Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[petapan]

If I were looking for that, I'd look for a /universal scumread/, one with absolutely no one arguing against it. Especially one that was debated for awhile, then brought to the table by multiple players only AFTER a failed attempt to get scumreads off of other players (possibly multiple people trying to salvage the same slot, though not necessarily). Hey, just had an idea, maybe looking into that is something petapan can do. You know, so he doesn't have to worry about being accused of /not doing anything/.

i'm already on it, actually

[Imperium]

Peta 1199 disappoints me.

like on the one hand I'm not unsympathetic to the way you're feeling. Tenet happened, and I noticed a shift in your demeanor in that game and i got a bit paranoid of you after I died because some things you said just hit wrong, but on the other hand, that response makes me sad. And maybe partly it's the italicized sorry's which makes me sad there. Gonna step away.

[Imperium]

partly hope it's scum theater

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I'm out for the day. Petapan, I was going to walk my shit back, because after I got it out I recognized it maybe was a bit too much. But you turned it into some fucking self-importance accusation. Self-importance. I'm fucking /homeless/. Nope, changed my mind, you can choke on my bile.

Anyone else needs me, tough shit, direct your questions and complaints at petapan. If you wanna give me scumreads and shit, I don't rightly care at all. I trust the gunbearer to not shoot me right now, and clearly I'm too full of myself to be "doing anything", so town can scumhunt without me until such time as I have the time and energy to contribute to petapan's high standards.

[petapan]

god i'm just going to stop, i'm pissed off and not in the right mental state to be posting and don't want to continue this. this isn't what i want out of games

[SirCakez]

Because I just find it odd how much you're defending me when you usually suspect me if anything

I don't feel this is true?

Xeno 2 I tried to give you a life raft (incorrectly)
Fake Peoples I townread you (correctly)
And then some other games not worth talking about

fair enough

[SirCakez]

Mush and Peta should walk it off and move on

[petapan]

i really meant no offense toward what you're dealing with mus. sorry

[ScrewTheTells]

Not_Mafia as your strongest scumread? Why?

I don't understand why you'd ask this, I wrote it in the post you're referencing. Not_mafia's behaviour, as well as the general lack of interest towards him, is very well explained by him being scum. Compared to my other suspects, like Norfolk, there's always the chance that I'm just misreading their actions. There's a larger danger of being lost in WIFOM possibility-space. Whereas there isn't really any WIFOM when Not_mafia is being anti-town. The only possibilities are him being scum and him being an anti-town-town, which admittedly is what trolling is, but that's something we can work with. Is he trolling too much to be likely town? What about other player's reactions? That's how I came to this conclusion.

Also, does it really matter? There's 5 scum on that list. We just have to filter most of them to the bottom and take a shot. No need to be hung up on minute differences when it's likely they're all scum even if you swapped places of the bottom scum reads. That's kind of nitpicking for no good reason don't you think?

Other then Mush I like your stack a lot STT

Yeah you know what, I've been thinking that the big difference between Imperium and MUSH is that MUSH's more committed in every push, even if they mostly agree on where to push. Imperium can't even come up with a stack list and can't pin down a top shot after they declared me and unwnd no longer top shots. (MUSH, I believe, has Cakez as her top shot.) I think that's more likely to be scum thinking. Town don't usually change their mind on a suspect unless they find a different angle to see the game, and they suddenly think some OTHER person is scum. So their top suspect can be replaced but rarely become a vacant seat. So I'd probably put Imperium as scummier than MUSH now that I think about it.

So! Pressure first, then admitting Norfolk might be a bad shot in this gamestate as that argument becomes increasingly obvious, then deflecting /implied/ critique from Imperium that isn't even outright stated in the post quotes, giving a complete non-answer to a riddle I posed about him to /someone else/, and then out of here. Like a shot. No sticking around for interactions, just in and out, quick and clean.

