i don't really have a comment on the 2nd post you're talking about yet, I was just looking at the first post. And LLD im not sure im really understanding your point. I'm referring to this line here:
let's assume the whole post is prewritten (big assumption but let's go with it).In post 15, hercule wrote:now, that being said, I am typing this up pre-flip. If you are seeing this, I am probably town. I don't think I would post this if I flip mafia, the WIFOM wouldn't be worth revealing my entire playbook.
he actually thinks he doesn't post this if he flips mafia at the time, we agree on that right?
We agree that he posts it almost 100% of the time if he flips town.
Now you're saying that:
Key word is "If" he chooses to post. I account for this possibility in my post: I said that it was POSSIBLE that he rolled scum and decided to post it anyway. Admittedly when I said "for the lolz" maybe that's downplaying it but I see your point, maybe he just thought it was something he could wifom back to and say "lol i wouldn't post this as scum". But these are all thoughts he would've have to have had after the fact. And in order for the first post to be NAI under our assumption of it being prewritten, we need to think he is close to 100% likely to post it when he does flip scum. I think there's a reasonable chance that if he flips scum he actually scraps the post or at least changes some things. If that's where we disagree on, then fine, I'm just explaining my thought process a little bit moreIf he is scum and chose to post it anyway, it would be for that reason [it wouldn't have any tone leakage] and as a good entry cover to not get early wagoned.
, is pretty good given how few people suspected Cephrir and hercule.