Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[Prism]

@Fairy Can you be more specific as to what you're seeing on Spartan/not in floo? Last post of yours had Spartan town, what changed?

[Prism]

I really hope quiet is just letting me singlehandedly lose the game lmfao, would not be the first time

[floo]

find this post (1005) weird because it's essentially an indictment of Frederick, not of Enchant. the language he uses here ("if Enchant is Mafia, they are playing very poorly.") ("Enchant would probably not be hammered soon")("I want an Enchant vote, even just for the information.") seems to imply Enchant is a townlean overall, and he's only scum in relation to Frederick. why he doesn't just make a case on and push Fred i'm not sure. It also makes no sense for Fred to be partnered with Enchant here - he's completely AWOL from the thread and would likely be targeted tomorrow if Enchant was his scum partner. but i can see that as being a difference of opinion since EZ thought the same thing. we can see from 1014 that Enchant really is a scumread, so why all the psuedo-defending in 1005? why not jsut say yes i think this guy is mafia and we should vote him?

im pretty sure this read is a load of crap by me since it's nearly 6am and i can barely think straight but i just wanted to get something out on floo

My point is Enchant is a forced vote on D1/D2, and if Enchant flips Mafia Fredrick is the probable partner. Enchant is mildly scummy but not certain Mafia. Fredrick is still suspicious if Enchant flips Town, though I would look into other players.

A takeaway from the wagon is what scum did instead. There's little to be gained in being another Enchant pusher, far more to gain in setting pushes on other players.

[Prism]

Like Day 1 I had the irrational fear that quiet were doing exactly what I would as scum-try to powertown with immediate thoughts/content and worry about progressions later-but literally every player I have thought this about ever has flipped town (for a total of 4), and if gambler's fallacy bites me this is going to own.

[quiet]

Not panic accusatory at all, are you scared your scum buddy has a couple votes on them?

At first these posts rubbed me the wrong way, but I think it might just be a perspective thing.

Spartian, do you feel like scum hard defends other scum in the thread with high frequency? Because in my experience, uh, they just don’t.

Maybe someone else can chime in and tell me that scum actually does hard defend in thread like this. I just struggle to see why in a scumQuiet world, scumPrism would defend here. Or in a scumFred world, scumQuiet starts the day saying yeah so I’m totally unwilling to vote my scumbuddy because they’re my scumbuddy thank you.

Better just to start a competing wagon and give good reasons for it, no? Those wagons do exist.

[Prism]

hi floo

who are your top vote candidates atm, do you still scumread fairy?

[Prism]

Maybe someone else can chime in and tell me that scum actually does hard defend in thread like this.

I do, it's one of the scum alignment's best kept secrets, but in general players are really afraid of it. If you harddefend a scum slot it's pretty easy to play the VI role and come away looking town for it.

I was worried Spartan was defending Enchant hoping for that but then Enchant flipped town, so I mean.

[quiet]

I really hope quiet is just letting me singlehandedly lose the game lmfao, would not be the first time

Oh I’m right here with you, there will be many hands losing this game if it goes that way.

And please post some speculation on what flip might mean for partners/legacy reads tonight ty

[quiet]

Floo! Also if you could give some context to your salsa metadive, and yes gut feel on fairy.

[Prism]

I dunno if I'd call it worried actually, but I THOUGHT ABOUT IT

I really don't like to do preflips but I'll try later, are you talking about a specific player or just anyone that's on the table?

[Prism]

Eh these TvS and scum on the wagon comments are still really questionable

Maybe maybe

[floo]

Alright, I'm up and moving, making some coffee and then circling back.

Where are people at atm? Who are you willing to vote? We can't have the game go dead right before deadline. I'd be willing to compromise on Frederick if I have to, but I'm not really thrilled about it esp. since he's voting floo.

How are you on spartan?

I don't recognize this slot and CTRL+F isn't helping me either, anyone can explain?

[Prism]

I agree that is true but I don't see why he is even somewhat vindicated when he was being scumread before them interactions occurred, Floo how do you feel about Prism? Would you be willing to join a wagon on them today?

I forgot how much I hated this post.

Spartan, why was I specified here? When I asked you gave me 1047 which is talking about your read on flow trap over explaining why you were suddenly interested in a vote on me here

[Prism]

Floo, it's a fairy alternate account. Technically alts aren't allowed to play as Newbies but they're allowed as replacements, looking around there are other issues but I'd rather not sidetrack the game with a rules discussion. Fferyllt/PenguinPower can sort it out. They're likely to be more experienced than I thought/have a stronger scumgame but their posts have been fine and Salsabil is still unlikely imo.

Can you give us an update on your reads atm?

[quiet]

I don't recognize this slot and CTRL+F isn't helping me either, anyone can explain?

This is a Fairy alt account. Just treat it like Fairy.