This is actually kind of convincing because the facts are there. Too bad I didn't see it myself first so now I'm suspicious of confirmation bias. I admit I don't have the time to do timestamp analysis like this.

I think scum are trying to direct my shot to someone who will shoot the gf.

Well before I try that I'll just say this: I think at face value this sounds unlikely. There are too many steps required for that read to work out. First you'd have to be correct on who you think you're being directed to shoot, and then you'd need to be correct in predicting who the scum think that person will shoot, and then you have to be correct in predicting that final target is not just any scum but a GF. How do people even read GFs differently than generic scum anyway? I certainly don't, but maybe that's a lack of experience with the setup. I mean I would just prefer to focus on who is trying to get you to shoot a particular target with ulterior motives. That sounds more reliable. But your theory sure sounds intriguing so I'll come back to this after I re-read to see if I can pick up anything.

STT i still have questions for i'm not gonna pronounce a verdict just yet but them having me as toptown almost immediately is ???

Um, I just double checked your posts and didn't find any outstanding questions for me. You don't like me reading you as toptown? You wanna tell me why you're scum? Please by all means.

Just saw Imperium's #1192 wall in the preview. Gonna skip that for now so I don't add a wall to this wall and make it impossible to read anything.

And yeahhh please lets drop the fight about emotional appeals or whatever. I care about this game, but not enough to ruin someone's day over it. For my part I regret bringing up MUSH's circumstances in the post Imperium was talking about. When I wrote it I didn't think it was bad because I thought I was clear that I was reading into it as a meta thing, so the issue itself shouldn't trigger any feelings. I didn't think the risk was enough to pretend that I didn't have the thought, so I said it. Maybe that's also the page petapan was on when he lashed out against the alleged AtE. I forgot that I was more of a bayesian-bot than most humans, as have been pointed out. People probably can't simply not think about it when it's brought up. So if I crossed a line there, I apologize.

[Imperium]

Yeah that’s not even close to right stt. Changing my mind on reads is just who I am, who we are.

4am this morning I said unwnd is no longer at the bottom. And I said today that tomorrow when nacho gets home from work I hat wee be putting together our list. I personally don’t do rack and stack, he does and that will come tomorrow. He works extremely long and varied hours, we haven’t had a chance to talk much. We do have people we’d like shot; we’ll talk about it tomorrow.

[Imperium]

But you can imagine pulling the names from the bottom means the names closest to the bottom usually fall down.

(Probable trailer for that rack and stack coming tomorrow stay tuned.)

[Syryana]

Norfolk Boy1 has been prodded.

[Imperium]

so, on entry into the game, didn't like cakez, kind of got nervous because he seemed to be preemptively discrediting me in the way i'd expect scum to, reading along i felt like his tunnel on imperium was heading into irrational territory, the way i expect scum doing a shitpush to behave, but as i'm reading, i start to see him make posts i'm not sure he makes as scum, stuff that just feels very believable to me (599 and 857 stick out. i know neither of these are outside his capacity to fake as scum but i just don't think he

would

bother to make them and the way they are written looks genuine), and i start wondering if my initial assumption was wrong


and imperium, well, i liked what they were doing, posts made sense, in particuar the way they were trying to draw content out of norfolk and get him to talk rather than just calling for his head, the way they reacted to cakez tunneling them by assuming he was just misguided town, that's typically an approach town takes to being tunneled and not as common from scum

but, like, i had this paranoid flash and flipped everything and started tinfoiling a world where it's an imperium/norfolk team, the way they reacted to the early pressure on norflok, the thing where they kept trying to speak to him realtime, it suddenly reminded me of what i did with midwaybear in my recent scumgame, had an scumbuddy that was lacking in confidence but i didn't want to just throw him under the bus, i made a point of questioning him and interacting with him in real time to try to get him into the game and give him practice explaining himself as scum, while also making people think we weren't teamed. and that's kind of the vibe i started getting from them makin such a deliberate point of wanting a back and forth with him, like they wanted to dance but he had two left feet and couldn't answer him so they just sort of have to scumread him, and that sort orf meshes with them talking about how the people who were pushing him early might be scum, like they might be setting up to call them bussers when he flips

