Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[fairyprincess69]

UNVOTE:

inb4 selfhammer

To explain more, just because Enchant is unpredictable. I don't want to risk any hammer while this conversation between quiet and Enchant is still ongoing

this is phenomenally townie imo. unvotes when there was surely momentum for a hammer with the intent to keep a potentially useful conversation going. noting this here as i think it's relevant with an Enchant town flip and to see if anyone else will pick up on it later on.

[fairyprincess69]

gonna make a quick note here that as of page 30, spartan townreads Enchant according to his #746, while the wagon is pretty firmly on enchant. interested to see if he will commit to defending his townread or just let him die (i think he had been compiling this reads posts for sometime while the wagon was forming, so he might not have caught up with the events of the game yet)

so spartan's 838 is totally in line with what i would expect from Town spartan. a defense of enchant which matches with his earlier assessment of enchant. it's a shame this defense has come so late when enchant is all but hammered. i find the confidence in enchant being town slightly suspicious? i mean, enchant HAD claimed mafia goon afterall. i think i can conclusively rule out a spartan frederick team at this point though. the amount of stall on the wagon means i expect a spartan scum would at least be a

little

weary of town switching to fred, with so many people suspicious of fred at this point in time (and an utterly unpredictable flow trap prowling about.)

i think overall this is townie from spartan. shit balls now the game is getting really tough, i have reasons to townread all 6 remaining players at this point. hope someone starts scumtelling later on

[fairyprincess69]

so the initial charm of flow trap's erratic/unorthodox playstyle has completely worn off for me by page 35. every single question directed towards him is just answered with some iteration of "i can't reveal reasons to anything i say or do!! because of reasons that i can't say!!" it's becoming tiresome at this point.

i can't ascertain his position at all on this enchant wagon - does he fos enchant? what does he think about enchant's self vote etc? his thread presence during the enchant wagon is normally what i would consider scum - non-commital, passive, not trying to sort enchant's role, or anyone for that matter. but because it's flow wolf do i just throw all orthodox mafia theory out the window?

Ok, my TRs at this time are Prism & Floo

VOTE: PrismWill most likely not stay on this but I want a 3-way tie dynamic

he's townreading Prism earlier, then votes them. is this another bluff? is this another galaxy brain flow trap gambit? at this point who the hell even knows or cares. at least it's consistent with how he's been playing all game, but utterly inconducive to getting any kind of real read from him.

@

flow trap

one thing i'm really waiting from you is the payoff from all these bluffs and gambits. how exactly has your playstyle helped you find scum? because at page 35 i so far see NO results whatsoever. doesn't that sorta give you a hint you should think about adapting your play? let's see if you can take some proper stances later on in the thread.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Yesterday was busier than I expected. responding to some recent posts (starting at page 50) first.

1226 and succeeding posts: Fred forced to maintain his appearance of being lazy if scum, and has committed to no effort if town. Asking questions is the best way to get info from Fred at this point, especially yes/no ones that can be answered in seconds.

@Frederick A Campbell please explain whatever reads come to your mind in 5ish words each? Even if you don't have the time to respond to follow up questions, just having the basic reasons is useful to everyone. A brief "Lurking, evades my questions" is far more useful than no explanation.

Typing up some follow up posts quickly.

I currently am thinking that quiet and floo are the scumteam.

I think there is something wrong with quiet's post 1305. Details if I have time.
I don't quite remember why I suspect floo.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have the feeling that Spartan117 is deliberately misinterpreting my posts to scumread me. Why do you townread Spartan117?

It doesn't feel deliberate to me. I'll concede that you are eminently targetable if you are town, but frankly I'm not exactly sure why scum outs themselves this hard/pushes like crazy all day against you when you are town here. It might be a bad read (in the case where you are town), but it is a high visibility and high cost read for scum to take knowing that you are town.

I have decided to save all posts after 1310 for later and detail what I think is weird about this post. I clearly recall quiet saying that he would not read me as town but has assumed I am town for some unknown reason.