[quiet]

They're likely to be more experienced than I thought/have a stronger scumgame but their posts have been fine and Salsabil is still unlikely imo.

Oh god please I don’t need that additional paranoia in my life.

Prism, the slots you would entertain today are...floo, Spartian, Fred? As things stand right this second.

[floo]

hi floo

who are your top vote candidates atm, do you still scumread fairy?

Still scumleaning fairy. Fredrick vote is forced later in the game; how Fredrick eventually votes will inform my final read going from null to an outright scumread.

Thinking about Spartan and Prism. Reasons to scumread Spartan might include avoiding Enchant and pushing Fredrick without thought for other players, and I will think about this.

Prism looks really bad if I'm voted out today. I think Prism being scum only makes sense if Fairy is scum though. I'm not scumleaning Prism atm, but I find that becoming more annoyed, stressed, and determined on single-handedly saving the town creates a good excuse for leading a miselim.

[Prism]

Prism, the slots you would entertain today are...floo, Spartian, Fred? As things stand right this second.

floo->Clown fiesta don't no elim lmao

Gun to my head I'd go floo->Spartan->Frederick->flow trap but I honestly think Spartan would flip town here so ???

[Prism]

Prism looks really bad if I'm voted out today. I think Prism being scum only makes sense if Fairy is scum though. I'm not scumleaning Prism atm, but I find that becoming more annoyed, stressed, and determined on single-handedly saving the town creates a good excuse for leading a miselim.

yet annoyance/stress were not plausibly town for Salsabil lmao

FWIW I definitely put too much pressure on myself as town, but I 100% just AFK and let the deadline do the work for me here as scum.

[quiet]

So who is letting you drive a miselim in a townFloo world then?

FlowTrap? Fred (that’s not precisely fair). Like, who is watching this happen?

[fairyprincess69]

@Fairy Can you be more specific as to what you're seeing on Spartan/not in floo? Last post of yours had Spartan town, what changed?

i thought his treatment of EZ was scummy in that EZ's massive wallpost did nothing to change spartan's read of him. he didn't really engage with many of the reads made in that post. he eventually downplays his fos on EZ (which coincides with other people townreading EZ at this point) and focuses on Fred. i don't think he really tries to get fred voted out at this point though. his defense of Enchant is a townlean for me, but only because it's consistent with his earlier townread on enchant. but after dropping a townread on Enchant and his thoughts on fred, he pretty much dips out of the thread and lets the wagon happen without much resistance.

[quiet]

finding quiet continually positing town[enchant] theories but not willing to unvote or provide another name to be slightly obnoxious

On the topic of this + positing the locktown enchant or elim thing:

What other name was there day1? It’s practically RVS and enchant dominated the discussion from the moment I replaced in. From my perspective, and I stand by this, in that circumstance you have literally two options: locktown and don’t second guess as much as scum will try to get you to, or if you fear that you might waver on that, then elim with extreme prejudice. It’s a polarizing spot where they have to be either exactly scum or exactly town, and frankly, I wasn’t ready to gamble the rest of the game on them being town and never rethinking that read.

Who else would you have elimmed day1?

[floo]

Floo! Also if you could give some context to your salsa metadive, and yes gut feel on fairy.

I was only able to look at one game because the other games looked like they're ongoing.

fairy (not Sal) actually gut leans town for a "contribution," longer posts playstyle. I know from experience this isn't a good gut-sponsored reason for a townread - I've filtered it out of my logical analysis. I'd need to look at how fairy finalizes his reads; in other words, too early to actually read this regardless of what an inaccurate gut impulse says. That means I "still scumlean fairy" for Sal's posts.

To explain past posts: I might be hypothetically inclined to townlean someone who is hard pushing town me in situations where it's not worth it for scum to lynch me in exchange for lots of suspicion. I think it's worth leading a lynch on me if played correctly to make an excuse - 5P LYLO is hard for town to win (as all 3 towns need a correct consensus).

[Prism]

So who is letting you drive a miselim in a townFloo world then?

If floo is town I am fucked LOL

Hypothetically, any of the 5 of you are honestly on the table? Salsabil's emotions being real don't necessarily mean she was town, you are 100% letting me piledrive the game into a loss if you're scum, Spartan would be whiteknighting the town slot and openly fished earlier to see if he could wagon me, flow trap is doing the same but less forcefully, Frederick is Frederick and just wants to avoid an elim as scum.

[quiet]

I also prefixed the locktown thing as a very likely bad idea.

I just don’t think I’m that confident in my reads to make that poker call, basically. Townlocking Enchant there would be an exploitative play. If I did that when faced with that same circumstance repeatedly, I end up losing a lot more than winning. I don’t know how/if I’m ever able to get away from an Enchant elim in that spot, but I really like to think that I was close to. Just, not close enough to take that gamble, not without a good target. Maybe I should have considered Fred there, but Fred was seen as a decent enchant partner, so at that point why not just elim enchant?