and it also occurred to me that, tactically, OMGUSing cakez is a terrible move in the world where imperium is scum and cakez is town because it gets them nowhere. like, if they're scum their goal here is to endgame and cakez is basically the only one likely to shoot them so they'd

have

to discourage a cakez shot, at least right now, and from that perspective, the whole read there starts looking very political and ingenuine, and they're one of maybe a couple people in this game i'd expect to be thinking that way about who they call to get shot

to be clear

i'm not advocating imperium get shot right now, i would shoot norfolk before them every time and only consider them after a norfolk red flip, but that's my little paranoid theory right now

my early assumption about norfolk was that he was just the lazy "consensus scum" pick but now i'm seeing a lot of people flot him as scum but not have him at the bottom of their readlists which is always a big warning sign, when a bunch of people are going "yeah he's scummy BUT how about so-and-so..." that tells you there are people who don't

really

want him shot which is a pretty strong sign just by gamestate that he's scum

So let’s talk about why I dislike this. It feels one part cherry picking other part cobbling together things that have already been said in thread by me, cakez, and stt as a means of bolstering cakez scum read and setting us up for a game losing shot. I have a very very hard time believing this comes from a scum you.

So first paragraph you talk about how you first envisioned cakez but then started thinking he was town due to some things he posted. Why don’t you then consider that may be my very position. I was convinced cakez was scum until he made some genuine sounding posts and I thought about the way he reacted to being pushed by Cabd in xeno. I was the one who started with a scum read on him, he misrepped me, we argued and in the midst of that argument I stated to doubt the scumread.

I do not like at all that you aren’t advocating for me to be shot because I think that if this were really a paranoid theory you have, it should be extended. Let’s just forget for the moment that I already made this case on myself. Cakez accused me of posturing to look good no matter the flip, but I disagreed because I look terrible no matter what, I already made the case on myself that if Norfolk flips scum, I look like his partner that was trying to save him. It doesn’t make sense to me that you go from seeing my point to jumping to the opposite view without considering the whole.

I think if you’re truly paranoid, you think no matter Norfolk’s alignment, I’m setting myself up to push others. If he’s scum, I’m setting myself up to go after the bussers. If he’s town, I’m setting myself up to push his attackers. I think either way you’d be paranoid, not just if he were scum. You mention two points where you think we’d be planning. You compare us to you with midway trying to coach the newbie into interacting (you missed that our read started trending scum by that point I think, and nacho thought he was a good shot.), You also talk about us thinking about the shit, so you clearly presenting us as competent scum.

So quite frankly wouldn’t you want us shot first?

But you treat us as competent and incompetent at the same time. I know, because I’m a life long waffler, that waffling on scum just makes people suspect you’re their partner. I’ve been investigated for waffling on someone who flipped red. So if I had this agenda as you theorize why would I do it in the way that makes me look as shitty and suspicious as possible? This is not to say that I don’t accidentally waffle, people have caught me off guard as scum, but this would have been a premeditated plan, and you’re suggesting I did it in the worst way possible on purpose. Either I’m competent or incompetent.

You u mention our goal is to endgame, but we haven’t played a way that would actually get us there as scum. If we’re scum we gave the gun to Netflix knowing we’d very likely get shot if nothing else due to paranoia that we gave them the gun. (This is not saying we wouldn’t give them the gun, nachohas said we would have). But giving them the gun means that we were willing to go down first and would have had a plan that didn’t endanger our partners, which crap Norfolk would have been shot next probably due to my theory.

