TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[DrippingGoofball]

ladys frustration with Mastina comes off townie to me

why

[mastina]

with regards to bop
has a BoP ever been legitimately carried out? genuinely curious lol

Maybe in like the 2009-2011 era in like .01% of games.

But in general?

Yeah, it doesn't happen.

In this game in particular tho: it'd be almost impossible to give everyone who is a competent scumhunter a 'chance' to catch scum.
The list of players who I'd say could maybe, maybe, MAYBE not be included as "competent scumhunters who deserve the chance/'chance' to catch scum" is incredibly small:
MAYBE innocentvillager (tho IV's town here anyway, thus, not on the table); AGar; directly-Xtoxm (tho indirectly, Auro is in the list of competent scumhunters deserving the chance to catch scum and Xtoxm is Auro's proxy); Winter Flakes/Uncrowned; hercule; Cephrir; Ythan.

5-7 players, of 18, who can't use the "give me a chance to catch scum, and if I haven't, THEN and only then you can poe me".

That means of the 11-13 other players...literally all of them can use LLD's defense. "Don't eliminate me on D1. Give me a chance to catch scum. And if I don't within X days, then you can burden of proficiency me."
Titus can use that excuse; I could use that excuse; Auro through Xtoxm could use that excuse; Dannflor can use that excuse; the worst can use that excuse; OkaPoka and co can use that excuse; DGB can use that excuse; jjh can use that excuse; Almost50 can use that excuse; Dunnstral can use that excuse; LLD can and IS using that excuse.

At some point, you gotta accept that on D1, in order to actually eliminate scum, you're going to need to take a risk of depriving the town of a good scumhunter if the scumread is wrong. Because in those 11-13 players who are good scumhunters that deserve the chance to catch scum if they're town, there's going to be 1-4 scum (and I posit all four are, indeed, inside that group most likely).

There's 11-13 players who, if eliminated on D1 as town, deprive the town of a good scumhunter, but if those 11-13 players contain all four of the scum within them, it is still optimal to take that risk of eliminating a good scumhunter, so that the D1 elimination has a chance of landing on a player who is actually scum.

If we play safe and let every good scumhunter have a chance at catching scum on D1, then the D1 elimination will 100% guaranteed be on town.

I'd rather take a risk of eliminating a good scumhunter for the reward of potentially eliminating scum, than not take a risk of eliminating a good scumhunter for the 'reward' of a guarantee of eliminating town.

[implosion]

3

Three is the only prime which is one less than a perfect square. Any other number which is n² − 1 for some integer n is not prime, since it is (n − 1)(n + 1). This is true for 3 as well (with n = 2), but in this case the smaller factor is 1. If n is greater than 2, both n − 1 and n + 1 are greater than 1 so their product is not prime.

Vote Count 1.3

hercule

(5): Lady Lambdadelta, innocentvillager, Ythan, OkaPoka, the worst

Xtoxm

(2): hercule, Dunnstral

innocentvillager

(2): DrippingGoofball, Almost50

Almost50

(2): Hopkirk, Dannflor

Dannflor

(2): Cephrir, mastina

the worst

(1): jjh927

DrippingGoofball

(1): Xtoxm

Not Voting

(3): Titus, Winter Flakes, AGar

With 18 alive, it takes 10 votes to eliminate. Deadline is set for 11:00 AM PST on February 12, in (expired on 2021-02-12 15:00:00).

[mastina]

with regards to bop
has a BoP ever been legitimately carried out? genuinely curious lol

Maybe in like the 2009-2011 era in like .01% of games.

But in general?

Yeah, it doesn't happen.

In this game in particular tho: it'd be almost impossible to give everyone who is a competent scumhunter a 'chance' to catch scum.
The list of players who I'd say could maybe, maybe, MAYBE not be included as "competent scumhunters who deserve the chance/'chance' to catch scum" is incredibly small:
MAYBE innocentvillager (tho IV's town here anyway, thus, not on the table); AGar; directly-Xtoxm (tho indirectly, Auro is in the list of competent scumhunters deserving the chance to catch scum and Xtoxm is Auro's proxy); Winter Flakes/Uncrowned; hercule; Cephrir; Ythan.