[fairyprincess69]

finding quiet continually positing town[enchant] theories but not willing to unvote or provide another name to be slightly obnoxious

[fairyprincess69]

Spoiler:

You want a thousand post day 1.

Fair enough.

Fine, I’ll bring it up, this could get us there.
Do we want to gamble the game day1 that Enchant is just self hating town that had a shitty experience getting miselimed and feels that this is the best way to play? Following the principal of flipping my mind, what if

Yes I know this is stupid

We just townlock them, don’t reconsider till ElLo, and get back to hunting?

Downside: they’re always making it to ElLo, which has challenges both if townEnchant or scumEnchant.
Downside: it’s def not GTO (optimal) play, this would be like a huge exploit that could easily screw town day1.

Upside: kinda think Enchant might be town
Upside: gives us 5 more posts
Upside: let’s me ask the question, if Enchant was off the table, who gets elimmed today?

Also why isn’t Enchant elimmed already? It’s an incredibly strange wagon dynamic that so many people seem to be just paying passively, not commenting on the Enchant wagon or what happened, and not declaring if they’re going to vote or not vote. I would not expect the game to freeze like this.

That’s at least marginally useful.

Also flow vote Enchant please and put this day out of its misery.

from lets locktown enchant to please end this day in 5 posts lmao

[fairyprincess69]

Spoiler:

Back to post, sorry for being inactive lately. I read through the thread up to this point.

If Enchant is Mafia, they are playing very poorly. The selfhammer drama is a wonderful gift for anyone (town or scum) who wants to push Enchant. Without it, Enchant would probably not be hammered soon, and would instead have several IRL days for themselves and their partner to redirect a wagon. My question throughout the drama has been, "where is Enchant's partner?" No player has taken Enchant's actions to draw attention to himself. And it is doubtful that a scumpartner would even let Enchant post insanity in the first place.

The only post that stood out to me as partner-indicating is

If I were to try to make a readlist of my own, I would definitely "screw" something too. Hence, my reads are very fluid with players that were more likely to be town to me turning into more likely to be scum and vice versa.

Right now, given what I have read, my guess of the scumteam is Salsabil Faria and quiet with a higher than random chance of being right. Random chance is (1/28). Odds of right to wrong are (1:27).

I'll assume that Fredrick is Enchant's scumpartner in this paragraph. Fredrick does not mention an Enchant read in this post or any other post so far post-drama, not even to analyze anything Enchant has done. At this time, Enchant is the most important read, but he has none (865), with an excuse of not having caught up (866). Instead, he redirects attention to two other scumreads but admits that there is a low chance of his reads being correct. So his strategy is to a) avoid discussing Enchant because any position in the Enchant drama will result in (eventual) suspicion, b) propose some other scumreads while admitting inconfidence to avoid angering his (town) scumreads or explaining his reads too far, and c) hope his partner's gambit and his own pivoting will allow them both to survive Day 1.

My point is not that Fredrick is likely Enchant's partner, but that if the two are scumpartners, Fredrick is pursuing a rational strategy. A desperation strategy is possible because the scumteam was in an awful position at the time, both members being widely scumread and the two most voted players.

I want an Enchant vote, even just for the information. But without the consent of other players, I can't risk selfhammer.

Finally, to Enchant. Yes, you are hurting town. Not because you are bad in the first place, but because your vision of yourself being bad has led you to make confusing and self-defeating plays. You did not try to self-hammer yourself because you really were a net negative at the time. You made yourself a net negative by trying to self-hammer. If there's one thing you can do for town, escape the loser mentality, then you will start contributing to the town.

Stuff I thought up before but I want to post now. Not a full readlist because I don't have the time.

flow trap:

as I explained before. Nothing too scummy has gotten my attention, granted that I've mentally filtered out contradictory or silly statements. Seems sincere.

Salsabil Faria:

She has relied on incorrect assumptions in some of her reads that town has no reason to lie or hide their thoughts, but has not changed her beliefs even while some players have pointed out the mistake. I also get the feeling that she confuses long-paragraph or intelligent-sounding analyses for town. Is contributing to the town, but too often uses the aforementioned assumptions in her reads.