I’m not perfect as scum and I’m not saying I don’t make mistakes. I have quite a shit scum game, but you wanna know what spending the first three years of getting lynched immediately as scum taught me? That if I was going to get eliminated right away the very least I could do for my team is figure out a way to not drag them down when I flip. I’ve come a long way from that point in time; I can make it past day one now and I have made it and won in Lylo. But I will probably always and forever be that girl who got suspected and eliminated first thing. It’s how I always feel, and the first thing I always tell my team is to bus me if I start to arouse suspicion because I can’t fight against it. And I still always think the greatest contribution I can give my team is to not drag them down with me.

You can believe that or not, remember if for future games because it’s absolutely how I feel. If I were scum here, norfolk is more likely town and I did that to make him look bad upon my flip which I’d have been expecting to happen day one.

I can understand the suspicion if Norfolk flips scum because that’s standard suspicion but I expect you to look more deeply than you have. This feels like a setup for when Norfolk flips scum, which I expect him to. And I feel like with this case you broke cover.

I was also a bit squicked by you asking me what concrete things I’ve done. You’ve played with me recently, you saw me waffling and changing reads then going back to them in smoke. And maybe I haven’t been super concrete, and I wouldn’t expect you to expect me to, nacho has. It just felt like you were trying to look like you were scumhunting me but superficially, and it’s what I don’t like about your mush push and interaction. You keep pushing on what she’s done, and it feels wrong and not like the way I saw you read people in front or smoke. (The only pause I have here is that you interacted with ffery by telling her in order to get lld off of her she has to find scum or get confirmed town, and that hit wrong when I read it so I’m just wondering if you’re use in a weird space and reading things and interacting unlike I’d expect you to.)

Just if you’re town can you show me that town peta magic. 5 of you are town and 5 of you are scum, and I have people I’m more ready to read town than you, and if you’re town then one of those is wrong.

[Imperium]

I think my most salient point there is that if you really suspect my early treatment of Norfolk as me being scum preparing to push people for bussing early that you should also suspect me for being scum preparing to push people for attacking town, which would make me scum no matter what, think you should be advocating for my shot no matter what, and not just if Norfolk flips scum.

Think that shows you know what Norfolk will flip, so you tied me to him through only part of it. Whereas I think town you with paranoia would be paranoid of the whole.

It’s the most salient to me anyway.

[unwnd]

5 of you are town and 5 of you are scum

Cakez Tammycho unwnd RLotus MUSH (VACANT)

--Null void--
Peta
STT
N_M
--Null void--

Duchess Dunnstral Whemestar Norfolk (VACANT)

What I'm wokring with right now form a pure PoE standpoint

[unwnd]

I kinda think shooting in the null void would be great in that sense? If I think about it. Killing outside of it just means another spot is vacant if my visual makes sense.

[unwnd]

I don't count RLotus as 5 but he's there cause he has the gun and is town, ftr

Knowing myself I can be wrong about one of my townreads, but shooting into my null allows me to throw some people into the void or mess around with the order

[WhemeStar]

5 of you are town and 5 of you are scum

Cakez Tammycho unwnd RLotus MUSH (VACANT)

--Null void--
Peta
STT
N_M
--Null void--

Duchess Dunnstral Whemestar Norfolk (VACANT)

What I'm wokring with right now form a pure PoE standpoint

This is such a lazy scum team and makes me think you are scum

[unwnd]

You spend a lot of time running your mouth but have no reason to do it

[Dunnstral]

You spend a lot of time running your mouth but have no reason to do it

This aggression comes from scum

Town unwnd doesn't play like this, they're much more analytical, here they throw people in a scum pile and call it good

[unwnd]

I think you've made a caricature out of my behavior, I have sailor mouth and relent some of my frustration through tacit response all the fucking time

[Not_Mafia]

Is that how you unwind?

[unwnd]

I laughed but you still remain in my null void

[RLotus]

Dunn, what would you say your most preferred shot/shots are at the moment?

[Dunnstral]

Dunn, what would you say your most preferred shot/shots are at the moment?

Right now, still Norfolk. I think we need to get rid of slanker scum slots, this slot has been scummy independent of activity, and the only defense is activity