5-7 players, of 18, who can't use the "give me a chance to catch scum, and if I haven't, THEN and only then you can poe me".

That means of the 11-13 other players...literally all of them can use LLD's defense. "Don't eliminate me on D1. Give me a chance to catch scum. And if I don't within X days, then you can burden of proficiency me."
Titus can use that excuse; I could use that excuse; Auro through Xtoxm could use that excuse; Dannflor can use that excuse; the worst can use that excuse; OkaPoka and co can use that excuse; DGB can use that excuse; jjh can use that excuse; Almost50 can use that excuse; Dunnstral can use that excuse; LLD can and IS using that excuse.

At some point, you gotta accept that on D1, in order to actually eliminate scum, you're going to need to take a risk of depriving the town of a good scumhunter if the scumread is wrong. Because in those 11-13 players who are good scumhunters that deserve the chance to catch scum if they're town, there's going to be 1-4 scum (and I posit all four are, indeed, inside that group most likely).

There's 11-13 players who, if eliminated on D1 as town, deprive the town of a good scumhunter, but if those 11-13 players contain all four of the scum within them, it is still optimal to take that risk of eliminating a good scumhunter, so that the D1 elimination has a chance of landing on a player who is actually scum.

If we play safe and let every good scumhunter have a chance at catching scum on D1, then the D1 elimination will 100% guaranteed be on town.

I'd rather take a risk of eliminating a good scumhunter for the reward of potentially eliminating scum, than not take a risk of eliminating a good scumhunter for the 'reward' of a guarantee of eliminating town.

Basically, let me summarize the possible outcomes for today:

1. We eliminate a player who doesn't have a longstanding reputation as an incredibly strong, often fairly solvey, town player. They flip scum.
   This is optimal, but improbable. I'm townreading all of the 5-7 players who fit this criteria. Even if I'm wrong in a townread on one of them, I would expect that grouping to have 0-2 scum, most likely 0-1. Failure is by far the most likely option, leading to...
   
2. We eliminate a player who doesn't have a longstanding reputation as an incredibly strong, often fairly solvey, town player. They flip town.
   D1 is mostly wasted, and the town is at a disadvantage due to all scum being alive. This is by far the most likely option if we refuse to take a risk.
   
3. We eliminate a player with a longstanding reputation as an incredibly strong, often fairly solvey, town player. They flip scum.
   This is a huge net win for us, and is by far the most likely outcome of us scumhunting effectively. The only reason to not aim for this option is because of fear of...
   
4. We eliminate a player with a longstanding reputation as an incredibly strong, often fairly solvey, town player. They flip town.
   This is, indeed, an ultimate feelsbadman moment. HOWEVER...While even if there's 4 scum in the 11-13 players who qualify for this, meaning, statistically speaking, a ~25% chance of hitting scum and ~75% chance of this outcome, that assumes blind elimination within the group. If we scumhunt, we can up this to be in the realm of 50-100% of hitting scum, ensuring that this doesn't happen.

Option one won't happen.
If we refuse to aim for option 3 out of fear of it leading to option 4, we will guarantee option 2 happens.

And I'd rather take the risk of option 4, if the reward is option 3, due to my belief that option 1 won't happen.

[Winter Flakes]

@tw and Dann

nah I think it's more likely to come from town than scum

I think scum would be more inclined to just dismiss it and express a bit of frustration but not go that in depth

[mastina]

I don't think she's really willing to explain her read beyond he looks town so he must be scum

My read isn't that you look town therefore you must be scum.

My read is that you're trying to look town, without actually being town, and that is a scum indicator.

And YOU YOURSELF said that, in fact? You were indeed trying to look town without actually being town:

and partly wanted to go full transparency on what I was thinking

so people town read me

Admitting you were doing it doesn't make it not be a scumtell. You were making posts with the intention of getting people to townread you--something which could come from town, but which I don't think did come from town due to the other stuff, notably the contrast between you this game and last game yet similarity between you and your scumgames, with a side of the thoughts you giving feeling off.