Enchant:

scumread right now per what I've written before.

esotericzoomer:

Complaining about flow trap feels more like scum defending town for towncred now. Absolute confidence in Enchant scumread also suspicious. Scumpool candidate.

Fredrick A Campbell:

Between the read pivoting and invalid read justifications as pointed out by other players. Lack of Enchant read, even "this player is unreadable," is concerning. Scummier if Enchant flips Mafia than Town as the most likely partner. (Unrelated, but keep in mind that Fredrick has gotten more suspicion for not posting reads than flow trap.)

I have not read enough of Prism, Spartan, or Quiet (safebet) yet to make an informed read.

find this post (1005) weird because it's essentially an indictment of Frederick, not of Enchant. the language he uses here ("if Enchant is Mafia, they are playing very poorly.") ("Enchant would probably not be hammered soon")("I want an Enchant vote, even just for the information.") seems to imply Enchant is a townlean overall, and he's only scum in relation to Frederick. why he doesn't just make a case on and push Fred i'm not sure. It also makes no sense for Fred to be partnered with Enchant here - he's completely AWOL from the thread and would likely be targeted tomorrow if Enchant was his scum partner. but i can see that as being a difference of opinion since EZ thought the same thing. we can see from 1014 that Enchant really is a scumread, so why all the psuedo-defending in 1005? why not jsut say yes i think this guy is mafia and we should vote him?

im pretty sure this read is a load of crap by me since it's nearly 6am and i can barely think straight but i just wanted to get something out on floo

[Prism]

Made it home but I'm actually super tired; I'm a bit concerned about the positioning around quiet but it might have to wait until my eyes aren't glazed over. Am going to answer the questions for me and then I'm going to bed. I'll try to be here super early in the morning if anyone wants to talk then.

Bolded I actively disagree with, Salsabil vote was very much working backwards. floo is trying to explain but the more he does the more it's clear that he had no consideration for what a town Salsabil reaction looks like.

Are you scum reading floo based of Sals reaction rather than the intent that floo had to try and gain a reaction from her?

Also you havent said why they are more sus than fredrick, fairy or quiet? just that you didnt like their interaction with Sal

I'm scumreading floo based off of how he pushed Sal and how he reacted to what he got. This does kind of require the Salsabil slot to be town and have a town reaction but my whole point here is that it felt like floo was working backwards from a desired answer of Salsabil scum rather than coming to it organically. This is one of the few tells I put a lot of faith in and have a good track record on.

Did you check the post I linked where I talk about those 3 slots? I don't see why I need to specifically compare floo to each individually when I just explained to you+linked two explanations as to why I scumread floo and I just gave you why I don't want to vote the other 3.

I will have to disagree with you on this, while there may be 8 posts in succession I see it as more of a elongated prodge, I did't feel like it contributed much to the discussion and I defo dont understand those that townread him for it.

I was being generous in that him casting you as disingenuous was by far the strongest stance he'd taken all game. I think you're too hung up on the word "trying", I'm not saying I townread him but when my ass is on the line for a paranoia vote if we miselim I don't want to coinflip it. He's not off the table but he's not my first choice. My reads in general aren't great but working backwards is something I'm pretty good at recognizing

Okay sorry but I'm too tired to respond to flow trap's 1338 and Spartan's 1341, I promise I'll get to them in the morning. Thanks for talking with me, both of you.

Really happy to see fairy this engaged and involved, thanks for staying up late and sorry that I'm at the end of my rope atm. If you've got anything you want to talk about, let me know and I'll respond in the morning.

[Prism]

Actually going to put this in its own post just so they don't think I'm ignoring them

Okay sorry but I'm too tired to respond to flow trap's 1338 and Spartan's 1341, I promise I'll get to them in the morning. Thanks for talking with me, both of you.

[Prism]

Alright, I'm up and moving, making some coffee and then circling back.

Where are people at atm? Who are you willing to vote? We can't have the game go dead right before deadline. I'd be willing to compromise on Frederick if I have to, but I'm not really thrilled about it esp. since he's voting floo.

[flow trap]

I still stand by my previous POE

[shadowslug]

Alright, I'm up and moving, making some coffee and then circling back.

