No we should shoot duchess or cakez or not mafia.

PETA solidified my townlean on rock

Shoot duchess

PETA solidified my townlean on rock

Shoot duchess

you don't think i'm onto anything wrt STT?
because i wanna shoot that hydra real bad.

I don’t really care currently I would rather see duchess shot right now.

duchess stt scum

Amazing insight Wheme, tell me one I haven't heard before.

[Imperium]

Duchess - Thank you. I know other people understand my argument and where I was coming from, but the way Cakez has approached this interaction has literally left me feeling like a crazy person because of how much he has misrepresented, misunderstood and changed the argument. (STT claims to understand but they'd not be making the point they were making if they actually understood, but it's whatever.) Anyway, regardless of your alignment, I appreciate it. Nacho has pointed out before that being understood is something that is really important to me; I'm not really concerned about being right, but I do want to be understood.

What do you think of Mush's deconstruction of Duchess's case?

Both of us agreed with some points, didn't agree with a couple. I only skimmed it though, and it's something I'll probably come back to tomorrow. Gonna finish responding to Peta here and then I've got to get some grading done.

I'm thanking Duchess there because I think she's right and you're scum, or because I think she's town. I'm thanking her because I feel understood.

[Imperium]

*I'm not thanking Duchess there...