[Winter Flakes]

im offended you dont think winter flakes (alt of uncrowned) categorises as a competent scumhunter

sometimes it's better not to tell the truth, you know?

imma go cry now brb

[mastina]

Like his pop-in / catchup where he quoted a bunch of stuff and responded to people really did nothing for me in differentiating this game from last

Why is it that I the person who out of this playerlist is probably in general bottom 4 in tonereading can tell instantly that hercule's tone is entirely different in his catchup quote wall?

I was

reading

last game's quote walls from hercule--they were, tonally, entirely different from here.

I should not be the one seeing this night and day difference and defending it because tone is not my specialty, and yet even me, mastina, the borderline-tonedeaf person, can see the stark contrast in tone between hercule this game and last game.

Why the fuck aren't people who're toneread scumhunters defending hercule right now?

[OkaPoka]

never tell me mastina doesnt write interesting walls that have a strange addictive quality

i dont think lld being town is a hot take, emotively she seems town enough this game

what are your other takes flakes

[mastina]

But I'm not sure I can explain it.

How about

p

e

r

f

o

r

m

a

t

i

v

e

.

?

Sure, why not?

Dannflor's posts come across as performative--putting on a performance, an act, a show, to look good, rather than genuine sincere solving efforts.

[Dannflor]

I wasn't even voting you, and I wasn't hard-pushing you at the time; why was me, of all people, scumreading you but not pushing you strongly, enough of an irritant?

I think I merged you with Hopkirk

[Titus]

mastina, why in tarnations am I reading AtE from you regarding who we eliminate? I'm not talking about the hercule defense but the options one through four nonsense.

Time to skim.

[Dannflor]

Dann, Agar, what do you two like about xtoxm here?

There was a spot where they were aggressive last game

They're doing the same exact type of posting where they don't acknowledge a lot of what is going on, even stuff directed at them

I don't understand how Auro's read on Hercule makes them town

I like Auro's thoughts here because they are immediately more developed than last game for one. He actually seems invested in the game.

But, more importantly, Auro has reads as town that are really very technical and like... kind of convoluted at times. The word salad xtoxm paraphrased on hercule feels very much like the type of Auro post that got him pushed so hard D1 in the last Team Mafia. The read on Hercule seems to go so many layers deep (whether or not you buy into the actual logic or credibility) in considering what Hercule might be thinking that I think it's unlikely to be faked. I think I'm just going to be repeating myself if I expand anymore here but it feels very distinctly Auro and not in the way any of the paraphrased posts from Auro did in the last game.

[mastina]

sorry fmpov it is difficult to take your reads seriously when you say things like this. it seems likely to me that you are probably overconfident in your reads and way off on the percentages, especially when multiple people have expressed empirical concerns with your reads

The percentages on LLD and Dannflor are accurate.

Both of them are incredibly good scum players that know how to look town incredibly effectively when they are scum; both of them are incredibly good scumhunters who're good at being obvtown when town and charismatic and highly accurate; these two are not mutually exclusive, because as scum they are incredibly good at looking obvtown while being the deepwolf who when scum are charismatic and while their accuracy often is lower, that will be hard to see on D1.

So I get why there's a desire to have them live longer.

But I have made it clear that while they are insanely good as both alignments and the two alignments are 95-99% identical, I feel I actually, legitimately, genuinely, can and have seen the 1-5% subtle differences which mark this as their scumgame, and yes I am 90% confident in being right in this assessment, with the 10% being that I am wrong and that they're town with my markers having been off.

Also, argument to popularity is still a fallacy. People have expressed concern with my reads, sure, but how valid are those concerns? And to some extent, who're the people expressing those concerns for my reads? The players I am scumreading are among the ones who have raised the concerns.