Where are people at atm? Who are you willing to vote? We can't have the game go dead right before deadline. I'd be willing to compromise on Frederick if I have to, but I'm not really thrilled about it esp. since he's voting floo.

How are you on spartan?

[Prism]

Dart throw is no, but I'll review the slot since I know flow trap is there atm. Assuming you're neither of flow trap/Frederick we have the votes to vote it at deadline if you want.

[Prism]

If the choice is between Spartan and quiet I'm 100% voting Spartan though lmao

[Prism]

So I spent some time thinking on this and I'm definitely wrong in at least one way, so thanks for that flow trap.

They start off with a town vote, but then they play "I don't want to seem suspicious" post which I believe is #77. However; I do find their explanation (351) to be completely valid as I have stated before town shouldn't go out of their way to seem suspicious which is fair as they were indeed going for that POV. Some solid posts between 77 and 351. Their next post (355) worries me; I believe it was brought up how Salsa was suspicious due to taking a joke seriously, I'm getting the same sort of vibe here. In post 348 they reinforce the "town shouldn't go out of their way to be suspicious" idea which I find town

So I agreed early on that the start was pretty town. Especially coming from a new/less experienced player, this type of mindset is really common. Honestly, there are two explanations I've thought of that kind of contradict. My working assumption that I've used to just kind of shove aside the start as secondary has been that floo is actually quite skilled/experienced and just faked it. Thinking more on it, while that's true, I think they definitely have shown they're still adapting to the forum format too. The careful posting, the disappearing for vast periods, etc. are much more typical during your first forum games. Now I think it's more likely that they do the same thing as town too and just assumed everyone else has the same fear. Chat players definitely are always concerned about their appearance like this: You realize pretty quickly as town that faking some appearance things brings more success than 100% honesty, as much as I always resented that. I think the post you quote next, 438, reinforces this. I think it's either town or NAI entirely rather than floo going out of their way to fake something common among new players.

I don't really want to NK spec N1 but I don't think Esoteric was really in danger of getting voted even w/ the Enchant flip. I think the only person really pushing that by the EoD was Spartan.

I found their push overall towny, it does have a few lows, however. Reading it back it is sounding mildly tunnely since they are talking about salsa 90% of their early posts, not that I find that suspicious.

The emotional push could go either way as Town determination or Mafia emotional shutdown.

I had to skim the latter half of their posts and nothing stood out.

Overall I still find floo town

I'm unclear if the bolded is about floo or Salsabil but my guess is the latter. My entire point is I don't think floo has given the former any chance of being correct at all. He pushed the emotions/dismissiveness as scummy, then actively tried to bait more of them to push on. I don't think they were scummy to begin with, but even if you think they are it's not clear at all what he expected Salsabil to do if she were town and those emotions legitimate. His mind was already made up. Replacement showing them real regardless of alignment did not phase him.

[fairyprincess69]

Sorry shadow slug is me. When is deadline? Spartan would be my hammer but I’m not fully caught up yet

[Prism]

Deadline's in ~11 hours, midnight EST.

[Prism]

Not panic accusatory at all, are you scared your scum buddy has a couple votes on them?

Respectfully, I think you're proving my point here. Take a step back and evaluate the slots individually before you group together like this. Do you think I, as an individual slot, am scum?

I don't know the solution to this puzzle I am trying to view all possible scenarios that make sense to me, a Prism/(Sal/Fairy) is also included in that in my view. floo is a stronger town read for me atm and how you are going at them defending a potential Sal teamate (or using the sal V floo situation) looks a bit opportunistic, I don't see a floo/Prism team at all, my concern is on the possibility it is TvT and we have an imposter team of two from Quiet/Fredrick/FlowTrap/Fairy hmm I feel like I'm the opposite of Quiet where I'm sussing everyone where he town reads everyone.

This again feels like you're trying way too hard to pick the specific team. The only townread you have-floo-I have the exact opposite read on.

Engaging with your case on quiet, 1319, it is unclear to me exactly why the quiet slot is an especially good vote. You're asking him to justify a lot of his townreas/statements, but he's already explained several of them repeatedly. The crux of it seems to be that you don't like that he has that many townreads. As far as I can tell you haven't taken issue with any of them specifically except for Frederick, who I don't think Quiet actually townreads. There's a world in which quiet is scum and is just townreading everyone, yeah. There's also a world where he's just town and wrong on one.

[Prism]

Sorry shadow slug is me. When is deadline? Spartan would be my hammer but I’m not fully caught up yet

Definitely have the votes for it if I'm onboard, will review the slot. Anything in particular you want to point out? I'll check out the post about him letting me go wild on Frederick before I ISO.

[Prism]

Also, fairy, you're currently voting quiet. I don't know if you're waiting until you finish catching up but I Don't Like That Vote Please Stop

[quiet]

@Quiet who's flip do you think provides us with the most information?

Any of myself, floo, you who I currently see as the highest likelihood elims give more info than Fred atm. Frankly, anyone that people can’t handwave as “well, they were just not posting a lot and were playing kinda scummy, what was I supposed to do?”. I’m not sure who gives exactly the most mechanical info, but...idk tough question.

[quiet]

this is phenomenally townie imo. unvotes when there was surely momentum for a hammer with the intent to keep a potentially useful conversation going. noting this here as i think it's relevant with an Enchant town flip and to see if anyone else will pick up on it later on.

Hi fairy, loving your addition to the thread so far! Plan to respond to more of your stuff.

I’m not exactly positive that this is as towny as you are saying. I could get sold on that I think, but the other option is that it’s informed scum hopping off the wagon to look good. Frankly, at least from my perspective, I don’t think I’m a good enough player to hop off someone’s wagon after they think they get hammered and then claim mafia goon. From the moment that happened, town is going to eliminate them, especially after they say they want to just die. If floo is scum, does ending the day later actually hurt him in any way? The rest of that day was derailed by discussion about Enchant, do not very concerning.

That being said, you are right in the waiting for discussion is a +town reason to hop off the wagon. I really, really wanted to talk myself into locking Enchant as town, but over the course of the rest of the day, I couldn’t see a world where I would trust that read all the way to ElLo, and they were never, ever getting NKed after that stunt. I’d have to think more if floo is towny for that interaction.

It’s also one of the few interactions that felt real-time, as opposed to the general more careful pace.

Idk.

[Prism]

Thinking more on NK spec I actually don't think Spartan kills Esoteric here? Arguably they shot for PR reads/their partner forcing it but all of Day 1 for a scum Spartan revolves around pushing Esoteric the second Enchant flips town. 1047 is not worth it at all.

I don't really scumread this slot and it's an absolute disaster if it flips town, not really a fan atm. Still working through.

[quiet]

I'm scumreading floo based off of how he pushed Sal and how he reacted to what he got. This does kind of require the Salsabil slot to be town and have a town reaction but my whole point here is that it felt like floo was working backwards from a desired answer of Salsabil scum rather than coming to it organically. This is one of the few tells I put a lot of faith in and have a good track record on.

I think this is fairly compelling to me. The other thing that pinged me about floo was that his original case on Salsabill came after I raised a similar concern in a MUCH quieter way. It would be a good place for scum to jump on a wagon I’d started, and maybe where floo derived his “solution” from.

Also, on mobile so can’t quote, but I’m still waiting for a good floo explanation for his logic related to his metadive on Salsa. Floo made it seem as if the metadive showed a difference between Salsa’s play here and her play in town games, but from what I could tell of his description, and briefly checking his work, the play was very similar to town games. In the thread, he presented it as if there were major discrepancies, and I never got an explanation or clarification despite asking. This would speak to starting at an answer and working backwards.

I would summarize Floo’s play as high effort, detailed breakdown posts posing arguments, not as interactions with people really, with a couple rare exceptions, like floo jumping off the Enchant wagon, which I could absolutely see as +town. I think a number of people have asked floo to jump in and chat for a bit more causally, but it doesn’t really seem like something floo is interested in doing; I just don’t know how AI that is vs. a playstyle.