[Winter Flakes]

what are your other takes flakes

I didnt say I have hot takes

my other takes I already said. I think Dann is pretty townie. same with Dunn and IV

Hercule seems a bit showy this game in terms of I guess id say trying to townpost and the approach to me seemed like an attempt to shade even tho my playstyle last early game was also definitely not obvtowny so that was a weird to me

haven't really determined if the "showy" thing is town or scum indicative since I think it can come from either quite easily so ye. id probably say that's a slight early SL of mine overall

most others I've kinda skimmed over

hop seemed a lil pockety from what I remember from my early readthrough

the worst (not the alt of "the best") is playing how i expect town him to so he's a prob town guy but I also don't know if id be capable of scumreading him early game anyway given his style so eh?

a50 was townvibes though I cant remember why

ceph was big meh

idk how i feel about mastina

my takes are ultra bland you'll have to wait for the seasoning my bad

[OkaPoka]

know that im feeling a little tired of doing this but ill say it again

raising concerns about someone's read accuracy is anti good vibes and opens a new dynamic that is not fun to untangle

like nobody will want to read a game about how someone thinks someone else is bad at the game

pedit: ok

[Dannflor]

I think I'm comfortable putting Mastina at least in the Dunnstral category of tentative town. I think by now I've seen enough of her read on me with a clear head to see that it's prooooobably coming from a pretty genuine place. The little differences in my play she's picked up and elements of performativity are indeed there in my posts and I think she genuinely believes that points towards me being scum. It's a tentative read because I think mastina is a skilled enough player to pick up on stuff like that as scum and push it, but the way she's been arguing it strikes me as towny. I would say the fact she hasn't voted me (until recently I think) is town indicative because even though I think she's *deep* in confbias now I think she still wants to or at least wanted to give me the space to show that maybe that 10% of her being wrong was the case.

The only think I really have left to say to you Mastina is that I am performative as town

Hell I'm performative as a fuckingIC

[OkaPoka]

if dannyboi is town ill be sad

not to say i have him as a townread

but there are so few people this game i vibe with ill be sad

remember the good ol days when there were so many vibers - even if two of em were scum

[OkaPoka]

you should always proofread

if dannyboi is scum

xd

[Dannflor]

I was so confused for a moment

[mastina]

MOD:

Vote Count 1.3

the worst

(2): jjh927, mastina

VOTE: Dannflor

Fixed.

i dont think lld being town is a hot take, emotively she seems town enough this game

LLD is literally one of the top five players onsite for being the queen/ruler of emotively seeming town.

Like, uhhhh.

LLD seeming emotively town is VERY much not a towntell for her. Fuck, if she's not lying her ass off, she'd be happy to tell you this herself. I'm talking OF ALL TIME, top five. Not top five active onsite

right now

. Of scummers active onsite, she's probably top one. As in THE top player in emotively appearing town when scum. This is literally a playstyle she was a

pioneer

of. Maybe not the first to use it, and maybe amongst scummers of her generation not the most famous user of it, but by far one of the most consistently prominent users of this strategy.

I can maybe arrange an exercise for you--an equal number of games where LLD was town and scum, with you having an iso of her, to help show this point to you, because without cheating and without advanced knowledge, if you can't pin with any reliability the difference between her towngame and scumgame when both are emotively appearing town, then I think my point will have been made.

I don't care if you think meta is trash; townreading LLD for something that is

literally the worst possible thing to townread her for

is not a good idea, to say the least. You can literally townread LLD for literally anything other than her emotiveness and have that be a better reason to townread her. Because emotiveness is something that LLD pioneered doing as scum. Heck, I think she did it as scum before she did it as town, and found it so effective, that she learned to mimic/adapt it into her townplay, tho I could be mistaken on that.

[Dannflor]

the worst (not the alt of "the best") is playing how i expect town him to so he's a prob town guy but I also don't know if id be capable of scumreading him early game anyway given his style so eh?

can you expand on this? I'm curious how you got this from what little he's actually done

I liked his progression on me but I think he knows me well enough that it wasn't super alignment indicative

[OkaPoka]

don't really know about LLD but ill ask my team about her i guess to verify

they aren't online but maybe ill get some responses about general LLD stuff tmr

[mastina]

mastina, why in tarnations am I reading AtE from you regarding who we eliminate? I'm not talking about the hercule defense but the options one through four nonsense.

I have an iso.

It is less than 40 posts long, and is only barely in the top 50% percentile of the playerlist. (I believe I'm at like 8th highest or so of 18. A spot I may drop down in to like 9th-12th, or may maintain, hard to tell, depends on others as my activity is fairly consistent.)

I'm not going to even attempt a summary given the fairly short nature of the iso.

[Dannflor]

Do you guys think hell is repeating Day 1 of a large over and over again for eternity